213 Miles From Shea

Before all of the Santana news, MLB announced that this year will be the last year of the Hall of Fame Game in Cooperstown. The two teams that will be playing in this historic game are the Cubs and the Padres. The series has been played since 1940 and now also includes a home run derby at the start. As you probably guessed, the game is played at Double Day Field.

The reason that this is a big deal is because I feel that they are missing an obvious solution. The game is an exhibition game and should stay that way. There is nothing wrong with moving the game to March though. When major league clubs are playing games in Bejing and Tokyo for Spring Training, and now with the Civil Rights game in Memphis, there is nothing wrong with having two teams play a game in Cooperstown. The game already is mostly minor leaguers because major league clubs want their players to get rest.
Hopefully the administrative departments of baseball have had an idea similar to this and hopefully they will act on it. It is a shame to see a tradition like this go to waste. I know that many people do not pay attention to the game, but it brings in business for the town, and the game is generally sold out, so it is still viable.

By now you know the most amazing news of the offseason, that the 2-time Cy Young, 3-time All-Star, Johan Santana is on the New York Mets. I used the split feature on baseballreference.com (which is always fun to play around with) to find some statistics on Santana.

2007 stats:
15-13, 33 G, 219.0 IP, 3.33 ERA, 1.073 WHIP, 9.66 K/9, 2.14 BB/9, 7.52 H/9
All Time stats:
PHI- 1 G, 0-0, 4.2 IP, 1.93 ERA
ATL- 2 G, 0-1, 11.2 IP, 3.09 ERA (2.57 ERA in '07)
@ Shea- 2 G, 2-0, 15.0 IP, 0.60 ERA (0.00 ERA in '07)

Career ERA by month (2007 ERA)
April/March         4.23 (3.60)
May                     4.05 (2.73)
June                     2.63 (1.98)
July                     3.67 (3.440
Aug                     2.44 (3.60)
Sept/Oct              2.75 (4.94)

Other 2007 ERA's
2.52 at home
3.75 away
2.60 open stadium
2.59 grass field

So what do all of these numbers mean? Well first off they mean excitement. Literally just like Wagner said, with Santana comes excitement and it should spread to other players. There isn't enough data to make predictions about his play against the Phillies, Braves and playing at Shea.
His ERA at home should be a big boost because the natural order of things is to be great at home and good on the road, (as opposed to the Mets who win on the road and are slightly above average at home). Furthermore, look at his monthly numbers last year, his ERA was better in the earlier months than it normally is (the inflation at the end has been attributed to him losing Luis Castillo in trade and not contending for the playoffs.)
Which brings me to another point outside the numbers, Castillo and Santana are on the same team again! This should cause some positive inflation in both of their numbers.
Yesterday was also the second busiest day on this website in terms of unique hits. There were 63 yesterday which nearly missed the high of 68 (the day after the 2007 series). Do you feel that in the air? It is pure excitement.

Bring on April.

In the last edition, we established the types of games the Mets will be playing in May 2008, this article will continue the analysis of the games in May:

Whenever you play a team that was in
the world series, that series of games become a crucial set to win. It
is just a natural way to gage where you are as a team. That being said,
if the Rockies were not winning any games by this time in the season,
then this set of games would lose its importance. If the Mets have to
play against both of Dan Haren and Webb, then the three games against
the Dbacks also become crucial games for the month.
To be the Best you have to beat the Best.
Basically
what the last paragraph is distinguishing is that even though the Mets
had 8 games vs Playoff teams in April, they were against two teams. In
May, their 9 games vs Playoff teams will be against three teams. This
also means that by this point in the season, the Mets have played 5 of
the 8 playoff teams (all of the ones in the NL and the Yankees in the
AL), so take that for what its worth.
Between playing the National League champ Rockies and playing the Yankees, the other thing that May has going for the Mets is a high level of energy of play. It is exciting to play a world series team. It is exciting to play in the Subway series. These are FUN games to play and hopefully that will show through the box score as the Mets come away with victories.

The Mets will be playing 8 teams in May rather than 6 in April, I really feel that this makes no difference but its a fun thing to point out about their schedule.

The next part in the preview series in May 2008. In May the Mets will play:
Washington 4 times
Atlanta 3 times
Florida 3 times
Arizona 3 times
LAD 6 times
Cinn. 3 times
Yankees 3 times
Colorado 3 times

In the breakdown, the Mets in May will play 10 games for the second month in a row against teams that were below .500 last year (in April they play 10, but technically its 11 because of March 31st). The Mer ts in total will play 28 games, 15 away and 13 home, 10 vs the east and 18 vs other division plays.
Even though the Mets play 18 games against teams above 500 last year and 9 against playoff teams last year, I feel that this will be a better a month than April because they will play more away and they only will play 10 games vs the East which removes pressure. Furthermore, only 3 of those games will be vs a pre-season contender for the East (the Braves).

Brant Rustich, a 23 year-old rhp prospect, was named at #6 on the November 2007 Baseball America Top 10 Mets Prospect List. He was also named the best fastball in the Mets system. Lets learn a little more about this pitcher.

He was selected in the 43rd round by the Twins in the draft in 2003, but he went to college so he went back into the draft and was selected again in the 13th round by the Indians in 2006. Then he went back to college for his senior year and was selected 2nd round by the 2007 draft. (The Baseball Cube thebaseballcube.com).

When looking at his college stats (UCLA), his ERA statistics are really interesting. His best year was his junior year and it was 1.50 over 6 games and 6.0 IP. His freshman year he had a 8.54 ERA over 26.1 IP, his sophomore year 5.23 ERA over 62.0 IP, and in his senior year his ERA was 6.67 over 29.2 IP.
Then, after his senior year (the same year 2007) he posted a 0.87 ERA in Kingsport over 10.1 IP and then a 2.13 ERA over 12.2 IP (In Brooklyn). In other words, Rustich is a pitcher who has pitched better in the minors so far than in college.
Another statistic to look at his K/9, which was above 7 his first two years in college, 15.0 his junior year and above 8 his senior year. In his time in the minors, his K/9 is 8.22, which is great. (21 K's through 23 IP)
He is young but in time he could become a nice piece of the bullpen (it seems that he pitches around an inning per game, his 23 IP in the minors have been over 25 games).

April was the best month for the Mets by far last year and looking at this year, April will be an important test for the team. I know that April games don't mean anything, but when the division is lost by one game, it is hard to say that a loss early in the season doesn't matter. That being said the breakdown of the Mets' 27 April games are as follows:

NL East:
FLA-2
ATL-6
PHI-6
WAS-5

NL Cent:
MIL-3
CHC-2
PIT-3

In April, the Mets will play 19 games against the East and 8 games against the Central. 17 of those 27 games will be against teams that finished last year above .500. 8 of those games will be against teams that made the playoffs last year.
Crucial games will be playing the Phillies home-because for some reason the Mets seem to play much better on the road. (Only 12 of their 27 games in April will be away). So, like any other season, the critical games will be vs the Braves and the Phils, only because they are rivals. If the Cubs are as good as they were in the latter half of last year, it will also be important to put them in their place. The East has to establish themselves as the best division in Baseball (right now they are not) and the Mets have to establish themselves as the best team in that division.

Last year the Mets had arguably the toughest Interleague schedule in the NL East. So lets compare the Interleague games for this upcoming season.

Mets:
6 vs Yanks
3 vs Rangers
3 vs Angels
3 vs Mariners

Phillies:
3 vs Blue Jays
3 vs Red Sox
3 vs Angels
3 vs Athletics
3 vs Rangers

Braves:
3 vs Athletics
3 vs Angels
3 vs Rangers
3 vs Mariners
3 vs Blue Jays

All three teams (I didn't include the Nationals and the Marlins in this edition, maybe I will in a later one if you all want me to) play the Rangers and the Angels, which for the NL East is a good thing. I feel that the Angels will be in first during Interleague play. Regarding the Rangers, if they are like they were last year, they will have a highly potent offense and no team in the East right now has exceptional pitching.
At least the Phillies face a tough AL East team. Last year the Mets had the Yanks and the Braves had the Sox, so thank God the Phils got the Sox this year, even if it is only for 3 games. Now it is slightly unfair that both the Braves and the Phils got Toronto (and Oakland), (which is due to the 6 games the Mets play against the Yanks).
This year, at least when looking at the teams on paper in preseason terms, interleague looks to be much more even this year.

            MLB is going global this spring. Baseball announced
yesterday that the Padres and the Dodgers will be playing two games in Beijing,
China (March 15 and 16). They will be playing in the stadium that will be used
in the 2008 Olympics. The Red Sox and Athletics will be opening the season in a
two game set in Tokyo. Each team will also have two Spring Training games
against Japanese teams.

            Baseball announced in October that they will
introduce a program called “Play Ball” in China that opens Baseball camps for
Chinese children in Elementary schools. More information on that program can be
found here: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071010&content_id=2259940&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

            In other international baseball news, the Israel Baseball
League held tryouts for a second year in Miami on December 23^rd,
2007. According to their website, http://www.israelbaseballleague.com,
mostly college players and former minor leagues participated in the tryouts.
They will have two more this offseason in the Dominican Republic and LA. They
also announced that they are moving the Petach Tikva Pioneers to Jerusalem this
year (becoming the Jerusalem Lions).

            In case you are wondering, the first game
next season is on June 22^nd, and it features Art Shamsky’s Modi’in
Miracles against the Bet Shemesh Blue Sox.

In the week of January 14th, 2008, Sporting News, in their baseball section ranked each leagues starting rotation. Out of the 16, the Braves got ranked 8th, the Mets 9th, the Phillies 10th, Nationals 15th and the Marlins 16th.
Needless to say, they do not have much faith in the NL East's current rotations. That feeling is rightfully so at this point in time.

This says a few things. First, the inclusion of Santana, Blanton, or Bedard on either the Mets, Braves, or Philles would make them the best rotation in the divison (Luckily for us, the Mets are the only one with packages to do that, unless the Braves trade Jason Heyward which they would not do). That statement is obvious though.

Out of these three teams, the Mets have the best chance to be the best, or be the worst. Before we get to how they control their own destiny in this departement, lets look at the faults within the Braves, who are currently the top of the three. Their top pitchers are Smoltz, Hudson, and Glavine. When looking at Glavine it is important to note that in each of his last three seasons, his ERA has ballooned. He was a 3.53, then a 3.82, and last year a 4.45. Although he is known for winning even when giving up runs (he pitches for the win, not the low ERA) that will have to stop with the Braves who do not have an offense as potent as the Mets. On top of Glavine, they are hoping for Hampton to finish out their rotation and we all know he is injury prone.

On the topic of the Mets, the focus will go back onto Maine and Perez who can make this team into a dominate pitching force or at the same time just self-destruct. Last year was promsising for both and if Maine can have a strong season, for the whole season (similar to how he started last year) and if Perez can keep throwing strikes, the Mets could very well be the best of this trio. The main weakness with Mets rotation is the fifth pticher right now because currently its a question mark, but time will tell what happens.

When looking at the Philles, they will go as far (in terms of starting pitching) as Hamels and Kendrick. Sporting News says that Hamels is “becoming a true ace” which is absolutly true. If Kendrick starts to pitch better (he was a rookie last year), this rotation could become a little more trouble than they were before. The nice thing (if you are a Phillies fan) is that you know with the setup man and closer situation in Philly now, and their highly potent offense, it doesnt matter if the starting rotation is great, they just need to be above average to good in order to win.

On another note entirely, I really like the Texas Ranger's new slogan “You can use some baseball”

I haven't done a Numbers Daily in a while (mainly because it generally relates to recently played games) so today I decided to dig up some numbers.

Ninth inning drama. Who can win it? Who do you want AB? Thats what I was looking for today, I looked at 9 current Mets and 2007 statistics in the 9th inning to see how they hit in those late innings. (Note: I could not separate data from close games in the ninth inning to blowouts) The percentages at the end are BA then OBP.

Reyes: 51 AB, 19 H, 2 2B, 2 HR, 8 RBI, .373, .448
Wright: 45 AB, 14 H, 3 2B, 2 HR, 12 RBI, .311, .411
Delgado: 41 AB, 11 H, 2 2B, 1 HR, 11 RBI, .268, .333
Beltran: 45 AB, 16 H, 4 2B, 2 HR, 12 RBI, .356, .423
Alou: 27 AB, 7 H, 1 2B, 0 HR, 5 RBI, .259, .259
Schneider: 36 AB, 7 H, 2 2B, 0 HR, 1 RBI, .194, .293
Castillo: 45 AB, 15 H, 0 2B, 0 HR, 3 RBI, .333, .348
Church: 36 AB, 8 H, 4 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, .222, .300
Chavez: 16 AB, 5 H, 1 2B, 0 HR, 4 RBI, .313, .476

That is a nice, dense block of numbers, so lets break them down. In terms of base runners, no surprise here, Chavez and Reyes are your men. They both have an OBP over .440. Also interesting is that Reyes hit 2 of his 12 homers in the ninth inning. Which is slightly more than he should have on average. (Same can be said about his RBI's)
In terms of who you want when runners are on base, you have look at the big men of the lineup. Wright, Beltran and even Delgado each had over 10 RBI's in the ninth inning. It is nice to know that when push comes to shove you can rely on your big bats in the lineup to get the job done. Granted with the .268 average in the ninth inning, Delgado would be #3 on that list of three I would want with the game on the line.
This leads me to my next point. Reyes, Chavez, Delgado, Beltran, and Castillo all had BA's in the ninth inning that was above their actually BA. (With Wright, he hit .311 in the ninth which is below his season of .325, but if your hitting above .300, then you are doing something right anyway).