213 Miles From Shea

The Mets won a series! The Mets won a series!

After losing 14 of 17 games, the Mets have now won two games in row and are building a bit of momentum heading into this weekend’s series against the Yankees. The Yankees are also in a bit of a slump. They just got swept by the Blue Jays who took over first place from the Yankees in the process.

The Mets rotation though is in shambles. The Mets announced Friday that Paul Blackburn was headed to the IL with a shoulder injury. Over the last few weeks Kodai Senga, Tylor Megill, Griffin Canning and Paul Blackburn have all landed on the injured list leaving the Mets in a bit of a pickle this weekend.

Recently recalled Justin Hagenman will get the bulk of the work today. He’s pitched two games for the Mets (April and June) totaling six innings allowing only one run from five hits while striking out five batters. The success in the majors has not been replicated consistently in Syracuse where he has a 6.21 ERA over 42 innings. Since his last outing in June with the Mets he has allowed six runs over 8 2/3 innings in Syracuse. When pushed, Hagenman can go 70-80 pitches.

The Mets will face off against former Met Marcus Stroman this afternoon. Stroman has made four starts this season totaling 14 1/3 innings with a 8.16 ERA, 6.58 FIP, 1.674 WHIP and a 50 ERA+. His season got off to a rough start, posting an 11.57 ERA over three starts from the end of March to mid-April. A knee injury sidelined him for a few months and he came back strong in his last start allowing only one run over five innings against the Athletics. The Mets have the following career numbers against Stroman:

• Pete Alonso 2-5, 2B
• Brett Baty 0-3
• Travis Jankowski 3-11, 2B, 5 K
• Francisco Lindor 6-27, 2B, 2 BB, 6 K
• Starling Marte 1-8, BB
• Jeff McNeil 0-5
• Brandon Nimmo 1-5, 3 BB, 2 K
• Juan Soto 3-10, 2B, HR, 4 BB, 2 K
• Tyrone Taylor 1-2, 2B

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Brandon Nimmo. From June 22nd to July 1st Nimmo played in nine games where he hit well (9-for-33, .273/.314/.303) but only had one extra base hit. In his last two games he has gone 3-for-9 with two home runs (including a grand slam Wednesday night). The offense right now overall is still struggling to score run. A Nimmo hot streak can go a long way to relieve this tired pitching staff.
2. Juan Soto. Luckily for Mets fans all three games this weekend against the Yankees are being broadcasted on SNY. During the nationally televised games during the last subway series, we got our fill of Juan Soto talk. During that series Soto went 2-for-10 with four walks (.357 OBP). Over his last 31 games Soto is hitting .320/.474/.699 with 12 home runs and 29 walks – earning player of the month honors for June!
3. Devin Williams. Williams last pitched on July 2nd where he allowed two runs and got tagged for the loss in an 11-9 games with the Blue Jays. Williams has had an up and down season so far but is coming off of a tremendous month of June where he allowed only one run over 9 2/3 innings while striking out 12. He pitched two scoreless innings against the Mets earlier this season, his first time facing the Mets since Pete Alonso hit a go-ahead home run against him.

Let’s Go Mets!

What a difference a few hours make! Everything felt bleak after the first game yesterday where the Brewers scored five runs in the sixth inning, putting the game out of reach for the Mets. It was the 14th loss in the last 17 games for the Mets. Pure free-fall.

In the nightcap, a bullpen game of all things, the Mets got out to an early lead. In the second inning, against an almost unhittable prospect, the Mets had a season saving rally (we are leaning into hyperbole today folks!). With two outs the Mets got a walk, walk, single. Brandon Nimmo smashed a grand slam and Francisco Lindor followed up with a solo shot. Pure elation!

Now the Mets look to win a series at Citi Field!

The Mets need a classic, solid outing from David Peterson tonight. Over 95 1/3 innings (16 starts), Peterson has a 3.30 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 1.280 WHIP and a 115 ERA+. June was not kind to Peterson who had a 4.55 ERA, 3.44 FIP over 31 2/3 innings. These numbers include his masterful complete game shutout. Things have fallen apart in each of his last two starts allowing a combined 10 runs from 13 hits over 8 2/3 innings. Peterson last faced the Brewers in relief in the postseason, recording a save in a scoreless inning of work. The Brewers have the following career numbers against Peterson:

• Jake Bauers 0-3, K
• Jackson Chourio 1-3, K
• Isaac Collins 0-3, 2 K
• William Contreras 2-7, BB, K
• Sal Frelick 1-1
• Eric Haase 0-3, 2 K
• Rhys Hoskins 7-16, 3 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 4 K
• Andruw Monasterio 1-2
• Joey Ortiz 0-3, K
• Brice Turang 0-4, K
• Christian Yelich 1-8, 2 BB, 4 K

The Mets bats will face a friend tonight in Jose Quintana. In two seasons with the Mets, Quintana made 44 starts totaling 246 innings with a 3.70 ERA, 4.24 FIP, 1.268 WHIP and a 107 ERA+. He was on fire for the Mets down the stretch last season allowing two runs, one earned, over a five game stretch (32 innings) that propelled the Mets into the postseason. He’s off to a good start with the Brewers, posting a 3.30 ERA, 4.42 FIP, 1.417 WHIP and a 121 ERA+ over 60 innings. The Mets have the following career stats against Quintana:

• Pete Alonso 1-3, HR
• Travis Jankowski 1-2, K
• Francisco Lindor 3-22, 2B, 2 BB, 6 K
• Starling Marte 5-24, 2B, BB, 8 K
• Jeff McNeil 2-3, 2B
• Brandon Nimmo 1-3, 2B, 2 K
• Juan Soto 1-10, 2 BB, 2 K
• Tyrone Taylor 2-4, 2B, 2 K
• Luis Torrens 0-3, K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Francisco Lindor. When Lindor is good, the Mets are good. When Lindor struggles, the Mets struggle. Lindor was named as an All-Star before Wednesday night’s game, his first All-Star game as a Met (which is wild). He also had a terrific game at the plate going 3-for-4 with a homerun a double and three RBI. Each RBI came in a different at bat, furthering the Mets lead.
2. How deep can David Peterson go? The Mets used nine different pitchers on Wednesday. Unless the Mets make a roster move, the only member of the Mets bullpen who didn’t pitch on Wednesday was José Buttó. Before his recent rough patch, Peterson was one of the more consistent pitchers on the Mets roster. He pitched at least six innings in seven of eight starts between May 6th and June 17th.
3. Jeff McNeil. Jeff McNeil had a solid day at the plate Wednesday night going 2-for-4. This was McNeil’s third game with two hits in his last six games played. His OBP is up to .343 which is the highest it has been since 2022 (when he led the league in batting average). He also has a 134 OPS+, which is the highest it has been since 2022 (140).

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets have a tough challenge in the nightcap game tonight facing Jacob Misiorowski. The top 100 prospect (#44 Baseball America, #65 Baseball Prospectus, #100 MLB Pipeline) has dominated opponents so far in his major league career. He will face a Mets lineup that already played a full game today. Across the diamond the Mets send will send out their own prospect in Blade Tidwell, hoping that he rebounds against a more tired Brewers roster. It’s more Mets baseball on Wednesday evening, and hopefully it’s better than what we saw earlier today!

Huascar Brazobán will open the game and will be followed by Blade Tidwell who is in line to do the bulk of the work today. Over 10 2/3 innings this season, he has allowed 12 runs from 18 hits and eight walks while striking out seven. His first start of the season was terrible, allowing six runs over 3 2/3 innings. He did better in his second start allowing only two runs over 3 2/3 innings. The numbers in his last outing are a bit skewed. He allowed four runs over 3 1/3 innings, but the Mets kept him in a game to save a bullpen after a bad start by David Peterson.

Jacob Misiorowski has allowed only two runs over his first three starts (16 innings) this season while striking out 19 batters. He’s coming off of a career high eight strikeouts against the Pirates over five innings, holding the Pirates to only two hits. The Cardinals didn’t score against Jacob, but showed that patience can pay off (four walks), something that will be tough for the Mets in the second game of a doubleheader. Jacob leans on a fastball over half of the time that sits right around 100 mph. He mixes in a slider that sits in the mid-90’s, a high 80’s curveball and a low-90’s changeup.

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Huascar Brazobán. Over Brazobán had a 1.30 ERA, 3.46 FIP over his first 26 games and 34 2/3 innings while striking out 34 batters this season. Since June 3rd he has pitched in eight games totaling 7 2/3 innings where he allowed 14 runs, 13 earned, from eight hits and 10 walks. He’s been particularly off in his last two games recording only two outs while allowing seven runs. Hopefully getting the start today gets him back on track.
2. The big, deflating inning. The Mets have now lost 14 of their last 17 games and a defining characteristic in many of these games is one inning where everything falls apart and makes a comeback seem impossible. Earlier this afternoon it was the sixth inning where the Mets allowed five runs. Reed Garrett came in and promptly gave up the tying run before falling apart and allowing a grand slam. There are a lot of problems with the offense right now, but they also need a chance.
3. In search of the big, run scoring inning. On the other side of the coin, the Mets bats still haven’t had a massive inning yet. A couple of crooked number innings will go a long way in taking off the need to perfect while pitching. A big inning will help everyone in slumps.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets started off June hot but finished spiraling, losing 12 of their last 15 games. The last three games have been particularly brutal, being clobbered by the Pirates three days in a row despite having tons of runners on base. Hopefully the Mets were able to use the off day to clear their heads and get back to work this afternoon against the Brewers.

Last night’s game got washed out – so the Mets and Brewers will play two games today! The Mets are extra rested right now, so they’re in a good position today to handle the extra load. This does cause some problems for the Mets rotation down the road this weekend that will have to be straightened out. A double win today can go a long way for the Mets to flip the momentum-laden script!

Clay Holmes looks to help the Mets right the ship tonight. Over 16 starts and 88 innings Holmes has a 2.97 ERA, 4.19 FIP, 1.239 WHIP and a 128 ERA+. He’s coming off of a strong start against the Braves where he held them to one run over five innings, his third start in his last four where he has allowed only one run. The Brewers have the following career numbers against Holmes:

• William Contreras 0-4, 2 K
• Sal Frelick 0-1
• Rhys Hoskins 0-1
• Christian Yelich 3-5, 2 2B, 2 BB

The Mets bats will get a look at Freddy Peralta, who they haven’t seen since last October. Peralta started his 2024 season holding the Mets to only one run over six innings. In the postseason the Mets tagged Peralta for three runs over four innings and then Peralta pitched a clean inning of relief against the Mets. This season Peralta has pitched 93 innings over 17 games with a 2.90 ERA, 3.92 FIP, 1.13 WHIP and a 138 ERA+. The Mets have the following career stats against him:

• Pete Alonso 1-7, 2B, 2 BB, K
• Brett Baty 0-2, K
• Travis Jankowski 2-3
• Francisco Lindor 1-8, HR, 3 BB, 4 K
• Starling Marte 3-13, 3B, HR, K
• Jeff McNeil 0-6, 2 K
• Brandon Nimmo 0-10, BB, 4 K
• Juan Soto 1-10, HR, 4 BB, K
• Tyrone Taylor 0-2, K
• Mark Vientos 1-2, K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Emotions. The Mets and Rhys Hoskins got into during the first series of the season back in 2024. The last time these two teams met, Pete Alonso hit a go-ahead three-run homer in the ninth inning to finally put the Mets ahead in a do-or-die game three and send the Mets to the next round of the postseason. On the other hand, the Mets right now are just fighting their own emotions, trying to stop the spiral they’ve been on. It’s possible the Brewers and Mets may be on two completely different wavelengths today in terms of emotions to each other and themselves.
2. Francisco Lindor. The Mets, now more than ever, need their leader right now. Lindor had a three game stretch last week where he went 6-for-13 with a double and two home runs. It seemed like he was started to break out of his funk. Since then he has gone 2-for-25 with a double a walk (.080/.111/.120). As Lindor goes, so do the Mets!
3. Mark Vientos. It’s been a tough return to the Mets for Mark Vientos who has gone 1-for-13 in his last three games with five strikeouts. Vientos has been much better at home than the road this season. On the road he is squeaking by slashing .200/.260/.287. At home he is hitting .247/.319/.459. Let’s hope the home version of Mark Vientos comes through today!

Let’s Go Mets!

The 2024 Mets went on quite the run after a closed door team meeting. Will history repeat itself?

After Saturday’s loss the Mets held a players only meeting. The team has spin spiraling of late, losing 12 of their last 15 games. Saturday’s loss featured two things that have become common during the losing streak: leaving tons of runners on base, and one big inning from the opposing team that puts the game out of reach. Hopefully they can get back on the right path today!

The Mets rotation has been remade over the last couple of weeks and they need Frankie Montas to build off of his successful Mets debut last week. In his first start against the Braves Montas tossed five scoreless innings allowing three hits and three walks while striking out five. You would think as a member of the Reds and Brewers last season, Montas would have faced the Pirates – but he didn’t! The Pirates have the following, limited, numbers against Montas:

• Adam Frazier 3-8, 2B
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa 4-13, BB, 2 K
• Andrew McCutchen 0-1, BB
• Tommy Pham 2-9, HR, 4 K

The Mets bats will get a look at Mike Burrows this afternoon. Over seven games, six starts (30 1/3 innings), Burrows has a 4.45 ERA, 4.76 FIP, 1.319 WHIP and a 96 ERA+. Burrows had a rough two starts to the season in late May, allowing nine runs over 8 1/3 innings. He’s been a lot more effective in May allowing seven runs over 22 innings while striking out 25 batters (2.86 ERA, 3.40 FIP). The only hitter on the Mets who has seen Burrows in a game is Juan Soto (0-1, BB).

Three Things To Watch For:

1. How long can Burrows pitch? Burrows longest outing this season was 5 1/3 innings, which he has done twice this year. The most pitches he has tossed in a game is 88 and has only pitched above 80 pitches twice over seven games. He’s also off schedule. Burrows made a start on 6/20 and then had come in as long relief for Paul Skenes on 6/25. He ended up pitching 2 1/3 innings of shut-out ball, tossing 31 pitches. The Pirates ended up knocking Burrows back a day to get more rest. Hopefully the Mets can take advantage of Burrows being out of sync.
2. Frankie Montas pitch selection. Let’s go ahead and read too much into Montas’ first start last week. Montas used his four seamer 33.8% of the time, which was nearly identical to the 33% of the time he used it in 2024. Montas used his sinker 28.8% of the time in his debut, which was about 50% more than the 19.3% of the time he used it in 2024. The Brave also got two of their three hits against his sinker. As Montas gets more innings, let’s see if the Mets keep asking him to use his sinker more than last year.
3. Hitting with RISP. The Mets were doing well hitting with runners in scoring position in the two games they won against the Braves earlier in the week. It’s been a disaster in Pittsburgh though. Over the last two games the Mets have gone 2-for-17 leaving 18 runners on base. It’s been comically bad so far this series.

Let’s Go Mets!

Two steps forward, one step back for the Mets right now.

Going into Friday’s game, the Mets were coming off two consecutive wins against the Braves and getting Mark Vientos back from the injured list. Then the Mets struggled in just about everyway way Friday night. They only scored one run on a solo shot by Juan Soto while going 0-for-9 with runners in scoring position. David Peterson struggled for the first time in a long time, and Tidwell allowed too many runs behind him. The only silver lining was that Blade Tidwell pitched 3 1/3 innings, saving the bullpen for the rest of the weekend.

That was yesterday and today is a new day to get back in the win column!

The Mets need Paul Blackburn more than ever now with the news on Friday that Griffin Canning ruptured his achilles. Blackburn has pitched 17 2/3 innings with a 6.62 ERA, 4.44 FIP, 1.755 WHIP and a 58 ERA+. He allowed three runs from six hits and three walks over 4 2/3 innings in his last start. He seemed better, getting five strikeouts (a season high) and didn’t allow four runs (we have a different bar for Blackburn) and hopefully that gives him something to build on tonight. There are only two players on the Pirates who have seen Blackburn in a major league game:

• Adam Frazier 1-7, 2B, 2 K
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa 1-2

Bailey Falter has pitched 85 1/3 innings over 16 starts with a 3.59 ERA, 4.38 FIP, 1.184 WHIP and a 119 ERA+. Falter was dominant in May allowing only four runs over 35 2/3 innings (0.76 ERA), including four starts where he allowed no runs. June has been a different story. He’s allowed 11 runs over 19 1/3 innings from 21 hits and 9 walks (5.12 ERA, 5.46 FIP). He faced the Mets back in May. He held the Mets scoreless but allowed three hits and five walks in just 3 2/3 innings. The Mets have the following career stats against Falter:

• Pete Alonso 1-10, HR, 2 BB, 2 K
• Brett Baty 0-2
• Francisco Lindor 3-10, 5 BB, K
• Starling Marte 2-9, HR, BB, 2 K
• Jeff McNeil 1-8, 2 K
• Brandon Nimmo 6-14, HR, BB, 4 K
• Juan Soto 3-9
• Tyrone Taylor 3-9, 2B, 2 K
• Luis Torrens 2-5, K
• Mark Vientos 1-5, K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Juan Soto. The Mets bats may be collectively struggling, but don’t blame Juan Soto. Over his last seven games he has gone 9-for-22 with six home runs, a stolen base and five walks (.409/.519/1.227). He is now on track to hit a similar amount of home runs as last year. He’s still leading the league in walks and he’s still on track to smash his career best for stolen bases (currently has 9, career best is 12).
2. Brett Baty. You know who has a five game hitting streak? Brett Baty. Over the last five games he has gone 8-for-18 at the plate with three games where he has collected two hits. Friday night Baty went 2-for-4 with two doubles. To put this in perspective, over the first 16 games in June, Baty only had six hits in 58 trips to the plate.
3. The Bullpen. Blade Tidwell saved the bullpen that had to cover 6 1/3 innings on Thursday after Canning’s injury. Reed Garrett and Huascar Brazobán haven’t pitched since Tuesday and will probably first up for the Mets this afternoon.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets head into Pittsburgh tonight battered, but on a two game winning streak. Griffin Canning was cruising Thursday night until he had what looked like purely from his reaction, a serious ankle injury. It is the third significant injury to a starting pitcher on the Mets in the last two weeks. The bullpen picked up the game for him and allowed two hits and nothing else over 6 1/3 innings to lock down a shutout victory against the Braves.

Heading into play today the Mets are back in first place, let’s keep building momentum to close out the month of June!

David Peterson has pitched 90 2/3 innings over 15 starts for the Mets with a 2.98 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 1.235 WHIP and a 127 ERA+. He’s coming off of a rough start against the Phillies in Philly where he allowed five runs over four innings, his shortest start of the season. In his three previous starts he allowed only three runs over 23 innings, tossing at minimum seven innings per start. Peterson faced the Pirates earlier this season where he allowed two runs over six innings from five hits and three walks. The Pirates have the following career numbers against him:

• Joey Bart 1-7, 3 BB, 3 K
• Alexander Canario 0-3
• Oneil Cruz 1-3, HR, 2 K
• Henry Davis 0-4, K
• Nick Gonzalez 1-2, 2B
• Ke’Bryan Hayes 2-7, BB, K
• Spencer Horwitz 1-2, BB
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2-3, HR
• Andrew McCutchen 2-16, HR, 5 BB, 5 K
• Rommy Pham 0-2, K
• Bryan Reynolds 2-10, 3 K
• Jared Triolo 1-3, 2B

The Mets bats will get another look at Mitch Keller tonight. Keller has pitched 94 innings with a 4.02 ERA, 3.24 FIP, 1.223 WHIP and 104 ERA+ and somehow has managed to lose (thanks to the Pirates run scoring abilities) a league leading 10 games. He hasn’t been as sharp in his last five games allowing 17 runs, 16 earned over 30 innings (4.80 ERA, 3.44 FIP). Keller was great in his one start against the Mets this year where he allowed only two runs over seven innings while striking out eight. He took the loss in this game because the Pirates offense was only able to score one run. The Mets have the following career stats against Keller:

• Pete Alonso 0-12, 3 K
• Brett Baty 2-5, HR, BB
• Travis Jankowski 1-3, 2B
• Francisco Lindor 2-13, 5 BB, 6 K
• Starling Marte 0-2, K
• Jeff McNeil 2-15, HR, 2 K
• Brandon Nimmo 4-15, 2B, 4 K
• Juan Soto 4-10, 2B, 2 BB, K
• Tyrone Taylor 0-7, 2 K
• Luis Torrens 0-3, K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Mark Vientos. Mark Vientos comes back to the Mets tonight! Vientos has been out since June 3rd with a hamstring injury. His first five rehab games were rough at the plate, going 2-for-17 with a double and no walks. In his last two games he has gone 2-for-6 at the plate with a double and three walks.
2. Ronny Mauricio. The Mets sent Jared Young down to make room for Mark Vientos, meaning that Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and Ronny Mauricio will all be on the Mets roster at the same time. Ronny currently has a three game hitting streak where he has gone 5-for-12 at the plate with a double and a home run. If he stays up with the Mets, he’s going to need consistent at bats so we’ll see how the Mets start to juggle all three infielders on the roster at the same time.
3. Pete Alonso. Pete Alonso is coming off of a big night where he went 3-for-4 with a double, it was his third consecutive game with at least one hit after going 0-for-8 in the two games before this streak. His numbers against Keller leave something to be desired (0-for-12, 3 K). The Mets offense earlier this season was running through Pete Alonso. Today would be an excellent day to finally hit against Mitch Keller and keep the momentum from the last couple of days going.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets finally defeated the Braves in 2025! The Mets had a huge win Wednesday night finally beating the Braves and setting up the possibility to split the four game series this week. It’s been a rough two weeks for the Mets and getting two consecutive wins will go a long way mentally to stop the spiral and resume the dominance from earlier this month.

Griffin Canning has pitched 73 2/3 innings this season with a 3.91 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 1.412 WHIP and a 98 ERA+. He’s in the midst of a tough stretch allowing at least four runs in each of his last three starts (14 runs, 13 earned over 14 2/3 innings, 7.98 ERA, 5.32 FIP). Canning missed the Braves last week. He had a tough start against them in 2024 allowing seven runs from eight hits and two homers over 4 1/3 innings. The Braves have the following numbers against Canning:

• Nick Allen 1-2, K
• Michael Harris II 3-3, 2B
• Sean Murphy 1-4, K
• Matt Olson 4-18, 2B, 2 HR, BB, 7 K
• Marcell Ozuna 4-5, 2 HR, BB
• Austin Riley 1-3
• Alex Verdugo 1-11, 2 K

Grant Holmes is having a solid second season in the majors. Over 16 games, 15 starts he has pitched 85 innings with a 3.71 ERA, 4.42 FIP, 1.224 WHIP and a 111 ERA+. He’s coming off a great start where he held the Marlins scoreless over 5 2/3 innings. Before that he allowed exactly three runs in each of four consecutive starts (20 2/3 innings, 4.79 ERA, 3.32 FIP). Holmes made one start against the Mets last year, but it was the second game in the season-ending double header right after the Mets clinched a wild card spot (4 IP, H, K). The Mets have the following career stats against Holmes:

• Pete Alonso 1-2, K
• Starling Marte 0-1, BB, K
• Brandon Nimmo 0-2, 2 K
• Juan Soto 0-1
• Tyrone Taylor 0-1
• Luis Torrens 0-1, K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Juan Soto. Soto is having a June to remember, He’s hit five home runs in his last five games (7-for-17, 6 R, 5 HR, SB, 3 BB, 1.794 OPS). He’s now has a 3.5 bWAR and a 157 OPS+. If the season ended today, that would be his fourth best OPS+ for a season. It’s Juan Soto summer now and hopefully the Mets can ride the wave to split this series.
2. Hitting with RISP. The Mets have actually started to hit with RISP over the last two games going 7-for-13. While they still lost on Wednesday, this is a positive development for the Mets. They are now both getting runners into scoring position, and getting hits once they’re there. Throughout the current two week spiral, the Mets were struggling just to get runners on!
3. Sliders vs Four Seamers. The Mets already had to deal with Spencer Strider’s slider this week, now they need to handle Grant Holmes’ slider, which hitters have a .138 BA, .190 xBA against. It’s part of the reason why Holmes is in the 99th percentile for breaking ball run value. His four-seamer, which he uses 35.8% of the time (almost the same amount of time as his slider) is another story. Hitters are currently smashing his four seamer with a .352 BA, .325 xBA and .750 SLG. It’s currently in the second percentile for fastball run value.

Let’s Go Mets!

Tuesday night was another tough night for the Mets. They got a few hits with RISP early and took a 3-0 lead. Then the bullpen just imploded and the Braves scored seven runs, eventually winning the game 7-4. Super frustrating but today is another day and the Mets turn to Clay Holmes to right the ship.

Clay Holmes has pitched 83 innings this season with a 3.04 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 1.229 WHIP and a 125 ERA+. His last start against the Braves wasn’t great, where he allowed three runs from four hits and six walks over 4 2/3 innings, reaching 104 pitches early. It was the most pitches he has tossed in a game this season and by far the most amount of walks. In his two starts before that he allowed only two runs from 12 hits over 11 innings. The Braves have the following career numbers against Holmes:

• Ronald Acuña Jr. 0-3, 2 BB
• Ozzie Albies 2-4, 2B, BB, K
• Nick Allen 1-2, 2B, K
• Drake Baldwin 0-1, 2 BB
• Stuart Fairchild 0-1, 2 BB
• Michael Harris II 0-3
• Sean Murphy 0-2, 2 K
• Matt Olson 0-1, 2 BB
• Marcell Ozuna 1-5, BB, 2 K
• Austin Riley 1-6, 2 K
• Alex Verdugo 3-8, 4 BB, 2 K

The Mets bats will get a look at rookie Didier Fuentes who is coming off of his first career start against the Marlins last week. In that game he allowed four runs from six hits and a walk over five innings. In 2024 Fuentes pitched 75 2/3 innings in single A ball with a 2.74 ERA, 1.018 WHIP. This season he pitched 39 1/3 innings over nine starts and across three levels of minor league ball with a 4.81 ERA and a 1.119 WHIP.

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Strikeouts. Mets hitters have been striking out at an increased rate over the last two weeks while the team has been spiraling. Part of it has been the level of starting pitching the Mets have been facing recently. Tuesday night the Mets struck out 14 times with six hitters striking out two times. Somehow the Mets still did well with RISP (4-for-7, six LOB). The Mets are facing a young prospect tonight with a live fastball, don’t make it easier for him tonight!
2. Fuentes pitch selection. Fuentes, a top-10 prospect for the Braves, has a mid-to-high 90’s fastball, high-80’s splitter, low-80’s sweeper and a high-70’s curveball. In his first start he leaned on his fastball nearly 60% of the time, and hitters had an expected batting average of .401 against it. Hitters struggled with his sweeper. Fuentes used his sweeper 18 times and no one got a hit against it (.198 xBA).
3. Groundball King. Clay Holmes gets hitters to produce groundballs 53.8% of the time (league average 42.6%). He’s in the 90th percentile according to Baseball Savant and it is the only under-the-hood metric that Holmes is doing well in right now. He’s been able to turn the groundball into a serious weapon. After his last start, he needs a night with a lot of grounders and quick innings.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets look to even the series with the Braves tonight after dropping the first game 3-2. The Braves scored three runs early and that was all they needed as they were able to keep the Mets from scoring for the vast majority of the game. The Mets have now lost nine of their last 10 games and are 1.5 games out of first place. They still are 13 games above .500 though.

Frankie Montas finally makes his Mets debut tonight! The righty had a high-grade right lat strain in spring training. In 30 starts last season he pitched 150 2/3 innings with a 4.84 ERA, 4.71 FIP, 1.367 WHIP and a 90 ERA+. His rehab assignment with the Mets has been rough allowing 25 runs from 30 hits and 10 walks in just 18 2/3 innings. There was a reason though why Stearns rushed to get him this off-season and Montas is healthy at a time where the Mets desperately need him. The Braves have the following career numbers against him:

• Sean Murphy 2-3
• Matt Olson 2-4, BB
• Marcell Ozuna 1-5
• Austin Riley 1-2, HR, K
• Alex Verdugo 6-11, 3 2B, BB
• Eli White 0-4, K

What a week for Mets hitters. Spencer Schwellenbach, Spencer Strider, Chris Sale, Zack Wheeler, Spencer Schwenllenbach again and finally Spencer Strider again. Over seven starts (37 innings) Strider has a 3.89 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 1.135 WHIP and a 106 ERA+. He’s hit his groove in his last two starts allowing only one run from eight hits and two walks over 12 innings while striking out 21 batters. This includes six innings of one run ball against the Mets who have the following career stats against him:

• Pete Alonso 3-15, 2B, HR, 2 BB, 8 K
• Brett Baty 2-4, K
• Travis Jankowski 0-2
• Francisco Lindor 6-18, 3B, 3 BB, 2 K
• Starling Marte 2-10, 2 BB, 3 K
• Ronny Mauricio 1-2, K
• Jeff McNeil 3-16, 2B, 4 K
• Brandon Nimmo 9-19, 2 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 4 K
• Juan Soto 3-10, 3 BB
• Tyrone Taylor 1-2, K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Francisco Lindor. Lindor now has three consecutive games with two hits. After going hitless for five straight games Lindor has bounced back, collecting hits in bunches. He has gone 6-for-13 with a double and two home runs over his last three games. When we highlighted him yesterday, we talked about how no one is actually driving Lindor in, and that continued last night. Don’t waste Lindor’s hot streak!
2. The Mets Pitching Lab. We’ve seen time and time again the Mets pitching lab remake pitchers this season. In 2024 Montas threw a mid-90’s four seamer 33% of the time, a mid-90’s sinker (19.3%), low-90’s cutter (18.7%), mid-80’s splitter (18.3%) and a mid-80’s slider (10.7%). His best pitch was his splitter – opponents had a .242 xwOBA against it. Let’s see how the Mets are advising him to switch up his pitch mix tonight!
3. Adjustments. The Mets faced Strider less than a week ago and the Mets got some solid hits off of Strider, they just got a bit unlucky. For example, Lindor had 108.8 mph lineout with an xBA of .760 and a 97.5 mph lineout. Alonso had a 112.1 mph groundout that had an xBA of .400. He also had a single that went 112.5 mph off the bat. How do the Mets adjust to Strider? How does Strider adjust to Mets? Strider used his slider 41% of the time which was an increase compared to his season as a whole, and he barely showed the Mets his changeup and curveball. He normally rarely uses them (less than 10% combined) but last week he used them only 5% of the time.

Let’s Go Mets!