213 Miles From Shea

Jon Niese is one of those prospects who does not get his name thrown around a lot. I first heard of him at before the 2007 baseball season from Street and Smith's Baseball (2007). He was listed as number 5 on the Mets top 10 prospect list. He is also on the Baseball America top 10 prospect list that was created in November 2007. He is listed at #8 on that list.

In the Street and Smith's Baseball write up, they say, “Niese throws four pitches for strikes, including a solid splitter, but needs a better changeup and more command with his fastball. He went 11-11 with a 3.97 ERA and 9.6 K's a game at Class A.” (Niese is a left handed pitcher). In his three seasons in the minors, he is 23-18 over 62 G, 60 GS. He has posted a 4.05 ERA over those 62 games. The past two seasons he has pitched over 130 innings and averages 8.5 K's a game. Last season was the first season that he had a K thru 9 below 8.75 (last year he had a 7.41)

The thing to remeber with his statistics is that he will only be 21 next season. He is building up stamina pitching more and more each year. His ability to strike people out is what intrigues me. We won't see him at Shea/Citi anytime soon but he could be an under the radar development for 2010/2011.

Believeniks! 2005: The Year We Wrote a Book About the Mets by Ivan Felt and Harris Conklin is not your average book about the Mets. The book is made up of a series of letters from each of the authors to each other during the 2005 season. When reading this book now, there is a definite feeling of nostalgia. 2005 feels like such a long time ago when reading this book. This was pre-Wagner with Looper “anchoring” the pen. Many of the games they write to each other about you will remember. I felt those days of being mad at Looper and proud of Pedro during those letters. There is a great glossary in the end that gives humorous descriptions of each of the players on the Mets.

Sample Selection (Felt and Conklin 270):
“Piazza, Mike (1998-2005): Straight catcher for the Mets and Dodgers”

The book starts to fall flat midway through because their letters start to turn more to their personal life and the novelty of reliving the 2005 season starts to die out. Believeniks is not a bad read, but it is also not a book to rush out and get either. Overall, it is entertaining but not a standout as a great baseball book.

Baseball is almost at that time of year again where everybody starts to make predictions for next year in terms of players and teams. At this point in the year, I am always ready for these predictions because they give numbers to dissect before Spring Training and the Regular season produces actual numbers.
Last year, Street and Smith's Baseball was one of the few magazines that attempted to predict actual numbers for certain players in the upcoming year. These are the numbers that they predicted for Mets players in 2007 with the actual numbers the Mets players produced:

Carlos Beltran: Ranked #4 OF
Projected: .288 BA, 35 HR, 104 RBI, 18 SB
Actual: .276 BA, 33 HR, 112 RBI, 23 SB
In 2006, Beltran hit .275. I think predicting that he would hit above .285 would have been a little too optimistic. Besides that, they hit his power numbers pretty much on the spot. When SB is concerned with the Mets, the actual will always be higher than the predicted because the Mets love to run the bases.

Jose Reyes: Ranked #1 SS
Proj: .294 BA, 11 HR, 64 RBI, 56 SB
Act: .280 BA, 12 HR, 57 RBI, 78 SB
If Reyes' second half was like his first, his BA would have been closer to the predicted and his RBI would probably be better. People knew before the season that he could steal 78 bases, but if they said that, they would have been shot down as too optimistic.

David Wright: Ranked #2 3B
Proj: .299 BA, 26 HR, 105 RBI, 19 SB
Act: .325 BA, 30 HR, 107 RBI, 34 SB
His BA is no surprise to Mets fans here. Projections of Wright were down because of his second half in 2006 where he struggled, he rebounded in a big way in 2007.

Carlos Delgado: Ranked #7 1B
Proj: .291 BA, 34 HR, 112 RBI, 0 SB
Act: .258 BA, 24 HR, 87 RBI, 4 SB
Rough year. This year is going to be better.

Paul LoDuca: Ranked #16 C
Proj: .298 BA, 6 HR, 46 RBI, 2 SB
Act: .272 BA, 9 HR, 54 RBI, 2 SB
When I first saw this projection, I was upset that they gave him a .298 BA, especially after a .318 in 06, but they were right that his contact would go down. Surprising though that he hit 9 jacks.

Brian Schneider: Ranked #25 C
Proj: .262 BA, 6 HR, 47 RBI, 0 SB
Act: .235 BA, 6 HR, 54 RBI, 0 SB
Threw him in here just because.

Luis Castillo: Ranked #9 2B
Proj: .299 BA, 3 HR, 41 RBI, 21 SB
Act: .301 BA, 1 HR, 38 RBI, 19 SB
For the most part, they really got this guy right.

I don't understand how they figure out these projections. How ever they do it, they are always fun to read, they spark discussion and are a good distraction until real numbers come out.
Getting closer to that 2008 Baseball Season.

The Phillies bullpen got a big boost this off-season with Brad Lidge as their new closer. This makes their 8-9 innings really strong especially against the Mets. Warning: these are not pretty statistics.

Tom Gordon, the closer for part of the year for the Phillies last year had excellent numbers against the Mets. He had 7 appearances against the Mets last year all of them were extremely effective:
April 11: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 2 SO, Save
August 27: 1.0 IP, 1 SO
August 29: 1.0 IP, 1 BB, Hold
August 30: 1.0 IP, Win
Sept 14: 1.1 IP, 3 SO, Win
Sept 15: 0.2 IP, 1 SO, Hold
Sept 16: 1.0 IP 1 SO
Total: 7.0 IP, 1 H, 8 SO, 1 BB, 0.00 ERA, 1 Save, 2 Holds, 2 Wins
Career: 21 G, 3-1, 7 saves, 21.2 IP, 2.08 ERA
Career at Shea: 12 G, 1-1, 4 saves, 11.1 IP, 2.38 ERA
Not one run scored against Flash Gordon this season at all. This is not a good situation because he is the setup man. The Mets cannot put themselves in a situation where they are down in the eighth because their chases of scoring their after are pretty low. To put this in perspective, Gordon's ERA was 4.73 for the season, and 0.00 against the Mets.

Brad Lidge only had one appearance against the Mets last year. It was on September 8th and he pitched a no hit, one strikeout inning. In his career, he has 14 G against the Mets posting a 1-1 record, 16.2 IP and a 2.70 ERA. At Shea Stadium, he has 7 Games, 1-0 record, 9.0 IP, and a 0.00 ERA. He is also very good against the Mets.

All in all, the Mets have to score early and often this year to beat the Phillies.

On a site note: Another website was added to the blog list on the side: Mets 4 Life. It is a great site that is updated very often (everyday) and has great analysis. Go check it out. If you have a site that you would want on the list to the side, please email me at eteich@umd.edu

When the Mets made the Carlos Delgado trade on November 24, 2005, they traded away their number 2 prospect, their number 4 prospect and an unlisted prospect who was noted as best strikezone discipline and fastest runner (all noted by Baseball America in November 2005). These prospects were Petit (#2), Mike Jacobs (#4), and Grant Psomas. Where are these guys now?

Petit was traded after 2006 from the Marlins to Diamondbacks for Jorge Julio. In 2006, he wen 1-1 over 15 G, 1 GS, 26.1 IP, and 9.57 ERA. In 2007, he went 3-4, over 14 G, 10 GS, 57.0 IP, and 4.58 ERA. Needless to say, he improved inbetween 2006 and 2007. He still isn't the dominating pitcher that we thought he would be by now. I remeber a lot of buzz around this guy during the 2005 season.

Mike Jacobs was an interesting fellow. In his first 100 AB with the Mets in 2005, he went on a HR craze that has heavy near the start of his career. During his firsts 100 AB, he hit 11 HR and posted a .310 BA. Since then with the Marlins he has been solid, but not crushing the ball at the pace he was with the Mets. Over the last two seasons he has posted a .262, .265 BA and 20 HR, 17 HR respectivily. He is a good player, but Delgado is still better (even with a.258 BA last year.)

Grant Psomas hasn't  broken the majors yet. In four minor league seasons, he has posted a .270 BA, .353 OBP, and .449 SLG. He was not on any Baseball America list for the Marlins in 2007.

As an interesting note: On the November 2005 Mets top ten prospect list by Baseball America, rank 6 and 7 were Carlos Gomez and Fmart. This whole article shows that although Fmart has tremendous upside, the trigger for Santana has to get pulled.

I wanted to step away from the Mets' farm system with today's prospect. Today I wanted to look into Jason Heyward, an OF prospect in the Atlanta Braves' farm system. He was selected in the first round of this year's draft and next season he will be 18-years old.

Baseball America is in love with this guy. They voted him best power hitter, and best strike zone discipline, and see him as the starting LF in 2010. That being said in their write-up about the Braves' farm system they talk about his power hitting. Finally, they voted him in the number 2 position of their top 10 prospects going into the 2008 season. (Rankings made public on 11/5/07)

I have not been able yet to locate any high school statistics on the web yet for Heyward but I was able to get some of his 2007 minor league statistics. He played 12 games this year, 8 in Rookie league (GCL) and 4 in the Danville Applacian Rookie league. Between these 12 games, he had 43 AB with 13 H, 5 2B, 1 HR, 6 RBI and posting a .302 BA, .354 OBP, and a .488 SLG.

Although I have a lack of statistics, there seems to be a lot of buzz around this guy and I am interested in seeing what he does next year when he has a full season of minor league ball under his belt. He is young, which means that he could be a superstar or a flop, but he does have a lot of talent.

Earlier this month the Mets acquired Angel Pagan from the Cubs in exchange for Corey Coles and Ryan Meyers. Lets first look at Pagan vs Coles. Both are OF and they are both the same age. I posted a “Get to Know a Prospect” about Corey Coles earlier, so I will not spend to much time on him here but there are few stats that should be highlighted. Their slugging is just about that same in the minor leagues. Pagan has a .373 and Coles a .387. There batting average is where there is a big difference. Coles has an average at .306 while Pagan has one at .280.
The blaring difference between these two OF is that Pagan has played in the major leagues. He has had 318 AB over 148 games where he has posted a .255 BA, .306 OBP, and .415 SLG. In 2006, he played in 77 games and had .247 BA, .306 OBP, and.394 SLG and in 2007 over 71 games he had a .264 BA, .306 OBP, .439 SLG. In simplist terms, his stats improved 06 to 07. Another interesting note is that over his 2 seasons playing in the MLB, he hit 9 HR, which is half the amount he hit in 7 minor league seasons.

Although Corey Coles' minor league statistics are better, I would have to go right now and say that Pagan is the better OF only because he has time in the majors already. (I do realize that Coles could break the majors this year and have a fantastic year, anything is possible in baseball).

At the time of this article, MLB Spring Training Starts in 30 days, 23 Hours.

After the holidays that cooled down the hot stove from earlier this winter, the hot stove really picked up some heat this week. So far this week there have been a flurry of rumors surrounding Brian Roberts, Erik Bedard, Mark Kotsay, Johan Santana, Mike Cameron, Bill Hall, Troy Glaus and Scott Rolen. Let's try to break down some of these completed deals, still talking deals, dead deals, and never-actually-were-being-talked-about deals.

At the start of the week, it looked like the Brian Robert's to the Cubs was a done deal. Several websites were reporting the deal done and it seemed like the Orioles were going to trade Roberts for more pitching. Then articles started to rise about the disagreements between the Orioles and Cubs about which players would be involved in the trade. (mlbtraderumors.com reporting that they could have been over players like Rich Hill and Felix Pie). Being around Orioles fans, if their golden boy was to be traded, they wanted someone like Felix Pie only because he plays OF and the Orioles offense is dead (and that the Orioles only have a RF, no real LF or CF). Now according the mlbtraderumors.com, the trade seems just about dead.
The story about the Orioles this year and trades this year is that they keep getting pitchers, but they are not getting offesne. They did not have an offense last year, and they have promising young pitchers, so bringing in more pitchers has always been a bit of a question of why.

On that same note, the OF spot has been the issue with trading Bedard. Several times this winter, it looked like the Reds were making progress, but they couldn't get the deal done because they would not trade Jay Bruce, OF prospect. The buzz surronding the Orioles and Mariners has been the Mariners including Adam Jones, OF prospect, which is what the Orioles want. Mlbtraderumors.com made an interesting note today, Adam Jones was removed from winter league play today.

The Mark Kotsay trade is the next trade in the A's firesale this year. The Braves gave up pitcher Joey Devine for him. Devine will be 24 next year has played 25 games in the majors so far from the pen (pitching 19.7 IP). His notable statistical year was last year when he posted a 1.08 ERA for 10 G, 8.1 IP. When you look at the trade, it is real obvious that the A's were looking to get a young player with potential because they are still paying portions of Kotsay's contract. The Braves do gain a veteran OF who just had an off year last year. He is a carear .280 hitter.
I feel in the long run, the Athletics become winners from this trade. The Braves really didn't need a big bat because they still have Chipper, Francor, McCann has heavy hitters. I also see Kelly Johnson as a potential threat. This deal doesnt scare me, but I don't like any help the Braves get.

I am not going to spend too much time on Johan Santana here, but if the Mets are prepared to trade Fmart and Gomez for Johan, then the Angel Pagan trade makes a lot of sense as insurance for OF.

Old friend Mike Cameron signed with the Brewers recently, but not without some other buzz surronding him. There were reports that the Yankees were interested in Cameron. Buster Olney reported that the Yankees never seriously considered Mike. I am a little intrigued by Scott Rolen for Troy Glaus only because I don't understand it. The benefit I see from it is change of scenery could create better offensive results. We'll see if this trade goes through. (At the time I wrote this, mlb.com and mlbtraderumors.com was reporting it close, and espn was reporting it done).

Is This a Great Game, or What?, by Tim Kurkjian is an excellent baseball book for baseball fans. George F. Will of the New York Times says it “is like a leisurely lunch with Tim.” When you read this book, that is exactly how you feel. Kurkjian collects baseball stories throughout his career. If you read this book you will find yourself quoting stories from the book.

I really love the human element of baseball that is shown in this book and it is not just the human element of the players that Kurkjian shows. He shows the human elements of the media, of the managers, of the fans, of fanatics and of Baseball Analysts of TV.

At the start, the book is a claim of why Baseball is the best sport, to which Kurkjian provides a superfluous examples. This turns into the only negative aspect of the book, as this arguement pops up again alot. But when I say negative, I was really searching for something in this book that I didn't like. This really is an excellent baseball book. If you are a baseball fan, you need to read this book.

This is the next part in a series of articles that look into the Mets farm system for a future catcher. So far we have looked at notable statistics from last season from most of the catchers in the system, and 18-year old prospect Francisco Pena. Today, lets look at 23-year old prospect Jascon Jacobs.

Jason Jacobs has had two seasons in the Mets farm system so far. (Last year being his first full season). In 2006, he was drafted in the 20th round and was the 604th overall pick. In 2003, 2005-06 he played for University of Georgia. Each of those three seasons, his BA increased, .279, .286, .331.Overall, his slugging increased from .465 in 2003 to .496 in 2006. His homers and RBI's also increased in each of those seasons.

For the Cyclones in 2006, in 45 G and 138 AB, he posted a .217 BA and .312 SLG with 30 H, 7 2B, 2 HR and 14 RBI's.

In 2007, in 66 G and 238 AB, he posted a .273 BA and .487 SLG with 65 H, 11 2B, 12 HR and 46 RBI.

When compared to Pena's statistics, Jacob's are a lot better. Jacob is also 5 yeats older than Pena and has a lot more buzz around him than Jacob has. Personally I would like to see Jacob take some at-bats at a higher level, he was an allstar last year and it is time for him to move to the next level. With Pena's BA last year (slightly above .210), he should probably stay at low-A. How about trying Jacob at St.Lucie for the first part of the season, if it isnt working, he can go back Brooklyn when they start in June. (I prefer not to drop him and give him a season in A+ ball)