213 Miles From Shea

A few days ago, an article was posted on Fox Sports about how the Mets will be one of 5 teams that won’t make the World Series this year. Here’s the actual point of the article, the author labels 5 teams that did not improve at all during the offseason. To me, that is a little different than their claim but whatever.

I’m not going to sit here and say that the Mets are going to make the World Series, or that the Mets will even be in contention. It is much more likely that the reverse is true. However, this claim is a little fast and loose, as there are real possibilities of things going right, that have the Mets being in contention.

In short, if I was Terry Collins, this article is in locker room. But not just by itself.

In the real world, I’m a teacher. One of the things that I know is really important for my students is me going beyond just filling up my students with hope. I need to fill them with hope AND give them something tangible to build on and grasp. The Mets have a few tangible things that they must be, and probably already are, aware of.

First, the 2011 Arizona Diamondbacks. This article brings up a great point that 28 out of 30 analysts at Baseball Prospectus had the Dbacks finishing last place in the NL West. The West last year, is not like the East this year, but there were enough teams with enough talent + the surprising season from the Padres before, to paint a really dark picture for the Dbacks. Last year, I said at this time that the Diamondbacks were only team with no chance to be out of the cellar last season. They had a youth explosion that led them.

There are similarities to both squads. Arizona had a young lineup that fully broke out last year, led by Justin Upton. The Mets have a young lineup that have several players on the brink of breaking out. There is David Wright at the helm with the young stars of Davis, Murphy and Duda. If they break out, our line up, (Tangible Material), would be even better than it was last year, and last year we had Jose Reyes. The media perception of losing Reyes is stronger than the reality since we missed so many pieces last season.

Going into 2011, the problems for the Diamondbacks was their pitching. Sound familiar? The Mets critically upgraded their bullpen this season. It isn’t the best bullpen in the league, but having a set 9th and 8th inning guy this season is a huge step ahead of last year. Plus, having Ramon Ramirez adds much needed depth.

So the last question mark is the rotation, which also has the possibility of breaking out, but with a lot of questions. Will Dickey return to his form? How will Niese and Gee respond to successful seasons? Will Santana be even 70% of himself? Will Pelfrey return to glory days? Same questions with different players for Arizona last year, and their players played with something to prove and carried the team.

The Mets are in the same situation.

The players on the Mets are playing with something to prove. We likely won’t be going to the World Series, but to be written off at the beginning of the season is powerful material to play with, when players have something to prove.

So if the Mets were my High School students, I would show them what others are saying. I would show them how other players in similar positions succeeded. I would show them How they succeeded with practical, tangible steps. Finally, I would show them why they, as the Mets, can make it happen.

Personally, I am more surprised that Cespedes is not a Marlin, rather than him being an Athletic.

Going into this offseason, even before the Marlins showed how they were going to spend money, it just felt that Cespedes would be a good fit for the Marlins. He is a young, talented OF who would join Stanton and play in a market that would go crazy for Yoenis. He would create new sources of revenue for the team in a way that other players could not.

As it turned out, the Marlins filled those needs with Jose Reyes and were looking to lock Cespedes up for 6 years. If Cespedes turns out to be a good player, the 6 years, slightly under 40 million the Marlins were offering seemed to be a really good deal for the Marlins franchise, and a deal that would drive me mad knowing that Cespedes would help with the age factor on that Marlins squad.

Out of no where, the Athletics came in, offered a similar deal in terms of money, but only 4 years. For the Athletics, this prevents them from finishing in last place now, and giving them star power on their roster when they inevitably move to a new stadium in San Jose. For Cespedes, he gets a contract that would release him at age 30, in his prime. If he has 4 good years as an Athletic, he would be looking at a big pay raise. Baseball Prospectus came out with a report saying that Cespedes was looking for ethier a 4 year deal or an 8-10 year deal, which would make sense. That would be a contract that lets him out right at his prime, or one way after. In other words, he would avoide that awkward 32 year old free agent when teams may be hesitant to offer a lot of years and a lot of money.

For the Marlins though, this could potentially be a major loss. The team could use some youth and the farm system is running dry. They have put themselves in the same position now that the 2006-07 Mets did in that they must win now, because age and injuries are coming up right behind them.

Baseball Prospectus released their 2012 Prospects List (No Subscription)! Let’s see where the Mets ranked overall on their list:

25. Matt Harvey
30. Zach Wheeler
89. Jeurys Familia

This short list isn’t too surprising for a few reasons:

1. There’s always a hype factor with prospects, and these are the three players with the most hype in the Mets system
2. On top 100 lists, even though their placements sometimes shuffle up and down, these are the three players always included
3. While the Mets farm system is on the rise, many of the pitchers are still in that “C” range, where they need one more season in order to be labeled as a top caliber prospects.

I’m really curious to see how the farm system appears on these lists next season, as I feel, because I’m a crazy optimist, that the Mets will have a lot of players break upwards this season.

Living in Newark, NJ now (yes, the name of this website has been irrelevant for the last 6 months), I get a good fill of New York sports news, which is great. One thing I miss though is Baltimore sports news. Baltimore sports news, specifically about the Orioles, is a combination of extremely depressing, pathetic and sometimes absolutely bizarre.

My Dad sent me an article today, explaining that the Orioles are effectively banned from South Korea.

Really. Like actually they can no longer scout the Korean Baseball Organization. The league actually governs the High School and College games in the country as well, so the Orioles are no longer welcomed to scout Korean players, right now, at any level.

How did this happen?

Last month, the Orioles signed Kim Seong-min, one of the best pitching prospects in South Korea. The left hander is 17, and signed a 550,000 dollar contract and will be with the team in Minor League Spring Training. According to the Baltimore Sun, “Kim…was not reportedly in his final year of high school when the Orioles signed him”*. the Korean Baseball League is upset at the Orioles because in their eyes, since Kim was not out of high school yet, the O’s breached protocol by swooping in and signing Kim. The League now wants overall tighter regulations when dealing with the MLB and Korean prospects (essentially a home field advantage in keeping their own citizens).

I heard a very interesting take on this situation on radio today. There is the complete possibility that the Orioles really like Kim, knew the rules, but didn’t want to risk losing Kim. So they decided to risk their future in scouting in Korea for signing Kim. I guess this is possible.

Overall, I just find it really entertaining that the Orioles organization is now essentially banned from scouting the entire country of South Korea. Judging by the Orioles record of signing players out of South Korea, which would just be Kim, I don’t think the O’s are too torn up about this.

* Encina, Eduardo. “O’s scouts can’t go to S. Korean Tourneys” 2/10/12 Baltimore Sun

Baseball Prospectus rolled out their first versions of their projections for this year, projections they promise to update several more times throughout the off-season (which makes sense as players playing time can sometimes be difficult to predict right now), while I don’t want to spill all the beans, mainly because you have to pay to look at the spreadsheet and their work is worth paying for, I did want to share some of their great work.

I can’t stress enough how worth it is to buy a subscription to Baseball Prospectus for this spreadsheet and access to their articles, written by people that can actually write and stuff.

Anyway, let’s look at what BP thinks some of the Mets Position Starters will do this year:

Wright: .290 BA, .373 OBP, 34 2B, 20 HR, 80 RBI, 19 SB
2011 Numbers: .254 BA, .345 OBP, 23 2B, 14 HR, 61 RBI, 13 SB
Career Numbers: .300 BA, .380 OBP

It looks like BP’s formula are targeting Wright for a bounce back season. His averages look below his career numbers, but look a lot better than his 2011 numbers. The only stat I disagree with is his RBI. If he plays the full season, I feel he will be more in the 95-105 range for RBI’s.

Davis: .269 BA, .348 OBP, 20 HR, 72 RBI
2011 Numbers: .302 BA, .383 OBP, 7 HR (35 G)
Career Numbers: .271 BA, .357 OBP

They are predicting Davis very close to his career numbers. His numbers drop off mainly because he was in a hot streak when he got inured last year. However, the optimist feels the homerun numbers are low, real low.

Murphy: .288 BA, .336 OBP, 11 HR, 70 RBI
2011 Numbers: .320 BA, .362 OBP, 6 HR, 49 RBI
Career Numbers: .292 BA, .343 OBP

The way BP sees Murphy is that his hitting frequency was too high last year, and they see his numbers dropping off from his career. They do see a big turn around in his power numbers. You are now going to see the real fan in me jump out. I think his numbers will be higher than this. I’m with R.A. Dickey in thinking that Murphy will have a breakout season.

Bay: .255 BA, .343 OBP, 18 HR, 63 RBI
2011 Numbers: .245 BA, .329 OBP, 12 HR, 57 RBI
Career: .274 BA, .369 OBP

I agree with BP on Bay’s numbers. Mainly because he didn’t really give any reason yet to change my mind. Since expectations for him have been lowered, these numbers seem quite good (18 homers? I’ll take that!)

Metsblog posted today portions of fan Q&A with R.A. Dickey.

At one point, Dickey was asked if he was going to still throw two speeds of Knuckleballs, to which he responded “3”.

What does this actually mean?

I haven’t found anything about him pitching or practicing yet an even faster knuckleball, or a slower one, so I doubt that (although if someone can find a link and post it, then I’ll gladley accept it and cross out the rest of this article).

What I’m interpretting this to mean is that he is throwing an in between pitch, maybe even closer to a traditional knuckleball, and he is labeling it as a 3rd speed now. R.A.’s normal knuckleball is a lot faster than normal knuckleballs, and his slow pitch, that he used a few times a game last year, is much slower, so I wonder now if he is using a normal speed one as well.

If he is, I am interested to see how he mixes them up.

Ever wanted to watch a guy get his hair cut for 11 minutes?

You’re Welcome…I guess.

But seriously, the most ridiculous part of that video is probably his hair being authenticated. Really baseball? He is donating his hair to charity.

As odd as him getting his hair authenticated is, it still isn’t as odd as the entire hair cut being televised.

The new Blue Jays logo is awesome. Really classy.

The old one wasn’t terrible, but it wasn’t as good as the new one.

After a day walking around New York City on Saturday, I will never see the old Toronto logo in the same eyes ever again. I am very interested in street art, graffiti and how different groups take popular symbols and put a twist on them. I was walking down Sixth Ave on Saturday (South of 16th Street) and saw a sticker for the New York City Green Jays on a cross walk post.

You can see the logo on their facebook page.

The New York Green Jays, as they describe themselves are a group that celebrates the diversity of art in New York City, and their logo recreation is clever, timely, and represents their youth movement.

I just have a feeling the Toronto Blue Jays wouldn’t be too thrilled about it.

There was a post on MLB Trade Rumors this week that explains how interesting of a position the Orioles are in. The article just lists 11 players on the Mets 40 man roster, who are now out of Options, yet are all pretty much competing for spots on the 25 man roster. The players below have a lot of qualities in common, like they were touted prospects who didn’t pan out. A few of them are victims of horrible Orioles management, others are victims of other teams messing up, and then being picked up by the Orioles bargain hunting strategy.

Could their mistakes be the fortunes of other teams at the end of Spring looking to plug up holes? Like the Mets bench search? Here is the list of players:

• Robert Andino
• Chris Davis
• Dana Eveland
• Jim Johnson
• Jai Miller
• Troy Patton
• Clay Rapada
• Nolan Reimold
• Alfredo Simon
• Pedro Strop
• Taylor Teagarden

There are few names that jump out on the list. For Example, there are some names that the Orioles will try their hardest to keep on the roster. However, as they look for veteran bats, other names might become available in a small time trade. Nolan Reimold is a right handed bat that would interest me. I don’t know where he would fit on the Mets, but he’s interesting. I saw him play in the minors and he had a lot of pop, a LOT of pop, but he didn’t pan out in the majors, yet.

Ultimately, I don’t think this list really impacts the Mets at all, but it may make for an interesting Spring in terms of trades, claims, especially in Baltimore.