213 Miles From Shea

The crunch on the 40-man roster has started today as the Mets have activated 7 players from the 60-Day DL back to the 40-man. The following players were activated:

1. Ike Davis
2. Josh Edgin
3. Matt Harvey
4. Jeremy Hefner
5. Jenry Mejia
6. Bobby Parnell
7. Scott Rice

This should be evened out by the seven free agents the Mets are about to lose off of the 40-man:

1. David Aardsma
2. Tim Byrdak
3. Pedro Feliciano
4. Frank Francisco
5. Aaron Harang
6. LaTroy Hawkins
7. Daisuke Matsuzaka

The Mets would like to get Hawkins back and the Mets will probably drop some players on the 40-man. The Mets created some room on the 40-man by outrighting Greg Burke and Sean Henn. In addition Baxter was claimed by the Dodgers and Carson by the Angels.

This will probably be enough to create room to add key players to the 40 man from the farm system to protect them in the Rule V draft but I wouldn’t be surprised to see more players go to create more room on the 40-man.

You can make the very strong argument that the Hot Stove has been lit, especially for the Mets, for a while now (and I’d actually make an argument that with constant news coverage of typical “off-season” stories that the Hot Stove never really goes out during the year) but with the Red Sox winning the World Series last night the off season is now in full swing.

The Mets already took care of one of two of their primary concerns for the off-season:

1. Extend Terry Collins
2. Matt Harvey to have surgery

With that off the books, here is the next set of questions for the Mets:

1. Davis+Duda+Satin = 1 almost decent firstbasemen. Considering that Duda or Davis could be healthy all season, right now one could assume they would produce near the same amount. So what happens to the other? Could they be moved in a trade?
2. Corner Outfield: Mets could use a true clean up hitter OR a true lead-off hitter. OR both.
3. Shortstop: The Internal options fell way short of expectations last year.
4. Veteran Starter: With Harvey out, the Mets rotation becomes that much weaker. In addition to the yearly stacking up of internal options for starters, the Mets could use a dependable starter in the rotation, one who as early as Spring Training instill good habits in the Mets young crop of starters.
5. Can the Mets resign Hawkins? Who leads up to the closer?
6. The 40-Man crunch the Mets are currently in.

Well, I’m curious to see how these questions are answered in the upcoming months.

Almost every Mets related site this weekend posted a story about how the Mets are about to face a 40 -Man Roster cut. In case you didn’t read any of it, the incredibly short version is the Mets have 8 players coming off of the 60 day DL list in November and 8 free agents which means their 40 man is already set. This leaves zero room for the Mets to protect prospects. There is a lot of speculation of cuts (like Valdespin) but the Mets are running out of room.

All caught up? Good.

I’m wondering if this will push the Mets to make a trade. The players the are crowding the 40-man (from the side of being on the roster and trying to get on) are of similar caliber. Captain Kirk and Lutz are good examples of this. They have potential, but not a lot of ceiling and are infected with an odd emotional attachment.

There’s probably not much the Mets could get in a trade for some of these players, but trading where we give up more 40-man players than we receive will help this problem go away.

The other, more optimistic, way to look at is this forces the Mets early in November to make a trade for a big player, or right before Rule V draft in December. This would involve trading one of Niese/Gee and one of Duda/Davis. A trade good also provide the spark to the fan base because right now it’s all talk about bringing in other talent, and frankly, starting to get boring.

Two developing stories could impact the Mets off-season plans.

With Harvey down, the Mets are in the market for a veteran pitcher because any internal options for the Mets would involve rookies. While rookies are great for 2015, they could use a guiding voice in 2014 and the Mets could use some additional help in 2014 if they want to be a surprise contender. Anyway Arroyo reported yesterday that he doesn’t expect to receive a qualifying offer. If he had such an offer from the Reds, then that means negotiations with him would have to start at 14 million, or 13 a year for two years. He will still cost a chunk of change but this drastically drops his leverage (which in my opinion would be a huge overvalue).

Rumors are also swirling that the Rays will try to move Price this off-season. The Mets are not in the market for Price, and would have to give up way too much to potentially get him (and that’s with me over valuing our own prospects). With the price for Price so high, that could make the Mets look like a more reasonable option to work with for a trade.

You know those moments in life when you are stuck between the decisions of something you really want to do vs. something you have to to do?

Matt Harvey had to make one of those decisions yesterday. He had the “choice” of doing a rehab throwing program, or having Tommy John, which would knock him out for 2014, but prevent re-injury in 2014 (and also does put the whole, “will he be the same pitcher” question into play).

I put choice in quotations because in reality, he, the Mets brass, and us all knew this really wasn’t a choice. It would be too easy to just rehab the tear back to strength. It would really be nice to live with the delusion that if he made a few starts in the fall league his arm wouldn’t re-tear by mid-June of next year. He had to get surgery. This is the common route for pitchers to go.

He is also getting surgery at a good time. If he had it back in August, there would be questions about him being able to rush the progress to get back by the end of 2014. He will be solidly out for all of 2014 meaning, with everything else going right, knock on wood, he will be ready for 2015.

But this leaves us with the question now what. Luckily for the Mets the end of the season wasn’t too bad in the starting pitcher department. The following looks to be solid:

– Jon Niese- Dillon Gee
– Zack Wheeler

(Unless they move one of the above for a powerful bat, which wouldn’t be too bad of an idea).

There is Syndegaard and Montero in the organization looking to move up late 2014/early 2015. After a horrible start Daisuke didn’t look terrible in his last month. Maybe they try to invite Harang back to spring training.

Or maybe the Mets look for a small 1-3 year deal on a mediocre pitcher while moving Gee or someone else to get another key player.

I’m not really sure what happens now that Harvey is out for the year. But I don’t think the 2014 season was resting all on Harvey. Originally it was resting on our depth of pitching talent, which is weakened now but not gone.

The 2013 playoffs officially start tonight but really started last night. The 2013 season could not be contained in 162 games forcing the Rays and Rangers to meet in a one game play in to the Wild Card game which has also become a one game play in.

If exciting has a definition, that should be it. The Rays have to play two one game play-ins to get into a best of 5 playoff series.

But once again, I feel nothing to the playoffs. And I’ve had this problem for years now.

Back when I had zero expectations about the Mets, I still loved watching the playoffs. I remember rooting for the Red Sox in 2003 and 2004, pulling for the White Sox in 2005. My dreams were answered in 2006 when the Mets finally made it!

And then, nothing.

I couldn’t bring myself after the collapse of 2007 to watch the playoffs.
Ditto for 2008.
The toils off the field of the Mets in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and this year just zapped me of any emotional energy I have left to care for baseball.

Maybe it’s unfair to blame the Mets. Throughout these years I graduated high school, then college, and have been teaching for a few years now. Maybe I’m too invested in other things to care about the playoffs. However, I still watch the NFL playoffs if my team isn’t in it, so why not baseball?

Whatever. I’ll fake it this October to try to make myself care again.

Go Pirates, or Rays or something.

The season is finally coming to an end and despite how difficult it has been at times, I’ll still wake up tomorrow being disappointed there is no Mets baseball to follow, no on the field optimism about play in a future year, etc. At least the Mets are ending the year on a high note as they induct Mike Piazza into the New York Mets Hall of Fame today. The last game of the year will feature Jon Niese squaring off against Marco Estrada.

Jon Niese will be making his 24th start of the year. So far he has pitched 137.0 innings with a 3.74 ERA and an 8-8 record. In his last three starts he has pitched 20.1 innings with a 3.10 ERA. Niese has started against the Brewers four times pitching 19.0 innings and allowing 14 earned runs, which brings his ERA to 6.52. The Brewers have the following numbers on Niese:

Ramirez 4-14, 2B, HR
Lucroy 3-8
Gomez 1-5
Aoki 1-3
Bentancourt 0-3

The Mets bats try to break out the lumber for a final show against Marco Estrada who is 7-4 over 120.0 innings of work this year with a 4.02 ERA. In the month of September, he has pitched three games totaling 19.0 innings with a 1.74 ERA. In his career he has pitched in 5 games against the Mets totaling 4.1 innings where he has allowed 7 earned runs. However, very few of these Mets have seen him:

Murphy 0-1
Tejada 1-1
Wright 0-1
Turner 0-1

Lets Go Mets!

The Mets and Brewers continue their final series of the season today as the Mets look to rebound from yesterday’s 4-2 loss. Today Aaron Harang gets the start again. On the season he is 5-12 over 137.1 innings with a 5.57 ERA. He’s pitched 17.0 innings over three games with a 4.24 ERA. He has not faced the Brewers yet this season, but because of all of his time with the Reds, he has the following numbers against Brewers:

Ramirez 21-61, 2B, 3B, 5 HR
Lucroy 0-5
Aoki 1-3
Bentancourt 0-3
Gomez 0-1

Jimmy Nelson is pitching in his fourth major league game today, making his first start. So far he has pitched 5.0 innings allowing 1 hit, 2 walks and four strikeouts. In the minors this year he pitched 27 games for 152.1 innings with a 3.25 ERA. It’s safe to say that he has never faced the Mets or anyone in the Mets organization in a major league game before.

Lets Go Mets!

The Mets and Brewers play the second game of the series tonight as the Mets look for a couple of bright moments at the end of the season. First, the Mets will be looking to see if David Wright is ok after being hit in the head yesterday (I’m in the camp thinking he should at least sit out tonight, if not the rest of the season). Second, Eric Young stole two bases last night, now tied in the lead for stolen bases in the National League with 44, so now he has a few games to get the overall lead. Carlos Torres gets the start tonight as he goes up against Yovani Gallardo.

Torres is 4-5 over 32 games this year with 80.1 innings of work and a 3.36 ERA. He is 1-3 over 25.0 innings in September with a 4.68 ERA. In his career he has pitched 2.1 innings against the Brewers and has allowed 2 earned runs who have the following numbers against Torres:

Ramirez 0-3
Gomez 1-2, 2B
Lucroy 0-1
Aoki 0-1

Yovani Gallardo is 11-10 this season over 30 games with 174.2 innings and 4.23 ERA. In the month of September he has pitched 27.0 innings with a 3.33 ERA. In one start against the Mets this year, he allowed 4 ER over 6 innings of work. The Mets have the following numbers against Gallardo:

Wright 3-19, HR
Murphy 5-12, 2 2B
Duda 3-7, 2 HR
Tejada 2-6

Lets Go Mets!

The Mets come back to Citi Field and bring the literally fighting Brewers back with them. Daisuke Matsuzaka finished off the Reds yesterday with a great start yesterday and won essentially without the offense involved. Today Dillon Gee gets the nod. On the see Gee is 12-10 over 31 starts and 193.0 innings with a 3.54 ERA. In the month of September, he has pitched two excellent games totaling 14.1 innings with 1 ER and two not so excellent games allowing 8 ER over 12 innings. In his career he has pitched 11.1 innings allowing 11 runs, 9 earned. The Brewers have the following numbers against Gee:

Lucroy 2-6, 2B
Ramirez  1-5
Aoki 1-3

The Mets bats get to face off against Johnny Hellweg who is 1-4 over 7 games and 6 starts in his rookie season. So far he has pitched 26.2 innings allowing 29 runs, 22 that have been earned (not the greatest of starts to a career). He’s been much better in his three starts in September then back in July. Now he has an ERA a bit about 5 instead of 7. Back in July he faced the Mets allowing 7 ER in 3.2 innings. The Mets have the following numbers against him:

Lagares 0-3
Murphy 0-3
Wright 1-2
Young 1-3

Lets Go Mets!