213 Miles From Shea

As we head down the pipe to Pitchers and Catchers, Spring Training, Spring Training Games and the 2015 season, computers are rolling out 2015 projections on how every player will perform. Before getting a 2015 preview, at 213 Miles From Shea we wanted to see how the computers handled 2014.

Yesterday we took a look at the captain, today let’s look at 2014’s only Mets All Star, Daniel Murphy.

2014 Projections:
ESPN: 603 AB, 78 R, 9 HR, 64 RBI, 15 SB, .289 BA, .324 OBP, .410 SLG
MLB: 610 AB, 84 R, 11 HR, 73 RBI, 14 SB, .287 BA, .333 OBP, .410 SLG
Steamer: 576 PA, 65 R, 9 HR, 56 RBI, 11 SB, .280 BA, .323 OBP, .408 SLG
Oliver: 600 PA, 71 R, 11 HR, 64 RBI, 17 SB, .280 BA, .319 OBP, .405 SLG
PECOTA: 611 PA, 567 AB, 72 R, 56 RBI, 11 HR, 13 SB, .274 BA, .316 OBP, .400 SLG

Average: 595.7 PA, 593.3 AB, 74 R,10.2 HR, 62.6 RBI, 13.6 SB, .282 BA, .323 OBP, .407 SLG

2014 Actual:
642 PA, 596 AB, 79 R, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 13 SB, .289 BA, .332 OBP, .403 SLG

The average of the 2014 projection programs come out pretty close to his actual season. He had a few more AB’s, 1.2 less homers, about 5 less RBI’s, within one SB, a BA 7 points higher, an OBP 9 points higher and a SLG 4 points lower. Where the computers had problems with Wright, I would say they handled Murphy quite well. Murphy had a season that was easier to predict thanks to consistent play time.

As we head down the pipe to Pitchers and Catchers, Spring Training, Spring Training Games and the 2015 season, computers are rolling out 2015 projections on how every player will perform. Before getting a 2015 preview, at 213 Miles From Shea we wanted to see how the computers handled 2014.

First up is the captain, who suffered an injury plagued season, which hurt his power numbers tremendously, let’s see how the computer programs did.

2014 Projections:
ESPN: 554 AB, 88 R, 22 HR, 85 RBI, 18 SB, .303 BA, .388 OBP, .502 SLG
MLB: 550 AB, 87 R, 23 HR, 89 RBI, 17 SB, .302 BA, .379 OBP, .498 SLGOliver: 600 PA, 84 R, 21 HR, 79 RBI, 16 SB, .294 BA, .378 OBP, .484 SLG
Steamer: 612 PA, 78 R, 19 HR, 77 RBI, 14 SB, .290 BA, .376 OBP, .476 SLG
PECOTA: 606 PA, 531 AB, 77 R, 19 HR, 75 RBI, 17 SB, .272 BA, .356 OBP, .443 SLG
Average Stats: 606 PA, 545 AB, 82.8 R, 20.8 HR, 80.8 RBI, 16.4 SB, .292 BA, .375 OBP, .481 SLG

2014 Actual Stats:
586 PA, 535 AB, 54 R, 8 HR, 63 RBI, 8 SB, .269 BA, .324 OBP, .374 SLG

So the computers were way off with David Wright in 2014, but David Wright had a slide last year that was fairly difficult to predict. His power numbers were half of predicted, even though AB’s were only off by 10, OBP was way down and speed decreased by about half as well. In this situation, I don’t think it is fair to pan the computers because of Wright’s injury. I am curious though as to how the computers will respond to this slide with the 2015 numbers.

Wilmer Flores presents a common problem the Mets have had over the last couple of seasons. Flores is slightly better than average, exactly average or maybe a bit below average, which is why it is difficult to replace him. There are no players on the Free Agent market that are significantly better than Flores is or could be next season, so spending the money there doesn’t make sense, plus there is always the chance that Flores breaks out. The only upgrade options exist in trade.

In his last 27 games of the season, he hit .282, with a .318 OBP and a .485 SLG while scattering 12 extrabase hits over 29 total hits, including 4 homers. If he had 500 AB’s in the season, it would be around 19-20 homers. Obviously this would be excellent, and also crazy to think he could do this all season.

The real reason I’m tepid on Flores is actually because of Ruben Tejada. I know this is completely illogical but it’s true. Ruben had huge shoes to fill 2012 from Jose Reyes. In his first full season he was able to keep up the .280+ BA that he had from being a part-time player in 2011. While his OBP dropped about 30 points, it was still at .333 and he was able to increase his slugging. At the time he was only 22 and it looked like the Mets were going to be alright without Reyes. No one expected Tejada to be an All-Star but with the 2011/2012 season he was projecting to be an above average hitter at shortstop.

And then 2013 happened. In an injury shortened season, his average and his OBP dropped 80 points, and his slugging dropped 90 points. He was a shade of what he was before. Going into 2014, the hope was that 2013 was a fluke and he would return to his 2011/2012 form. He did slightly better in 2014 hitting .237 BA, somehow posting the second career high in OBP at .342 but his second lowest slugging at .310. Over the last four years he hasn’t been consistent.

This has nothing directly to do with Flores but back in 2013 I was convinced that Tejada would have a breakout season. I understand that Flores has a higher ceiling than Tejada but I’m afraid if I anticipate a breakout season from Flores, that I’m thinking more with my emotions than my brain. I want Flores to do well. I really do, but with everything else working in the Mets direction this year, I rather overpay for someone at shortstop that I don’t need to roll a dice on to see if he has a good season.

Happy New Year!

The calendar has flipped over to 2015 and there are only 48 until Pitchers and Catchers report (or 47 depending on when you read this, or like 30-something because so many players show up to camp early).

The Mets signed Cuddyer to a two-year deal and a Mayberry to a one year deal this off-season. In addition they acquired Sean Gilmartin in the Rule 5, they lost Logan Verett in the Rule 5, and traded Gonzalez German to the Yankees for cash.

They have also made series of normal minor league moves including resigning Scott Rice and signing Brandon Allen, Alex Castellanos, Johnny Monell and Kyle Regnault.

The team has also had normal attrition including Daisuke Matsuzaka, Bobby Abreu, Juan Centeno, and Andrew Brown.

Looking at the Mets in a vacuum would not help paint a picture of if the Mets are actually better off right now than they were at the end of October. The Braves have started to sell their pieces and make a farm system, the Phillies have started to do the same. The Marlins have made some positive news and the Nationals may have one of the best 25-man rosters in league that is exasperated when compared to the rest of the NL East.

Because of the vacuum in the NL East, signing Cuddyer to an everyday role and Mayberry to a bench role mark improvements for the Mets. Many sources have also come out to complement the talent in the Mets system. So things do look good for the Mets.

There are moves the Mets could still make, and for the Mets it all points to shortstop. Wilmer Flores is average, and that seems to be the problem for the Mets. All of the “cheap” options on the market and even some of the riskier ones (Kang) don’t project to measurably better than Flores. I’m all for the Mets spending money like a big market, but only in areas where it make sense.

There are three shortstops on the market that I would look into if I were the Mets, three of them more seriously, and they are all costly options:

• Tulo: Will cost a lot money, huge injury risk and a lot of prospects. But if you don’t trade from depth, when would you trade?
• Zobrist: Probably not the best defensively, but gives the Mets a lot of options. Will cost the Mets a lot of prospects and then needs to be extended (or dumped midway through), presents a risk because of that
• Mocando: Huge, Huge prospect from Cuba. On top of the normal risks (like prospects not panning out), he will cost the Mets also a large amount of money and handicap our ability to work on the international market and won’t be ready immediately.

I’m starting to doubt any of the above will happen, but it will make the team so much better if one of them does. We trade from depth to get something we need, we take a risk but a team in New York should be able to absorb risk.

Without any shortstop move, I still feel the Mets will be competitive. However the first SS on the list will make the Mets and immediate contender, the second one most likely to extremely likes makes the Mets competitive and the last one might not impact at all in 2015 but could make the Mets a threat for a long time come (or not at all, because of prospects).

Let’s see see what Sandy does in January! Let’s Go Mets!

Teams deciding to rebuild, buy or stay pat sometimes have to measure themselves against what other teams in the division are doing. For example, the Reds traded Latos after the Cubs signed Lester. The NL West has been an interesting place this off-season. The Dodgers shed a lot of weight, some of it within the division, but were still able to retool and become stronger. The Padres have practically a new team.

The Diamondbacks have been in a bit of selling mode by trading Didi, Miley and Montero, but have retooled with prospects and signing Tomas.

So from the Rockies view, the Dodgers and Padres have improved, the Diamondbacks are a bit of a mystery as their offense has improved but their rotation/defense has taken a hit. And then there are the Giants. The Giants are coming off of a World Series but lost Sandoval and weren’t able to sign Lester. If the Giants can sign James Shield and possibly make another move, then they can come out of the 0ff-season looking a bit stronger than current perceptions.

What do the Rockies get for staying put? They would need fantastic, injury free seasons from both Tulo and CarGo to have a chance at winning the division. The Dodgers are sleeker, the Padres are tougher and the Giants, even if they don’t sign one more elite player, are not going to regress too much. Last year, the NL West had the Rockies with 96 losses and the Diamondbacks with 98 Losses.

The Rockies are not in a position to win this year. However, that doesn’t mean they should just give up their franchise players. But if they do trade their two franchise players, they could see a solid haul in return. If the cost is too high, other teams won’t bite. If the cost is too low, then the Rockies risk hurting themselves.

Should the Rockies trade Tulo to the Mets? The Rockies place a high value on Tulo because when healthy he is one of the best players in the league and financially speaking he is a major draw to the ballpark and the organization loves him. Should the Mets make a massive package of prospects? Teams value their prospects way more usually than prospects are actually worth. Taking the market rate out of it (I think the money is actually fair for Tulo, especially compared to recent contracts other players have just received), trading the organization away for Tulo is a massive risk. If he stays oft injured, and our prospects develop into stars, then the Mets made a massive mistake. If he stays healthy then it doesn’t matter what happens to our prospects.

I’ve made it clear over the last several weeks that I’m for the Mets trading for Tulo. My point here is that it is more complicated than the Rockies getting the right package for Tulo and the Mets being able to take the hit of the package. What the other NL West teams and what the other NL East teams should factor in for making a trade. Right now the NL West points that it would be prudent for the Rockies to sell (but they would have to commit to that, and I’m not sure they would) and the NL East points to the Mets buying.

The Padres are attempting to accomplish the difficult feat of turning around their major league performance in one off-season.

After striking out on the free agency market for Panda and Tomas, the Padres have decided to trade the farm system. In doing so they’ve acquired a crop of strong players for next season:

• Justin Upton
• Derick Norris
• Matt Kemp
• Will Myers
• Will Middlebrooks

They did this by trading a ton of players out. They traded away 15 players, received an additional 4 (but one of them was traded). They sold high on some of their young players, then brought in players to replace them (like Norris) and added pieces like Morrow on top of it.

Will this work? Premiums on prospects have gone up each season for the better part of the last decade as teams overvalue players that haven’t been fully tested in the majors. This has been compounded with players who have gone from the Minor leagues and became star sensations in the same year (Trout, Andrus, Harvey, S Castro to name a few). Some received huge extensions to buy players out of their arbitration years and while some players are playing to those contracts, others aren’t (Andrus).

While this turn around has certainly taken the Padres organization more than one year to execute since they had to build a farm-system to support this, they will now become a case study in if selling the farm system means long term success. If we continue down the road of baseball adages, championships are invaluable to franchises. Meaning, winning it all one year could mean more to a franchise than being competitive or marginally competitive for years down the road.

Making this more of a case study is to juxtapose the Padres off-season with the Mets. Barring a huge move for a shortstop from Colorado that I still hope happens, the Mets are looking at holding on to all of their prospects this season. This season in particular, the Mets are coming into the season with a strong farm system that looks to have several players in crowded positions matriculate at the same time (Syndergaard, Montero, possibly Matz). The Mets already have 6 starting pitchers on the team, if Gee isn’t traded. The Mets situation is like a fantasy football team that has two great quarterbacks. Trading one cuts your depth, but he isn’t doing anything sitting on your bench every week. Trading him for a piece that is probably worth less then quarterback looks bad on paper, but it could be the marginal piece that improves your team every week.

In other words, or more negative words, the Padres could be gutting themselves by gutting their farm system. The Mets could be gutting themselves by not moving a surplus to get missing pieces. In the longer term, the Padres and Mets now foil as to what happens when a team goes for a win now mode by trading the farm and what happens when a team walks away from that situation by not doing that.

Around the Minaya-Era, Mets fans experienced bleak farm system reviews. Our market hyped up our prospects, some deserved, some not, and mixed with some bad luck (Reese Havens never staying healthy), the Mets never really had rave reviews on the farm system. The last four years, around when Beltran was traded for Wheeler, this started to change and now the Mets have a farm system that lost 5 players in the Rule V Draft.

Yesterday Minor League Ball released their top 20 Mets Prospects list and later today Baseball America will be releasing theirs. I cannot predict what Baseball America will say, but Minor League Ball was all over the Mets system. In short, the Mets have a strong amount of players that project to not only be major leaguers but also project to be possible starters, or major league mainstays. A huge amount of players also got a ranking of “C+” which at the the lower levels / ages that they are, they are on track to be an A/B type prospect (Cecchini, D Smith, Whalen and Becerra are in this category while Mazzoni, Mazilli are your more typical C+ prospects). Anyway here are the top 10, please visit the link for their grades and write-ups, which are worth it:

1. Noah Syndergaard
2. Steven Matz
3. Dilson Herrera
4. Brandon Nimmo
5. Kevin Plawecki
6. Rafael Montero
7. Michael Conforto
8. Marcos Molina
9. Ahmed Rosario
10. Jhoan Urena

Becerra, ranked at 17 at age 20 was said to have one of the highest ceiling bats in the system. His name should sound familiar as he was also part of the R.A. Dickey trade.

Alex Rios signed a one year, 11 million dollar contract with the Royals yesterday.

Alex Rios. Who had a nice .280 BA, but an average/below average (especially for the price) OBP at .311. Alex Rios who last year hit 4 homers. Alex Rios who had a war of 0.6 in 2014 over 500+ AB’s but had a 1.1 WAR in 2013. Alex Rios is a example of the price inflation on offensive WAR.

Compare that to Cuddyer, who does play in Colorado and did play in only 49 games last year. In those 49, he hit .331, had an OBP of .376 and had 10 homers. The previous year he hit .332 with an OBP of .389 and 20 homers over 489 AB’s. He had a WAR of 1.2 last year and 1.8 the year before. He doubled Rios’s WAR in about 40% of the amount of AB’s that Rios had. Cuddyer signed a two year deal for 21 million.

Earlier in the off-season, I said, like many people, that I would judge the Cuddyer signing based on what other moves the Mets have made. Without bringing in another shortstop, the Cuddyer signing isn’t enough (probably) for next year. However, by shocking everyone and moving on Cuddyer quickly, Sandy saved the Mets a lot of money, or at least money as it compares to WAR starts. Rios is a candidate for a bounce back year but as things stand today, I much rather have Cuddyer for two years then Rios for one year, with a similar average salary per year.

Even though I would love the Mets to spend more money like the big market team that they are, moves like this remind me why I’m a blogger and Alderson is a general manager.

Jung-ho (Jeong-ho) Kang was posted today, which was expected. The posting period will end on Firday at 5 PM, so we can probably expect a limited amount of significant news until then as teams will deny interest until that point (as they should, it’s a blind, closed bid).

Throughout the day though, I came across some interesting Kang numbers that perpetuate the whole, “who knows if he’s going to be good in the MLB” feeling:

• He went 2-9, HR in the WBC
• In the 2014 Asian games, he was 5-11 with 2 HR
• His KBL leading OPS of 1.198 was followed by Eric Thames who had an OPS of 1.110. This is the same Thames that bounced around the majors for a few years. It is dangerous to extrapolate Kang’s numbers from this point, but if you really wanted to you could do some transitive property analysis of the Majors to Thames to Kang to the Majors. This probably means nothing though.
• He had a breakout year this year, but he’s been putting up power numbers consistently in the KBL for a while. It’s also the KBL.
• He has won 4 Gold Gloves.