213 Miles From Shea

We continue a month plus long journey looking at as many stat projections for as many Mets players as it make sense to do so, starting with pitchers, working towards hitters. Specifically, we’ll start with pitchers who could relieve this year for the Mets.

There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Eric Goeddel:

His season was sidelined by injuries that weren’t really understood until the end of the season. As such, the projections see Goeddel seeing an increase in playing time with slightly improved ERA numbers and slightly worse WHIP numbers. Goeddel may have to be a lightning in the bottle type case, show a strong outing in a game, to get regular playing time int he Mets pen as Terry sometimes lets pitchers who aren’t the last pitcher he used waste away in the pen.

Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)

Notes:
Article Written on 2/26, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data

We continue a month plus long journey looking at as many stat projections for as many Mets players as it make sense to do so, starting with pitchers, working towards hitters. Specifically, we’ll continue with pitchers who could relieve this year for the Mets.

There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Jerry Blevins:

Jerry was a critical signing for the Mets at the end of the off-season and the Mets got him for the price they wanted. Similar to other pitchers we’ve seen over the last couple of weeks, Blevins is projected to have an increase in ERA but a decrease in WHIP (although for Blevins it looks to stay the same). I do wonder if these projections are susceptible to the Mets using Jerry differently. He’s supposed to be a lefty specialist, but I can see the Mets mixing him up, especially since his numbers were better against right handed batters last year.

Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)

Notes:
Article Written on 2/26, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data

We continue a month plus long journey looking at as many stat projections for as many Mets players as it make sense to do so, starting with pitchers, working towards hitters. Specifically, we’ll continue with pitchers who could relieve this year for the Mets.

There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Fernando Salas:

Fernando Salas had a phenomenal end of the season with the Mets last year where he walked no one in 17.1 innings of relief and posted a sparkling 0.63 WHIP. He’s not going to put up those numbers again but the season numbers the projection sources have for him look reasonable. Also helpful, there is strong agreement between the different sources on how much he will pitch and what those results are, making the average line a likely possibility for Salas.

Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)

Notes:
Article Written on 2/26, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data

We continue a month plus long journey looking at as many stat projections for as many Mets players as it make sense to do so, starting with pitchers, working towards hitters. Specifically, we’ll continue with pitchers who could relieve this year for the Mets.

There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Sean Gilmartin:

I’m not sure where Gilmartin fits in with this club. Three of the four sources that did projections for Gilmartin see him as someone who will get about half a season of action as a starter. I guess he fits as a 5th starter if Wheeler, Gsellman and Lugo all don’t work out. His projections are exactly where I would expect him to be. The 17.2 innings last year wasn’t a lot of time to really make a strong statement about his ability. His average line above screams “back of the rotation / spot starter” type pitcher, who is exactly what he is.

Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)

Notes:
Article Written on 2/26, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data

Today starts a month plus long journey looking at as many stat projections for as many Mets players as it make sense to do so, starting with pitchers, working towards hitters. Specifically, we’ll start with pitchers who could start this year for the Mets.

There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Noah Syndergaard:

Important Note: This article was written before the league and team made a decision on Familia.

What I found fascinating in the above chart was Baseball Prospectus, who is convinced that Robles becomes the closer when Familia is out.

Also looking at projections for several seasons now, I felt Robles was a candidate for a pitcher whose projection numbers would be far worse than his previous years, but that doesn’t seem the case here. There is strong agreement for the amount of games Robles will be in, range of ERA and range of WHIPs. The average line seems probable and welcome out of the Mets pen.

Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)

Notes:
Article Written on 2/26, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data

We continue a month plus long journey looking at as many stat projections for as many Mets players as it make sense to do so, starting with pitchers, working towards hitters. Specifically, we’ll continue with pitchers who could relieve this year for the Mets.

There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Addison Reed:

Important Note: This article was written before any league and team decision was made about Familia, which will, of course, affect Reed.

The projections don’t see Reed repeating his stellar season, but they still have him posting a way above average season. What Reed did last year was insane, so it would be surprising to see him repeat it (although Baseball America seems to think that he will). It is shocking to see how much Baseball Prospectus thinks Reed regresses this. My gut feels the average line looks right.

Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)

Notes:
Article Written on 2/26, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data

We continue a month plus long journey looking at as many stat projections for as many Mets players as it make sense to do so, starting with pitchers, working towards hitters. Specifically, we’ll continue with pitchers who could relieve this year for the Mets.

There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Jeurys Familia:

Important Note: This article was written before a decision has been made about Familia’s future with the team.

Looking at the projections, it is clear that some programs/programers took into account that Familia will have a suspension this year (which he absolutely should: the Mets cannot sweep domestic violence under the rug).

Because of the differences in time Familia will have on the mound, the only stats that make sense to look at are ERA and WHIP. The averages his ERA rising but his WHIP dropping which odd but whatever. Cut off here is his save projections which are, respective to the list above, 40, 38, n/a, 38, 27, 30, 30, 38, 37, 21 with an average of 33.

Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)

Notes:
Article Written on 2/26, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data

We continue a month plus long journey looking at as many stat projections for as many Mets players as it make sense to do so, starting with pitchers, working towards hitters. Today is our last pitcher projected to be a starter at times this season.

There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Seth Lugo:

With Robert Gsellman, Seth Lugo saved the team down the stretch coming and being awesome. Unlike the Gsellman, the projection programs are pretty set on exactly how many steps back Lugo will take this year if given playing time. It is good to remember though that any team would love to have a pitcher with a 4.24 ERA as their 5th starter, and really Lugo doesn’t look like the 5th start.

It is remarkable how in range all of the projections are with each other, especially with a player coming into his second season with question marks on playing times and batter exposure to his pitches.

Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)

Notes:
Article Written on 2/26, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data

We continue a month plus long journey looking at as many stat projections for as many Mets players as it make sense to do so, starting with pitchers, working towards hitters. Specifically, w are nearing the end of Mets starters this year.

There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Zack Wheeler:

Huge question, especially since this article was written on 2/26: what will Wheeler do this year? Does he start? Does he work out of the pen?

Wheeler hasn’t pitched since 2014, but you follow the Mets so you already know that. Wheels Up had a good year back then but it’s been a while and I’m of the mindset that anything the Mets get out of Wheeler this year is bonus. The consensus of the projection programs looks like they are looking at a player who missed the last two seasons. They are all over the place on innings pitched. They aren’t too far off on ERA and WHIP though, and those numbers would be reasonable and welcomed from a pitcher like Wheeler who missed so much time.

Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)

Notes:
Article Written on 2/26, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data

We continue a month plus long journey looking at as many stat projections for as many Mets players as it make sense to do so, starting with pitchers, working towards hitters. Specifically, we’ll continue with pitchers who could start this year for the Mets.

There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Robert Gsellman:

Robert Gsellman was one half of the duo of rookie starting pitchers who saved the Mets season last year (other one being Seth Lugo) as the Mets rotation of aces started to fall by way of the injury bug. He put together a fantastic rookie season.

Obviously the projections see him taking steps back this year, which makes sense, it would be absurd to think he go back and 2.42 again, that would be in the Cy Young conversation (also a 2.42 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP seems unsustainable throughout the course of a whole season). Looking at the numbers more closely, the projections are pretty split on Robert. Several think he is going to have a normal, middle of the rotation year, several think he’s going to be a star (surprise, surprise, it’s Baseball America). The projections are also quite splite on the amount of time he’ll see. No one see’s a full load with a glut of them sitting at 140-ish innings.

My gut says he makes more sense as the fifth starter than Wheeler, but we’ll see as the season goes on.

Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)

Notes:
Article Written on 2/26, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data