213 Miles From Shea

As mentioned in an earlier post, the Minnesota Twins will be wearing four sleeve patches this season. Normally they have three patches, but the All-Star game requires another patch. Right now, they wear two patches at a time, one being the All-Star game and the other being the base patch for the jerseys.

The earlier post did a poor job of showing the patches, so the purpose here is just to offer a closer view of patches:

All Star Game Patch, Road Patch (Both Road Jerseys)

Home Patch, Home Alternate Retro Patch

(All images from the Minnesota Twins Shop)

With the Mets not trading Davis or Duda, the Mets will have an interesting situation at Spring Training. The Mets have the following players in the outfield and at first base, creating a bit of a log jam on the bench:

First Base:

• Ike Davis
• Lucas Duda
• Josh Satin
• Wilmer Flores

Outfield:

• Curtis Granderson
• Chris Young
• Juan Lagares
• Eric Young Jr.
• Lucas Duda
• Matt den dekker
• Captain Kirk

Flores is only listed at first because of his bat and no natural position anywhere else. He has an outside, outside, like Major League “just a bit outside” chance at first. Josh Satin lines up as the most logical back up for first base because of his splits and how he hits where Duda and Davis can’t.

Granderson and Lagares are locks in the outfield.

Chris Young is a much better defender than Lucas Duda, which is why he should start much more often than Duda in outfield. Duda and Young though match on the platoon side. Duda has a .356 OBP against right handers vs .302 against lefties. His OPS also goes from .812 to .643 from RHP to LHP. Chris Young goes from .295 OBP to .363 from RHP to LHP. His OPS goes from .710 vs RHP to .929.

From the data, Chris Young should pretty much always play when the Mets play against a Left Handed Pitcher. Between Chris Young’s defense, offense, and track record, he should also have some playing against RHP’s as well, as long as Duda isn’t in a hot streak. This is frustrating because Duda has potential, but is being placed out here due to defense and a similar player in Ike.

Ike on the other hand will probably split time with Satin, from a statistics sense it is logical. Ike Davis has an OPS of .827 vs RHP and .602 vs LHP. In limited major league experience, Satin has .661 vs RHP and an .862 OPS vs LHP. However if Ike struggles, then Duda should also see time at first. If Satin struggles, then one of Davis or Duda will see time at first vs LHP.

What makes this frustrating is by having both Davis and Duda, it makes the Mets have the possibility for four part time players (Chris Young, Ike Davis, Lucas Duda, and Josh Satin). By having so many player combinations, the Mets will need to have superior communication in the field for proper defense.

It also begs for a situation where one of Davis or Duda could still be traded, thus quieting this heavy rotation between outfield, first base and bench.

Signing Drew through the 2015 season might make sense for the long term development of the Mets.

Right now the Mets have a protected first round pick. They already lost their second round pick signing Curtis Granderson and would lose a third round pick if they sign Drew.

If you take a look at next year’s free agent class, the notable shortstop choices:

• JJ Hardy
• Jed Lowrie
• Hanley Ramirez

Each of the above players could be either an extension candidate, require a draft pick and a long term deal. If the Mets pass on Drew and go with Tejada this season, and that doesn’t work out, they will either need to trade for a short stop next season, or sign one of these players.

The players lead a weak free agency class in terms of bats, so prices will run high. If the Mets finish in the top 20 in the league, which is easily possible, and hopeful, their draft pick won’t be protected next season. Which would increase the price.

On the flip side, if the Mets sign Drew to a year deal, they’ll be free of the contract in 2016. That will be around the same time Amed Rosario is ready to come to the majors. It will also be around the same time, although maybe a year early, that Gavin Cecchini is also ready to be called up.

In other words, signing Drew to a 2-year deal, makes sense for the current farm system the Mets have. If Tejada, Rosario and Cecchini don’t look ready by 2016 then the Mets could either extend Drew or sign another short stop at that time.

The downside to Drew in the short term is he eats up contract space financially. The upside to a short term deal is he could be turned over when prospects are ready and the Mets won’t have to give away draft picks next year, which could be pricy in the long term.

Is Stephen Drew different enough from Ruben Tejada to warrant a contract?

The debate around signing Drew centers on that pivotal question. Fangraphs has Steamer and Oliver projections for both Drew and Tejada posted already. Let’s take some time to pour over the data:

Stephen Drew:
Steamer: 530 AB, 13 HR, 68 R, 6 SB, .232 BA, .314 OBP, .378 SLG, 2.0 WAROliver: 534 AB, 16 HR, 66 R, 5 SB, .230 BA, .308 OBP, .390 SLG, 1.9 WAR

Ruben Tejada:
Steamer: 469 AB, 3 HR, 53 R, 6 SB, .260 BA, .317 OBP, .339 SLG, 1.6 WAR
Oliver: 547 AB, 2 HR, 54 R, 6 SB, .239 BA, .289 OBP, .305 SLG, 0.4 WAR

For Drew, the two models are in a lot of agreement. Oliver suggests slightly more power while Steamer suggests he’ll get on base more, and a slightly higher WAR.

For Tejada, there is a good bit of variance in the data. Steamer has Tejada is an almost platoon situation or missing a large swath of playing time but has him performing higher at batting average and on base thus a much higher WAR. The WAR suggested by Steamer is close to that of Drew. Oliver disagrees, suggesting a rough season for Tejada. Oliver and Steamer did the same for Davis, with Steamer suggesting a higher WAR for Davis playing less time during the season than in the Oliver projection. (Link for those who want to see the data).

In either case, Drew projects to be a better player than Tejada even though Drew’s numbers are not that great. Knowing that, the Mets need to be careful to overpay too much to land Drew. It is a calming thought that the models for Drew are pretty similar. His career trends seem to pan out to similar results despite the different calculations. I was already in camp Drew before looking at the numbers, but now I’m really in camp Drew.

The Mets have been linked to just about every team this off season that could be in the market for a First Basemen.

At the start of the off season, it looked like the Mets might try to bundle Davis or Duda with either a young starter or another player (Murphy) to get a big name bat for the outfield or short stop. After the Mets lost out on Peralta, it looked liked the trade route would be for a short stop and free agency for the outfield. The Mets were able to fill the outfield by two free agency signings (Granderson, Young) and their other need of starter by free agency (Colon). The last big piece the Mets are looking for is a short stop, possibly in Stephen Drew. However, since Drew is not a top ten short stop, they don’t want to commit a number of years for Drew or a large contract, especially if they are still carrying Davis.

The Orioles are on the inaction side of the off season boat. The deal with Balfour fell through and they traded away Jim Johnson. Their primary needs are a starter and a closer, with either an outfield or first base bat as the next need. The starter market is still alive, but outside of Arroyo, the market will require the Orioles to give up a draft pick, something they are reluctant to do. If it comes down to it, my gut says the Orioles will give up a draft pick for a starter, and not a position player. This takes the Orioles, at least temporarily, out of the running for Cruz and Morales.

Duda, Davis and Murphy on the Mets make sense for the Orioles.

JJ Hardy, Rodriguez, and Britton make sense for the Mets.

The problem is coming down to how the teams value their players.

The Mets have a high regard for Murphy, as they should. It is hard to find a consistent hitting second basemen, which is why the Mets asking price for Murphy is incredibly high. The Orioles have high regards for Hardy, as it is hard to find a power hitting short stop. With the Granderson signing, the Mets trading for Hardy no longer makes too much sense. He would cost too much in a trade and doesn’t help the Mets leadoff search.

So for the Mets it comes down to Rodriguez and Britton. The Orioles are high on Rodriguez, so are the Mets. This where the deal breaks down. (The rest is now speculation). The Orioles probably want either Davis/Duda + prospect or just Murphy. The Mets are looking to just move Davis.

I know I’m cycling the same Hot Stove show from SNY this week, but I agree that Britton makes sense here. Britton is coming off of a down year like Davis. When it comes to prospects and players living up to their original ceilings, a Britton / Davis trade in the long run makes sense. The Orioles have had success with another player like Davis, Chris Davis and turned him into all-star. The Mets are about enter a young arm evolution, and could use Britton.

Here’s hoping something happens.