213 Miles From Shea

The Mets and Pirates play the rubber game of the series this afternoon at Citi Field. After winning the first game fairly convincingly, the Mets struggled last night and lost 7-4. Brandon Nimmo led the game with a homer, the Pirates responded right away with a run of their own and then the bats fell silent after that until the seventh inning. The Pirates tagged the Mets struggling and overworked bullpen for six runs, the Mets responded with three of their own. Now the Mets and Pirates have identical records heading into the last game of the series.

The Mets bullpen needs a respectable start from Tylor Megill today. Over 17 starts (81 1/3 innings), Megill has a 5.64 ERA, 5.08 FIP, 1.697 WHIP and a 74 ERA+. In his first two starts back with the Mets he has allowed 11 runs, 10 earned, over 10 innings of work (9.00 ERA, 4.97 FIP). The good news is his arm is stretched out. He’s tossed 102 and 84 pitches in both starts, so if he can limit the hits (exactly nine in each start so far), he can give the bullpen the break it needs. Tylor had a disastrous start against the Pirates back when they were in first place in June where he allowed nine runs, seven earned from eight hits and three walks over 3 2/3 innings. The Pirates have the following career numbers against him:

• Bryan Reynolds 2-8
• Ke’Bryan Hayes 5-7, K
• Andrew McCutchen 1-3, 2 K, 2 BB
• Jack Suwinski 0-1, BB
• Josh Palacios 1-3

Johan Oviedo has pitched 136 1/3 innings this year over 24 starts with a 4.42 ERA, 4.28 FIP, 1.306 WHIP and a 102 ERA+. He’s coming off of a rough start against the Reds where he allowed six runs over five innings from five hits and two walks. Before that start he had a stretch of three starts in a row where he posted a 0.90 ERA, 3.02 FIP in 20 innings of work. He was effective against the Mets back in June, holding the Mets to two runs from four hits over 6 1/3 innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Brandon Nimmo 4-6, 2 BB
• Daniel Vogelbach 1-8, K, BB
• Jeff McNeil 1-6, K, 2 BB
• Francisco Lindor 1-5, K, BB
• Pete Alonso 0-4, 2 K, BB
• Rafael Ortega 2-4, 2 2B, K BB
• Francisco Álvarez 0-3
• Tim Locastro 0-2
• Omar Narváez 0-2

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Mets bullpen use. We talked about this yesterday that the Mets would probably need to make a move before the game to get a fresh arm into the pen. Before yesterday’s game Tyson Miller was sent down Butto was brought up. Butto had to put in serious work, tossing 63 pitches. At least Adam Ottavine, Trevor Gott and Phil Bickford were all avoided yesterday, but they each have pitched twice since Saturday. If the Mets don’t make another move before gametime they are really going to need Megill to go deep.
2. Jonathan Araúz. Araúz has gone deep two days in a row now. This season he has gone 4-for-27 at the plate, scoring two runs with five RBI. That means in his last two days he has had 50% of the hits he’s had this season, scored all of the runs he’s scored this season, recorded 60% of his season total of RBI’s. Araúz hot streak?
3. Brandon Nimmo. Brandon Nimmo lead of the game yesterday with his 17th homer of the season, tying his season best. He is now one homer away from a person record and has a very good chance of recording at least 20 on the season. Further Nimmo has now had four games in a row where he has recorded at least two hits. In his last five games he has gone 9-for-18 with a double, two homers and four walks leading to a .500/.591/.889 slash line.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets look to improve to ten games below .500 tonight as they take on the Pirates for game two of their series. The Mets offense was effective last night, scoring six runs on the highly touted prospect Quinn Priester who has a rough start to his major league career. Carlos Carrasco labored through three innings for the Mets which turned into a bullpen game of sorts with the Mets needing five pitchers from the pen to get through the game. Tyson Miller and Sam Coonrod both made their Mets debut and combined allowed a hit and three walks on their way to pitching three scoreless innings. All around, a pretty good night for New York.

David Peterson continues his return to the rotation tonight for the Mets. On the season he has pitched in 19 games with a 5.61 ERA, 4.44 FIP, 1.609 WHIP and a 75 ERA+. Since returning to the rotation he has allowed two runs from five hits over 6 2/3 innings spread across two starts. Most of those numbers occurred in his last start against the Cubs where he allowed two runs from four hits and two walks over 3 2/3 innings. He was able to stretch his arm from 52 pitches to 62 as he continues to work on stamina after a lengthy time in the bullpen. The only two members of the Pirates who have seen Peterson in a major league game are Andrew McCutchen (1-for-11, HR, 3 K, 3 BB) and Bryan Reynolds (0-for-1, K).

The Mets bats will get a look Bailey Falter, who was acquired by the Pirates at the deadline this year for Rodolfo Castro. Overall this year, Falter has pitched in 10 games (48 1/3 innings) with a 5.21 ERA, 5.00 FIP, 1.552 WHIP and an 84 ERA+. In his last two starts as a member of the Pirates he’s allowed five runs over eight innings from 14 hits and three walks (5.63 ERA, 6.39 FIP, 2.125 WHIP, 84 ERA+). The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Francisco Lindor 1-3, 3 BB
• Brandon Nimmo 0-4, 2 K, BB
• Pete Alonso 1-4, HR, BB
• Jeff McNeil 1-4
• Rafael Ortega 0-0, BB

Three Things To Watch For:

1. What does Lindor do next? Francisco Lindor stole his 20th base of the season last night, marking the third time in his career that he’s had a 20-20 season. Lindor (116 OPS+, 4.3 WAR) is having a monster year for the Mets and can still easily reach several personal milestones by the end of the season. He’s only four doubles away from his first 30+ double season since 2019. He’s only five homers away from besting his total from last season.
2. The Mets bullpen and David Peterson. The Mets have made a flurry of bullpen moves over the last couple of days thanks to their doubleheader on Saturday. Unless the Mets make an additional move before today’s game, every member of the bullpen has pitched over the last two games. David Peterson has had two short outings in a row. We’ll see what Buck does to remedy this tonight.
3. Daniel Vogelbach. On Friday night Vogelbach went 0-for-5 with four strikeouts. Since then he has gone 4-for-10 with two homers and four walks. Vogelbach is a streaky hitter, are we finally getting a Vogelbach hot streak in 2023?

Let’s Go Mets!

When the Mets took two of three from the Pirates in June, they were a first place team in the NL Central (granted they were only four games above .500 going into the series). After a tailspin during the first two weeks of July, the Pirates sold players at the deadline and are now 12 games below .500. The Mets are, of course, and have had their own tailspin of late. Currently the Mets and Pirates have identical records. There’s a bit of a race to the bottom happening, but there are still six weeks of baseball left.

Carlos Carrasco gets the start for the Mets tonight. Over 17 games (81 1/3 innings) Carrasco has a 6.42 ERA, 5.94 FIP, 1.598 WHIP and a 65 ERA+. He’s coming off of an average start against the Cubs where he held them to three hits and two runs over five innings of work. This was a significant improvement compared to his previous four starts where he had a 12.33 ERA, 6.20 FIP, over 15 1/3 innings. Against the Pirates earlier this year Carrasco allowed two runs from six hits and three walks over 4 2/3 innings. The Pirates have the following career numbers against him:

• Andrew McCutchen 3-9, 2 2B, 2 K, 2 BB
• Bryan Reynolds 2-8, K, 2 BB
• Ke’Bryan Hayes 0-7, K, BB
• Connor Joe 2-6, K
• Jack Suwinski 2-4, HR, 2 K
• Jason Delay 0-2, K
• Alfonso Rivas 0-2, K

Quinn Priester looks to the right the ship against the Mets tonight. Priester is a top prospect in the Pirates system and was recently listed the #99 prospect in baseball by MLB Pipeline (the sixth Pirate on that list). Over five starts and 23 2/3 innings this season he has allowed 23 runs from 30 hits and 15 walks, including five homers. This led to a small-sample size 8.75 ERA, 6.35 FIP, 1.901 WHIP and a 52 ERA+. In the minors this year he has made 18 starts (87 2/3 innings) with a 4.31 ERA.

Three Things To Watch For:

1. The lineup looks so much better with Brandon Nimmo leading off. Brandon Nimmo is 4-for-9 in his last two games with a double and two walks. He also made a terrific catch in the outfield last night. The Mets offense needs Nimmo in order to function, and it was great seeing him have a productive two nights in a row.
2. Jeff McHits is back! It took a long time this season, but Jeff McHits is back! In his last 12 games McNeil has gone 15-for-46 at the plate with a double and two homers, slashing .326/.392/.478/.871. That’s a significant improvement from his season slash line of .259/.334/.343/.677. The Mets offense as a whole hasn’t been a lot to write about over that same time stretch. Jeff McNeil has been a consistent source of hitting during this stretch, with only three hitless games (all near the start of this stretch). Here’s hoping he goes on a little run for the rest of the season.
3. Rafael Ortega. Ortega has had nine hits in his first 12 games as a Met. Three of them came last night. Ortega arguably had the biggest hit of the night that scored two runs and busted the game open for the Mets, stretching their lead to 7-3. As the Braves clawed back those two RBI for Ortega proved critical to holding onto the lead. Ortega played over 100 games each of the last two seasons for the Cubs. With the Mets current state, he will probably be a regular in the lineup for the next six weeks.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets try to salvage a game from a four game set with the Braves tonight on national television. It was a tough day in Queens yesterday as the Mets lost the first game 21-3 and then lost the nightcap 6-0. In the first game just about everything went wrong for the Mets. In the second game they got a solid start from Quintana but the bats couldn’t come through. Then the bullpen self-destructed late making the game impossible for the Mets. The Mets are now half a game out of last place in the NL East.

Kodai Senga has been one of the few bright spots this season for the Mets. Over 21 starts (116 2/3 innings) Senga has a 3.24 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 1.303 WHIP and a 129 ERA+. In his last six starts (35 innings) he has a 2.57 ERA and 2.78 FIP. The key change for Senga over the last two months compared to his first two months has been better control and keeping the ball in the park. In his last eight starts he has allowed only two homers, he had nine homers in the 13 starts before that. His walks have also taken a dramatic drop. This will be Senga’s first start against the Braves.

The Mets bats, who have struggled a lot this weekend, will look to get things going tonight against Yonny Chirinos. Yonny was picked up on waivers by the Braves towards the end of July. Overall in 2023 he has pitched in 18 games making seven starts totaling 76 1/3 innings with a 4.83 ERA, 5.60 FIP, 1.323 WHIP and an 87 ERA+. His three starts as a Brave have been a bit uglier allowing 13 runs runs from 19 hits over 13 2/3 innings, leading to an 8.56 ERA, 6.04 FIP, 1.683 WHIP and a 54 ERA+. The Mets have the following career numbers against Yonny:

• Omar Narváez 1-4, K
• Francisco Lindor 0-2
• Brandon Nimmo 0-2
• Daniel Vogelbach 0-2
• DJ Stewart 0-1, BB
• Pete Alonso 1-2, HR
• Francisco Álvarez 0-2, K
• Jeff McNeil 1-2

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Nimmo and Lindor played last night! Lindor and Nimmo have both been dealing with injuries this weekend. Lindor sat on Friday and the first game on Saturday. Nimmo was taken out of the game Friday night which force Jeff McNeil to play a bit of centerfield. Last night Lindor went 0-for-4 at the plate while Nimmo went 2-for-2 with two walks. The Mets lineup is definitely rough right now, but without Nimmo and Lindor the lineup looks like a spring training split-squad lineup.
2. Daniel Vogelbach responded to the boos. After a terrible Friday night where Vogelbach went 0-for-5 with four strikeouts, Vogelbach responded with three hits over the two games, including a three-run homer which is responsible for the only runs the Mets have scored all weekend.
3. Ozzie Albies. Ozzie had a pretty fantastic day at the plate yesterday. After the game he was quoted saying, “a lot of pleasure, of course, because they always say they’re going to beat us. That’s all I can say. I won’t say much” when asked how much pleasure the Braves take in beating the Mets. It’s been a long time since the Mets have said anything like this, especially with how the Mets are right now. This is the type of quote that could live beyond this season.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets got absolutely trounced in the first game of the doubleheader this afternoon. The game was 13-0 heading into the bottom half of the 8th, where the Mets finally picked up their first three runs of the weekend on a Daniel Vogelbach homer. Then with Danny Mendick pitching the Braves just unloaded on the Mets and ended up winning 21-3. Ouch. Anyway the Mets could win 2-1 or something tonight and the day will be an overall loss for the Braves. Let’s go!

José Quintana has had an interesting first four starts as a New York Met. Over 23 2/3 innings he’s allowed 24 hits and 10 runs leading to a 3.24 ERA, 2.80 FIP, 1.310 WHIP and a 122 ERA+. He’s allowed exactly six hits in each start and either two or three runs in each start. He’s kept the Mets in each game he’s pitched in and two of his starts have been quality starts. The Mets bats though have not returned the favor and the Mets have lost every game that he has started. Anyway, the Braves the following career numbers against Quintana:

• Orlando Arcia 4-29, 2B, 6 K, 4 BB
• Marcell Ozuna 7-16, HR, 3 K, 2 BB
• Matt Olson 2-12, 2B, 5 K, 2 BB
• Eddie Rosario 4-16, 3 K, BB
• Kevin Pillar 5-15, 3 2B, 4 K, BB
• Ronald Acuña Jr. 0-7, 2 K, 2 BB
• Ozzie Albies 5-8, 2 2B, 2 HR, K
• Austin Riley 0-5, K, BB
• Travis d’Arnaud 1-4
• Sean Murphy 2-4, 2B
• Michael Harris II 2-4, 2B, K

The Mets bats will try to find themselves tonight against Spencer Strider. On the season Strider has a 3.94 ERA, 2.93 FIP (league leading), 1.126 WHIP and a 115 ERA+ over 132 1/3 innings. He’s also leading the league with an absurd 14.4 K/9. In his last five starts he has allowed 19 runs, 18 earned, from 28 hits over 27 2/3 innings. He’s also struck out 45 batters over this stretch (5.86 ERA, 3.34 FIP). Against the Mets this season he has allowed 12 runs over nine innings while striking out 16 batters. The Mets have the following numbers against Strider:

• Brandon Nimmo 6-14, 3B, 2 HR, 2 K, 2 BB
• Francisco Lindor 6-13, 3B, 2 K, 2 BB
• Pete Alonso 2-9, 2B, HR, 6 K, BB
• Jeff McNeil 3-10, 2B, 2 K
• Daniel Vogelbach 1-8, 4 K, 2 BB
• Francisco Álvarez 1-3, HR, 2 K
• Mark Vientos 0-2, K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Where is the Mets offense? The Mets were very close to getting shutout again, but Daniel Vogelbach through the boos, collected a three-run homer to get the Mets on the scoreboard. As a team though the Mets only got six hits today with four walks. They’ve hit Strider well this season but this Mets lineup is much weaker than what Strider has already seen.
2. The pitching situation was a disaster earlier. The only good thing about the Mets bullpen right now is Yacabonis saved them last night and Reed Garrett with Danny Mendick saved them today. Everyone that is more reliable for the Mets is still fresh and ready to go. None of that matters though when your long-man gives up six runs (like Garrett did earlier today). The bar is low for this evening for the pen.
3. How does the earlier game impact tonight? The Mets and Braves played a three hour and 12 minute game this afternoon where the Braves had 22 hits. The Mets had to endure that entire barrage out on the field. That has to cause fatigue.

Let’s Go Mets!

In an alternate timeline, today is the pivotal day of the Mets season. A doubleheader against the Braves. A battle for the division. A four game series where two of the games will be televised nationally. Alas we don’t live in that universe. Here the Mets lost to the Braves 7-0 last night, leaving 14 runners on base throughout the night. The Mets collected seven hits and nine walks yesterday, can they repeat that today but actually get runners to score?

Denyi Reyes gets the first start for the Mets this afternoon returning to the majors for the first time since the start of May. Over six games and 7 1/3 innings for the Mets, Reyes allowed five runs from eight hits leading to a 6.14 ERA, 5.85 FIP, 1.500 WHIP and a 70 ERA+. What his season stats hide is all of the damage was done by the Braves. Reyes held opponents scoreless in his first 6 1/3 Mets innings. In one outing against the Braves, they hit two homers and scored five runs against him in one inning, a game the Mets lost 9-8. In Syracuse this season he has pitched in 15 games, including 13 starts, with a 5.77 ERA. Things have been better of late. He has a 2.08 ERA over 13 innings in his last two starts. The Braves have the following career numbers against Denyi:

• Ronald Acuña Jr. 1-1
• Michael Harris II 1-1
• Sean Murphy 1-1, HR
• Matt Olson 1-1
• Kevin Pillar 1-1, HR
• Ozzie Albies 0-1, K
• Vaughn Grissom 0-1
• Austin Riley 0-1

The Braves are countering Denyi Reyes with an Allan Winans spot start. Winans has had one major league outing this season back on July 22nd. He pitched 4 1/3 innings allowing two runs from five hits and a walk. He’s pitched in 20 games, starting 15 times in AAA ball this year posting a 2.79 ERA and 1.027 WHIP over 113 innings innings. This is his first time facing the Mets.

Three Things To Watch For:

1. How deep into the game can Reyes go? The most pitches Reyes has thrown in a minor league game is 70, which he did his last time out. Generally he throws into the mid-50’s. The Mets bullpen was saved last night by Jimmy Yacabonis who tossed 3 2/3 innings. With the second game tonight and another game tomorrow night the Mets are going to need deep performances by starting pitchers this afternoon.
2. Why pitch to Alonso when you can pitch to Vogelbach? Alonso went 0-for-1 last night with three walks. Behind him was Daniel Vogelbach who went 0-for-5 at the plate with four strikeouts. Just a tough day in the office yesterday for Vogelbach. With the Mets playing two games today, we have a higher chance of seeing some more creative lineups. Hopefully Buck will create some space so Alonso will see more hittable pitches.
3. Will someone else play out of position? Jeff McNeil played centerfield for the first time in his career last night after DJ Stewart came in for Brandon Nimmo. Will we see anyone else today expand their horizons and try something new?

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets are fresh off of a winning series for the first time since the trade deadline as they welcome the Braves to New York for a four game series. There’s a doubleheader tomorrow due to a rainout way earlier in the season when the Mets were not exactly healthy yet. That created this massive four game series after the trade deadline, possibly a battle for the division. Anyway, the Mets are ten games below .500 now and the Braves are 31 games above.

Tylor Megill makes his second start since returning to the major leagues last Saturday. It definitely wasn’t a good start against the strong Baltimore lineup last week as he allowed five runs on nine hits including two homers over 4 2/3 innings. Over 16 starts this season he has a 5.45 ERA, 5.24 FIP, 1.684 WHIP and a 76 ERA+. Megill started against the Braves back in May where he allowed three runs from four hits and three walks over 5 2/3 innings. The Braves have the following career numbers against him:

• Austin Riley 3-16, HR, 7 K
• Ozzie Albies 4-15, HR, 4 K
• Matt Olson 1-5, K, 2 BB
• Ronald Acuña Jr. 1-5, 3 K, BB
• Eddie Rosario 1-4, 2B, K, BB
• Orlando Arcia 1-3, 2B
• Sean Murphy 2-2, BB
• Travis d’Arnaud 1-3, 2B, K
• Marcell Ozuna 1-3
• Kevin Pillar 0-2

Charlie Morton has made 22 starts totaling 123 2/3 innings with a 3.86 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 1.439 WHIP and a 117 ERA+. In his last four starts though he has pitched 19 2/3 innings, allowing 16 runs from 22 hits and 15 walks leading to a 7.32 ERA and 6.26 FIP. He’s also allowed eight runs over 10 innings in two starts (four runs in each) against the Mets this season. Between Megill and Morton’s numbers, this could potentially be a long night at Citi Field. The Mets have the following stats against Charlie:

• Francisco Lindor 6-40, 3 2B, R, 11 K, BB
• Brandon Nimmo 4-20, 7 K, 2 BB
• Daniel Vogelbach 5-16, 2B 2 HR, 7 K, 5 BB
• Pete Alonso 6-21, 2B, 4 K, BB
• Jeff McNeil 5-20, 2 HR, 7 K, BB
• Omar Narváez 5-16, 2B, HR, 3 K, BB
• DJ Stewart 0-2, K, 2 BB
• Abraham Almonte 1-2, K, 2 BB
• Francisco Álvarez 2-4, HR
• Rafael Ortega 1-1, 2B, BB

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Pete Alonso. Pete Alonso hit his fourth homer in three games on Wednesday night becoming the first Met to have at least four seasons of 35 homers of more. He is still on pace to finish with 50 homers for the season and if he can keep this hot streak going through this weekend with four games, potentially we could be talking about Alonso breaking the Mets record for homers in a season (the record he set in his rookie year). This is potentially the most exciting story to follow for the the Mets right now.
2. Trevor Gott. Gott has quietly been putting up solid numbers over his last eight outings since July 23rd. Over that stretch he has pitched 7 1/3 innings allowing five hits and three walks while striking out eight. He hasn’t allowed any runs during that time and his FIP is a 2.72. In his first seven games as a Met (July 6th through the 22nd) he allowed seven runs, six earned, over 4 2/3 innings (11.57 ERA and 5.62 FIP).
3. Adam Ottavino. Adam had a rough outing on Wednesday. He came into the game with a two run lead and promptly allowed a solo homer, a hit, a walk and a balk. He was then removed from the inning without recording any outs. he also had a blown save in a game the Mets eventually lost on August 1st. It would be nice to see Ottavino in some chances this weekend to rebuild some positive momentum.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets got a quick start last night thanks to Pete Alonso. Then the bats fell silent and the Cubs were able to claw back until they eventually beat the Mets 3-2. The Cubs win with the Brewers loss meant they were able to pull within 1.5 games of first place. The Mets loss coupled with the Nationals win last night means there are only 1.5 games separating the bottom two teams in the NL East. You can look at this like a win-win for the Mets. Either they win the ball game today and win the series or they lose and get closer to that protected draft pick.

David Peterson makes his second start since returning to the Mets rotation. He allowed only one hit and three walks in three innings of work with no runs against the mighty Orioles lineup. He still needs to stretch his arm out and he made strides last Friday with that as well. Peterson tossed 52 pitches in his outing. As a reliever he was mostly landing in the mid-20’s. Peterson has a 5.65 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 1.607 WHIP and a 73 ERA+ over 65 1/3 innings this season. However since being called back to the majors at the end of June he has pitched 26 1/3 innings over 10 games with a 2.05 ERA and 3.76 FIP. The Cubs have the following career numbers against him:

• Dansby Swanson 3-15, 2B, 5 K, 2 BB
• Patrick Wisdom 0-3, 2 K, 2 BB
• Ian Happ 1-6, 4 K
• Yan Gomes 2-6, 2B
• Christopher Morel 0-2, 2 BB
• Jeimer Candelario 1-5, K
• Seiya Suzuki 0-1, 2 BB
• Nico Hoerner 2-2
• Mike Tauchman 0-2, K
• Cody Bellinger 0-2

The Mets bats will face off against the Professor tonight, Kyle Hendricks. Hendricks has a made 14 starts totaling 81 1/3 innings with a 3.98 ERA, 4.17 FIP, 1.107 WHIP and a 115 ERA+. Kendricks ended July with a three game stretch where he allowed six earned runs, seven total, over 19 1/3 innings (2.79 ERA, 2.60 FIP) before hitting a wall his last time out allowing seven runs over four innings. His first start of the season this year was against the Mets and the Mets were able to tag him for five runs, three earned, over 4 1/3 innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Omar Narváez 1-17, 3 K, 2 BB
• Daniel Vogelbach 5-13, 2B, 5 K
• Francisco Lindor 2-13, 3 K
• Pete Alonso 1-5, K, 2 BB
• Jeff McNeil 3-5, HR, K, BB
• Brandon Nimmo 1-3, K
• Francisco Álvarez 0-2
• Danny Mendick 0-2

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Pete Alonso. Alonso provided all of the Mets offense last night with a two-run homer, his 34th of the season. It was his third homer in his last two games and is now only 16 away from 50 homers. At his current pace, he has a good chance to get to that magic number. If he gets hot though, he has a remote chance of breaking his single-season record of 53 (which is also the Mets record).
2. The Bullpen. Drew Smith struggled yesterday and allowed the winning run. That being said, the bullpen only allowed one run. It’s the only run they’ve allowed in the last two games. The only members of the pen that weren’t used yesterday were Brooks Raley, Jimmy Yacabonis and Grant Hartwig. Raley tossed 28 pitches on Monday though (Yacabonis threw eight). Only Grant Hartwig is completely rested for today’s game.
3. Kyle Hendricks sneaky peripheral stats. Kyle Hendricks has a very interesting Baseball Savant percentile ranking page. He’s inducing a lot of weak contact this year despite a slow fastball and a low strikeout percentage. The Mets right now generate most of their runs from hitting the ball hard. Should be interesting to see how this plays out tonight.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets had a week’s worth of offense last night as the battled the Cubs the and rain in Queens. Led by Pete Alonso, the Mets (and the sky) opened the floodgates, beating Chicago 11-2. Will the Mets make the Cubs regret not selling at the deadline? Will the Cubs help the Mets get a protected, top-six draft pick?

The silver lining for Carrasco in his last start was he pitched into the seventh inning. If he stayed in the dugout for the seventh he would have finished the day with a quality start, allowing three runs over six innings. Alas, he ended the day with six runs over six innings. Over his last four starts he has allowed 21 earned runs. On the season he has a 6.60 ERA, 6.00 FIP, 1.638 WHIP and a 63 ERA+. One of Carrasco’s better starts this season was against the Cubs though, allowing one run over 6 2/3 innings from five hits. The Cubs have the following career numbers against him:

• Jeimer Candelario 6-15, 2B, 3 K, 2 BB
• Dansby Swanson 2-13, 2B, HR, 4 K, BB
• Ian Happ 3-11, 2B, 3 K
• Yan Gomes 2-5
• Seiya Suzuki 2-5, 2 K, BB
• Patrick Wisdom 0-4, BB
• Tucker Barnhart 2-8, K
• Nico Hoerner 3-6
• Christopher Morel 0-4, K, BB
• Mike Tauchman 0-3, K
• Cody Bellinger 1-3, 2B

The Mets bats will try to keep last night’s vibes going against Jameson Taillon. Taillon is in the first year of a four-year deal he signed with the Cubs after a couple off effective years in the Bronx. Over 19 starts, 94 innings, this season he has a 5.36 ERA, 4.65 FIP, 1.404 WHIP and an 85 ERA+. With the exception of his WHIP, those are all career worsts for Jameson. That being said, he’s gone on a run the same time the Cubs have gone on a run. In his last five games (30 1/3 innings) he has allowed only seven runs from 25 hits and 10 walks leading to a 2.08 ERA and 3.60 FIP. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Daniel Vogelbach 1-3, HR
• DJ Stewart 0-2, K, BB
• Omar Narváez 0-1, 2 BB
• Rafael Ortega 1-2, K
• Francisco Lindor 2-4

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Pete’s quest for 50 homers. Pete Alonso had a monster night at the plate going 3-for-4 with two homers, bringing him to 33 on the year. When you account for time missed due to injury, Pete is hitting about ten homers a month. The two homers last night put him back on schedule to get the remaining 17 before the end of the season.
2. Danny Mendick is doing alright. Before the season, Mendick was seen as a crucial bench piece for the Mets. When he finished his injury rehab in late June, the season was already slipping away from the Mets. In 34 trips to the plate he is hitting .212/.235/.364 but things have changed recently. In his 24 plate appearances since July 26th, he is hitting .292/.292/.500. This is boosted by his 2-for-4 game last night where he hit his first homer as Met. As things stand, Mendick is with the team until 2026, so this is something to monitor for the rest of the season.
3. Francisco Lindor. The narrative around Lindor in certain parts of the internet continues to puzzle me. I feel like we are living in alternate universes when people criticize Lindor’s season. Lindor continued his amazing 2023 campaign, the one where he has a 121 OPS+ and a 4.5 WAR (Baseball Reference) last night with a 3-for-4 night at the plate. This was coupled with Alonso’s big night so Lindor scored three times. In Lindor’s last four games he has gone 8-for-14 at the plate with two doubles and two walks (.625 OBP).

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets and the Cubs are on two different trajectories for the rest of the 2023 season. The Mets saw the writing on the wall and traded away aging stars and expiring contracts at the trade deadline. Since then the Mets have lost every game. The Cubs made a push in the standings at the deadline, held onto their stars (possibly increasing the Mets return in trades) and have continued to play well. They are only four games over five hundred, but currently are tied with the Reds for a Wild Card spot and only 1.5 games back from the division lead. Can the Mets play spoilers this week? Will the Cubs use the Mets on their way to push for the division title?

The Mets to got a quality start yesterday and Kodai Senga looks to keep that momentum going tonight. Over 20 starts (110 2/3 innings), Senga has a 3.25 ERA, 3.70 FIP, 1.292 WHIP and a 127 ERA+. Since June 28th Senga has made six starts totaling 34 innings with a 2.65 ERA, 2.73 FIP. At the start of the year he was struggling with homers and walks. During this current stretch he has allowed only two homers (last one on July 15th) and has walked only 11 batters (44 before this). When he faced the Cubs earlier this year he allowed three runs from six hits and five walks over five innings. The Cubs have the following career numbers against him:

• Jeimer Candelario 0-5, 3 K
• Seiya Suzuki 1-2, 2B, BB
• Nico Hoerner 0-2, K, BB
• Ian Happ 1-3, 2 K
• Dansby Swanson 1-3, 2B
• Mike Tachman 2-3, K
• Christopher Morel 1-3, K
• Tucker Barnhart 0-1, BB

Drew Smyly has pitched 112 2/3 innings over 22 games (20 starts) with a 4.71 ERA, 4.93 FIP, 1.349 WHIP and a 97 ERA+. He’s allowed at least four earned runs in four of his last five outings. Over that stretch he has allowed a total of 20 runs, 19 earned, over 22 2/3 innings (7.54 ERA, 6.57 FIP). If you look a little bit farther back, to his last seven games he has allowed 30 runs from 40 hits and ten homers (8.40 ERA, 6.56 FIP). Before this stretch that started on June 28th, he had a 3.38 ERA. Smyly had an average outing against the Mets back in May where he allowed two runs over five innings, he’ll gladly take an outing like that again tonight. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Starling Marte 4-17, 2 2B, 3 K
• Francisco Lindor 5-17, 2B, 3 K, 2 BB
• Brandon Nimmo 5-13, 2 2B, 3 K, BB
• Pete Alonso 4-12, 2B, 2 HR, 3 K, 2 BB
• Jeff McNeil 0-5, K, 2 BB
• Daniel Vogelbach 2-8
• Mark Vientos 0-4, 3 K
• Brett Baty 0-2
• Omar Narváez 0-1

Three Things To Watch For:

1. The Mets Offense? The Mets offense essentially disappeared this weekend collecting only four hits yesterday. They’ve scored three runs in their last two games. Yesterday was particularly frustrating because even though the Mets only had four hits, they did work six walks but couldn’t do anything with that. Plus, they actually got a quality start from a starting pitcher. Hopefully the Mets can change this part of their story tonight against a struggling Drew Smyly.
2. Brett Baty. Baty had a pretty terrible Saturday night striking out three times. Yesterday he went 0-for-2 at the plate, working two walks and recording zero strikeouts. Being patient at the plate and working walks, especially after a frustrating three-strikeout game is a sign of resilience and growth for the Mets third basemen of the future.
3. What’s the vibe at Citi Field? The Mets are returning home for the first time tonight since the trade deadline. It’s also a Monday night after a rainy day in New York. What are the vibes going to be like? Is it going to be mostly empty? Apathetic? How will the players feed off of the crowd?

Let’s Go Mets!