213 Miles From Shea

The Brewers have two former Mets in their ranks: Juan Centeno and Carlos Gomez.

Juan Centeno, catcher, who joined the Brewers this off season being selected off waivers at the end of October. Juan didn’t really have a place on the team this year with d’Arnaud as the starter, Recker as the back up, Plawecki waiting in the hole, and other players looking to fill in the back up spot. Hopefully Juan finds a role with the Brewers.

Carlos Gomez is probably the best player right now in the majors who used to be a Met. The Twins acquired him as part of the deal for Johan Santana, and he would become the only redeeming part of the trade for the Twins, but they traded him the next year to the Brewers where he became a great player. Poor Twins.

This series of articles will take us across every organization in baseball and look for former Mets in the majors and minors to see how they are doing, leading up to a “Former Mets Team” to see how the current Mets stack up with pieces we have all over the place. I am still looking for Mets team members on the Pirates, Rangers, White Sox and Tigers. If you know any, please let me know!

Dillon Gee is going to be one of the more difficult pitchers for computers to project, mainly because when the numbers were first run, Gee was going to be a starter. If Gee stays with the Mets, barring something unforeseen, he’ll be in the pen. He could also be traded. Anyway, lets take a look at what the fly-ball pitcher was able to do last season:

2014 Stats: 7-8, 22 G, 137.1 IP, 94 K, 43 BB, 1.25 WHIP, 4.00 ERA

And his 2015 projections:

PECOTA (BP): 7-8, 22 G, 132.2 IP, 107 K, 39 BB, 1.22 WHIP, 3.90 ERA
MLB.com: 6-6, 110 IP, 77 K, 34 BB, 1.26 WHIP, 3.93 ERA
PECOTA (MLB.com): 7-7, 121 IP, 98 K, 36 BB, 1.21 WHIP, 3.79 ERA
ZiPS: 23 G, 142 IP, 107 K, 40 BB, 4.18 ERA
Steamer: 5-7, 17 G, 96 IP, 70 K, 26 BB, 4.35 ERA
ESPN: 6-5, 73 K, 1.22 WHIP, 3.86 ERA

Average: 6.2-6.6, 20.6 G, 120.1 IP, 88.6 K, 35 BB, 1.23 WHIP, 4.00 ERA

For the most part, the computers think given two-thirds of a season, Gee would improve on his stats when accounted for playing time. We’ll see what happens when he gets moved to the pen, and then fences are accounted for also.

The Cincinnati Reds have four former Mets in their system right now between Marlon Byrd, Josh Satin, Elvin Ramirez and Cam Maron.

Marlon Byrd was given a contract by the Mets a few years ago to resurrect his career. He put up huge numbers for the Mets and was traded with Buck to the Pirates, signed a big contract with the Phillies who later traded him to the Reds.

Josh Satin! Eyebrows! Josh made his debut with the Mets, had some big moments, but never was a critical player. He was granted free agency this year and signed with the Reds. Best of luck! Hope your caterpillars become butterflies in Cinncy!

Elvin Ramirez made his major league debut this season but he didn’t project in the Mets future pen back in 2012. He was signed by the Mets in 2004, selected in the Rule V draft in 2010 by the Nationals, but returned to the Mets. He was then traded to the Angels, signed with the Pirates and most recently signed with the Reds.

Finally Cam Maron was a catching prospect in the Mets organization that has both d’Arnaud and Plawecki. The Mets were not able to protect him in the Rule V draft this year and he was claimed by the Reds.

This series of articles will take us across every organization in baseball and look for former Mets in the majors and minors to see how they are doing, leading up to a “Former Mets Team” to see how the current Mets stack up with pieces we have all over the place. I am still looking for Mets team members on the Pirates, Rangers, White Sox and Tigers. If you any, please let me know!

Part of the Mets strength heading into camp is by May/June, the Mets should have three pitchers on the roster who could potentially close between Mejia, Familia and Parnell. Familia had his first full season last year and he clearly demonstrated that he knew what he was doing on the mound:

2014 Stats: 2-5, 5 SV, 76 G, 77.1 IP, 73 K, 32 BB, 1.18 WHIP, 2.21 ERA

By the end of the year, he was mostly a set-up man, but had some closing experience as well. His ERA was super-low, although his K/BB ratio was a bit higher than what you would like to see from a late bullpen pitcher (however his K/9 was close to what you want). Let’s take a look at his projections for next year:

PECOTA (BP): 3-3, 1 SV, 24 G, 58.2 IP, 55 K, 27 BB, 1.34 WHIP, 4.01 ERA
PECOTA (MLB.com): 3-3, 7 SV, 66 IP, 55 K, 28 BB, 1.35 WHIP, 4.05 ERA
MLB.com: 3-2, 0 SV, 72 IP, 68 K, 27 BB, 1.24 WHIP, 3.25 ERA
ZiPS: 65 G, 65.1 IP, 63 K, 28 BB, 3.17 ERA
Steamer: 3-3, 6 SV, 55 G, 55 IP, 56 K, 23 BB, 3.55 ERA
ESPN: 5-3, 0 SV, 71 K, 1.33 WHIP, 3.00 ERA

Average: 3.4-2.8, 2.8 SV, 48 IP, 63.1 IP, 61.3 K, 26.6 BB, 1.32 WHIP, 3.51 ERA

The computers are split on his ERA and K’s. They are all convinced on an ERA regression, which is pretty typical after a sub 2.50 ERA year, but some are showing way more regression, which is why he averages out to a 3.51 ERA. They all show an equally large regression on WHIP, but are pretty constant on the amount of walks he’ll allow, so I guess the computers think he’ll give up more hits?

The Chicago Cubs organization now features four former Mets between Taylor Teagarden, Gonzalez German German, Mike Baxter and Pedro Feliciano.

This season will be a homecoming of sorts if Taylor Teagarden makes the major league roster. Teagarden was drafted by the Cubs in 2002, went to college and then was drafted by the Rangers in 2005 (so I guess not really a homecoming situation if he makes the major league roster this year). In 2011 he was traded to the Orioles and signed as a free agent with the Mets last year  playing in 9 games hitting .143 over 28 ABs. This off-season he signed a deal with the Cubs.

Gonzalez German German has had quite the off-season. He was traded to the Yankees from the Mets, then traded to the Rangers, then selected off waivers by the Cubs and finally cleared waivers with the Cubs making them his final stop this year. German was signed by the Mets in 2007 and has pitched at least 30 innings in the last two seasons in the majors with moderate success. Best of luck Gonzalez!

Baxter is a legend in New York. You already know why, you don’t need me to spell it out for you. In 2005 he was drafted by the Padres, the Mets claimed him in 2011, then he was claimed by the Dodgers in 2014 and signed as a free agent with the Cubs this season. I’m hoping he can break camp with the Cubs and make it back to Queens for a visit this year.

Finally there’s Pedro Feliciano. Perpetual Pedro was a rock in the Mets bullpen for several seasons, but bullpen mismanagement led to arm trouble that he never deserved. He was drafted in 1995, by the Dodgers, was granted free agency in 2011 when he signed with the Reds. He was then traded to the Mets in 2002, and claimed by the Tigers. They released him and he signed back with the Mets. It was also with the Mets where he finally made his major league debut. In 2005 he was purchased by a Japanese team and a year later he signed back with the Mets. In 2011 he signed with the Yankees, 2013 back with the Mets, 2014 with the Cardinals and now with the Cubs. Keep on pushing!

This series of articles will take us across every organization in baseball and look for former Mets in the majors and minors to see how they are doing, leading up to a “Former Mets Team” to see how the current Mets stack up with pieces we have all over the place. I am still looking for Mets team members on the Pirates, Rangers, White Sox and Tigers. If you any, please let me know!

As we start Spring Training, it looks like Josh Edgin is going to have a busy season as the only LHP on the Mets roster in pen (I’m sure that will change though heading into the season). Edgin had limited time in the majors last year, but it was good:

2014 Stats: 1-0, 47 G, 27.1 IP, 28 K, 6 BB, 0.91 WHIP, 1.32 ERA

Baseball Prospectus puts it best that although Edgin looks like and is described as a LOOGY, he was successful against everyone last year, and that’s important to keep in mind. He’s part of the reason why I’m excited about the pen this year. Between Mejia, Familia, and Parnell at the back end, Black and Edgin as wild cards, Gee and second Lefty joining the bunch, it seems like a solid group of pitchers with a lot of upside. What I’m worried about right now is without another lefty, Edgin could be over used very quickly, and that tanks everything. Lets take a look at the 2015 Projections:

PECOTA (BP): 2-1, 40 G, 37.2 IP, 37 K, 14 BB, 1.22 WHIP, 3.53 ERA
ZiPS: 68 G, 47 IP, 46 K, 21 BB, 3.64 ERA
Steamer: 2-2, 45 G, 45 IP, 43 K, 17 BB, 3.70 ERA
ESPN: 2-1, 30 K, 1.13 WHIP, 3.30 ERA

Average: 2-1.3, 51 G, 43.2 IP, 39 K, 17.3 BB, 1.18 WHIP, 3.54 ERA

All of the projection programs predict a regression for Edgin, but his small-sample numbers in 2014 were unreal. Interestingly, PECOTA and Steamer don’t see Edgin as a LOOGY but as a traditional pitcher out of the pen, ZiPS on the other hand is on board for the “use Edgin way too much” wagon.

The reigning champs are home to three former Mets: Petit, Pagan and Arias.

Petit was signed by the Mets in 2001 and was a key piece in the 2005 trade that landed the Mets Carlos Delgado. He was then traded to the Diamondbacks for Jorge Julio. Later signed with the Mariners a couple of times, and now has been part of the Giants organization since 2012. Originally touted as a starter for the Mets future, he became a key player when he switched to the bullpen and found himself.

Angel Pagan was drafted in 1999 by the Mets, purchased by the Cubs in 2006 and traded back to the Mets in 2008. He became an infamous 4th OF type with the Mets and was traded for Ramon Ramirez and Andres Torres in 2011. Since then he has become a critical part of the Giants organization becoming a perfect example of a player who needed a change of scenery.

Joaquin Arias had a short stint with the Mets back in 2010 as he played in 30 games, had 33 ABs and hit .200. The last couple of seasons he has found himself in the Giants organization playing in at least 100 games since 2012 hitting over .270 twice and .250 once.

This series of articles will take us across every organization in baseball and look for former Mets in the majors and minors to see how they are doing, leading up to a “Former Mets Team” to see how the current Mets stack up with pieces we have all over the place. I am still looking for Mets team members on the Pirates, Rangers, White Sox and Tigers. If you any, please let me know!

The surprise of last year was Jacob deGrom. Last year, the year without Harvey, was supposed to be Wheeler’s time to step up with Syndergaard coming the following year. In addition, Montero was the player labeled most likely to break through from the minors to the majors but then deGrom happened on his way to a rookie of the year award. Here’s a reminder of his 2014 numbers:

2014 Stats: 9-6, 22 G, 140.1 IP, 144 K, 43 BB, 1.14 WHIP, 2.69 ERA

It was an amazing year for deGrom. Lets take a look at how the computers predict deGrom will follow up his rookie year performance:

PECOTA (BP): 8-9, 25 G, 147.2 IP, 126 K, 42 BB, 1.19 WHIP, 3.47 ERA
PECOTA (MLB.com): 9-8, 144 IP, 121 K, 41 BB, 1.20 WHIP, 3.56 ERA
MLB.com: 12-8, 180 IP, 161 K, 49 BB, 1.17 WHIP, 3.15 ERA
ZiPS: 29 G, 174.1 IP, 159 K, 53 BB, 3.30 ERA
Steamer: 10-10, 29 G, 163.0 IP, 145 K, 52 BB, 3.92 ERA
ESPN: 12-9, 177 K, 1.18 WHIP, 3.25 ERA

Average: 10.2 – 8.8, 27.6 G, 161.2 IP, 1.19 WHIP, 3.44 ERA

So the computers project a season that is good but not as good as his rookie season. Expecting anything else from computer models after the rookie season deGrom had would be silly. Some projections were a little more bullish on a sophomore year than other, like ESPN. Others saw a huge regression, like Steamer (you could say Steamer called for a Steamer of a sophomore season, ha!).

The new look Padres currently hold three former Mets players in their organization: Dale Thayer, Jose Valverde and Juan Carlos Gamboa.

Dale Thayer had a very short stint with the Mets in 2011 where he pitched 11 games and 10.1 innings with a 3.48 ERA. He was originally drafted in the 1999 draft by the Cubs, signed as a free agent with the Padres in 2002, was traded to the Rays in 2006, signed with the Mets in 2011 and then signed with the Padres before the 2012 season. Since then he became a crucial part of the Padres bullpen pitching 64, 69 and 70 games from 2012 on.

Jose Valverde also had a very short Mets stint last year. The veteran signed with the Mets last year, stepped up as a closer as Parnell went down with injury and was then dismissed with Farnsworth as neither really performed well for the Mets. Valverde put up a 5.66 ERA and signed as a free agent with Padres in January.

Juan Carlos Gamboa was drafted away from the Mets in the rule V draft. Despite the Mets need for a middle infielder, he didn’t quite cut it as someone that the Mets saw at short vs other internal options, so he was left unprotected.

This series of articles will take us across every organization in baseball and look for former Mets in the majors and minors to see how they are doing, leading up to a “Former Mets Team” to see how the current Mets stack up with pieces we have all over the place. I am still looking for Mets team members on the Pirates, Rangers, White Sox and Tigers. If you any, please let me know!

Bartolo Colon, believe it or not, probably plays a critical role in the Mets rotation this year. With all of the young guns coming up, Colon represents the veteran in the rotation. Plus, while the offensive talents of the team are still in question, an effective Colon could be the extra edge the team needs. (Brace yourself for the dumbest sentence I’ve ever wrote): Colon was great last year, except for the starts where he wasn’t. Those starts were awful and brought down his numbers. Colon was able to put up these numbers last year:

2014 Stats: 15-13, 31 G, 202.1 IP, 151 K, 30 BB, 1.23 WHIP, 4.09 ERA

Did you remember that K to BB ratio? I completely forgot about how effective he was. Anyway lets take a look at the projections:

PECOTA (BP): 10-10, 28 G, 175 IP, 123 K, 29 BB, 1.16 WHIP, 3.54 ERA
PECOTA (MLB.com): 9-9, 144 IP, 100 K, 41 BB, 1.16 WHIP, 3.63 ERA
MLB.com: 10-13, 193 IP, 137 K, 32 BB, 1.23 WHIP, 3.96 ERA
ZiPS: 26 G, 167.2 IP, 115 K, 27 BB, 4.03 ERA
Steamer: 9-10, 27 G, 163 IP, 113 K, 27 BB, 4.17 ERA
ESPN: 10 W, 122 K, 1.23 WHIP, 4.00 ERA

Average: 9.6 – 10.5, 27 G, 168 IP, 127 K, 31.2 BB, 1.20 WHIP, 3.89 ERA

The computers are split on whether Colon is going to have a better year, a similar year or a slightly worse year. So it averages together to be about the same year. I will honestly take a 3.89 ERA from a back of the rotation pitcher on the Mets who is at age 42.