213 Miles From Shea

The East is going to be a very interesting division this year. The Red Sox have retooled. The Yankees are the Yankees. The Orioles, quietly, got a lot better. The Rays shifted. It should be very interesting watching these teams have to play each other and then play teams outside of the division.

Boston Red Sox:

From the start of the winter, the Red Sox gave their fans multiple reasons to be excited about this upcoming season. Specifically, they completely restocked their lineup. By adding in Gonzalez and Crawford, they reshape what was already a dangerous lineup into one that is startling. Crawford already knows the pitchers in the division and Gonzalez finally gets the big market stage he needs to become a household name. With their pitching and hitting, they will make a very strong push this season.

New York Yankees:

The Yankees didn't improve too much this season, but they kept their important players from last year, and at the end of the day, they are the Yankees. Their rotation may not have Lee, but it is still dangerous. Their lineup may not have Crawford, but it is still scary. They have all the pieces to make a run in the division this year.

Tampa Bay Rays:

The Rays lost a ton of players this off-seaosn, except not all hope is lost. The rotation is not as crafty as it was last year, but Damon and Manny are interesting additions to the team. Specifically, multiple sources keep saying that Manny is on a mission this year. If those two players somehow make up for a Crawford type player, and the parts of the team that are still around play well, then they have a shot, a really outside shot, but they still have a shot.

Baltimore Orioles:

The Orioles will once again be held back by their pitching again this year. Unless their rotation steps up and surprises people, they will not be in contention, which is a shame because the offense is dangerous. If they stay healthy, which is already a concern during Spring, the infield will have Lee, Roberts, Hardy and Reynolds. They also have Vlad, Markakis and Jones (maybe the best offensive outfield in the majors). If this squad can click on all cylinders, it will be exciting, but that rotation will keep this team down.

Toronto Blue Jays:

It sucks to be the Blue Jays. Between the Yankees and Red Sox, and then the Rays and Orioles, there is just no room in this division for everyone to be on the up.

Last year could have been the start of the changing of the guard in the NL Central. Last season, the Reds matured to the Division Champions their raw talent shows they should be, and the Cards took a seat in second place. The Cards lost another key player during Spring (more on that later) and that opens up this division for the Brewers to compete for second or first.

Cincinnati Reds:

The Reds look to repeat, and they have the players to do so. It starts with the rotation, to the lineup and the bullpen. Everything with this club looks strong. The rotation isn't the best, but it is above average. The bullpen is above average. The lineup is above average. The key for the Reds being above average in all of these areas is the stars (Cueto, Bruce, Votto, Bailey, Chapman) are all on their upsides at the same time. They should be going up from here. Look for the Reds to stay in the hunt if not in first place all season long.

St. Louis Cardinals:

At the start of Spring they looked to be in a position to take back the number one spot, but they lost one of their key players, Adam Wainwright. Usually in baseball one injury doesn't spell the end of a team, but without Wainwright, things are not looking that good for the Cards. They will still be competitive, and will be involved in the race, but this loss brings the Brewers that much closer to the Cards for a division shake up.

Brewers:

The Brew Crew added a key player this off-season in Grienke, and now look really formidable. When Zach comes back, he will round out their rotation nicely and give the Brewers a set of reliable starters day in and day out. On top of that, they already had a solid lineup with the bats. Make no mistake, this team will surprise people who haven't been following the developments in the mid-west baseball scene.

Chicago Cubs:

It is hard to see a scenario with the Cubs winning the division, with the three teams that were mentioned above. If the Cubs offense comes back together this year, and the starters perform well, then they could sneak into the the division race, but really, I just don't see it with the Reds and the Brewers. However, we play the games for a reason.

Houston Astros:

The Astros have an average to a below average starting rotation and an average lineup. With three teams looking strong and then the Cubs, things aren't that bright for Astros. For them to have a chance, the lineup is going to have to explode, and I really do not know enough about the Astros outside of Bourn, Pence, and Lee to see where the explosion is going to come from.

Pittsburgh Pirates:

Clint Hurdle has his work cut out for him. I don't really have to go into this. The lineup and the rotation is a mess, which makes sense because someone in the league has to have that.

Using statistics and awesome math both ESPN and ZIPS have rolled out projections for all of the New York Mets. While it would be difficult to post all of them here, thus you should check the respective sites, I wanted to share the main numbers here:

David Wright:

Generally considered the main fantasy player from this club, the question for Wright is if he can get to 30 homers this year. Last year he got to 29 and ESPN feels he is going to reach the same mark again, while ZIPS feels his power will drop slightly:

ESPN: 606 AB, 95 R, 29 HR, 100 RBI, 19 SB, .294 BA

ZIPS: 586 AB, 94 R, 25 HR, 99 RBI, 23 SB, .283 BA, 36 2B

Jose Reyes:

He could be a real kicker for this squad. Or he could be traded midway through the season

ESPN: 590 AB, 86 R, 12 HR, 56 RBI, 36 SB, .286 BA

ZIPS: 517 AB, 80 R, 11 HR, 54 RBI, 39 SB, .284 BA

Ike Davis:

He was great in his rookie season. What do the computers say for his second time around?

ESPN: 537 AB, 74 R, 22 HR, 75 RBI, .272 BA

ZIPS: 553 AB, 76 R, 22 HR, 79 HR, .257 BA

Jason Bay:

Last year was injury ridden and just an all around disappointment. What about this year for the slugger?

ESPN: 504 AB, 85 R, 19 HR, 84 RBI, .268 BA

ZIPS: 444 AB, 71 R, 20 HR, 76 RBI, .252

And you can visit the sites for the rest. The two players they seem to really differ on would be Reyes and Bay. ZIPS has Reyes playing a lot less than ESPN, yet putting up similar numbers, suggesting that if Reyes would play equal to ESPN, he would rack up more numbers. The same situation happens to Bay. ZIPS has Bay playing a lot less, and actually putting up slightly better numbers in terms of Homers, suggesting that the ZIPS system predicts more power out of Bay than the ESPN computer.

But, we play the games for a reason, so we'll see how true any of this becomes.

The AL Central, from the vantage point of the pre-season, looks to be a three team race again this season. The Twins, White Sox, and Tigers all have good shots at taking the division this year, with the Twins and the White Sox on the inner track. Outside of the race track are the Indians and the Royals who are left struggling again this season, and will need a lot of surprises on each of their squads to come away with the division title.

Minnesota Twins:

The Twins play through tough positions often, and generally come out well, which is why I hardly ever worry about them. Last season they were without one of their best batters, played in a new ballpark and Mauer struggled with power all season, yet they still ended the season in first place. Their pitching is also solid. If they stay healthy, they will be in the driver seat for the division crown.

Chicago White Sox:

The White Sox will make things very interesting in the division. They have also have a solid rotation, and the addition of Dunn will add some much needed pop into this offense. If the bats gel together at the start of the season, they could have one of those classic AL Central races where they change 1-2 with the Twins all year long.

Detroit Tigers:

As of now the Tigers are looking in, and that is only because they were at .500 last season. They can easily take this division this season. Victor Martinez rounds out their lineup nicely, and if the the lineup doesn't fall back to injuries like last year, then they can cause a lot of noise. The key player for me here is Brad Penny. If Penny surprises in the rotation, then they will have another key weapon to push back the Sox and Twins.

Cleveland Indians:

The Indians are held back by their rotation. Their lineup could be dangerous, but doesn't seem that bad when after Carmona, the rest of the rotation just isn't that proven yet. They really didn't add much this year, so things look bleak.

Kansas City Royals:

Things just look bad here. The key bat addition is Frenchy, then things are definitely looking bad. The real problem for the Royals is the starting rotation. They traded away Grienke and they also lost Meche to retirement. Things aren't so bad with this team though. The farm system is ridiculous. In other words, it is a box of chocolates. If a lot of the young guys matriculate to the big leagues, who knows what will happen.

The NL West was a major surprise last season. At the start of the season it looked like it would be a three team race of the Dodgers/Rockies/Giants with the Padres and Diamondbacks looking in from the outside. It also looked like it was the Dodgers who had the early advantage. Then the surprise of the year (that within one game reduced itself to nothing) was the Padres who led the division for the majority of the season, lost it towards to the end and got into a three team race with the Giants and the Rockies. The Giants would go on to win the division (and the World Series) and the Rockies would lose out in the playoff race to the Padres. The Padres would then lose the play in situation with the Braves who would go into the playoffs. The moral of the story is that surprises happen which is why we play the games.

Anyway, this year looks to be a three team race again with the Giants vs the Rockies, the Dodgers sitting on the periphery with the Padres and the Diamondbacks sitting on the outside.

San Francisco Giants:

The World Series champions have the best rotation int he division. Like all teams with a strong rotation, they need just enough offense to get them through the season. Last year it was easy to mock the lineup but the lineup showed last year that they could surprise people with offense. If Posey has a big season again, and they get consistent offense from somewhere else, this team will be in the race all season long.

Colorado Rockies:

The Rockies were handicapped by critical injuries last season which held them back from taking over the division. They also have a strong pitching staff, and they have a strong lineup, probably the second best lineup in the Division. If another pitcher outside of Jimenez and De La Rosa steps up, then the Rockies will be in the race all season long.

Los Angeles Dodgers:

The Dodgers probably have the best lineup in the division, the question for them will be the rotation. Billingsley and Kershaw will be reliable, but the rest of the rotation is questionable for how good they could be. Similar to the Rockies, if someone could step up, like Kuroda here, and carry over for the bats, then they will be able to make this division into a three team race, if not, this division will come down to the Rockies and Dodgers.

San Diego Padres:

The Padres could surprise again, however it is unlikely. The Padres have a lot of young players in the lineup and in the rotation that were good last year, but they all need to repeat that in order the team to be good again this year. In other words, they have to hope that the rest of the league hasn't figured them out yet. They started to run into this at the end of last season, and it could come again strong this year. If these players can rise above this, then they will contend. If not, then they won't. Not having Gonzalez also hurts.

Arizona Diamondbacks:

They made some good moves this offeseason, it just isn't their time yet. They brought in people that want to win and they unloaded risky players like Reynolds that were very all or nothing. The rotation isn't there this season so it will be really difficult for them to compete in this division.

Interesting news from MLB Trade Rumors yesterday that former Mets closer, Branden Looper retired.

Essentially, Looper was already retired. But the Cubs offered him a 1 million dollar contract if he made the major league club, so he came out of retirement to Spring Training. The Cubs told him yesterday that he wouldn't make the team, so he decided to actually retire. According to MLBTR, he had offers from other teams, but he only wanted to pitch with the Cubs to be close to his family.

The image of Lopper I have burned in my mind is him on the mound rubbing his pitching hand with a nervous grin on his face as he gives up a homer that allows the other team to get back in the game. Yep. That image will always be with me.

It's that time of year again when I get really hypocritical and do what I what I say other's shouldn't do: Try to predict the season without knowing other teams that well. Realizing that this is hypocritical, I'm not going to predict finishes like I have done in previous years. For me to predict finishes, especially in the AL West, my weakest division, would essentially be me saying “Hey, here's everything that is being talked about this division. I'm only going to extrapolate out of what is said nationally, and not spend the hours of research looking into every team and the histories of their players”. Instead what I will do, is talk about the odds of each team winning the division, what has to go right, and what could go wrong.

The AL West finds itself back in a familiar position with no one team coming off of a dominating off-season. The Rangers return with their powerful lineup, but shotty rotation. The Athletics return with their powerful rotation, and an average lineup. The Angels happen to be above average and both, and the Mariners have King Felix and Ichiro….and it starts to fall apart from there.

The Oakland Athletics:

They have the pitching. The question for them is if the lineup can score runs. Mets fans from last year will remember that for the better part of the season, the starting pitching on the Mets was phenomenal. The bats just didn't hit enough to back up the pitching (nothing hurts more losing a game 1-0, 2-1, because the offense couldn't get it done at the plate). If the A's get some offense surprises (Willingham anyone?) during the season, look for them to have a legitimate shot at the title. If not, it will be a frustrating season, because that pitching should carry them.

The Texas Rangers:

A big part of the Ranger push last season was Wilson and Lee at the top of that rotation, and then the Texas bats just bruising everyone up. Now with Lee gone, and no one really to replace him, the Rangers will have to rely on the rest of that rotation to make it through the season. The Rangers remind me a bit of the Phillies before they got dominating with pitching, in that the Rangers have enough offense that they just need quality starts out of their pitchers, and they will win ball games. So for Texas, if the rest of the rotation (Lewis, Hunter, Holland, Harrison) can get those QS's, then this team will play deep into September. If not, or if the offense doesn't click, the team will disappear quick.

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim:

As for balance in the division, the Angels win. Between Santana, Weaver and Haren, they have a solid starting of the rotation. That type of rotation becomes more dangerous in the post-season, when 4 and 5 don't matter much. Their lineup isn't bad, but it isn't great. They will need one or two guys in the lineup to have a surprise season. If their forth starter, Kazmir, has an old style Kazmir season, then this team suddenly starts to look a lot better. The other problem for the Angels is the bullpen is a bit of a question mark.

The Seattle Mariners:

They have Felix Hernandez. Outside of that there are a lot of questions. Can Bedard come back? Can the lineup hit for power? Can the lineup score runs? The Mariners didn't bring a whole lot in this off-season in terms of position players, and they were one of the teams that needed to to have a good shot. What is working for the Mariners is that this division is essentially open, so as long as they don't allow themselves to be the punching bag, like how they are projected to be, then they could make noise. I just really doubt it.

In conclusion:

This division has three teams in it that can make a run. Because of that, plus the division only having 4 teams, this division is prime for any one of these teams that get off to a hot stretch at the end of summer to swoop in and take the division.

Just Kidding.

Yesterday was an offensive explosion for the Mets. It brought on that awkward feeling of “I'm so excited we are scoring runs right now but please save this for the regular season.” The Mets walloped the Cards by the score of 16-3, with the majority of the scoring done by starters against starters early in the game. The Mets had 23 hits to back up those 16 runs. There are so many notable tidbits from this game that it is hard to distinguish what stats are the most important stats going forward, so here are a bunch of statements about the game, in no particular order of importance.

1) There were five Mets players who hit homers yesterday. David Wright (2). Angel Pagan (3). Brad Emaus (1). Josh Thole (3 – Also it was a PH). Den Dekker (the Upper Decker, not my nickname for him, but quite funny) (1). Thole has flashed some power this spring and now I am really curious to see how that aspect of his game carries over to the regular season.

2) The Mets had two players go 4-4: David Wright and Emaus. It is always good to see Wright go 4-4 because it reminds us that he is the cornerstone of the team. It was really nice though to see Emaus with the big day as he showed that hey, he can be starting second basemen, and the offense won't totally suck because of it. He showed some power, but that OBP in the 8th spot would be really nice in the regular season (to help turn that almost automatic out in the 9th spot into a productive out).

3) The pitching was good too! Capuano allowed 3 runs, 2 earned in 5 innings of work. Then everyone else pitched a scoreless inning (Boyer, Krod, Buchholz, Parnell). For the most part, the pen is looking pretty good.

Well one week left of Spring, and my optimism is rising. Is yours?

EDIT:

I forgot to include a Castillo update. Castillo had another 0-4 day with the Phillies yesterday, bringing his totals in his first two days to be 0-8.

“When the best thing about a team is the hamburger available at its stadium, it’s bad.”

– Jeff Passan

The upsides of the internet are huge. With instant connections and the ability to get essentially an infinite amount of information, people can become educated on a wide range of topics very quickly. At the same time, when people don't look fully into a situation (and I am guilty of this as well, you are probably too) the same information gets repeated and repeated. A small slice of the story gets re-articulated so much that it becomes the whole story. This is not exclusive to sports as it happens in every field. For example, why do people believe that the Health Care Policy that was passed a year ago has “Death Panels”? Well one news network started saying it, it was then repeated by all of the people that watch that news network, it was then blogged about by people who used that news network to get their information, assuming they were getting the whole picture then people read those blogs and watched that news network. Suddenly, people's second sources are just rehashing the material of the first source, and that diverse view an individual thinks they are getting on a topic is really just a microscopic narrow issue made to mask the rest of the story.

What does this have to do with the New York Mets?

Since the end of last season, when the Mets are talked about on a national level, there were two stories. They either A) talked about ownership issues and borrowing money (which is important to talk about) or B) Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez.

The problem then arises when people want to talk about the Mets, that are only getting their information from those two stories. If those two stories were the limit of our team, then yes, I would agree with the quote and the article from Jeff Passan, that the best thing going for the Mets is the food at our ballpark. There is a lot in his article I agree with. I just don't agree with the scope of it.

If you talk to a Mets fan, they can tell you tons of things that are positive about the team. We have a young first basemen who is posed to have a big sophomore year and show the league his skills with the glove. His rookie year was shadowed by the rookie year of Heyward, Posey and others, so he isn't a national name yet. He's an asset to this team. Ike Davis could vary will be a future cornerstone to this team. That's exciting. In addition to Ike Davis, the Mets have the blooming career to Angel Pagan who is also poised for a break out year. Pagan has that exciting mix of speed, glove ability, hitting and occasional power that brings hope to the season.

Finally, the Mets have Sandy Alderson, who has worked with a tight budget before, and so far in spring, has seemed to bring the right people aboard the Mets.

I'm not entirely angry with Jeff's article. I'm upset with the proposed scope of the article, and it what it represents to the outside-Mets-baseball-world. What Jeff says about the Mets ownership troubles are true and worrisome. However, the paint the picture this bleak for the entire Mets organization really does a disservice for anyone wanting to get a full picture of what the Mets have in their immediate future.

Oliver Perez has a new minor league contract with the Washington Nationals. According to MLB Trade Rumors, Perez will start the season in Triple A while Burnett and Slaten go north with the team. So as pitchers start to get injured or ineffective in during the season. Perez may get an opportunity to move up. When that happens, he will have to be paid the league minimum from the Nationals, so the Mets will save that little bite out of the 12 million left on his contract.

The interesting theme that has developed this week is that this is the second player to be released with from the Mets and then go to an NL East team. The first was Casillo who made his debut for the Phillies, going 0-4 at the plate.

If you remember, last year this occurred with Nelson Figueroa, who went on to struggle with the Phillies and the Astros.