213 Miles From Shea

Earlier this week, it looked certain that Washington would be eliminated before this month was out. The Nationals had the second lowest elimination number, which was comparable only to Seattle, who's fate has already been sealed. However, the Nationals have staged an impressive 4 game run right now that has blocked them and blocked them from being eliminated. Here are the top 5 lowest elimination numbers right now:
    1. Pittsburgh: 1
    2. Cincinnati: 2
    3. Washington: 3
    4. Oakland: 8
    5. Kansas City: 9
The top three teams here all have a chance of being eliminated in August still. If the Mets win both games games this weekend, and the Nationals lose one (or the Mets win only one and the Nats drop both games ), then they are gone. So if they get eliminated in August, it will be on the last day. The Pirates and the Reds can easily be gone tomorrow. Only one team has been eliminated so far and that is the Mariners.

On the other side, two teams today joined the Cubs as teams that are guranteed to finish the season with a winning record. They are the Angels and the Rays. Hats off to the Rays. A lot of people were expecting them to do better this year, but no one expected them to be on top like they are. They have faced injuries, and they just keep winning. They really have put together a great year every way you look at it, and it is scary to think about how those players will develop as they get older. It's also scary to think about all the talent they have down on the farm.

Yesterday I hinted at it, today I am sure of it. Between the Mets and the Phillies, which ever pen survives to the end will get the division title for the East. We all know the Mets pen has been struggling this year, a lot. The Phillies pen, with the exception of the last few days, has been very good, but only late in ball games. However, they are starting to slump, and slumping at a very good time for the Mets. The last game the Mets played in Philly, the Mets rallied in the eighth to win. In the first game in Chicago, Hamels handed a great game over to the pen, which then blew it. In the second game in Chicago, Harden leaves the game with a 2-1 lead (the offense was not helping him today) and the pen lets the runners that Harden put on base to score. Then the next inning, they give the Cubs the go ahead run. What is the result? The Philies are now 2 games out of first.

Now the Mets pen wasn't perfect tonight either. Beltran in his awesome night, puts the Mets ahead 5-2 in the top of the ninth and Ayala closes out the game, but not before making it 5-4. This night Ayala was able to keep the save, but he really needs to watch himself because any mistakes he makes can cost the Mets the game and their chance at the division title. Knowing all of this about the Phillies current pen problems and the Mets always current pen problems, the champion in this division will be decided by which ever team fields the better pen.

The Mets will try to continue their winning ways tonight against the Marlins. The Mets will be sending Perez to the mound who will try again to get his 10th win of the season. He will be going toe to toe with Volstad, a rookie pitcher on the Marlins. They will need to pitch and hit their way to keep pace in the tight NL East.

Perez has been very good since July 24th. From that date till now, he is 3-1 over 7 games with an ERA of 3.13. More impressive to me is his BB to K ratio over that span, 16 BB to 47 K, which is nearly a 3 K to 1 BB ratio. Thats the type of accuracy he needs on the mound to get deep into games and to lead the Mets to victory. One of those games during that stretch, one of his Wins, was against the Marlins where he allowed 1 run over 6 innings while walking 3 and striking out 5. Overall this year, he is 3-0 over 4 games and 25 innings pitched against the Marlins. His ERA during these games is an amazing 2.16. Here are some Marlin stats against Perez:
    Ramirez 7-29, 2B, HR, 2 BB, 10 K
    Uggla 6-25, 2 2B
    Ross 8-22 (.364), 2 2B, 3 HR
    Gonzalez 4-18, 2 2B, 4 K
    Jacobs 1-9, 5 K
The main batter to worry about here is Ross. Ross is a Met killer. If the Mets can keep him under control, then they should be fine. Even with Perez's success against this team, this lineup is dangerous, which is something the bullpen will have to worry about. I am very impressed with Perez's ability to keep Ramirez under control, and Jacobs for that matter as well.

The Mets will have to figure out Volstad to get a victory tonight. They have never seen Volstad before, who made his debut this year and has only pitched in 9 games (8 starts). This season he is 4-3 over 50 innings and has a nice 3.42 ERA. In August, he is 2-2 over 5 games, with a 4.28 ERA. So the Mets will have to face the unknown pitcher and they will have to hit him hard. Just like in any game, a goal should be to strike early (the part the Mets have down), strike often (the Mets still need some work on that), and strike late (they really need work with that).

The following are a few Mets stats throughout the Month of August. Each batter here has played in 25 games this month:
    Delgado 94 AB, 7 HR, 24 RBI, .277 BA, .367 OBP, .553 SLG
    Reyes 113 AB, 4 2B, 4 3B, HR, 6 RBI, 7 BB, 8 SB, .319 BA, .358, OBP, .451 SLG
    Wright 99 AB, 9 2B, 5 HR, 17 RBI, .293 BA, .363 OBP, .535 SLG
No surprise that all of these numbers look good.  These are the numbers that all of us hope we see carry on tonight and throughout September and possibly into October.

I wonder how Philly fans are feeling right now. I have a feeling that they are feeling similar to last night and similar to the Mets fans the night before. The Phillies were in control for almost all of this game. They got an early run off of Dempster and then after that it was pretty much a pitching battle all the way. Great pitching by Dempster, but really Hamels. The Cubs in the fifth got a run off of Hamels and then after that the Phillies really took the game to the next level. They got three runs the next inning, and it was 4-1 Phillies and it looked like the way the Cubs were playing this was going to be a win for the Phils.

Then the bullpen started to falter, Hamel's effort were thrown out of the window. A grand slam given up, and then the Cubs took over. The score became 6-4, and then the Cubs bullpen just shut down the Phils. A good Kerry Wood, who is having a great year (possibly competition with Delgado for comeback player of year award in the NL). So the Cubs got the win at Wrigley where they have won so much this year.

So the problem the Mets have been having, the bullpen, is the same problem that the Phillies are having. Both teams in this division race will face the same challenges. Who ever can fix their problems in the pen, will be the division champion come October.

With the Mariners out, there are a few teams tied now with an elimination number of 4. The Nationals have some how held on, but they still have a chance of being eliminated in August. Pittsburgh, now with an elimination number of 4, is also looking at a looming August exit. Here are the five lowest elimination numbers left in the majors:
    1) Tie, Washington and Pittsburgh: 4
    3) Cincinnati: 5
    4) Kansas City: 10
    5) Oakland: 11
Looking at the numbers listed, there is a chance for the Reds to be eliminated before August as well. Everyone else on this list will probably be eliminated the end of the first week of September. Theres a few other teams with elimination numbers of 13. In case you are wondering, the Mets are tied with the White Sox with the highest Magic Number sitting out 29, Signaling that both races will go down to the wire this year.

Now for guranteed winning and losing seasons. Once you reach 82 in that win or loss column, one part of your season fate has been sealed, whether or not you were a winner or a loser. Here are the teams that have clinched a losing season:
    Seattle (83)
    Washington (85)
    San Diego (82)
Those teams don't even get to play for the .500 season in September. But on the other side of the ball, who has clinched a winning season already?
    Chicago Cubs
Yep, thats it, there are a few teams with 80 wins, the Cubs are the only team that have it clinched so far. This turbulent season is about to come to a close, slightly one more month left!

Yesterday, after delaying the inevitable for several days, the Mariners were mathematically eliminated from the post season. The Mariners do not have the worst record in baseball (that honor goes to the Nationals). But what happened to the Mariners? Going into the season, they were considered by a lot of people to be a dark horse in the division or a possible dark horse in the wild card race. They had a lot going for them this season, so what stopped this dream, and turned them into the second worst team in baseball this season?

Their assets this year was supposed to be their pitching. They brought in Bedard from Baltimore who was supposed to have an amazing year. Then King Felix would be dropped to the two spot to have a tremendous year and rack up the wins facing lesser pitchers. They had Silva to help round out rotation. Their offense was supposed to have a resurgent year. But none of this went the right way, and then the Mariners started to fail.

The season started off bad. Bedard never really healed from his season ending injury in 2007. He had a terrible spring and came to Seattle and pretty much immediately left again with injury . When he came back, he wasn't really right, and he has been back and forth the the DL all season. He's on the DL right now actually. Another key injury was JJ Putz, their closer. He is so effective when healthy, and without him at full strength, the team struggled. (The next in line closer, Sherill, got traded this offseason to the Orioles, making the bullpen situation for the Mariners worse). King Felix has had a good year, but his 8-8 record tells another story. It shows that the offense is not helping him, and without an offense he stuck without a paddle. (The Mariners are 12th in the league in runs scored, 8th in batting average, but a hurting 13 of 14 in walks). So ends the Mariners season, and now they look for talent in their system for next year.

What a difference a day makes. At this point yesterday, Mets fans had bad feelings in theirs stomachs, and were pretty down. At least I felt this way, yesterday made me sick. Down in the eighth inning, with two outs and Brad Lidge looming, Carlos Delgado struck again as he tied the game. At that point it was like watching a different game. The Mets remembered how to hit! Beltran was aboard, then stole second base. Then Church was intentionally walked to bring up Murphy. Murphy, in the midst of a 1-18 slump, he ripped a double to bring home Beltran. Then Schnieder came up and brought Church and Murphy home. It was an amazing an amazing inning.

Without a doubt, the game ball tonight goes to Carlos Delgado. His two homeruns were more than just the bring the Mets within one and then later tie the game, he awoke the Mets. He is really playing well right now, and its a bit hard to remember how bad he was in the beginning of the season. The team needs him and he is answering their call.

On the pitching side of the ball, Santana started off on a rough note but because he is an ace, he was able to get it back under control to not allow runs between the the third and sixth inning. Then the Mets pen came in there and was on spot, and did not allow any runs for the rest of the game and performed like a bullpen is supposed to perform. Back on Santana, his six innings tonight pushed him to 190 on the year. Smith tonight was the definition of efficient. He was brought on to get one out, threw one pitch, and got his batter to get out and the inning was over.

What a game! Go Mets!

The Mets will try to put yesterday behind them and take back the east today as the Mets send their ace to the mound to battle Kyle Kendrick. Santana has been on fire this month as he has a 3-0 record over 5 games and 36.1 innings. During this time he has posted a Doc Gooden good 1.44 ERA. For the entire season, he is 12-7 over 184.0 innings has a 2.64 ERA and has struck out 153 batters. One of the best stat lines I have seen all day is Santana vs the Phils this year. In three games he is 1-0 over 23 innings, has a 2.74 ERA, has walked no one and has struck out 20 batters. Here are some Philly batters against Santana:
    Feliz 1-13, 4 K
    Burrell 4-11, 2B, 2 K
    Rollins 0-11
    Utley 2-11
    Howard 3-10
Santana has Rollins number this year, which is great because last night, Rollins had the Mets number. Tonight's game is why we have an ace. We have an ace to get us back into first, to give us a dazzling start when we need it most. He has done it already this year, and he brings his 16 inning scoreless streak into Philly tonight.

To win the Mets will have to remeber how to score. They were pretty good with scoring until the fifth inning yesterday. From the fifth to the 13th the bats went silent in key situations. The Mets will have to figure out Kendrick (11-7, 4.87) tonight. In August he is 2-2 over 3 games where he has pitched 18.2 innings, walked 15, struck out 9 and has had and ERA of 6.75. His ERA against the Mets this year over two games looks amazing, but does not tell a full story. Against the Mets he is 0-1 in 8.1 inning, with an ERA of 2.16. He has allowed only 2 earned runs against the Mets this year but has allowed a total of 8 runs (so 6 unearned). He has walked 9 Mets over those 8.1 innings and has only struck out 2. Here are some Mets stats against him:
    Church 4-8, HR, 3 BB
    Schneider 3-8, 2B, 3 BB
    Reyes 3-8, 2B, 2 BB
    Beltran 1-7, HR
    Delgado 4-7, 2 2B, HR, BB
The key for the Mets tonight is to not get impatient at the plate. When you have to prove yourself, or feel like you need to make up for something, you swing freely. Kendrick will walk players. So, to win tonight, wait at the plate, make Kendrick throw strikes, walk, get on base, start to steal, make things uneasy, then hit the ball. Thats the key for tonight.

Lets Go Mets! Lets get back in first!

Have you ever seen a scout at a minor league ball game? Last night I went down to Bowie, the Orioles double A affiliate to see them play the Trenton Thunder, the affiliate of the New York Yankees. I go to a lot of minor league games. They are fun, if you have never gone to one, then you need to go. Anyway, everytime I see a scout at a game, I feel like I am staring at the scout the entire game, and when you look around, everyone is. Its a bit awkward, and I do not want to stare, but his craft is so interesting. His papers are recording what an organization might think of the pitcher on the mound, or the hitter on the plate.

I couldn't see his papers but he had a radar gun. So I am assuming he was recording the speed of every pitch and the outcome of every pitch. I wonder what goes through their minds as they are watching the game. I also wonder what they think about the entire ballpark staring at them the whole time.

On the game side, it was fun. There were 5 homeruns, two of them leaving the high, high outfield walls. If you are an Oriole fan, Chris Ray had a rehab inning where he had a ground out followed by two strikeouts and looked real good. The Catcher of the future for the Orioles also showed his skills at the plate with a single and two walks (Matt Wieters). Minor League baseball is always a good time, even when the Mets blow a 7 run lead with 17 outs to go.

That is what I am telling myself after tonight's ugly, ugly loss. Hopefully you are telling yourself the same thing. Getting back on the right track is as easy as winning tomorrow and retaking the lead in the NL East. But before we can look foward, we must look back just for tonight at what happened, so it won't happen again.

We need to look beyond the pitching woes in the pen right now, because without Wagner, they will not be going away. Another real problem for the Mets tongiht was they had plenty of moments after the pitching failed them to add to their cushion. They left the bases loaded in the sixth and they left runners on the corners in the eighth. The offense needs to score when it gets the opportunity to, especially with this bullpen.

The Mets have the next month to get their act together, to get their offense scoring when it haves to, and most importantly, to protect a lead, especially a 7 run lead. This was a real frustrating loss, but hopefully it was also a wake up call to everyone on the team that they need to perform like the champions that they are. Something positive has to be noted though about Heilman tonight. Although he didn't pitch any clean innings, he did pitch 3 scoreless innings, which was very good to see. They were some of the most stressful innings I have ever followed though.

Now with all of this being said, I can see if I wasn't such a die-hard Mets fan, that this was an extremely entertaining game. You have one team go up 7-0, then another team score 6 runs and then with two outs in the bottom of the ninth, tie the game. Then after a series of great defensive plays, the game is won by a team in the 13th inning. Alas, the Mets fan in me will be able to see how great a game this was after this season is over.