213 Miles From Shea

The majority of the winter the Mets stayed rather dormant, working Rule V drafting, front office and managerial positions, and setting up a game plan. We heard from multiple sources this winter that the Mets would probably go bargain hunting in January for players that are similar statistically to the big free agents or similar to players that would cost prospects to trade. This front office team has really held true to the idea. Below is a list of signings (and one almost signing that is still pending) that have been made so far this month. All of these players have signed small deals, for the most part, look to make the Mets better, and fill in the gaps with the low risk, high reward makeover this team needed:

January 3rd: Signed Chris Capuano

January 3rd: Signed Taylor Buchhloz

January 3rd: DFA'd Igarashi

January 12th: Signed Taylor Tankersley

January 14th: Igarashi Clears Waivers, Mets Maintain him

January 14th: Signed Raul Chavez

January 17th: Signed Willie Harris

January 19th: Negotiating with Mutual Interest with Tim Byrdak

January 20th: Officially Signed Chris Young

January 20th: Signed Scott Hairston

The above also ignores the other players the Mets were connected to this month (thus the gap between the 3rd and the 12th) and ignores arbitration.

All in all it has been an exciting month because it has allowed us to re-focus on baseball which was aided by the Mets signing 40% of their opening starting rotation this month. The Mets also have now signed a slew of pitchers this month to compete for spots in Spring Training.

I'm anxious to see how this all works out.

In an interview yesterday, it looks like Terry Collins made it clear that he does expect Castillo to be in camp and he does expect him to compete for a job. Essentially this is not Castillo's job to lose, it looks like it will be an open field this year, and he expects Castillo to be in much better shape because of this. This will be a point I'll probably make again in this article: I know I was very negative on Castillo yesterday, and my feelings are that if he earns the job outright in camp because he is the best player, than I cannot argue with that. If he gets the job, even if he is not the best player, then I have a huge problem with that.

What will make it hard for Castillo this Spring is he must win the job as a starter because of the Mets roster. The Mets have several players that are out of options and two rule 5 players (Emaus and Beato) that must be on the roster Opening Day to stay with the Mets. Plus there are two other players, Murphy and Turner, that also pose as a serious threat to be the starter, making Emaus and Hu backups. So once again, Castillo must be the best to make it with the team up North. The following are last season's (or last available seasons) stats for the contenders, followed by their Career numbers:

Luis Castillo:

(2010): 247 AB, .235 BA, .337 OBP, .604 OPS, .267 SLG, 28 R, 17 RBI, 58 H, 4 2B, 2 3B, 8 SB

(Career): .290 BA, .368 OBP, .719 SLG, .351 SLG

Dan Murphy:

(2010- Minors, 2 Leagues): 45 AB, .400 BA, .438 OBP, .622 SLG, 1.060 OPS, 6 R, 14 RBI, 18 H, 4 2B, 2 HR

(2009 – Majors): 508 AB, .266 BA, .313 OBP, .427 SLG, .741 OPS, 60 R, 135 H, 38 2B, 4 3B, 12 HR, 63 RBI

(Career):.275 BA, .331 OBP, .437 SLG, .768 OPS

Chin-lung Hu:

(2010 – Minors): 208 AB, .317 BA, .339 OBP, .438 SLG, .777 OPS, 37 R, 66 H, 11 2B, 3B, 4 HR, 25 RBI

(Career): .299 BA, .341 OBP, .418 SLG, .759 OPS

Brad Emaus:

(2010 – Minors, 2 Leagues): 445 AB, .290 BA, .397 OBP, .476 SLG, .874 OPS, 79 R, 129 H, 32 2B, 3 3B, 15 HR, 75 RBI

(Career): .276 BA, .364 OBP, .426 SLG, .790 OPS

Justin Turner:

(2010 – Minors, 2 Teams): 396 AB, .316 BA, .374 OBP, .487 SLG, .862 SLG, 69 R, 125 H, 30 2B, 3B, 12 HR, 43 RBI

(Career): .309 BA, .373 OBP, .442 SLG, .815 OPS

There is a lot in common with this entire lot. With the exception of Castillo, they are all roughly the same age and they all have similar stats. Castillo jumps out at having the most major league experience, with Murphy being second.

It would be very unfair of me to look at these numbers and try to draw some sort of conclusion as to who is the best out of this lot, because the numbers are so similar. Instead, I think I'm just going to let the numbers sit for themselves. It is very clear that the starting second basement this year, and the backup infielders will have to be clearly be the best in camp, because of either how similar the numbers are and costs and benefits (like for example, Turner has a higher ceiling than Hu, but Hu needs make the roster in order to stay with the organization).

I will leave with this though:

Terry seems to be leaning to having Pagan bat second, meaning the Mets will be looking for pop out of second base than they used to. If this is the case, then this seems to tip the scales early in favor of either Turner or Murphy getting the starting job with with Emaus and Hu on the bench, and Castillo on the outside.

This will probably sound mean spirited, but whatever. Last night on Metsblog there was the possibility of the of the best Mets news of the off-season. Well actually, it is not the best news, but it is the “UGH FINALLY” news of the season. There are some rumors, and they are just rumors right now, swirling that the Mets will release Castillo to make room for Young and that the Mets do not intend on having Perez on the opening day roster.

This is just great news if its true.

For second base, I know it means losing 6 million dollars, but I think the alternative can be summed up nicely: In the worst case scenario, wouldn't you rather lose with a young second basemen still learning the tricks of the trade, than lose with an aging veteran? Castillo is easily replaceable with all of the young players the Mets have for 2B (Murphy, Turner, Easmus, Valdespin) and it would be much better to get them playing time and get a surprise out of them, than a below status quo year with Castillo.

Perez is another topic entirely. The Mets are going to need pitching help, because every team needs pitching help. Having Perez last year on the roster was like having a handicap. It felt like everynight the Mets were playing shorthanded out there. He has had a lot of time now to make it up, between last season, and this winter in Mexico, and probably Spring Training next month. If he can't play, and doesn't except a minor league position, then he shouldn't be on the team.

Well anyway, you all probably think I'm a mean and horrible person for thinking this is one of the best news items of the off-season, but its true. Lets Go Mets! Let's have

a team that is easy to root for next year!

Quick! Whats the difference between these two items, both found on the Mets Online Shop and both officially licensed by Major League Baseball?

The first Item will get you two bracelets for about 20 bucks, the second will get you one for 27. What's the 17 dollar difference per bracelet for then? That is a question that even the makers of the second product actually cannot tell you. The second item pictured is a phiten bracelet, if you recall, Pedro Feliciano used to wear a phiten tornado around his neck. They are products that claim to use metals like titanium to jive with your bodies natural frequencies to give you better balance, etc.

Rubbish.

As a scientist, I can tell you there is nothing about that product that does anything like that with your body because…your body doesn't have “natural frequencies” like this product claims you have. When you see commercials for this product and similar products, there is a reason why they have to say you can send the product back for a full refund if it doesn't work. They need to say it because there is no science backing up their claims, and without that clause, they are selling snake oil.

The normal defense that somebody uses for these products are the commercials that show people magically getting their balance back with these products. To those people, behold this 10 minute youtube video explaining everything:

When a product makes a claim without evidence, be skeptical. As for the MLB, this isn't a surprise. It helps them make money. I'm not saying the product is completely worthless, I think it looks better than the other bracelet, but it doesn't actually do anything, and for that reason, it is way too expensive.

Word on street is the Mets have signed Chris Young to a one year deal, pending a physical. If the physical pans out, then the rest of this article is relevant. If the physical doesn't pan out, then please disregard the rest of this article. Anyway, with Young the Rotation probably looks something like this:

1. Pelfrey

2. Niese

3. R.A. Dickey

4. Capuano

5. Young

With:

6. Gee

7. Perez (Yeah, right)

Also With:

DL: Johan Santana.

If Spring Training goes the way it should on paper, then the first five will go up north with the team and then the weak link will be phased out when Santana returns from the Disabled List. Below are the numbers for the Top 5 pitchers with their most recent numbers, followed by their career numbers:

Pelfrey: 15-9, 3.66 ERA, 204.0 IP, 1.66 K/BB, 43-41, 4.31 ERA, 1.56 K/BB

Niese: 9-10, 4.20 ERA, 173.2 IP, 2.39 K/BB, 11-12, 4.39 ERA, 2.24 K/BB

Dickey: 11-9, 2.84 ERA, 174.1 IP, 2.48 K/BB, 33-39, 4.70 ERA, 1.71 K/BB

Capuano: 4-4, 3.95 ERA, 66.0 IP, 2.57 K/BB, 46-52, 4.35 ERA, 2.45 K/BB

Young: 2-0, 0.90 ERA, 20.0 IP, 1.36 K/BB (2010), 4-6, 5.21 ERA, 76.0 IP, 1.25 K/BB, 48-34, 3.80 ERA, 2.21 ERA

There are some numbers that immediately pop up when looking at the above stats:

1. Pelfrey, Niese and Dickey all logged in a lot of innings last year, and Dickey would have had more if he was with the team from the start. If the Mets are going to competitive this upcoming season, these three will all need to have similar seasons to last year. Dickey will need to be as good as last year, Niese will have to step up and Pelfrey will need to stay consistent all year. What is promising is all three of them had better numbers than any of their previous systems (but take that with a grain of salt).

2. Looking at the career numbers, three of the five pitchers strike out two batters for every one they walk.

3. Disregarding Young's ERA from last year (it was only 20 innings) and understanding that Capuano's was only in 66 innings of work, those are some nice ERA's

4. Young and Capuano could really be nice surprises. If not, one will be replaced by Santana.

5. This rotation should be a good example as to what Alderson can do.

I am so ready for baseball season.

Yesterday a collection of sources, including Metsblog, reported that the Mets signed relief pitcher Tankersley to a minor league contract and at 213 we couldn't be happier about it. Here's a crash course on Tankersley. He was 27 last season as he was rebounding from elbow injury (catching a theme so far this winter?) anyway, last season he struggled with a 7.50 ERA over 27 appearances and 12 innings of work, which sounds fairly terrible. However in his first two seasons, 2006 and 2007, he made 116 appearances over 88.1 innings and had a 3.46 ERA while walking 55 and striking out 95 (Thats a K/9 of 9.7)

If he can return to that K/9 from a few seasons ago, he will be really valuable. Also, this is indicative of a good move. Here's a bargain bin pitcher, who doesn't have to be on our 40 man, that we are seeing if he can make a come back. Very low risk, very high reward.

All of these compliments and stats aside, that is not why we are so happy to welcome him. Check out this photo of him from last year, first posted at Ted Quarters:

Yeah, check out that facial hair. When Facial Hair Friday returns during baseball season, here's hoping he is still sporting that classy stache.

Kris made his retirement official yesterday, ending his 9 season career that saw him travel to 5 different cities. Benson's career had two sides: normal and crazy. On the normal side of his career, he came up to the majors with considerable talent and was an effective pitcher for his career (4.42 ERA, I'll take that!) but was also bogged down with injuries. Before the 2005 season, he signed a 3 year deal worth about 22.5 million dollars, with the New York Mets. He was then later traded to the Orioles before the 2007 season for Jorge Julio and Jon Maine in one of my favorite, at the time, series of trades by Minaya. Essentially Minaya took Benson and flipped him for two starting pitchers as he would trade Jorge Julio for El Duque. Anyway, Benson struggled with the Orioles due to injuries and living in Baltimore at the time, i can say that fans like him. Specifically the injury that brought him down was a tear of his rotator cuff in 2007. He wouldn't make another major league start until 2009. Normal career right?

Benson felt that his wife's comments and actions were part of the reason for his trade. While we will never know for sure (Minaya denies it, he made a good trade, but Anna could have had impact on Kris's departure) we do know that Anna Benson was a distraction. There were the comments about sex on the Howard Stern show, her inappropriate attire for the Mets holiday party (which is really an outreach event for children) and her comments about Carlos Delgado. If you recall, Delgado did not stand in 2006 for God Bless America as protest for the War In Iraq, which is completely fine. That is not a baseball issue, its a political issue, and Delgado has the full right to display his opinion as he wishes. This upset Anna who made public comments on the issue.

It is murky about if the comments played a role in Kris's trade to the Orioles. To be honest, I like evidence before buying into a claim, so I'm going to take the trade as a baseball move, which was a good one at the time. The actions of Anna Benson though are entangled in Kris Benson's career, so it feels fitting to remember her as well in a Kris Benson retirement article.

What feels like a bad internet meme joke (if you don't get the reference, you should feel better about yourself), the Washington Nationals who at the start of the off-season looked to be exploding their payroll, might actually go in the opposite direction. Even with over paying for Werth, by losing out on other free agents caused their payroll to decrease.

The proof is apparent in this article.

The article projects the Nationals payroll to be about 61.5 million, or as they also point out, about 5 million less than last season. Another way to think of this is if they were able to sign Lee, Lee would have cost them about 33% of their current payroll.

Overall, I have no idea what to make of this, which is why I decided to share it. Does it show that the Nationals were smart in overpaying for Werth? Probably not. Does it show that they failed at the concept at overpaying for players they want? Not entirely, and I am not even sure if you can fail at that. This concept of the Nationals having a decrease in payroll just doesn't sit well with me.

Well, just wanted to share that with you all.

Today officially marked the end of the Chris Carter chapter of Mets history (barring some later return in his career, but I guess that would start another chapter) and its a chapter that really explains a lot about the Mets front office and the Mets fan base while showing the human element of baseball.

The way we acquired Carter says a lot about the front office regime at that time. The Mets traded Billy Wagner to the Red Sox for a player to be named later, who happened to be Carter. At the time, Wagner just came back from recovering and was actually pitching well, but the Mets were essentially out of contention at that point. The Mets could have offered him arbitration at the end of the year, something most people outside of the team whether in hindsight or not, actively agreed with, but the team didn't go that route. Instead Wagner ended up being a type A free agent (I believe, or at least a type B, I'll check on this later) and signed with the Braves sending 2 (or 1 depending on the earlier statement) to Boston.

The Mets instead got Carter. On that evidence alone, Carter was a waste. We got a little over 100 AB's vs first round draft picks.

However there is an odd, human side of baseball that is so woven into the Chris Carter story. I was having a conversation with a history teacher that taught me in High School, that I respect very much (and I will probably exploit this anecdote to a full blown article later) about statistics vs liking players and were talking about we as humans, we have this non-rational pull to players just because we like them, and we will ignore all other statics to do this (like WARP). This is fine for us as fans to have this, but devastating when a front office has this, which one could claim was a problem in the latter half of the Minaya era and why I am personally thankful for Alderson.

As fans, there was no strong statistical reason to like Carter over a slew of other worthy WARP players other than his amazing Spring Training. Lets face it, we fell, or at least I will admit I did, in love with the idea of Carter (for me it was Dan Murphy all over again). Here was a guy who worked really hard, and was constantly being over looked (Mike Jacobs over Carter? Come On!), his homers seemed more frequent than they actually were because of this enchanting American story around him. He had an endearing nickname, “The Animal”, which game us more of illogical reason to like him. He was this entity for us as fans to cling to for hope, although in the “goal” of a baseball season, he meant nothing.

This is why its hard to say good bye to him. It is the right thing for the organization to part ways (no sacred cows) but for the stories and the memories, we want to keep him.

Sometimes I come across something that is so ridiculous, so incredible, that I feel compelled to drop what I'm doing (generally goofing off) and share it hear. I just got back for a week long vacation, and I was catching up on some of my favorite websites, when I came across a link for this.

The above link takes you to the web page for the St. Paul Saint's Professional Baseball team, which is an Independent Professional Team. One of their early promotions is the following:

That is a woopie cushion of the Metrodome. This upcoming year will be the 30th anniversary of its inflation, and of course you probably know about the deflation of the roof with the tear due to snow earlier this month.

Fantastic promotion.

Edit: It is hard to see from the above image, but there are grid lines on the woopie cushion so it looks like the metrodome roof.