213 Miles From Shea

Today's game was just what the Mets needed. They got a really good start out of Santana. He wasn't completely dominant giving up 2 runs and 7 hits over 6 innings, but he knew how to get the strikeouts today. He got 10 brewers to sit down on strikes. That type of control is worthy of mentioning. The Mets offense couldn't help him out though, so he didn't get the win today. However, the bullpen was so good today, that even though Nelson got the win, mentally we should credit the entire pen with the win. They were in control, they struck out an additional 5 stikeouts over 3 innings on their own, giving the pitching staff 15 on the day. In those three innings, they allowed no walks and no hits, including a perfect inning by closer Ayala as he starts to get his control back (he also had a stikeout on the day).

The batting was frustrating to start off the day. Especially the inning when Reyes got on base and then Murphy got on, moving Reyes to third, with only one out. And then Wright struck out and Delgado got out. Those are the situations the Mets need to score. It was only 1-0 at that point, but it was a great time to get on board. Delgado continued his heriocs today getting the lead for the Mets. His late homerun keeps his name around for the possible NL MVP race. Can't forget to mention Reyes, Beltran and Murphy who also had great games. They all went 2-4 today and really helped out the offense overall. If the team can keep hitting, if the starters can keep getting their work in, and if the Bullpen holds up, all of these if's will lead to a division championship.

One thing I haven't done in a while is look at power polls. So I went across the internet and have picked out four power polls for the MLB. They are ESPN, FOX, MLB and AOL. Two of them have the Mets above the Phillies, the other two have the Phillies above the Mets. So, the MLB have the Mets ranked at 8, and the Phillies are directly behind them ranked at 9. (They also have the Cubs ranked at number 1 and the Angels at 2). Here is what the MLB says about the Mets, followed by their statement about the Phillies:

     “Blowing a seven-run lead in a loss to the Phillies started alarm bells
ringing, but the Mets ended the week still in first place, thanks to
Philadelphia's subsequent struggles at Wrigley Field. The Mets really
miss closer Billy Wagner. “They have the rotation to win the division and the bullpen to blow their postseason hopes for a second straight year,” said Braves reporter Mark Bowman.”
     “The lift from the big rally to beat the Mets should have sent the
Phillies on their way, but the Cubs quickly brought them back to earth.”

I think that MLB.com got the situations on both teams down. The pen is the sore holding back the Mets. And the Phillies' heads weren't able to expand thanks to Cubs. But on top of that, I would add in the win by the Mets the next day, because even though they did not come back by the same amount the Phils did, but the act of coming back late in the game was enough to keep the Phils nervous and on their toes. I'll do the other rankings pretty quickly. Fox had the Mets at 6, the Phillies at 7, the Rays in first and the Cubs second. ESPN was one of the two polls that had the Phillies higher than the Mets, they ranked the Phils at 6 and the Mets at 8. In the top two spots they had the Cubs followed by the Rays. AOL rounds at the rankings with the Phillies at 7 and the Mets 8. In their top 2, they had Cubs at 1 and the Rays at 2.

I like reading the rankings, its interesting seeing what other people think that aren't Mets fans. But the Mets fan in me is always biased and sees the Mets as much better than many of the teams positioned above them.

Reyes really has been turning it on as of late, but I didn't realize how well he has been turning it on until I started planning this article. Not only is he playing very well right now, his numbers are amazing, and in a lot of categories, he could be having a career year. Lets look at his past 10 games, where he really has been that spark plug for the Mets. In those 10 games, he has 46 AB, 17 hits, 9 Runs, 3 RBI, 4 BB and 6 Stolen bases. On the season he has 46 stolen bases, and 6 of them has come in this week alone. His 17 hits in 46 AB gives him an amazing .370 BA.

His monthly numbers are also staggering. In 28 games and 126 AB, he has 40 hits, 20 runs, 4 doubles, 5 triples, a homer, 7 RBI, 11 Stolen bases and that adds up to a .317 BA. Bringing his season totals to 581 AB, 178 hits, 98 Runs, 33 doubles, 17 triples, 13 homers, 56 RBI and 46 stolen bases. The drop in stolen base numbers has a lot to do with the different managing styles of Manuel and Randolph. Manuel likes to run the bases more than the average manager, but not as much as Randolph who would also do it at stupid times, getting his runners picked off or caught stealing a lot.

So in terms of career numbers, Reyes is just doing amazing. He already has tied his career number for triples for the third time now. In 2005 and 2006 he had 17 triples. So his next triple will push him over the edge in that department. He has a realistic shot of breaking doubles in a season. Last year, he set his high in that stat at 36, so he is only 3 shy of tying, 4 shy of breaking it. He already has more homers than last year (12 last year), although breaking his 2006 total of 19 seems unlikely. He is also one RBI shy of his total from last year (57), and only two shy of his 2005 total (58). His OBP of .366 has shattered his old OBP high in 2006 and 2007 which was .354. He has a shot to set a new high at BA. In 2003 he hit .307, this year he is hitting .306. The other thing to rember is 2003 he only had 274 AB, so his BA this year is a better representation of his skills.

Keep it up Jose! The Mets need this now!

The
Mets will start a crucial, hard, three game set with the Brewers this afternoon
with the Brewers. The Brewers are playing very good baseball right now, and the
Phillies will be playing the Nationals tonight, who also, are playing good
baseball (just not nearly as good as the Brewers since they have been doing it
all year). The Brew Crew will be playing with a chip on their shoulder tonight
as they are trying to have a hit changed to an error on yesterday’s one hitter
by Sabbathia. Anyway, today we will see Santana battle it out with Sheets.

Santana
has been on a roll this month, but faces a challenge today. On the season he is
12-7 with a 2.70 ERA that features only 50 BB and 159 K over 190.0 Innings
Pitched. Interesting to note, with the first out recorded by Santana today, he
will hit the 1500 IP milestone, so congrats Santana. Earlier this year, he was
hit very hard by the Brew crew giving up 4 runs and 3 homers over 6.2 innings.
He took the loss in the game. In August, he has been very good. He is 3-0 over
6 games and 42.1 innings with 11 BB and 34 K. His ERA during that time has been
1.91. Here are some Brewer stats against him:

            Durham 6-15, 2 2B, 2 HR

            Kendal 1-17

            Hall 3-15

            Weeks 4-5, 3B, 2H

Santana
seems like a different pitcher this half of the year, and will look like a very
different pitcher in the eyes of the Brew Crew. So he needs to mow them down
and he will need the offense to light up Sheets.

Sheets
is also having a good year this year. He is 12-7 just like Santana with a 3.05
ERA. In August he has been 2-3 over 5 games, but he has been very good despite
that record (33.2 IP, 2.67 ERA). He beat the Mets earlier this year, giving up
only 3 runs in 7.2 innings. Historically, he has given the Mets fits:

            Castillo 7-19, 3B

            Delgado, 2-12, 2B, HR, 6 K

            Beltran 2-9, 4 K

            Reyes 1-9

            Wright 4-7, 2B, HR

With
the exception of Castillo and Wright, he owns the Mets lineup. The Mets are now
featuring a few players he hasn’t seen before like Murphy, Evans, to name a few
and hopefully they, and the rest of the team will be able to figure him out and
beat him. Lets Go
Mets!

I made a little mistake last week when I said the Mariners were out. They are out of the race, but I need to specify that they are only out of the divisional race, they still have a mathematical chance at the Wild Card. That being said, no team has been completely, mathematically, eliminated from both the Wild Card and the Division yet. There are a few teams though that have been eliminated from one category or the other:
     Eliminated From Division
          Mariners
          Pittsburgh
     Eliminated From Wild Card
          San Diego
          Washington
So none of those teams are a surprise. There are some pretty low numbers out there for both categories today including Washington and Cinncy tied at 2 for division, Baltimore and Oakland tied at 6 for division and the Royals at 7 for the division. So both the Nationals and the Reds can be eliminated today, and that would knock the Nats completely out of postseason. On the wild card side, the Mariners number is 1, Pitts is 4, the Royals and Atlanta are tied at 5 and the Giants have 6. So the Mariners can also be completley eliminated today.

The Mets went to the game today with a mission, win this game, win this day. They completed their mission today. They started off quickly down 2-0 after the first inning but then in the top of the second, Beltran belted out another RBI in his late power surge, which is appreciated and needed. The next inning, Evans and Wright went for back to back putting the Mets into the lead. At that point the Mets never looked back.

So there are few things to take away from this game. One, Wright and Beltran are starting to hit when it matters most, late in the season and this is completely expected of them. Reyes is also starting to get on a late SB tear, which means within the next few days I will do a post looking into his recent surge across the base paths. So things with the offense are starting to fall together. And this is the time because tomorrow, the calender flips to September, which means it is time for the final push.

Pedro did exactly what the Mets needed him to do today, he was effective and he led the team to the win column. He allowed 2 runs at the start of the game but that was it. From there he was on and was the pitcher the Mets needed. Most importantly, when the Mets handed him the lead, he didn't mess it up, he kept it and allowed the Mets to start building a buffer for the pen. The pen was then handed the lead in the seventh inning, and although it took a good number of Mets pitchers, they allowed no runs, stopped any possibly rallies and did their job, which as I have said for the past week, the pen that does their job will win the NL East. A special note should go to Brian Stokes because he really has been doing great things out of that Mets pen since he has been up.

The Mets will try to take the series with a win today over the Marlins. The Marlins were able to bounce back from a disappointing loss with a win last night, so the now the Mets will try to act like the Marlins. The pitching match up today will pit Scott Olsen of the Marlins against Pedro. This is the last game in August, lets win it and get ready for September baseball.

Scott Olsen is 6-8 this year over 27 games and a 4.19 ERA. However, he has been breaking down in the second half of the season. In August he is 0-2 over 5 games and 29.1 innings with a 4.91 ERA. His last win was on July 19th, since then he has gone 0-4 over 7 games and 41 IP posting an ERA of 5.27. One of his August losses were against the Mets where he gave up 5 runs over 5 innings. Here are some Mets numbers against him:
    Reyes 12-28 (.429 BA), 4 2B, 3B, HR
    Beltran 11-24 (.458 BA), 3 2B, 2 HR, 8 RBI
    Wright 8-26 (.308), 4 2B, 2 HR
    Delgado 6-23, 2B, HR
The key here is that the heart of the Mets lineup not only hits well against Olsen, but hits hard against Olsen. So if the Mets can get on base, the heart of the lineup can get them home. That will be the story of the night for the offense. Can they get those runners home so that they can build a lead for the shaky pen. The pen will also need a good start from Pedro.

Pedro is still 4-3 over 15 games this year. His ERA is 5.22 but that doesn't tell the whole story. In August, he is 1-1 over 36.1 innings and an ERA of 3.96. For th emost part this year, he has been getting better as the year has been going on, and this is the time of the year the Mets need him to start performing. His first start this year when he got injured was against the Marlins. He gave up 4 runs over 3.1 innings  before leaving. Here are some Marlin numbers against Pedro:
    Gonzalez 17-46, 4 2B, 2 HR
    Ramirez 2-12, 2B, 3B
    Uggla 3-12, 3B, HR, 8 K
    Jacobs 6-12, 3 3B, HR
    Willingham 1-11, 7 K
The former Met, Mike Jacobs, has Pedro's number. Luckily, Pedro is a combined 4-23 with 15 strikeouts. So the key for Pedro is to keep the Marlins off the base paths and not allow them to get a rally started. That, plus a good pen, will allow the Mets to march to victory. Did I mention that a sturdy pen will lead them to victory?

Lets Go Mets! Take this series!

I feel like I am always talking about who ever has the bullpen will win the division, but its the truth and there is new evidence for it every day. Lets look at the Phillies today and then the Mets today. The Phillies, behind Myers, got the lead against the Cubs. When their pen got the game, the Phillies were winning 5-1. For the first time in three days, the pen got the lead, and was able to keep it (final score was 5-2). So the pen did its job, the Phillies won the game. Could the Mets keep pace?

Well we all know the answer to that, no they could not. The pen was part of the reason why not. Now before I blame a lot on the pen, partial blame has to go to the offense for not bringing in runners who were in scoring position. They didn't give the pen a good buffer, a good lead to protect. That being said, they did give the pen a lead, it was a one run lead, but it was still a lead. They needed to allow no runs for 2.1 innings. They could not do it. First it was Sanchez who let the game tie, and then Heilman, who really has been doing better since last Sunday, became the losing pitcher allowing a run in the ninth inning.

Despite the loss, I am proud of Pelfrey. He wasn't spectacular, but at the same time, he wasn't horrible. He has been horrible this year against the Marlins, so he went against a big Nemisis and was able to pitch effectively. He really could have used more offensive support behind him.

As of right now, there are a few streaks that should be noted. The three ones of importnace are the Cubs, Pirates, and the Dodgers. The only one that is not significant is the Pirates. They have lost 8 straight games and it has just accelerated the inevitable elimination of their club. The other two streaks are important for the Playoffs.

The Cubs are in a seven game winning streak that has separated them from their division. They are now clearly going to be the division champs when a few weeks ago, it was clear they would make the playoffs, but they would have to fight off the Brewers and the Cards all the way. As I am writing this, they are down against the Phillies, so this streak might be over today, but its a good run for a very good team that is just showing off how good they are.

The Dodgers were in it for the division for a while. Now they are 4.5 games back, which they can still over come, but its going to be tough, especially when they are on an 8 game losing streak. This streak has not completely knocked them out of the race, but probably has given the Diamondbacks a lot of momentum. Lets see if the Dodgers can gain back their momentum and make a race of the mediocre division.

The Mets were able to gain a game in the division yesterday thanks to the Phillies pen continued struggles, and now they will try expand their lead by taking on the Marlins tonight in what might be the toughest matchup of the weekend. Both pitchers tonight, Pelfrey and Nolasco, are having career seasons for their respective teams. They are both having great months where the only game they have each lost is vs the other team.

Nolasco is 13-7 with a 3.62 ERA this year. In August, in 5 games, he has been on fire with a 3-1 record and a 2.43 ERA. His only loss this month was not too bad of a start where he gave up 3 runs over 6.2 innings against the Mets. He has faced the Mets a lot this year, 4 games and 3 starts, where he has pitched 20.2 innings for a 1.1 record and a 3.43 ERA. During that time he has only 4 BB and 19 K. However, the Mets batters really see the ball well off of him:
    Beltran 7-17, HR, .500 OBP
    Reyes 9-19, 2 HR, .500 OBP
    Wright 9-19, 3 2B, 2 HR, .500 OBP
    Delgado 6-16, HR, .563 OBP
The key to getting to Nolasco is not letting scoring opportunities go to least. If they get on base, and this shows that they will get on base, they need to score, they need to keep the momentum, they need to back up Pelfrey, who will have his hands full with this Marilin lineup.

The Marlins are the team that has kept Pelfrey from looking like god this year. He is 13-8 this season with a 3.70 ERA. In August, he too has been amazing going 4-1 over 5 games, 36.1 IP, 2.97 ERA. His loss against Florida was ugly, 4.2 IP with 6 ER. Vs Florida in 2008 has been plan ugly. 3 games, 0-3, 12.2 IP, 10.66 ERA. He is going to need his confidence from the last two complete games to carry over into this one. Here are some Marlin stats against Pelfrey:
    Ramierez 2-17, HR
    Jacobs 5-14, 3 2B
    Uggla 6-13 4 2B
    Hermida 3-8
    Ross 3-7
The issue with the fish is that when they get on, they bring them in against Pelfrey. When that happens today, Pelfrey will need to know when and how to stop the bleeding so he can win this game and keep the Mets soaring. Lets Go Mets! Fry the Fish!