213 Miles From Shea

We continue a month plus long journey looking at as many stat projections for as many Mets players as it make sense to do so, starting with pitchers, working towards hitters. Specifically, we’ll continue with pitchers who could start this year for the Mets.

There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Matt Harvey:

Matt Harvey had a terrible year last year and it was pretty much the entire season. He couldn’t feel his fingers which in hindsight should have been a sign right away that something was wrong. He’s coming off of a very tough injury/surgery.

That being said, most of the projection programs like what they see in Matt. They don’t see an ace coming back on the mound, but they don’t see a back of the rotation person either. What is concerning is most projection programs see a decrease in inning totals, not getting near 30 starts which if Harvey could do, would be a tremendous milestone in his young career.

In a similar theme this week, Baseball America still projects Harvey above and beyond to have the best season compared to the other programs. These glorious projections from Baseball America probably say more about their algorithm than the Mets pitching staff.

Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)

Notes:
Article Written on 2/26, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data

We continue a month plus long journey looking at as many stat projections for as many Mets players as it make sense to do so, starting with pitchers, working towards hitters. Specifically, we’ll continue with pitchers who could start this year for the Mets.

There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Steven Matz:

Last year was a tough year for Matz. He came up in 2015 throwing fire, got injured, was out for a while, came back and had some solid starts in the playoffs. Last year his first start was horrific and then was great until injury ended his season, hurting his numbers in his last few starts of the season. With the exception of one provider, stats see his numbers being very similar to last year, with a few extra starts. This is interesting as it is tempering expectations.

It is worth noting that I’m down on someone right now who is projecting to post about a 3.30 ERA, which is how good the Mets rotation is. A few seasons ago I would have been completely fine with that.

Statistic Anomaly: Baseball America really is going all in with the Mets pitching corps. Yesterday they had Jacob deGrom with an ERA better than the rest and here they have Matz a full run below the average.

Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)

Notes:
Article Written on 2/26, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data

We continue the month plus long journey looking at as many stat projections for as many Mets players as it make sense to do so, starting with pitchers, working towards hitters. Specifically, we’ll continue with pitchers who could start this year for the Mets.

There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Jacob deGrom:

Jacob deGrom has been the steady pitcher for the Mets, even though he hasn’t been in the majors that long. His numbers from last year are spoiled by a series of bad starts right before he left for the season due to injury. My gut tells me it is the combination of those starts plus rising concerns coming back from the injury that kept most of his projections for this year more human (but still really good). It is slightly alarming seeing some of the more well known projection companies (Baseball Prospectus, Steamer) seeing large increases in ERA this year.

Statistic Anomalies: Baseball America is all in on deGrom having an MVP type season in terms of ERA and WHIP, just not in length.

Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)

Notes:
Article Written on 2/26, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data

I thought yesterday was the last one but the Mets added a non-roster invitee! Ty Kelly!

Ty Kelly didn’t make the first round because he was, actually, on the roster. The Mets then signed some relievers and had to designate Ty Kelly for assignment.

Kelly was a non-roster invitee last season and got a called up as the injuries mounted. Last year he played in 39 major league games with 58 AB’s putting up a .241/.352/.345 line recording 14 hits, a double, a triple, and a homer.

The positives for Ty Kelly: he walked a bunch of times. 14 hits, 11 walks, pretty good! But he didn’t show a lot of power in the majors. Ty Kelly is firmly on the depth chart and that’s going tend up hurting him. Mostly he’s a corner infielder or a corner outfielder, both where the Mets just have a log jam of players.

It will be a hard road for Kelly, there are a lot of players in front of him. He’ll also get a good amount of playing time since he’s heading off to play for Israel in the WBC.

Today starts a month plus long journey looking at as many stat projections for as many Mets players as it make sense to do so, starting with pitchers, working towards hitters. Specifically, we’ll start with pitchers who could start this year for the Mets.

There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Noah Syndergaard:

Anomalies: NBC Rotoworld has a huge win total, HUGE. The general consensus across all publications is Syndergaard is the Mets bets pitcher, but NBC Rotoworld has Noah putting up MVP-esque numbers.

In general, the the projections have Noah at very close to his year numbers last year if not slightly better in most categories (outside of ERA). The ERA numbers seemed to be pulled upward by Steamer and Baseball Prospectus. I don’t feel comfortable calling this an anomaly due to BP’s track record with stat projections.

Syndergaard is the Mets ace of aces right now and the Mets will need him to put up a season like the one he is statistically projected here to produce.

Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)

Notes:
Article Written on 2/26, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data

Our last Non-Roster Invitee preview! And it’s a power hitting outfielder in Travis Tajieron!

Travis Taijeron is a power hitting corner outfield. Here are his homer numbers from the last few seasons:

• 2013: 23
• 2014: 15
• 2015: 25
• 2016: 19

On top of that he had a decent slash line last year of .275/.372/.512. He showed off his power on his NRI last spring with the Mets.

Here’s the problem with Travis: he’s getting up there in age (he’ll be 28 this season) and the Mets have a lot of major league talent, too much major league talent that has the same strength.

If the Mets didn’t have Michael Conforto AND didn’t have Jay Bruce, then Taijeron would have an outside shot to see more playing time this year but the Mets are flushed with power hitting corner outfielders.

Ultimately, I’m looking forward to Travis putting on another good show at Spring Training and keeping his name alive if the unexpected happens. Just for fun, it’s worth looking at his 2017 ZiPS projections. If he has 469 plate appearances, ZiPS sees him hitting 17 homers but only hitting .202/.294/.393. That is of course, Taijeron’s weakness.

The Baseball Prospectus 2017 Annual sums up my excitement and hesitation about Champ Stuart beautifully and succinctly: “Champ Stuart, speed demon from the Bahamas, is perfectly qualified to be the Mets’ Terrance Gore, right down to the inability to hit upper-minors pitching”. Since Champ’s team for the WBC didn’t make it out of qualifiers (Great Britain), we’ll get to see him in the Spring.

His first 71 games in St. Lucie was his best in the minors as he put up a .265/.347/.407 slash line spraying 73 hits, 9 doubles, 6 triples and 6 homers with 25 steals. Then he went to Binghamton and his slash line dropped to .201/.264/.261 with 37 hits, 3 doubles, a triple, 2 homers, 15 steals.

All of last year he was a center fielder, which is what the Mets are going to need down the road as everyone keeps turning into a corner outfielder. Plus, he has speed and the Mets haven’t a consistent speedy person in a few season. If he can step up this year and figure out how to hit in AA, then he’s going to work his way into conversations about future squads. Right now, he seems far away behind outfield competition that is quite complicated.

Dominic Smith is by far the most well known player on the Mets Non-Roster Invitee list. Before the 2016 season these were Smith’s prospect rankings:

• Baseball America, #79
• MLB.com. #51
• Baseball Prosectus, #86

Before this season, these are Smith’s prospect rankings:

• Baseball America, #71
• MLB.com, #63
• Baseball Prospectus, Not Ranked.

It would seem from these rankings that Smith’s stock is dropping. He had his best year in the minors so far last year putting up a .302/.367/.457 line finally showing some power as he hit 14 homers, up from 6 the year before and 1 the year before that.

The problem: Smith is a first basemen. Moderate power and spray hitting won’t cut it in a position where he needs to display a lot of power. Plus, he was drafted to develop power. The expectations of showing a lot of power and playing in a power position have hurt his perception. Still working as an advantage for him: his age. He’ll be 22 this season, still enough time to start showing some pop since he’s making solid contact.

Like a few other players in the system, if he keeps hitting, even not for power, the Mets are going to have to call him up. He’s blocked by Lucas Duda right now, but if the Mets made it through a season replacing Lucas Duda with James Loney, they could do a lot worse replacing Lucas Duda with Dom Smith.

The Mets journey with Shortstops over the 5+ years has been a wild ride. There was Reyes departing and the rise of Tejada while waiting for Flores. Then Tejada didn’t quite work out. Neither did Flores. So a cast of other characters came in to try to bridge the gap, but that didn’t really work out either. Then the Mets signed Cabrera, Rosario stepped it up in the minors and a replacement level player in Reynolds appeared.

And now the Mets have Luis Guillorme coming through the system. Luis is protected by not being Rosario so he’s gone under the radar but he’s been with the Mets since 2013 at age 18 in the Gulf Coast league.

In four seasons in the minors he has hit a respectable .285/.355/.326. He doesn’t really have pop yet, at all, but his offense isn’t what he’s known for. As the Baseball Prospectus 2017 Annual puts it, he’s “the best defensive infielder in the system”.

Luis is still quite young (will be 22 this season) and the Mets don’t need him to be a bonfide hitting stud. But just a little increase in power and his value will move. He also hasn’t played above St. Lucie yet.

Let’s see how he does this spring against tougher pitchers and revisit at the end of the season where he is on the Mets depth chart and where he should go.

Phillip Evan’s is sort of coming out of nowhere. He signed with the Mets after being drafted in the 15th round in the 2011 draft as a high school student so the 24 year old has the combination of both being young and with the Mets for a while. He started out 2016 with the St. Lucie squad hitting .143/.273/.143 but then he had an opportunity to go up to Binghamton and everything changed.

He played 96 games in Binghamton with a .335/.374/.485 line, which is tremendous. In 361 AB’s he hit 121 hits, 30 doubles and 8 homers. He’s a middle infielder spraying the ball. Sound familiar? The Mets had another player who made a leap like that last year (T.J. Rivera).

Now there’s a lot of players in the way of Phillip Evans getting the bench spot (Reyes, Walker, Wright, Flores, Rivera and Cabrera) for three positions. I’m curious to see what happens if Evans is given time in the PCL. does he keep up the hitting? He hasn’t put numbers like he did last year at any other time.

I am confident about this though: If Phillip Evans puts up similar numbers, or close numbers, to what he did in Binghamton last year, and somehow doesn’t make the 40-man by the end of the season, he’s going to have to be traded otherwise he’s going to get snatched in the Rule V draft.