213 Miles From Shea

The Mets dropped the last game of the series against the Cardinals on Sunday and the Mets were deprived of a chance to get back on the winning track last night thanks to snow earlier in the day. The question tonight is about rain, the Mets should be able to get the game in with at most a delay, so hopefully the manager of the Phillies will be able to see the bullpen and call on a pitcher tonight who has actually warmed up.

It’s a big day in Mets land! Harvey Day! Will the Mets get 2017 Harvey? 2016? 2015? Last year Harvey went 5-7 over 19 games and 18 starts tossing 92.2 innings with a 6.70 ERA, 6.37 FIP, 1.694 WHIP and 63 ERA+. In the exact same amount of innings in 2016 Harvey had a 4.86 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 1.468 WHIP and 83 ERA+. Harvey made two starts against the Phillies last year. His first one, the second start of the season, he allowed 2 runs over 5.2 innings and 6 K’s and was taken out of the game early for an injury concern (the Mets were destroying the ball offensively that night). His second start against the Phillies was his last start of the season where he allowed 4 runs on 4.0 innings from 7 hits and 3 walks. The Phillies have the following numbers against him:

• Herrera 4-16, HR, 6 K
• Hernandez 4-11, 2 BB
• Franco 3-8, 2 HR
• Santana 0-1, 2 BB
• Alfaro 1-1, 2B
• Hoskins 1-2

The Mets bats will see Ben Lively’s first start of 2018 coming off or a rookie year where he went 4-7 over 15 games and 88.2 innings with a 4.26 ERA, 4.97 FIP, 1.286 WHIP and 99 ERA+. Even though he only made 15 starts, he faced the Mets 3 times (or 20% of his starts) and held the Mets to only 5 runs from 15 hits and 7 walks over 19.1 innings which comes out to a 2.33 ERA and 1.138 WHIP. The Mets have the following numbers against Lively:

• Reyes 2-9, 3B, HR, BB
• Carbera 3-9, 2B
• d’Arnaud 3-9, 2B
• Nimmo 0-5, BB
• Lagares 2-4, 2B
• Bruce 0-2
• Cespedes 0-3
• Flores 0-3
• Rosario 0-2

Who’s Hotter than the new Nashville Hot Chicken Sandwich available on the Promenade?
Lagares has 5 hits in the last two days and he wasn’t even supposed to play yesterday but Nimmo was sick and Juan stepped up.

Who’s Colder than a Mets fan staring at the game postponing snow yesterday?
The Mets on Sundays. Last year they just could not get it done on Sundays and that fate leaked into 2018.

Let’s Go Mets!

Before being injured in 2013, Matt Harvey was the league leader in FIP at 2.01. He was incredible in 2015 coming off his first major injury. Then 2016 and 2017 happened. Last year was a disaster for Harvey but as he goes into a walk year, Harvey has a chance to bounce back while the expectations for him are low.

What do the computers think he’ll do?

Well, that’s a dramatic improvement. it’s not 2012-2015 Harvey, but it’s so much better than 2017 Harvey. The computers see him regressing to mean which in this case, regression doesn’t carry the same connotation that it normaly does. Computers see him losing almost 0.3 points off his WHIP which would also be fantastic.

In 2015, if you showed me that average stat line for Harvey, I would have responded with “that’s garabage!”. Or, “that’s worse than the EPA’s current attempt at cleaning up the Passaic River!”. But after last year, a Harvey with a 4.65 ERA, 4.5 FIP and 1.4 WHIP would dramatically help the Mets. My gut says, because my gut is a hopeless optimist, that Harvey will be better than this average stat line. I have no evidence to back this up outside of desire to see Harvey fly high in what could easily be his last season as a Met.

Yesterday just wasn’t the day for the Mets as they dropped the last game of the series to the Cardinals. Today, the Mets look to get back in the win column against the Phillies as the Mets open their first series against an NL East team. The snow should be long gone by game time so hopefully the manager of the Phillies will be able to see the bullpen and call on a pitcher tonight who has actually warmed up.

It’s a big day in Mets land! Harvey Day! Will the Mets get 2017 Harvey? 2016? 2015? Last year Harvey went 5-7 over 19 games and 18 starts tossing 92.2 innings with a 6.70 ERA, 6.37 FIP, 1.694 WHIP and 63 ERA+. In the exact same amount of innings in 2016 Harvey had a 4.86 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 1.468 WHIP and 83 ERA+. Harvey made two starts against the Phillies last year. His first one, the second start of the season, he allowed 2 runs over 5.2 innings and 6 K’s and was taken out of the game early for an injury concern (the Mets were destroying the ball offensively that night). His second start against the Phillies was his last start of the season where he allowed 4 runs on 4.0 innings from 7 hits and 3 walks. The Phillies have the following numbers against him:

• Herrera 4-16, HR, 6 K
• Hernandez 4-11, 2 BB
• Franco 3-8, 2 HR
• Santana 0-1, 2 BB
• Alfaro 1-1, 2B
• Hoskins 1-2

The Mets bats will see Ben Lively’s first start of 2018 coming off or a rookie year where he went 4-7 over 15 games and 88.2 innings with a 4.26 ERA, 4.97 FIP, 1.286 WHIP and 99 ERA+. Even though he only made 15 starts, he faced the Mets 3 times (or 20% of his starts) and held the Mets to only 5 runs from 15 hits and 7 walks over 19.1 innings which comes out to a 2.33 ERA and 1.138 WHIP. The Mets have the following numbers against Lively:

• Reyes 2-9, 3B, HR, BB
• Carbera 3-9, 2B
• d’Arnaud 3-9, 2B
• Nimmo 0-5, BB
• Lagares 2-4, 2B
• Bruce 0-2
• Cespedes 0-3
• Flores 0-3
• Rosario 0-2

Who’s Hotter than the new Nashville Hot Chicken Sandwich available on the Promenade?
Lagares has 5 hits in the last two days and he wasn’t even supposed to play yesterday but Nimmo was sick and Juan stepped up.

Who’s Colder than a Yankee fan at today’s afternoon Opening Day in the snow?
The Mets on Sundays. Last year they just could not get it done on Sundays and that fate leaked into 2018.

Let’s Go Mets!

Bring your brooms to Citi Field as the Mets go for a sweep to close out their first series of 2018! Yesterday the Mets fired on all cylinders for a second day in a row winning 6-2 behind a normal Jacob deGrom performance, three hits from Cabrera, a homer from Cespedes, 3 RBI’s from the Todd Father and a homer from d’Arnaud. In order to get the sweep Mets must do two things that were elusive in 2017: win on a Sunday and get a reliable start from Steven Matz.

Matz was 2-7 over 13 games and 66.2 innings with a 6.08 ERA, 5.05 FIP, 1.530 WHIP and 70 ERA+. When he came back from injury last year in June, he he had a fantastic start in Atlanta but then had two torrid starts. Through July 3rd he pretty much was either great or terrible but starting with a game against the Cardinals on July 9th until he got injured again, he was pretty much just terrible. Against the Cardinals he allowed 5 runs off 7 hits and a walk in 4.1 innings. The Cardinals have the following numbers against him:

• Ozuna 3-11
• Fowler 2-6
• Carpetenter 1-32, 2B
• Pham 3-3, HR
• DeJong 2-2, HR
• Gyorko 0-2
• Molina 0-2

For the first time in two days, the Mets bats will not face a former All-Star (same can be said for the Cardinals) in Luke Weaver. In his sophomore season, Weaver went 7-2 over 60.1 innings posting a 3.88 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 1.260 WHIP, 110 ERA+. Luke will be looking to rebound from the end of his season where he allowed 14 runs over 7.2 innings in two starts from 16 hits and 6 walks. His ERA for last year drops to 2.05 if you ignore those last two starts. This will be Luke’s first start against the Mets in his career and he has not faced any Mets while they were members of other clubs.

Who’s Hotter Than Take By A Relative At A Holiday* Dinner?
In his first two games this year, Cespedes has been on base 6 times in 10 plate appearances. Small sample size but he has a 1.457 OPS which is a fun start of the season scoreboard number.

Who’s Colder Than A Turkey* Someone forgot to defrost properly?
All of us in the NYC metro area. It may snow tonight.

*Happy Passover and Easter to those who celebrate. The turkey may have been my situation yesterday. Oops.

Jacob deGrom probably is the Mets leader in the rotation. The one pitcher who didn’t go down to injury last year, he crossed the 200 inning mark, put up another solid year despite a few starts had a fantastic year. The other pitchers on staff should lean on deGrom who came back from a season ending injury in 2016 for 2017.

While the Mets will go as far as the back half of their rotation, none of that will matter if Syndergaard and deGrom aren’t Syndergaard and deGrom. Here is what the computers think Jacob will do this year:

Overall, the projections see Jacob performing a level slightly better than his 2017 campaign posting a better ERA/FIP/WHIP.

If Syndergaard meets his 2.97 ERA projection and deGrom meets hits 3.39, the Mets will have a strong back bone to break up losing streaks, establish winning streaks, etc. Can a deGrom with less hair dominate? Syndergaard may be the mane attraction now but Jacob is the leader of this rotation.

Forty Five.

That’s the approximate amount of hours it has been since the Mets have played a ball game by today’s scheduled first pitch. Have you missed them yet?

The Mets started the season off with a strong 9-4 win over the Cardinals that saw Syndergaard record 10 strikeouts, Cespedes knock in 3 runs, Nimmo and Gonzalez get on base four times and the Mets bullpen toss three perfect innings of relief. Before we move on, that wasn’t a typo about Gonzalez. He got two walks and two hits including a double rivaling the amount of times he was on base all spring.

Jacob deGrom will make his 2018 debut today. Last year he went 15-10 over 31 games and 201.1 innings with a 3.53 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 1.187 WHIP and a 119 ERA+. He had two different starts against Cardinals last year. In St. Louis he allowed 4 runs from 4 homers over 7.0 innings of work. About two weeks later he held the Cardinals to 1 run over 7 hits in 6.2 innings. The Cardinals have the following numbers against him:

• Ozuna 8-30, 2 2B, HR, BB, 9 K
• Carpenter 3-14, HR
• Fowler 2-9, HR, 2 BB
• Molina 3-10, 2B
• Gyorko 3-9, HR
• Wong 1-8
• DeJong 3-6, 2B, HR

The Mets bats draw an All-Star for the second straight day and former NLCS MVP Michael Wacha who last year was 12-9 over 30 game sand 165.2 innings with a 4.13 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 1.358 WHIP and 103 ERA+. Wacha’s best year was 2015 where he posted a 3.38 ERA/3.87 FIP/1.213 WHIP/ 116 ERA+. Last year was a move in the right direction after a dreadful 2016 campaign. One of his best games of the season in 2017 was against the Mets where he held the Mets scoreless over a complete game limiting the Mets to 3 hits and a walk while striking out 8. The Mets have the following numbers against Wacha:

• Bruce 1-28, BB, .069 OBP
• Frazier 6-24, 2B, 2 HE, 2 BB
• Gonzalez 2-17, 2B, 3 BB
• Reyes 0-6
• Cabrera 0-3
• Cespedes 1-4
• Flores 0-5
• Lagares 1-3
• d’Arnaud 1-1, BB

Who Is Hotter Than Pickleball At A Senior Citizen Community Center?
Gonzalez. A game after being my “easy, can’t be wrong cold pick”, Adrián Gonzalez gets a double, a single and two walks and had me eating a large bowl of crow, which I enjoyed.

Who is Colder Than A Surprise Chance of Snow on Easter Weekend?
Anyone who wanted the “Thumbs Down” Yankee thing that Todd Frazier was involved with to come to the 2018 Mets (this includes the knock off “Thumbs Up”). The Mets debuted the Salt and Pepper Grinder action to be their hit cheering device for the season on Opening Day.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets have a plethora of places to get a burger while watching the game and new to the scene last year was Bash Burger:

It’s the most expensive burger option on the concourse (“beating” out Shake Shack, Keith’s Grill, and burgers from the normal stands) but in my opinion it’s the best thanks to the bacon jam and the toasted buns (really it’s the toasted buns).

Opening Day is finally here! The Mets look to return to the post-season this year after a disappointing, injury filled 2017 campaign. Last year the team had a lot of promise in Spring but lost player after player ensuring all Mets fans know mantra “You can never have too much pitching depth”. With a new manager and not many expectations that exist outside of the New York bubble, the Mets will kick off 2018 against the Cardinals.

The Mets will send out Noah Syndergaard for Opening Day. Last year he was 1-2 over 7 starts and 30.1 innings with a 2.97 ERA although that doesn’t tell the whole story. He was full speed throughout April until the 30th. He allowed 5 runs over 1.1 innings, tore his lat and was out until the end of September where he came back for two games pitching 3 innings allowing only one hit. Spring doesn’t mean anything but he was on cruise control in March pitching in 5 games and 20.0 innings allowed only 4 runs, 3 earned (1.35 ERA) with 23 K’s vs 6 walks. The last time he faced the Cardinals was July 2016 where he allowed 3 runs, 2 earned over 7 hits and 6.0 innings with 8 K’s. The Cardinals have the following numbers against Thor:

• Ozuna 3-14, HR, 4 K
• Fowler 1-5, BB
• Gyorko 1-6, HR, 3K
• Molina 2-6, 2B, K
• Pham 2-4
• Carpenter 0-3, K
• Martinez 0-2

The Mets draw two-time All-Star Carlos Martinez who was 12-11 over 32 games last year logging 205.0 innings posting a 3.64 ERA, 3.91 FIP and 1.220 WHIP. Overall it was a slight step back statistically for Martinez as in the two previous seasons he posted a 3.01/3.04 ERA and a 3.21/3.61 FIP. He pitched against the Mets in early July last year allowing 5 runs on 7 hits in 5.0 innings. The Mets have the following numbers against Martinez:

• Gonzalez 3-17, HR
• Bruce 4-19, 2 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB
• Frazier 3-15, 6 K
• Cespedes 4-12, 2B, HR, 3 K
• Reyes 4-13, 2B, HR
• Cabrera 2-6, 2B
• d’Arnaud 1-5, 2K

Who’s Hotter than a Underground Subway Station in August Right Now?
I know it’s spring training but in 38 PA’s, Cespedes is hitting .324/.368/.882 right now with 6 homers.

Who’s Colder than an April night baseball game in Queens?
In 58 PA’s this spring, Gonzalez is hitting .207/.270/.293.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets season rests, in large part, on Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom. Between injuries and flailing, the Mets Big 5 rotation of aces looks more like Syndergaard and deGrom as a fantastic 1 and 2 followed by hopeful renaissance.

Syndergaard got off to a great start last year and then at the end of April, in the midst of his worst start of the season (probably due to ignoring an injury, we can play the blame game on that later), Noah tore his lat and looked like he was done for the season. He came back and pitched 3.0 innings in the last week of the season to get some positive vibes going into the off-season. Here’s what the computers think of him:

In a press conference yesterday, Noah said he wanted to reach the 200 innings mark this year. Every projection disagrees with him. For the most part, the projections see him being a dominating pitcher with a strong K/BB ratio and a strong WHIP.

If Noah posts a 2.96 ERA, 2.71 FIP and 1.12 WHIP at the end of the season, and if he can break the projections for innings pitched, the Mets will have fun every five days.

Today Noah looks to take the first step. The only guarantee: Noah’s start will be over analyzed during the long off day that follows tomorrow.

Last year the Mets #1 position prospect got called up. Rosario brought hope to a team that was floundering and a fan base that was looking for something to be positive about. For the last several years the Mets had been suffering horrible short stop defense. Now the Mets have Rosario.

We know his defense is great, but how’s his bat?

Ultimately the computer models see a sizable increase in OBP, a huge part of his game missing last year. The Mets don’t need him to be a slugger but need him to get on base for the other sluggers in the lineup. Depending on where he hits he will either get a lot of balls in the zone if he’s surrounded by power, or pitchers may pitch around him if he is near the pitcher.

I’m excited to watch his development this season. My gut tells me the projections low ball Rosario, but I think I’m filled with hope and optimism, going with my heart not my baseball brain.