213 Miles From Shea

The Mets are in a rough stretch right now. They have lost eight of their last nine games, including a seven game losing streak that they snapped back on Saturday. The good news is that they have hit 10 home runs in their last three games. The bad news is they lost two of those games, they were all solo home runs and seven of those homers happened in the same game (which isn’t technically bad news, but unfortunate news if you’re trying to win more than one game). Anyway tonight is another chance to reset themselves before they end of June as they welcome the Braves to Citi Field.

Paul Blackburn has totaled 13 innings over four games and two starts this season with a 6.92 ERA, 3.76 FIP, 1.692 WHIP and a 57 ERA+. In his first start of the season against the Dodgers he allowed no runs and only three hits over five innings. Since then he has allowed 11 runs, 10 earned, from 15 hits. This includes a start against the Braves last week where he allowed four runs, three earned over 3 2/3 innings. The Braves have the following career numbers against Blackburn:

• Ronald Acuña Jr. 1-3, HR, BB
• Ozzie Albies 3-4, 2 2B, 3B
• Nick Allen 0-1
• Drake Baldwin 0-2, K
• Michael Harris II 0-4
• Sean Murphy 1-1, BB
• Matt Olson 0-3, BB, K
• Marcell Ozuna 0-3, K
• Austin Riley 2-3, BB, K
• Alex Verdugo 4-12, 2 2B

The Mets bats will try to get something going again against Spencer Schwellenbach. Last week the Mets scored four runs over seven innings thanks to two home runs against Schwellenbach, in a game the Mets eventually lost in extra-innings. Overall this season, Schwellenbach has pitched 96 2/3 innings over 15 starts with a 3.26 ERA, 3.34 FIP, 1.014 WHIP and a 126 ERA+. The Mets have the following career stats against Schwellenbach:

• Luisangel Acuña 0-2
• Pete Alonso 4-11, 2B, BB, 2 K
• Francisco Lindor 0-9, 2 K
• Starling Marte 0-3
• Ronny Mauricio 0-3, 2 K
• Jeff McNeil 2-6, 2B
• Brandon Nimmo 0-12, 4 K
• Juan Soto 1-2, HR, BB
• Tyrone Taylor 4-8, 2 2B, HR, 2 K
• Luis Torrens 0-2, 2 K
• Jared Young 0-3, 2 K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Lindor is back! After five consecutive games without a hit, Lindor has recorded two straight multi-hit games. Over his last two games Lindor has gone 4-for-9 at the plate with a double and two home runs. The problem for the Mets though is they aren’t really hitting when Lindor (or anyone) is on base, and the only runs Lindor has scored over the last two games are his own home runs.
2. Positive under-the-hood metrics for Paul Blackburn. Outside of his first start, Blackburn’s results have looked pretty bad season. There are some real positive statcast numbers for Blackburn though. Hitters are only getting hard hits against 27.1% of the time, which is near the top of the league (league averages is in the lower 40’s). This has been true for Blackburn throughout his four games. The average exit velocity for Blackburn is 87.3 mph (89.5 league average) and hitters are barrelling the ball 6.7% of the time (8.6 league average). Let’s see if that holds true when he faces the Braves for a second time.
3. Tyrone Taylor. Were you surprised by Taylor’s lifetime numbers against Schwellenbach? I was! We already know that Taylor is a major asset for the Mets in the field (94th percentile for fielding run value, 91st in range, 97th in arm value and 83rd in arm strength). While his hitting has left a lot to be desired, he’s doing somethings well. He is in the 99th percentile for launch angle sweet spot. While his batting average is .232, his expected batting average is .276!

Let’s Go Mets!

How good did Saturday’s game feel? The Mets finally broke their seven game losing streak with a solid 11-4 win over the Phillies thanks to an offensive revelation. The Mets broke out the lumber to slug seven solo home runs against the Phillies, forcing a rubber game tonight. Let’s take the series and and completely flip the narrative of the last week!

David Peterson has tossed 86 2/3 innings this season with a 2.60 ERA, 3.07 FIP, 1.188 WHIP and a 147 ERA+. Over three starts in June he has pitched 23 innings with a 2.35 ERA, 2.42 FIP. The highlight, of course, was his complete game shutout against the Nationals on June 11th. He’s now pitched seven innings or more in four of his last five starts, and at least six innings in six of his last eight. Peterson had a solid start against the Phillies in April holding them to two runs over 5 1/3 innings from eight hits and a walk. The Phillies have the following career numbers against Peterson:

• Alec Bohm 9-26, 2 2B, 2 HR, BB, 6 K
• Nick Castellanos 6-15, 2B, 4 K
• Buddy Kennedy 1-3, 2B
• Rafael Marchan 2-2
• Brandon Marsh 2-3, HR
• J.T. Realmuto 3-21, 2B, 3 BB, 4 K
• Johan Rojas 2-9, 2B, BB, 2 K
• Kyle Schwarber 2-21, 2B, 3 BB, 11 K
• Edmundo Sosa 3-5
• Bryson Stott 0-3, BB, K
• Trea Turner 4-22, 2 2B, 2 BB, 6 K

 Jesús Luzardo has had an interesting season to say the least. Over 15 starts and 83 2/3 innings he has a 4.41 ERA, 2.88 FIP, 1.434 WHIP and a 96 ERA+. Until the end of May, Luzardo was cruising, going deep into games, racking up strikeouts with a 2.15 ERA. Then over two starts he allowed 20 earned runs over 5 2/3 innings. He bounced back against the Cubs on June 11th, holding them one run but struggled his last time out allowing four runs against the Marlins.

Luzardo has not faced the Mets yet this season but last season he held the Mets to two runs over 11 2/3 innings across two starts. The Mets have the following career stats against the former-Marlin now-Phillie:

• Pete Alonso 2-22, HR, 10 K
• Francisco Alvarez 0-5
• Brett Baty 1-3
• Francisco Lindor 4-18, 2 BB,3 K
• Starling Marte 4-11, 2 K
• Ronny Mauricio 0-2, BB, 2 K
• Jeff McNeil 5-12, 2 K
• Brandon Nimmo 3-12, 2B, HR, 2 BB, 3 K
• Juan Soto 5-13, 2B, HR, 3 BB, 2 K
• Tyrone Taylor 2-6, 2B, K
• Luis Torrens 2-4, HR, K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Home runs. The Mets have hit nine home runs in this series, including seven of them Saturday night. It was enough to take the Mets from seventh in the majors back to sixth, which is where they’ve been for the last two seasons. They are also facing a pitcher tonight who has struggled in three of his last four starts. Keep the same game plan as Saturday night – slug some balls out of CBP and keep the pressure on the Phillies.
2. Mets All-Time Home Run Leaderboard. Alonso homered on Friday night, bringing him to 244 for his career, just eight behind Strawberry’s franchise leading 252. Brandon Nimmo homered twice Saturday night and Lindor homered once, bringing both of them to 125 career Mets home runs, which tied Lucas Duda for 9th on the all-time list. With Conforto at 132 career Mets home runs at 8th, the Mets top ten is going to look different at the end of this season.
3. Juan Soto. Sometimes Juan Soto does Juan Soto things. Saturday night Soto went 4-for-5 at the plate with two home runs. Friday night he went 0-for-2 with two walks. That means he’s already been on base six times this series!

Let’s Go Mets!

It has been a rough gauntlet for the Mets for the last eight days and they have not stepped up to the challenge. The Phillies beat the Mets Friday night extending their losing streak to seven games. The Mets were facing another tough starting pitcher in Zack Wheeler and had a chance in the first inning loading the bases, but grounded into a double play to end the inning without scoring runs. From that point on Wheeler looked like Wheeler and just mowed through the Mets lineup.

The Mets hit back-to-back solo homers off Taijuan Walker to tie the game, but then the Mets bullpen completely felly apart and the Mets lost 10-2. They just need to win one game to get back on the right track.

Griffin Canning has pitched 68 2/3 innings this season with a 3.80 ERA, 4.20 FIP, 1.398 WHIP and a 101 ERA+. He’s coming off of a rough start against the Rays where he allowed six runs from four hits and five walks over 4 1/3 innings. In total he’s allowed 10 runs over his last two starts. He was great though against the Phillies earlier this season holding them to only one run from seven hits and a walk over five innings. The Phillies have the following career numbers against him:

• Alec Bohm 2-5, K
• Nick Castellanos 2-11, 2B, 3B, 2 K
• Max Kepler 2-3, 2B, BB, K
• Brandon Marsh 0-0, BB
• J.T. Realmuto 1-2, 2B
• Johan Rojas 1-3, BB, K
• Kyle Schwarber 2-5, BB
• Bryson Stott 2-5
• Trea Turner 1-5, K

The Mets bats will try to break out of their funk against rookie right-hander Mick Abel. The former top-100 prospect is off to a good start, pitching 20 1/3 innings over four games with a 2.21 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 1.033 WHIP and a 194 ERA+. In three of his four starts he has allowed zero or one runs. The other start was against the Cubs, the best offense he has faced so far, where he allowed three solo home runs. Abel has not thrown beyond 89 pitches yet in a major league game this season, and has gone any where between four and six innings of work.

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Flash some power. There was a modicum of hope Friday night when Alonso and McNeil both homered. The Mets love hitting homers in Philly. Abel has been hit hard, at home when facing a lineup with some pop. Start the game with a bang and get the momentum again Mets!
2. Francisco Lindor. Speaking of starting the game with a bang, the Mets need Lindor to be Lindor. His hitless streak stretched to a fifth game Friday night. He has now gone 0-for-18 with two walks in his last five games and is slashing .188/.264/.250 since breaking his pinky toe.
3. Brett Baty. From May 9th to May 31st Baty played in 20 games slashing .310/.355/.621 collecting 18 hits in 62 trips to the plate including five home runs. June has not been as kind to Baty. Over 15 games he has gone .125/.189/.250 with only six hits in 53 plate appearances (including two home runs). The Mets need May Baty back!

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets are now entering the most consequential stretch of games this season. The Mets have lost six straight games, including being swept by the Braves. They enter play today 15 games above .500 tied with the Phillies. Next on their schedule are three games against the Phillies followed by four more games against the Braves. A solid week, starting tonight, can quickly erase last week from our memories. A difficult week could turn this month into a June swoon.

The current Mets pitching situation is making things even more difficult for the Mets. The Mets had to burn Justin Hagenman Thursday night, who was slated to be the spot starter today. Luckily the Mets had a backup plan in Blade Tidwell.

Blade Tidwell made his major league debut about six weeks ago against the Cardinals on May 4th where he allowed six runs from nine hits and three walks over 3 2/3 innings. Things have looked better for Tidwell in Syracuse where he has pitched 62 1/3 innings over 13 games (11 starts) with a 4.76 ERA, 1.267 WHIP. He is coming off of a rough start on June 15th where he allowed six runs from seven hits over 3 2/3 innings.

The Mets bats have been in bad place this week and the matchups haven’t done them any favors. In the last three games they have faced Spencer Schwellenbach, Chris Sale, Spencer Strider and now Zack Wheeler. Wheeler is having another tremendous season, pitching 88 innings with a 2.76 ERA, 2.76 FIP, 0.886 WHIP and a 151 ERA+. He’s allowed three runs, two earned over his last two starts (12 innings) while striking out 16 batters. Earlier this season he allowed two runs over six innings from five hits against the Mets. The Mets have the following career numbers against Wheeler:

• Luisangel Acuña 1-3
• Pete Alonso 10-40, 2 2B, 2 BB, 12 K
• Francisco Alvarez 0-4, BB, 2 K
• Brett Baty 4-10, HR, 2 K
• Francisco Lindor 9-33, 2B, 3B, HR, 2 BB, 6 K
• Starling Marte 7-25, 2B, 3B, BB
• Ronny Mauricio 1-3, K
• Jeff McNeil 7-33, 2 BB, 8 K
• Brandon Nimmo 13-49, 3 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 8 K
• Juan Soto 14-53, 2 2B, 3 HR, 14 BB, 15 K
• Tyrone Taylor 2-12

Three Things To Watch For:

1. The Mets bats. The offense has has looked terrible this past week. Wednesday the Mets only got one hitter beyond first base. Thursday they went 1-for-8 with RISP and struck out an astounding 13 times. Five players struck out twice. The last time Wheeler faced the Mets he struck out 9 batters. The Mets just need to relax at the plate and remember their strengths.
2. Doubles are a strength. Despite the Mets difficult time at the plate recently, they are still sixth in the league in doubles with Nimmo and Marte adding doubles Thursday night. They have 279 doubles on the season, just one behind the Blue Jays.
3. Francisco Lindor. The Mets need their leader right now. He’s gone hitless in four consecutive games (0-for-14) with two walks and four strikeouts. Since breaking his pinky toe, He’s gone 9-for-44 with three extra-base hits (no home runs) and five walks, slashing .205/.286/.273. Lets hope he starts returning to his normal career numbers tonight!

Let’s Go Mets!

It’s been a tough week for the Mets. The Braves beat the Mets 5-0 and have a chance to sweep the Mets tonight in Atlanta. It would be the second consecutive series being swept for the Mets. Wednesday night was a night to forget for the Mets who only squeaked out five hits and a walk. They went 0-for-1 with runners in scoring position. The Mets just need one good game to get the offense roaring again.

Clay Holmes looks to play the role of stopper tonight. Over 14 starts this season Holmes has pitched 78 1/3 innings with a 2.87 ERA, 3.93 FIP, 1.174 WHIP and a 132 ERA+. Over his last two starts he has allowed two runs from 12 hits and two walks over 11 innings. Both runs were scored on solo home runs which has been the only weakness in his game as of late. All nine home runs he’s allowed this season have happened since May 9th. The Braves have the following career numbers against him:

• Ronald Acuña Jr. 0-1, BB
• Ozzie Albies 1-2, 2B, BB
• Stuart Fairchild 0-1, 2 BB
• Michael Harris II 0-1
• Sean Murphy 0-2, 2 K
• Marcell Ozuna 0-2, BB, K
• Austin Riley 0-3, K
• Alex Verdugo 3-6, 3 BB, K

Spencer Strider has mostly had a rough return from injury. Over 31 innings he has a 4.35 ERA, 4.32 FIP, 1.161 WHIP and a 94 ERA+ while striking out 37 batters. That being said, he’s coming off of a classic Strider start where he held the Rockies scoreless over six innings, scattering three hits while striking out 13. It was by far his best start of the season. His previous best start was 4 2/3 innings against the Phillies, allowing one run from one hit and four walks while striking out seven. The Mets have the following career numbers against Strider:

• Pete Alonso 2-12, 2B, HR, 2 BB, 7 K
• Francisco Alvarez 1-5, HR, BB, 3 K
• Brett Baty 2-4, K
• Francisco Lindor 6-16, 3B, 2 BB, 2 K
• Starling Marte 2-7, 2 BB, 3 K
• Jeff McNeil 3-13, 2B, 2 K
• Brandon Nimmo 8-16, 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 2 K
• Juan Soto 2-7, 3 BB

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Spencer Strider’s Slider. Strider has a devastating slider, but it has been widely reported it’s just not the same since his surgery. Right now it’s average 83.8 mph, before the injury it was 85-86 mph. So far he’s using it around the same amount that he used to (about a third of the time). Will he eventually need to change his pitch mix? For tonight, the Mets need to see how it moves and hopefully they can take advantage of a slightly slower slider.
2. Brandon Nimmo. Nimmo has fantastic numbers against Spencer Strider. He’s hitting .500/.579/1.063 against Strider over his career with 16 at-bats. Nimmo has a 112 OPS+ this season, a slight improvement over his 107 OPS+ from last season, but still a far cray from the four years from 2020-2023 where he was hitting with at least a 128 OPS+.
3. Jeff McNeil. Jeff’s single Wednesday night extended his on base streak to 20 games. Over his on-base streak he has hit .300/.367/.571 with 21 hits and nine extra-base hits raising his season line from .226/.355/.435to .265/.361/.508. For context, John Olerud has the longest Mets on-base streak at 47 games set between the 1998 and 1999 seasons.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets are sliding right now, and not in the fun, playground type of way. The Braves handed the Mets their fourth consecutive loss, this time in extra-innings as the Mets couldn’t hold onto their early lead and let it slip away in the 8th inning. The Mets have also been bitten by the injury bug this past week adding Tylor Megill to the injured list. This gives Paul Blackburn a chance to join the rotation today and play the role of stopper against Chris Sale.

Paul Blackburn has allowed seven runs over 9 1/3 innings from 14 hits and two walks since rejoining the Mets. He looked fantastic in his first start, allowing no runs from three hits over five innings against the high-powered Dodgers lineup. He allowed three runs in relief in his next start, and then added another four runs in relief last Friday. Atlanta has the following career numbers against Blackburn:

• Ronald Acuña Jr. 0-2
• Ozzie Albies 1-2, 2B
• Michael Harris II 0-2
• Sean Murphy 1-1, BB
• Matt Olson 0-1, BB, K
• Marcell Ozuna 0-2, K
• Austin Riley 2-2
• Alex Verdugo 3-10, 2 2B

The Mets bats will try to get back on the right track tonight against Chris Sale. Over 80 2/3 innings, Sale has a 2.79 ERA, 2.74 FIP, 1.215 WHIP and a 146 ERA+. He’s been on a roll over his last five starts allowing only four runs from 19 hits over 33 innings (1.09 ERA, 2.52 FIP). He had one start against the Mets in 2024 where he allowed two runs from two hits over 7 1/3 innings. The Mets have the following career stats against Sale:

• Pete Alonso 0-5, 3 K
• Francisco Alvarez 0-2
• Francisco Lindor 14-34, 2 2B, 2 HR, BB, 7 K
• Starling Marte 0-3, 2 K
• Jeff McNeil 3-6, 2B
• Brandon Nimmo 1-4, K
• Juan Soto 1-7, HR, 6 K
• Tyrone Taylor 0-1, BB

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Jeff McNeil. McNeil has gone 20-for-67 with six walks over his 19 games with an insane (for him) nine extra-base hits. If McNeil gets on base tonight he will extend his on-base streak to 20 games. Jeff McNeil was a question mark going into this season with Brett Baty, Luisangel Acuña, Mark Vientos and Ronny Mauricio all ready to join the team. McNeil has shown the best version of himself for about a month now and may be the x-factor the team needs in the long run.
2. The Mets are hitting bombs! Juan Soto and Tyrone Taylor each hit home runs Tuesday night. That was enough for the Mets to leapfrog the Athletics on the home run leaderboard. The Mets are sitting in sixth with 93 home runs this season, behind the Cubs (99) and ahead of the Athletics (92). The Mets finished last season 6th in home runs as well. Similar to last season, the Mets are accomplishing this with a balanced lineup, with four hitters already at double digit blasts for the season (Alonso, Lindor, Soto, and Nimmo). Brett Baty (8) is one terrific day at the plate away from joining them.
3. Blackburn’s small sample sizes. Blackburn has only tossed 9 1/3 innings, and the majority of his work came in one great start against the Dodgers. In his small body of work, he’s been having success a lot of success limiting getting hit hard. The league wide average for hard-hit% is 40.9%, with an 8.5 Barrel%. Blackburn has a 28.6% hard-hit% and hitters barreled the ball against him only 5.7% of the time.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets have an important ten game stretch starting tonight where they play the Braves, the Phillies and then the Braves again. The Mets look to shake off a rough weekend against the Rays. The Mets lost a massive lead in the first game, left runners on in the second game and just got overwhelmed on Sunday.

This is also a huge stretch of games for the Braves who are eight games below .500 and need two strong series against the Mets to restart their season. They are coming off of a winning series against the Rockies, but they lost Sunday 10-1.

David Peterson looks to right the ship tonight in Atlanta. Over 79 2/3 innings he has a 2.49 ERA, 3.03 FIP, 1.192 WHIP and a 153 ERA+ (all career bests). He’s coming off of the strongest start of his career – a complete game shutout against the Nationals, holding them to six hits and only needing 106 pitches to get it done. It was his third game in his last four where he pitched at least seven innings and his sixth in his last seven games going at least six innings. Peterson faced Atlanta once in 2024 allowing four runs over five innings while striking out seven batters. The Braves have the following career numbers against him:

• Ronald Acuña Jr. 5-18, 2B, HR, 5 BB, 6 K
• Ozzie Albies 2-12, K
• Stuart Fairchild 1-4
• Michael Harris II 1-10, 2B, 4 K
• Sean Murphy 0-4, K
• Matt Olson 4-16, 4 HR, 3 BB, 8 K
• Marcell Ozuna 3-17, 2 HR, BB, 6 K
• Austin Riley 9-23, 3 2B, 3 BB, 7 K
• Alex Verdugo 0-3, BB, 2 K
• Luke Williams 1-8, 3 K

The Mets bats will get a look at Spencer Schwellenbach, who is also making his first start since pitching a complete game. In Schwellenbach’s last start he allowed two runs from five hits while striking out nine over nine innings against the Brewers. This season he has pitched 89 2/3 innings with a 3.11 ERA, 3.18 FIP, 1.004 WHIP and a 131 ERA+. Schwellenbach this season has either been great or bad. In his last five starts, he either allowed two runs or fewer (twice) or four runs (three times).

Schwellenbach unfortunately put up tremendous numbers against the Mets in 2024, holding the Mets to two runs, scattering nine hits and a walk over 21 innings while striking out 20. The Mets have the following career stats against Schwellenbach:

• Luisangel Acuña 0-2
• Pete Alonso 2-8, 2B, BB, 2 K
• Francisco Alvarez 0-5, K
• Francisco Lindor 0-6
• Starling Marte 0-3
• Jeff McNeil 1-3, 2B
• Brandon Nimmo 0-9, 3 BB
• Tyrone Taylor 2-6, 2B, 2 K
• Luis Torrens 0-2, 2 K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. The Acuña Brothers. Last September Ronald and Luisangel did a jersey swap to celebrate both being on major league rosters at the same time. This week is the first time both brothers may play each other in an official major league game. Ronald is back from rehabbing a major knee injury and is picking up right where he left off slashing .390/.478/.701 (1.179 OPS, 226 OPS+) over his first 21 games and is worth 1.6 bWAR already. Stealing bases is the only the thing he hasn’t really tried yet, only stealing one since returning. Luisangel has made an impact with his glove and on the bases for the Mets with 11 stolen bases this season. He’s also coming off of a solid game where he went 2-for-3 at the plate with a walk.
2. The top of the Mets lineup. When the top of the lineup hits, the Mets generally do great things. Sunday was characteristically off day for the Mets one-through-four hitters, going a combined 1-for-14 with three walks (all walks from Soto). Hopefully the travel day allowed the Mets to clear their head and come back tonight renewed and refreshed.
3. Juan Soto is on pace to crush the Mets walk record. John Olerud set a franchise record for walks in 1999 with 125. He played every game that season and had 5.6 bWAR. Soto has a major league leading 60 walks right now, or about 0.845 walks per game played. Over an entire season that is about 135 walks. That wouldn’t even be a career best for Soto who had 135 walks in 2022 and 145 walks in 2021.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets look to avoid being swept this afternoon at Citi Field! Friday night the had a solid lead for about half the game until the Rays had a huge sixth inning, scoring six runs to get the lead. The Mets would end the night going 2-for-16 with RISP, leaving 12 runners on base. Saturday the Rays had a huge fourth inning, scoring five runs. The Mets bats had 11 hits, but hit into two double plays and left six runners on base. It’s been a frustrating weekend so far for the Mets, but a win can completely turn everything around.

Griffin Canning has pitched 64 1/3 innings over 13 games with a 3.22 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 1.352 WHIP and a 118 ERA+. He’s coming off of a rough start where he allowed four runs from seven hits over 5 1/3 innings against the Nationals. The start before that though was a great one where he held the Dodgers to no runs and three hits over six innings. The Rays have the following career numbers against Canning:

• Jonathan Aranda 1-3, HR, K
• José Caballero 1-3, K
• Yandy Díaz 3-11, 2 BB, 3 K
• Danny Jansen 0-3, K
• Brandon Lowe 1-3, HR, 2 BB, 2 K
• Josh Lowe 2-4, 2 K
• Curtis Mead 0-2
• Christopher Morel 1-2, K
• Taylor Walls 1-2, 2B

The Mets bats will get a look at Shane Baz today who has pitched 70 2/3 innings over 13 starts with a 4.97 ERA, 4.90 FIP, 1.344 WHIP and a 78 ERA+. Baz has allowed exactly three earned runs in three consecutive starts (5.06 ERA, 4.82 FIP). Baz has struggled this season pitching in the Rays minor league ballpark home field. Over 42 innings at home, he he has a 5.36 ERA, 1.405 WHIP. Over 28 2/3 innings on the road, he has a 4.40 ERA, 1.256 WHIP. The Mets have the following career stats against him:

• Juan Soto 3-4, 2B, HR, BB
• Tyrone Taylor 0-2, K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Brandon Nimmo. Nimmo went 3-for-4 at the plate Saturday, his third multi-hit game in his last four games played. In his last four games he has gone 7-for-16 with three home runs and five runs scored slashing .438/.471/1.000. Since June 2nd Nimmo has slashed .294/.357/.569 raising his season slash line from .231/.295/.419 to .244/.305/.448.
2. Brett Baty. Baty smashed his 8th home run of the season Saturday. He is now only one home run behind his season best of 9, which he had in 2023. For context, Baty played 108 games with 389 plate appearances in 2023. In 2025 he has played 53 games with 171 plate appearances. This is also the exact amount of plate appearances that he had in 2024. Baty had a 0.3 bWAR in 2024, compared to a 1.3 bWAR this year. One possible area for Baty’s success – his bat speed. In 2024 his bat was 73.5 mph, this season it is 75.8 mph, which is in the 95th percentile. Combined with a 14.2 Barrel% (86th percentile), he’s creating damage at the plate.
3. Huascar Brazobán. Have you’ve been to Huascar’s Baseball Savant page lately? There’s a lot of red. Brazobán hasn’t pitched since Thursday and with the off-day tomorrow there’s a good chance, regardless of game script we’ll see him this afternoon. He has been getting hitters to chase his pitches at an elite level this year (92nd percentile) and produce grounders (84th percentile) giving him one of the best fastball run values in the game (96th percentile).

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets look to start a new winning streak this afternoon at Citi Field. The Mets were cruising Friday night until a disastrous sixth inning. The Rays were able to score six runs, making the game go from a 5-1 Mets lead to a 7-5 Rays lead. The Mets were able to create multiple chances after that but couldn’t get any runs to score and ultimately lost. Today they have a much tougher challenge as they face Drew Rasmussen in the midst of a career year.

Tylor Megill has pitched 64 2/3 innings with a 3.76 ERA, 3.15 FIP, 1.299 WHIP and a 101 ERA+. He’s coming off of a solid start against the Rockies, where he was able to hold them to two runs from three hits over five innings. In the last six weeks Megill has either allowed four runs (four times) or two runs (or less) (three times). The Rays have the following career numbers against him:

• Brandon Lowe 0-2
• Josh Lowe 2-3, 2B, HR
• Christopher Morel 2-3, HR, BB
• Taylor Walls 0-2, K

Drew Rasmussen has pitched 69 innings with a 2.22 ERA, 3.24 FIP, 0.899 WHIP and a 176 ERA+. After today’s start, he will have thrown more innings in 2025 than in 2024 and 2023 combined. The Marlins were able to score two runs against him on June 8th which broke his four start streak of allowing no runs. Homeruns seem to be his only weakness, allowing six of them over a four game stretch from mid-April to mid-May, but he hasn’t allowed one since. Lindor and Soto are the only two players on the Mets who have seen him before in a major league game. They each have one plate appearance with a walk.

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Strikeouts. Strikeouts crushed the Mets Friday night. As a team they had 13 of them, with Brandon Nimmo and Ronny Mauricio each striking out three times. The strikeouts definitely contributed to the Mets going an absurd 2-for-16 with RISP and leaving 12 runners on base. Rasmussen is not necessarily a strikeout pitcher (7.7 K/9), so hopefully today is a good reset for an unusually free swinging Mets team.
2. Stolen Bases. The Rays currently lead the league with 97 stolen bases (10 more than the second best team and 19 more than the fourth best team). They tried to run on the Mets early last night but Alvarez threw Caminero out at second. The Rays would get a stolen base later in the game. If the Mets let the Rays get any momentum with stolen bases, they’ll run right over the Mets today and tomorrow.
3. How deep does Megill go? Megill has seemed to fall off this year the second time he has to face an opponent in the lineup (.274 OBP first time through, .345, .347 OBP the second and third time through). The Mets burned through three pitchers last night in the bullpen that can put up multiple innings. Buttó and Garrett both haven’t pitched since Tuesday, so its safe to assume we’ll see them at some point today.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets look to stretch their win streak to seven games as they welcome the Tampa Bay Rays to Citi Field tonight!

The Mets are rolling right now coming off of consecutive sweeps against the Rockies and Nationals. The Rays were rolling, winning six of seven games from June 3rd through June 9th before losing two games in a row to the Red Sox. Whose momentum will win out this weekend?

Clay Holmes has officially pitched a career high innings in the majors. In 2016 he pitched 136 1/3 innings for the Pittsburgh AA team (Altoona), his professional career best. Over 73 1/3 innings this season, Holmes has a 2.95 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 1.186 WHIP and a 128 ERA+. Holmes is coming off of another strong start where he held the Rockies to only one run from nine hits and no walks over six innings. The Rays have the following career numbers against Holmes:

• Jonathan Aranda 1-1, 2B, BB
• Yandy Díaz 2-9, 2 BB, 3 K
• Danny Jansen 0-2
• Brandon Lowe 1-6
• Josh Lowe 0-2, BB, 2 K
• Curtis Mead 0-1, K
• Christopher Morel 0-2
• Taylor Walls 1-4, K

Taj Bradley has pitched 74 2/3 innings this season with a 4.58 ERA, 4.38 FIP, 1.246 WHIP and an 85 ERA+. June has been interesting for Taj – he’s had his worst start and best start of the season. He started June by tossing seven innings, allowing one unearned run while striking out 10 batters. The following start he allowed seven run from six hits and two walks over four innings. The Mets have the following career stats against Taj:

• Pete Alonso 1-1, HR, BB
• Brett Baty 0-2
• Francisco Lindor 0-2, BB
• Jeff McNeil 1-2, K
• Brandon Nimmo 0-3, K
• Juan Soto 0-6

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Keeping the ball in the yard. Holmes has allowed quite a few home runs recently. Hitters have eight on the season against Holmes, and they all have happened from May 9th on. The Rays are tied for 15th in the majors for home runs, so they aren’t the most dangerous team that Holmes has faced this season.
2. Stolen Bases. Juan Soto stole his 8th base of the season Thursday which is notable because he only stole seven bases in 2024. The Mets now have 58 stolen bases on the season, good for 10th in the league. This is a notable shift for the Mets who finished 16th in stolen bases in 2024. Across the diamond, stolen bases are the Rays thing. They lead the majors with 96, 10 more than the Brewers who are in second and 21 ahead of the Pirates/Mariners who are tied for fourth.
3. Brandon Nimmo is getting hot. Nimmo went 2-for-4 Thursday with a home run. It was his third home run over his last two games and his second consecutive game with multiple hits. Nimmo and Soto heating up at the same time is dramatically increasing the Mets run scoring abilities.

Let’s Go Mets!