213 Miles From Shea

As we head down the pipe to Pitchers and Catchers, Spring Training, Spring Training Games and the 2015 season, computers are rolling out 2015 projections on how every player will perform. Before getting a 2015 preview, at 213 Miles From Shea we wanted to see how the computers handled 2014.

Niese was able to toss 30 games last year in a solid season. Let’s see if the computers thought he was going to be solid before 2014 season:

2014 Projections:

ESPN: 30 G, 30 GS, 180.0 IP, 55 BB, 142 K, 11 W, 3.80 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
MLB: 185.0 IP, 11-10, 3.99 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
Steamer: 29 G, 29 GS, 173.0 IP, 11-11, 3.89 ERA
Oliver: 28 G, 28 GS, 167.0 IP, 11-8 3.61 ERA
PECOTA: 29 G, 29 GS, 165.3 IP, 8.6-13.7, 46 BB, 140 K, 3.95 ERA, 1.26 WHIP

Average: 29 G, 29 GS, 174.0 IP, 10.5-10.6, 50.5 BB, 141 K, 3.85 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

2014 Actual:
30 G, 30 GS, 187.2 IP, 9-11, 45 BB, 138 K, 3.40 ERA, 1.268 WHIP

Niese did well against his projections. He pitched about two starts worth more innings in only one more projected starts, his walks were down (although is strikeouts were slightly down) and his ERA was way lower. The computers projections saw Niese regressing from 2013 numbers, instead he ended up returning close to his 2012 season, his best. Hopefully he will be able to keep this up in 2015!

Ken Rosenthal posted a story earlier that the Mets, Nationals and Rays could have been involved in a three player trade that would have sent SS Ian Desmond to the Mets, Zobrist to the Nationals and Mets prospects to the Rays. The Rays would have received Noah Syndergaard and an unknown other prospect in the Mets system.

Desmond would have been a tremendous upgrade at shortstop, but Desmond is also a free agent next year. A top tier pitching prospect, plus an additional top prospect would have been a fairly steep price for Desmond. At best the Mets would get to sign Desmond to an expensive contract and at worst they would have received a prospect.

I want the Mets to upgrade at shortstop, although Wally Backman has calmed me slightly about Flores starting. But the price in that trade, plus possibly losing Desmond at the end of the season is too steep. I rather give up four top tier prospects and pay a ton of money for Tulo knowing that he would be under contract for a while.

For the purposes of this article, lets assume that Flores is the everyday shortstop (therefore answers of “Flores should bat no-where!” in response to this article would not add to the conversation). Before going to the Queens Baseball Convention yesterday, my reaction to this question was, “8th! Why are we even talking about this?”.

Wally Backman though put a bug in my head about where he he hits. He describes Flores as a free swinger, and because of that, he will drive in runs, but needs to be in a place where he can drive in runs and get those pitches to hit. He doesn’t feel that 8th works for Flores because there is no protection behind him to get pitches to hit.

My general feeling about lineups is your best players should hit closer to the top just to get them more AB’s in the game. Unless you have an obvious table-setter / clean-up etc person, the lineup should be constructed by talent. I also am not a fan of having the pitcher batting anywhere but 9th.

That being said, looking at the Mets lineup, the one solution I could see getting Flores protection in the lineup (in lieu of batting with people on) would actually be 9th. Seriously.

First, who else would bat 8th? The only two players I could think of would be Lagares or d’Arnaud. Murphy should bat 2nd (although I’m not always convinced TC knows this), a healthy Wright is 3rd, Duda has earned 4th, Granderson/Cuddyer would control 5th and 6th (they can be flipped). At that point you’re left with Lagares, d’Arnaud and Flores. Lagares makes way more sense first, so he goes there. So then it comes down to d’Arnaud and Flores, and I can’t see d’Arnaud really hitting 8th. If Flores and the pitcher are flipped then Flores gets protection from Lagares. But in this situation, d’Arnaud does not get protection, which isn’t ideal.

The other option would be to really shakeup the lineup:

1. Granderson
2. Murphy
3. Wright
4. Duda
5. Cuddyer
6. d’Arnaud
7. Flores
8. Lagares

The above might be the only way to Flores more protection, at the cost of Lagares. It also hinges on Granderson bouncing back this year. Granderson’s OBP was 100 points higher than his BA last year. Originally when I wrote this, I had d’Arnaud and Flores flipped, but that didn’t vibe with me either.

As we head down the pipe to Pitchers and Catchers, Spring Training, Spring Training Games and the 2015 season, computers are rolling out 2015 projections on how every player will perform. Before getting a 2015 preview, at 213 Miles From Shea we wanted to see how the computers handled 2014.

I’m not sure how much we’ll get out of reviewing Jenrry Mejia’s projections vs actual numbers because at the start of the season, it looked like Mejia was going to be a starter and he was for the first part of the season before be switched into the bullpen. Anyway here are his numbers:

2014 Projections:

ESPN: 23 G, 20 GS, 114.0 IP, 39 BB, 71 K, 7 W, 3.79 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
MLB: 105.0 IP, 5-5, 37 BB, 90 K, 3.86 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
Steamer: 35 G, 5 GS, 4-3, 59.0 IP, 3.57 ERA
Oliver: 19 G, 13 GS, 4-4, 72.0 IP, 4.11 ERA
PECOTA: 23 G, 23 GS, 122.0 IP, 6-11.3, 46 BB, 90 K, 4.45 ERA, 1.38 WHIP

Average: 17 G, 15 GS, 94.4 IP, 5.2-5.8, 40.6 BB, 83.6 K, 3.96 ERA, 1.35 WHIP

2014 Actual:
63 G, 7 GS, 93.2 IP, 6-6, 41 BB, 98 K, 3.65 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 28 SV

Surprisingly, the numbers are comparable! Outside of the start to relief splits, he had similar innings pitched, records, and walks. He crushed the amount of strikeouts and and ERA but his WHIP was considerably higher than projections. Ultimately, this was a great year for Mejia that would have been impossible for a computer to predict as his numbers last winter were calculated as a starter.

As we head down the pipe to Pitchers and Catchers, Spring Training, Spring Training Games and the 2015 season, computers are rolling out 2015 projections on how every player will perform. Before getting a 2015 preview, at 213 Miles From Shea we wanted to see how the computers handled 2014.

Heading into 2015, Ruben Tejada looks to be the back up Shortstop behind Wilmer Flores. Ruben had back to back good seasons in 2011 and 2012, with the latter being a near breakout season. He slid in 2013. Below is what the computers projected would happen in 2014 followed by his actual results:

2014 Projections:

ESPN: 437 AB, 48 R, 1 HR, 30 RBI, 4 SB, .259 BA, .313 OBP, .323 SLG
MLB: 477 AB, 60 R, 3 HR, 44 RBI, 4 SB, .273 BA, .328 OBP, .354 SLG
Steamer: 524 PA, 50 R, 3 HR, 38 RBI, 6 SB, .260 BA, .317 OBP, .339 SLG
Oliver: 600 PA, 54 R, 2 HR, 44 RBI, 6 SB, .239 BA, .291 OBP, .305 SLG
PECOTA: 525 PA, 473 BA, 46 R, 3 HR, 41 RBI, 4 SB, .247 BA, .301 OBP, .320 SLG

Average: 549 PA, 463 AB, 51.6 R, 2.4 HR, 39.4 RBI, 4.8 SB, .256 BA, .310 OBP, .328 SLG

2014 Actual:
419 PA, 355 AB, 30 R, 5 HR, 34 RBI, 1 SB, .237 BA, .342 OBP, .310 SLG

Ruben’s numbers are interesting on a number of levels. His homers were way up over his projections in over 100 less AB’s, yet his slugging percentage 18 points lower in reality. His batting average was way down from projections, but his OBP was way above. None of this points towards Tejada being a viable candidate currently for starting shortstop but it does point to models not being able to figure him out in 2014.

As we head down the pipe to Pitchers and Catchers, Spring Training, Spring Training Games and the 2015 season, computers are rolling out 2015 projections on how every player will perform. Before getting a 2015 preview, at 213 Miles From Shea we wanted to see how the computers handled 2014.

In what feels like a century ago, Terry Collins was debating an Outfield lineup that had Lagares in a rotation, with concerns for his bat. Many people, myself included, feel that Juan Lagares needed to be in the lineup every day, so we poured over projections. Let’s see how the projections did and how they compared to his actual states:

2014 Projections:

ESPN: 258 AB, 24 R, 3 HR, 20 RBI, 6 SB, .240 BA, .281 OBP, .345 SLG
MLB: 370 AB, 40 R, 4 HR, 28 RBI, 8 SB, .249 BA, .303 OBP, .351 SLG
Steamer: 428 PA, 39 R, 6 HR, 39 RBI, 9 SB, .254 BA, .295 OBP, .365 SLG
Oliver: 600 PA, 64 R, 6 HR, 53 RBI, 13 SB, .259 BA, .297 OBP, .355 SLG
PECOTA: 440 PA, 411 AB, 46 R, 5 HR, 35 RBI, 9 SB, .249 BA, .285 OBP, .354 SLG

Average: 489 PA, 346 AB, 42.6 R, 4.8 HR, 35 RBI, 9 SB, .250 BA, .292 OBP, .354 SLG

2014 Actual:
452 PA, 416 AB, 46 R, 4 HR, 47 RBI, 13 SB, .281 BA, .321 OBP, .382 SLG

Lagares stepped up last year and showed that his bat, although lacking homer power, had some pop, could drag out hits and complement his glove. His averages were all considerably better than projections. I’m curious to see how the 2015 projections feel he will do.

Last year I wrote about how the Red Bulls do things for season ticket holders that the Mets should emulate, like adding value onto our cards (Red Bull season tickets are on credit card) or providing actual perks like games added to our schedules. This came out of multiple days last year where fans walking up to Citi Field day of ended up paying considerably less for the same or better seats then season ticket holders.

If you follow the MLS, then you know this has not been a good week for the Metrostars (once again, if you don’t follow the MLS, this is the old name for the Red Bulls franchise) supporters. Loved player turned maybe one of the better coaches in team history, Mike Petke, who brought home the only trophy in team history, who brought the team to the conference finals last year was sacked this week and there really isn’t a good explanation why.

Fans have gone almost nuclear (I have gone almost nuclear over this).

Last night I received an email from the Red Bulls saying they are going to have a Town Hall meeting with the GM and some of the new coaching staff next Friday for 300 season ticket holders to address staffing and direction of the team concerns. I know that this will end up just being a propaganda event however, it’s nice that they will possibly engage us directly on these concerns. Before I jump out and say, “Hey! The Mets should have done that! Especially with Madoff scandal several years ago!”, have done this? Maybe they did and I missed it. If they haven’t, it’s a great idea.

As we head down the pipe to Pitchers and Catchers, Spring Training, Spring Training Games and the 2015 season, computers are rolling out 2015 projections on how every player will perform. Before getting a 2015 preview, at 213 Miles From Shea we wanted to see how the computers handled 2014.

Yesterday we looked at Ike Davis’s preseason prediction and compared it to his actual season. Lucas Duda had the opposite season posting breakout numbers, especially once he got the starting job. So, how did the computers do for Duda? Let’s take a look:

2014 Projections:

ESPN: 346 AB, 45 R, 13 HR, 44 RBI, 1 SB, .249 BA, .357 OBP, .408 SLG
MLB: 400 AB, 50 R, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 3 SB, .245 BA, .345 OBP, .403 SLG
Steamer: 342 PA, 37 R, 11 HR, 39 RBI, 2 SB, .237 BA, .334 OBP, .404 SLG
Oliver: 600 PA, 65 R, 18 HR, 65 RBI, 3 SB, .217 BA, .327 OBP, .372 SLG
PECOTA: 331 PA, 287 AB, 38 R, 12 HR, 42 RBI, 1 SB, .239 BA, .333 OBP, .415 SLG

Average: 424 PA, 344 AB, 47 R, 13.8 HR, 49 RBI, 2 SB, .237 BA, .320 OBP, .404 SLG

2014 Actual:
596 PA, 514 AB, 74 R, 30 HR, 92 RBI, 3 SB, .253 BA, .349 OBP, .481 SLG

It is easy to dismiss the computer projections because they predicted Duda to be in a platoon the entire season, and that wasn’t the case at all, so of course Duda would put up Runs, Homers and RBIs above the projections. The computer models failed heavily on the averages. Duda hit way better for average, had a significant bump in OBP and his slugging jumped way up. Ultimately, Duda experienced a breakout that the average of the projections did not see. No projections were even close, except ESPN and MLB were close on BA and OBP.

All things being equal, in a list of top 30 players  in the league, each team should have between 8-9 players on the list and a player appearing every 30 spots or so. Below is a list of the players that made the updated top 250 list over at ESPN with their position number:

84. Matt Harvey
87. David Wright
111. Jacob deGrom
127. Daniel Murphy
137. Lucas Duda
169. Zack Wheeler
193. Curtis Granderson
221. Michael Cuddyer

The Mets are on the lower end of the 8-9 players on the list, but they got 8. They missed players in top 80 spots, but a lot of players are grouped together. Honestly though, on fantasy rankings, I haven’t seen Mets ranked like this since Jose Reyes / David Wright Team to Beat Days, so this is nice.

In addition to the above:

Travis d’Arnaud is the 15th best catcher
Lucas Duda is the 19th best first basemen
Daniel Murphy is the the 10th best second basemen
David Wright is the 9th best third basemen
Curtis Granderson is the 54th best outfielder
Michael Cuddyer is the 61st best outfielder
Juan Lagares is the 82nd best outfielder
Matt Harvey is the 21st best starting pitcher
Jacob deGrom is the 28th best starting pitcher
Zack Wheeler is the 43rd best starting pitcher
Jon Niese is the best 76th best starting pitcher
Jenrry Mejia is the 35th best reliever*
Jeurys Familia is the 39th best reliever
Bobby Parnell is the 45th best reliever

*Jenrry Mejia rankings are hurt because he is also listed as a starter, actually the 72nd starter.

As we head down the pipe to Pitchers and Catchers, Spring Training, Spring Training Games and the 2015 season, computers are rolling out 2015 projections on how every player will perform. Before getting a 2015 preview, at 213 Miles From Shea we wanted to see how the computers handled 2014.

Ike Davis is no longer on the Mets but I’m curious to see what the computers thought Davis would be able to do at the start of the season. As a primer in case you forgot for some odd reason, Davis and Duda were in a competition for a starting job, Davis struggled and was traded away. Duda on the other hand had a breakout season.

2014 Projections:

ESPN: 441 AB, 64 R, 20 HR, 71 RBI, 2 SB, .234 BA, .339 OBP, .422 SLG
MLB: 400 AB, 50 R, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 3 SB, .245 BA, .345 OBP, .403 SLG
Steamer: 409 PA, 47 R, 17 HR, 52 RBI, 2 SB, .238 BA, .340 OBP, .439 SLG
Oliver: 600 PA, 68 R, 22 HR, 72 RBI, 3 SB, .216 BA, .327 OBP, .398 SLGPECOTA: 472 PA, 410 AB, 57 R, 19 HR, 64 RBI, 2 SB, .236 BA, .330 OBP, .428 SLG

Average: 493.7 PA, 417 AB, 57.2 R, 18.6 HR, 62.8 RBI, 2.4 SB, .234 BA, .336 OBP, .418 SLG

2014 Actual:
427 PA, 360 AB, 43 R, 11 HR, 51 RBI, 0 SB, .233 BA, .344 OBP, .378 SLG

The only area where Davis and the computer matched was the batting average, and the computer underestimated his ability to get on base (slightly-and it it still isn’t great). However Davis was needed for power and the computer predicted he would slide, partially due to a slide in playing time. In reality Davis’s power numbers went into a sharp decline with a slugging considerably lower than the computer prediction. Tomorrow we’ll look at Lucas Duda’s 2014 vs what the computers thought!