213 Miles From Shea

I debated writing this article because Rafael Montero is out for the entire season. I pulled half the data that I normally use before his injury, and figured I wouldn’t probably write about him for a year, so what the hell let’s just go with it.

Montero was incredibly frustrating last year. Once he got pulled into the rotation he started pitching well. Then he started being terrible again. WHICH MONTERO WOULD WE GET?!

This debate must have continued through the off-season as Robles and Montero survived the January cuts to the 40 man as intriguing players like Josh Smoker got cut. Someone in the organization was rooting for Montero.

Montero had a terrible spring. As the chorus of calls to cut him from the roster started to rise, Montero suffered a year ending injury thus saving the Mets from making a decision they’ve been reluctant to for years.

I still have hope for Montero, he shows just enough hope to keep me hooked.

In January of 2015, I attended the Queens Baseball Convention with guest Wally Backman. Everyone wanted to talk Noah Syndergaard but Backman wanted to talk about Steven Matz. He described the lefty as unhittable. Matz showed brilliance in 2015 although limited by injuries.

Now, who knows with Matz? Last year he tossed back to back scoreless 7 inning games. He also had a terrible year. He struggled in Spring Training. With Vargas coming back soon and if Wheeler fixes himself in Las Vegas, what happens to Matz? Let’s look at what the computers think:

They all see last year as a fluke. However a 4.17 ERA, 1.328 WHIP is not what Mets fans expect either from a member of the rotation of aces. ZiPS however is all in on Matz returning to form.

Matz struggled in his first start and draws the Nationals in his second. He hasn’t faced a weak offense yet. It’s too early to write Matz off but disillusionment from the last two seasons has leaked in.

Seth Lugo was a critical piece to the oft injured 2016 Mets team that made the Wild Card. His curve ball has a ridiculous RPM and he rode that through the end of the 2016 campaign and became the ace for Team Puerto Rico in the 2017 World Baseball Classic. Then the injuries happened and his numbers returned to Earth in 2017, when the Mets needed aces in the rotation.

Coming into this season, Lugo’s roll was uncertain. Does he start? He does he fit in with an injured Vargas, a struggling Matz and a Wheeler with a disastrous spring? Mother nature so far this season has prevented a Lugo start but he has been tremendous out of the pen. Let’s take a look at what the projections models think:

These projections are pretty close to last year’s. They don’t see Lugo going back to his amazing 2016, but they see him pitching a lot like last year. Most of the projections see Lugo as a starter thought. Similar to Gsellman, I think it’s safe to assume that his stats get a lot better in a relief roll as his time on the mound decrease.

A Lugo with that devastating curve out of the pen could be a great change of pace from the flame throwing style of most baseball bullpens now.

The Mets and Nationals hopefully return to the baseball field this afternoon. As custom, with Thursday being the home opener for the Nationals, both teams had off yesterday just in case the festivities had to be pushed back a day. The risk for snow today has been greatly reduced but an outside chance still looms.

Also looming in DC are the Mets bats! The Mets outfield came out in force on Thursday with homers from Cespedes, Bruce and Conforto! For Cespedes, it was his third homer in 6 days. For Conforto, it was wonderful to see him in his first game back from injury. The Mets look to keep the good times going tonight as Steven Matz takes on Gio González.

Steven Matz is looking to rebound from his first start of the season where he allowed 3 runs over 4.0 innings against the Cardinals on Sunday afternoon from 4 hits and 3 walks in the Mets only loss this season. The long ball hurt Matz who allowed 2 homers. Matz had two very different starts against the Nationals last year. In his second start of the season he allowed 4 earned runs from 8 hits and no walks in 7.0 innings. Three weeks later he held the Nationals scoreless over 7.0 innings and to only 4 hits and two walks. That start was one of two starts all year where Matz held an opponent scoreless. The Nationals have the following numbers against Steven:

• Rendon 3-12, HR, 6 K
• Taylor 3-10, HR, 2 BB, 3 K
• Harper 2-9, BB
• Kendrick 2-9, 2 K
• Zimmerman 0-9
• Turner 1-8, 2B
• Wieters 1-5, HR

Gio González is coming off a strong opening start to the 2018 season where he allowed 1 runs over 6.0 innings from 5 hits and 1 walk while striking out 7. Last year he went 15-9 over 32 starts and 201.0 innings posting a 2.96 ERA, 3.93 FIP, 1.179 WHIP and 150 ERA+. Gio was tremendous against the Mets last year going 3-0 in as many starts holding the Mets to 5 runs in 20.0 innings (2.25 ERA). In that stretch he allowed 13 hits and 4 walks while striking out 13 (0.850 WHIP). The Mets have the following numbers against Gio:

• Lagares 16-43, 3 2B, 3B, Hr, BB, 7 K
• Cabrera 7-31, 2 BB
• Bruce 4-23, 4 2B, 3 BB, 9 K
• Flores 5-23, HR, 2 BB
• Gonzalez 2-19, BB
• Reyes 7-19, 2 2B, 2 HR
• d’Arnaud 3-16, 3 2B
• Cespedes 7-13, 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB
• Frazier 2-11, 2B, 5 K

Who’s Hotter than a Bowl of Ben’s Chili?
Cespedes! In 27 plate appearances he’s hitting .273/.407/.682 so far!

Who’s Colder than Tri-State Area Students thinking they would get a warm spring break?
Jose Reyes. He got the start for match-ups yesterday. He has the numbers today against Gio but on the season he is still searching for a hit in first 8 PA’s (he does have one walk though, also one caught stealing).

Let’s Go Mets!

The 2016 Mets got two surprises down the stretch that floated the team into a Wild Card game in Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman. Injuries early on to the rotation in 2017 put a lot of pressure on Robert Gsellman and he didn’t have a good year. Earlier in the off-season he was slated to be in the projection depth chart and probably in Las Vegas right now but through Spring Training he emerged as a bullpen option. So far, he’s been great! Let’s see what the computers thought he would do this year.

The computers basically saw two things. First, his 2016 was flukey good. This is what the computers saw going into last season. Second, his 2017 was flukey bad. For the most part the computers see Gsellman as a starter getting considerable time in the rotation this year except Steamer who saw Robert as a reliever .As a reliever his numbers should be better than his projection line which is already better than his 2017 line.

I’m looking forward for Gsellman’s 2018! He’s off to a good start seems to be vibing with Callaway and the new system.

When I went to San Diego last summer, my goal was to have fish, tacos and a lot of fish tacos. This was the first of two fish tacos I got at the ballpark.

Between the food, beer and atmosphere, San Diego is my favorite ballpark across the land! Go. Like right now. You need this.

The Mets will go as far as their bullpen this year, and Familia will be crucial. Going into the season, the Mets were reluctant to name an exact closer, opting to go by closer by committee although it seems early on that Familiar is the go to person for that role. It has felt like for years that Familia’s stock as a closer was raised by his propensity to get saves and Collins affinity for saves as a statistic.

Last year was rough for Familia. The computers see Familia going back to his mean numbers. If he puts a 3.31 ERA/3.26 FIP/1.29 WHIP, that would be a boon to the Mets bullpen. So far in the last two days we have seen both sides of Familia with a heart attack ninth inning and a ninth inning that was anxiety inducing only due to its proximity in time to the heart attack inning.

One of the key pieces of the Mets bullpen last year was Jerry Blevins. The Mets need Blevins to be Blevins like as the Mets lived and died with their pitching for the majority of last season. Already the #1 personality in the bullpen, once Reed was traded, Blevins became the most reliable member of the pen pitching in 75 games because Terry Collins was Terry Collins. What do the computers think he’ll do this year?

The computers see a regression on his numbers in terms of ERA, but not so much on FIP (ZiPS actually sees him posting a better FIP than last year). Despite a huge rise in his ERA, the computers see his WHIP dropping, so maybe the computers also thought the Mets would have trash defense?

The Mets start their first road trip of the season this year as they head down to Washington. It was a successful first week for the Mets as they went 4-1, thanks in large part to their bullpen and they face a Nationals team that is now 4-2 after starting the season 4-0. With the exception of 2015, the Nationals have played well against the Mets and while I personally want to be calm, cool and collected saying “this is just another game” or “it’s barely the second week of the season, it’s too early to be scoreboard watching” – I can’t. Two of three to start the season down in DC would be great. Let’s just started with 1 though for right now. And what a good 1 it could be today as this afternoon also marks the return of Scooter! Michael Conforto returns to the Mets almost a month ahead of the original May 1st estimate.

Additional concerns: with today being the home opener for the Nationals, the Mets and Nationals have a wonky schedule this weekend including a day game today, an off day tomorrow, a day game Saturday and a night game on Sunday. Further complicating the schedule – snow may be on the way for the DC region Friday into Saturday.

Jacob deGrom makes his second start of the season for the Mets. He picked up a win in the Mets second game of the year pitching 5.2 innings allowing a run on 4 hits and a walk while striking out 7. He was 3-2 against the Nationals in 2017 in as many games pitching 34.1 innings allowing 11 runs, 9 earned (2.36 ERA) from 27 hits and 10 walks while striking out 49 and posting a WHIP of 1.149. His 2.36 ERA was the best ERA he posted against any team in the National League East. The Nationals have the following numbers against deGrom:

• Harper 9-24, 2 2B, HR, 5 BB
• Rendon 0-19, 4 BB, 6 K
• Kendrick 2-20, 3 K
• Taylor 1-19, BB, 11 K
• Zimmerman 5-16, 2 HR, 6 K
• Turner 5-15, 2B, HR, BB
• Weiters 3-12, HR

The Mets bats draw Stephen Strasburg this afternoon, coming off back to back All Star Seasons. In his first start in 2018 he allowed 3 runs, 1 earned over 6.1 innings from 8 hits and one walk while striking out 7 on his way to a win. Last year he was 15-4 over 28 games and 175.1 innings with a 2.52 ERA, 2.72 FIP (league leading), 1.015 WHIP and 176 ERA+. Stephen was 1-1 in four starts against the Mets pitching 24.1 innings holding the Mets to 8 runs (2.96 ERA) from 21 hits and 6 walks while striking out 19. The Mets have the following numbers against Strasburg:

• Reyes 8-32, 3 2B, BB
• Bruce 8-22, 2B, HR, 3 K
• Cabrera 3-16, 2 HR, 2 BB, 5 K
• d’Arnaud 4-16, HR, 2 BB, 6 K
• Cespedes 8-15, 2B, 4 K
• Lagares 2-16, 7 K
• Conforto 2-15, HR, 7 K

Who’s Hotter than a overcrowded 5 train trying to bring Mets fans to Grand Central and Yankee fans to some other place?
The Mets bullpen! Yesterday they posted 5 scoreless innings including HANSEL ROBLES (despite the Phillies messing with his undershirt)

Who’s Colder than all the fans yesterday at Citi Field before the Sun came out?
Any Mets fan who follows relies on the rhythm of the Mets first pitch times to establish order in their life. Through the weekend the Mets will have only one game this entire season that started at 7 PM.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets and Phillies wrap up their first series of the year today as Noah Syndergaard looks to hold off Herrera and the weather in a matinee game held exclusively on Facebook for reasons I personally refuse to understand. Last nigh was a vintage Harvey night as Matt tossed 5 scoreless innings and the Mets bats made sure to match him putting up a bland offense. After some pitching changes, the Mets broke out their seasoning, scored a couple of runs and survived a Phillies rally in the ninth.

Noah Syndergaard had an interesting day on Opening Day. He tossed 6.0 innings allowed 4 runs from two homers and 4 hits, but didn’t walk any and struck out 10. One homer definitely came from a pitch where he just missed his spot so the line by runs looks worse than it actually was. Noah faced the Phillies twice last year. His first start against him, where he started to show signs of an injury that would rupture a week later against the Nationals, he allowed 5 runs, 3 earned off 7 hits in 7.0 innings while walking none and striking out 10. He closed out the season against the Phillies tossing 2.0 innings allowing one walk and striking out 2. The Phillies have the following numbers against Syndergaard:

• Herrera 1-17
• Hernandez 1-11, 3 BB, 5 K
• Franco 4-13, 2B, 3 K
• Altherr 1-7
• Knapp 1-4, 2B
• Nola 0-2
• Hoskins 0-0, BB

Many eyes in the baseball world will be on Aaron Nola and the Phillies bullpen management today. Gabe Kapler made a big deal at the start of the season that Nola is great the first time through the order (and even better the second time through) but falls apart the third time. On Opening Day, Nola tossed 5.1 innings allowing 3 hits and run with only one walk while striking out 3. After 68 pitches he was pulled and the bullpen blew up the game. This was the first day of Kaplers very bad, no good first week of managing baseball. Last year Nola went 12-11 over 27 games with 168.0 innings, 3.54 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 1.208 WHIP and 121 ERA+. Aaron went 2-0 in as many starts against the Mets last year allowing 5 runs from 9 hits and 6 walks in 12.0 innings (3.75 ERA). The Mets have the following numbers against him:

• Bruce 2-8, BB, 3 K
• Cespedes 3-8, HR, BB
• Cabrera 2-6
• d’Arnaud 1-5, 2B
• Reyes 1-5
• Nimmo 0-2
• Rosario 1-2, 2B

Who’s hotter than the way weather should be today?
Lugo and Gsellman have tossed a combined 3.2 scoreless innings with 2 hits and 8 K’s in their transition to the bullpen

Who’s colder than a Mets fan waiting 3 innings to use the bathroom at a sellout game?
Flores is now 1-7 on the year. Small sample size. I really struggled trying to find someone for this section today.

Let’s Go Mets!