213 Miles From Shea

Let the kids play! The Mets won in the 9th inning last night, largely behind their young hitters and tonight they’ll try to take the series from the Marlins. Yesterday the Mets went down 2-0 early, crawled back to make it 2-2 (thanks to a Juan Lagares homer, his first since September 2017) then fell 3-2 and were able to knot it up again. In the top of the 9th Amed singled in Dom Smith to take the lead and then Pete Alonso unloaded on a baseball for his first career home run that traveled 440-ft and left his bat at 113 miles per hour. Edwin Diaz would make things interesting in the 9th loading the bases before striking out the side.

My takeaway from last night was the dugout after Smith scored and then Alonso scored. The Mets looked liked they were having so much fun. It’s been a long time since I’ve seen that much joy on their faces and I hope this continues. When they’re having fun, they’re way more fun to watch!

Jason Vargas makes his first start of 2019 today for the Mets. Last year was the tale of two seasons for him. Overall he went 7-9 over 20 starts and 92.0 innings with a 5.77 ERA, 5.02 FIP, 1.413 WHIP and 64 ERA+. From his first start until August 7th he made 12 starts and pitched 47.1 innings posting at 8.75 ERA. From his next start (August 14th) until the end of the season he made 8 starts, pitched 44.2 innings and posted a 2.62 ERA. Completely different. In two starts against the Marlins last year he allowed 2 runs off 5 hits in 11.0 innings while striking out 14 batters. The Marlins have the following numbers against Vargas:

• Curtis Granderson 7-14, 2 2B, BB
• Starlin Castro 3-10, 3 2B, 2 BB, K
• Brian Anderson 0-5, 4 K
• Lewis Brinson 1-4, BB
• Miguel Rojas 2-5, HR
• Peter O’Brien 0-2, BB
• Martin Prado 1-2
• Neil Walker 0-1, K

The Mets bats will get their first look at Jose Urena who will be making his second start of the season tonight. Last year Jose made 31 starts pitching 174.0 innings posting a 3.98 ERA, 4.17 FIP (career low), 1.184 WHIP (career low) and a 91 ERA+. For a second straight year he led the league in hitting batters with pitchers with 14 in 2017 and 12 in 2018 (but none so far this year!). In his first start this season he allowed 6 runs, 5 earned off 9 hits and a walk while striking out 2. So far, his 9 hits allowed is the highest by any individual pitcher in 2019. He faced the Mets a lot last year making 4 starts and totaling 22.2 innings posting a 3.57 ERA and allowing 9 runs from 22 hits and 9 walks while striking out 14. The Mets have the following numbers against Urena:

• Michael Conforto 7-19, 2 2B, HR, BB, K
• Brandon Nimmo 3-10, HR, 2 BB, 2 K
• Amed Rosario 4-11, 2B, 3 K
• Jeff McNeil 2-9
• Dominic Smith 2-9, K
• Wilson Ramos 1-6, 3 K
• Robinson Cano 0-1

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets continue their first road trip in 2019 with a series in Miami. Yesterday the Mets dropped the last game of their series with the Nationals via a walk-off homer from Trea Turner. The Mets were trailing the entire game but scored 3 runs in the 8th inning off several hits to tie the game at 5. It stinks to lose a chance at early season sweep, the Mets did get a series win on the road which is nice.

The Marlins opened up 2019 with a 4 game set against the Rockies, splitting the series after dropping the first two games. The attendance at the ballpark has been an early season story in Miami. After having 25,000+ fans for Opening Day, the Marlins have had between 6,500 and 7,700 fans every game since, and those games happened on a weekend. Mets fans will also get to see two familiar faces as Neil Walker and Curtis Granderson are now fish.

Steven Matz will make his first start of 2019 tonight in the first night game the Mets have played this year. Last year he went 5-11 over 30 starts and 154.0 innings with a 3.97 ERA, 4.62 FIP, 1.247 WHIP and a 93 ERA+. He was 1-0 in three starts against the Marlins in 2018 pitching 17.2 innings with a 1.53 ERA (4 runs, 3 earned from 9 hits and 5 walks while striking out 18). The Marlins have the following numbers against him:

• Miguel Rojas 2-16, 2B, 2 K
• Starlin Castro 1-14, 2B, 6 K
• Martin Prado 5-11, 2 BB
• Brian Snderson 1-9, 2B, 3 K
• Lewis Brinson 0-6, BB, 3 K
• Jorge Alfaro 2-5, BB

The Mets bats will get a look at Caleb Smith as he makes his 2019 debut. Last year he pitched in 16 games going 5-6 over 77.1 innings with a 4.19 ERA, 3.96 FIP, 1.241 WHIP and 87 ERA+. He faced the Mets twice last year allowing 4 runs from 8 hits and 3 walks over 11.2 innings (3.09 ERA) while striking out 15. The Mets have the following numbers against Caleb Smith:

• Michael Conforto 2-6, 3 K
• Amed Rosario 1-4, 2B, K
• Brandon Nimmo 0-3, 2 K
• Robinson Cano 1-2
• Juan Lagares 0-2, K

Let’s Go Mets!

Each week in 2019 we do a check to see how all of our old friends in the major leagues are doing. Some were Mets that were signed by other teams, some are players that we cut, others are players that we traded away and the jealous side of us wants to see how they are all doing.

AL East:
Adam Kolarek: Adam is the only player in the AL East on an active roster right now that used to be a Met. He was cut from our farm system back around 2015 and is now a Tampa Bay Ray. He has been in 3 games this year and recorded two outs while giving up two hits, a walk and no runs.

AL Central:
Oliver Perez: Oliver is with the Cleveland Indians. He has appeared in one game so far where he recorded one out, and then was pulled out of the game.
Kevin Plawecki: Kevin was traded to the Cleveland Indians this off-season in a trade that might haunt the Mets due to the health of their back up catchers right now. He has not recorded an AB yet.
Lucas Duda: After being cut by the Twins in Spring Training, Lucas Duda was signed by the Royals. He’s played in 1 game and got a single in four trips.

AL West:
Collin McHugh: In his one start so far for the Astros this season, Collin allowed 2 runs over 3 hits and 5.0 innings while striking out 5.
Kyle Dowdy: The Rule V pick by the Mets who was cut right at the end of Spring Training was signed by the Rangers where he has allowed 3 runs from 4 hits and 2 walks in one game where he pitched 2.0 innings.
Asdrubal Cabrera: In three games and 11 AB’s, Cabrera already has 5 hits including a double and two homers leading to an excellent small sample size line of .455/.462/1.091
Yusmeiro Petit: Has pitched one shutout inning this season with no runs, no hits and a walk.
Chasen Bradford: Has recorded two outs in one game pitched no hits, a walk and a strikeout.
Gerson Bautista: Traded to the Mariners as part of the Cano/Diaz trade, Bautista is starting the season in the IL
Anthony Swarzak: Traded to the Mariners as part of the Cano/Diaz trade, Swarzak is starting the season on the IL
Matt Harvey: Harvey had a successful Angels debut allowing 2 runs over 4 hits and a walk in 6.0 innings of work.
Hansel Robles: Robles has allowed 1 hit and 3 strikeouts over 2.0 innings in 2 games. No runs yet!

NL East:
Neil Walker: Walker has played in all 4 games as a Marlin but only recording 8 AB’s hitting .250/.400//.625. Both of his hits have been doubles.
Curtis Granderson: Over two games and 5 AB’s as a Marlin Granderson already has two hits and a homer
Darren O’Day: He was a Met for like a minute, then the Mets cut him and he went off to become a high value reliever. He’s starting the season on the IL

NL Central:
John Gant: Gant has pitched in two games, 2.2 innings so far allowing a hit and two walks with no runs.
Merandy Gonzalez: Was just cut from his team and then promptly picked up by the Cardinals who have him on their 40-man roster. So not active yet
Bobby Wahl: Acquired in the Familia trade last year, Wahl was traded this off-season for Keon Broxton and will spend significant time on the IL

NL West:
Justin Turner: Turner has played in all 4 games recording 15 ABs hitting .267/.421/.267 on the young season. No extra base hits yet but has recorded 5 RBI’s.
Wilmer Flores: Wilmer has played in all three games hitting .200/.200/.300, his one hit in 10 ABs being a double.
Daniel Murphy: Murphy suffered a fractured finger and ligament damage during game 3 of the season (Rockies @ Marlins), he’ll probably miss significant time

It’s finally over! And this year only a few days into the regular season. Today we wrap up a series where we’ve been looking at a conglomerate of Mets projections for each player on the Mets or who could make the team this year. Luis Avilan, a non-roster invitee to Mets camp this year who made the roster after a strong spring training is our 37th and last entry into this series.

Luis Avilan was signed by the Braves in 2005 and ten years later was part of a three team trade with the Dodgers and the Marlins (he was sent to the Dodgers). Then before the 2018 season he was part of another three team trade this time with the White Sox and the Royals. He was then traded during the season from Chicago to the Phillies.

2019 Spring Training: 11.1 IP, 10 H, 3 ER, 13 K, 0 BB, 2.38 ERA, 0.882 WHIP
2018: 45.1 IP, 3.77 ERA, 3.09 FIP, 1.368 WHIP, 10.1 K, 0.5 WAR, 4.88 DRA
Career: 3.09 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 1.225 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 4.22 DRA

To be honest, I was surprised the Mets were able to get him on a minor league deal, but that’s the nature right now of baseball. His stats were good last year and in Spring he just looked great only having one bad outing. Here’s what computers think he’ll do in 2019:

(Citations: Baseball Prospectus (BP) projections are from the Baseball Prospectus annual which can you can get here. It’s highly recommended. ESPN projections can be found here. ZiPS can be found here. Steamer can be found here. Baseball Reference projections (BR) can found on the players BR page which linked elsewhere on this article. )

There’s a pretty wide spread on ERA’s, not so much on WHIP. Like usual BP and BR are the most conservative. Bucking the trend, ESPN and Steamer agree with each other but ZiPS is high on his performance for this year. This puts Avilan’s projection in the same category as Justin Wilson since it’s rare to see ZiPS and Steamer disagree so radically. Here it may be because the data put into Steamer suggested that Luis wouldn’t make the major league club.

Could Avilan be an X-factor for this team? We’ll find out!

Towards the end of Spring Training the Orioles lost Alex Cobb due to injury. Reports right now is that he should be ready for the home opener on Thursday. (Mets fans, Cobb should sound familiar. When the Mets were interested in signing Jason Vargas last year, there was another group of fans that wanted the Mets to go after Alex Cobb instead).

So the Orioles did something a little unusual for this early in the season – they scheduled a bullpen day (hoping to capitalize on the amount of off-days early on in their schedule). The plan was to just put a ton of righties against the Yankees lineup.

• Nate Karns pitched the first two innings
• Jimmy Yacabonis pitched the next three innings.
• Miguel Castro pitched the next two innings
• Mychal Givens pitched the 8th.
• Richard Bleier (the only lefty on the day) and Mike Wright Jr split the ninth.

And here’s the end result:

Ain’t the beer cold! 🍻 pic.twitter.com/yJsjvy2Jd7

— Baltimore Orioles (@Orioles) March 30, 2019

So the Orioles are now 1-1, and at least won’t go 0-162. I think everyone is pulling for them this season, it’s hard not to love a team where everything is against them.

The Mets go for an Opening Series Sweep this afternoon! Yesterday the Mets won 11-8 in a long game. The Mets went up up early 3-0 in the first and later 4-1 but as Syndergaard labored through 6 innings the Nationals eventually tied it 4-4. Between the 8th and 9th inning the Mets were able to push it all the way out to 11-4 before collapsing a bit allowing the final score to be 11-8. Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil were the star hitters of the day and the team overall recorded 14 hits.

Zack Wheeler makes his 2019 debut today. Last year he went 12-7 over 29 games and 182.1 innings with a 3.31 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 1.124 WHIP and 111 ERA+. All of those were career bests for Wheeler. He was 2-1 over three games and 20.2 innings against the Nationals allowing 7 runs (3.05 ERA) from 21 hits and 8 walks while striking out 13. The Nationals have the following numbers against Wheeler:

• Anthony Rendon 9-26, 4 BB, 4 K
• Ryan Zimmerman 8-23, 2 HR, 2 BB, 4 K
• Trea Turner 5-13, 2B, 2 BB
• Adam Eaton 5-10, 2B, 2 BB
• Juan Soto 2-6, BB
• Howie Kendrick 1-6, K
• Brian Dozier 0-3, K

The Mets bats get to experience the Nationals debut of their major off-season signing: Patrick Corbin. The lefty had a career year in his walk year pitching 200.0 innings in 33 starts with a 3.15 ERA, 2.47 FIP, 1.050 WHIP and 137 ERA+. He faced the Mets twice last year allowing 7 runs off 12 hits and 6 walks in 11.1 innings, a 5.56 ERA. The Mets have the following numbers against him:

• Juan Lagares 2-16, 2B, HR, 2 K
• Michael Conforto 4-8, 2B, 3 HR, BB, 2 K
• Keon Broxton 4-6, 2B, 3B, 2 BB
• Amed Rosario 2-8, 2B, HR, K
• Brandon Nimmo 2-6, BB, 3 K
• Robinson Cano 1-2, HR, BB
• J.D. Davis 0-3, K
• Wilson Ramos 0-2, BB

Let’s Go Mets!

I’m not sure what’s longer: the off-day after the All-Star break or the off-day after Opening Day. The Mets beat the Nationals 2-0 on Thursday just like BVW thought they would. His newly extended starter Jacob deGrom was great over 6 innings, his newly signed reliever Familia pitched a clean 8th, his newly acquired closer Diaz shut the door in the 9th and newly acquired second basemen Cano provided all of the offense including a homer in first at bat plus made a game saving defensive play. Just a great a day.

And then we had to wait for more Mets baseball.

But the wait is over! It’s Thorsday! Noah Syndergaard takes the mound this afternoon. Last year Noah went 13-4 over 25 starts and 154.1 innings with 2 complete games (tied for league lead) and 1 complete game shutout (tied for league lead). He posted a 3.03 ERA, 2.80 FIP, 1.212 WHIP and a 121 ERA+. He tossed 12.0 innings against the Nationals last season allowing 4 runs off 13 hits and 3 walks while striking out 7. The Nationals have the following numbers against Syndergaard:

• Anthony Rendon 9-26, 2B, 2 HR, BB, 5 K
• Ryan Zimmerman 3-13, 2 2B, 5 K
• Howie Kendrick 1-12, 2B, K
• Trea Turner 2-12, 2B, 2 K
• Matt Adams 0-5, 3 BB, 3 K
• Adam Eaton 3-8, K
• Kurt Suzuki 0-6, BB, K
• Michael A Taylor 2-7, 3 K
• Juan Soto 1-6, 3 K

The Mets will get their first look this year at a National rotation mainstay: Stephen Strasburg. Stephen went 10-7 over 22 starts and 130.0 innings last year posting a 3.74 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 1.200 WHIP and 114 ERA+. He only faced the Mets once last year allowing 4 runs over 5 hits and 2 walks in 6.0 innings of work. In his career he is 8-5 over 17 starts against the Mets with a 2.83 ERA in 105.0 innings of work. Yoenis Cespedes has been one of the most prolific hitters against Strasburg going 9-18 with a double and a homer, so he’s definitely missed this afternoon. The Mets have the following numbers against him:

• Michael Conforto 9-18, 2B, HR, BB, 6 K
• Juan Lagares 2-16, 7 K
• Brandon Nimmo 2-7, 2B, BB, 2 K
• Robinson Cano 0-3, 2 K
• Wilson Ramos 1-3
• Amed Rosario 1-2, K
• Dominic Smith 1-2, K

Let’s Go Mets!

At the start of the off-season, Daniel Zamora pretty much had to make the roster. He was the only lefty in the Mets bullpen that existed. As the off-season continued the Mets signed several players to compete with Zamora. First Justin Wilson signed a major league deal for a good chunk of money making Zamora expendable from the roster. Spring Training started and Avilan started to pitch his heart out, pitching himself onto the roster.

So Zamora is not on the active roster right now, but that could change. He had a good debut, although short, last season:

2018: 9 IP, 3.00 ERA, 2.38 FIP, 1.0 WHIP, 16 K/9, 0.3 WAR, 2.26 DRA

Obviously a cup of coffee, lets take a peak at what projections think he’ll eventually do this season:

(Citations: Baseball Prospectus (BP) projections are from the Baseball Prospectus annual which can you can get here. It’s highly recommended. ESPN projections can be found here. ZiPS can be found here. Steamer can be found here. Baseball Reference projections (BR) can found on the players BR page which linked elsewhere on this article. )

So they didn’t project a full season of work for Zamora, probably about half a season of work but those numbers are surprisingly good! The usual suspects, BP and BR are the most down on his 2019. ZiPS and Steamer are very, very close in their ERA projections. ESPN is overboard in the opposite direction.

The projections for Zamora leave me with a lot of hope for him this season. Let’s see what he does in the minors first.

Mets baseball is back!

For the first time in a while the Mets turned over their roster quite a bit as there are a number of players who could be making their orange and blue debuts today. The NL East is going to be competitive this year with 4 of 5 teams actively working towards a win now mindset. It’s difficult to say with a straight face that games in April matter, but 16 of the first 18 games the Mets play are against the NL East and the first 9 games are against the Nationals and the Marlins. This should feel familiar if you followed the Mets this spring: since 3/15 the Mets have faced the Marlins and Nationals 7 times.

Not only is it Opening Day, it’s also deGrom day! Jacob deGrom is coming off of one of the best seasons I’ve ever witness a pitcher have in a Mets uniform (I’m 30 if that helps you figure out who I’ve seen and haven’t seen). Last year he went 10-9 over 32 starts and 217.0 innings posting a 1.70 ERA (league leading), 216 ERA+ (league leading), 1.99 FIP (league leading) and a 0.912 WHIP. He also led the league in HR/9 at 0.4. Another fun fact: he ended last year at 269 strikeouts putting him at exactly 1000 K’s in his career. The newly extended deGrom faced the Nationals 3 times last year totaling 20.1 innings allowing 6 runs, 5 earned from 13 hits and 5 walks (2.21 ERA). The Nationals have the following numbers against Jacob:

• Anthony Rendon 2-23, 2B, 6 BB, 7 K
• Ryan Zimmerman 5-24, 2 HR, 8 K
• Howie Kendrick 2-26, 6 K
• Trea Turner 7-25, 2B, HR, BB, 10 K
• Michael A. Taylor 1-24, 13 K
• Adam Eaton 4-10, 2 2B, 2 BB, 3 K
• Matt Adams 3-10, 3B, 4 K
• Juan Soto 1-3

Jacob deGrom last year beat Max Scherzer for the Cy Young Award, and Max will be looking for his revenge today. Max was 18-7 (league leading in wins) over 33 games and 220.2 innings (lead leaguing) striking out 300 (league leading). He posted a 2.53 ERA, 168 ERA+, 2.65 FIP and a 0.911 WHIP (league leading). Last year he faced the Mets twice, allowing 6 runs over 14.0 innings from 10 hits and 4 walks while striking out 18. The Mets posted the highest ERA (3.86) against Max than any other NL East team, but the Mets also faced him the least amount of times last year. The Mets have the following numbers against him:

• Michael Conforto 8-23, 4 HR, 3 BB, 8 K
• Robinson Cano 3-18, HR, 2 BB, 6 K
• Brandon Nimmo 2-13, HR, 2 BB, 8 K
• Juan Lagares 1-13, BB, 9 K
• Wilson Ramos 1-8
• Amed Rosario 2-6, 2B
• Jeff McNeil 1-3, 2B, 2 K
• Keon Broxton 1-1, HR

Let’s Go Mets!

Happy Opening Day! We’ll get to a game preview and everything else for the best of the day of the year a little bit later. Right now, we are still trying to finish our annual projection meta-analysis series where we look at 5 different projections for players on and not-on-yet the Mets roster this season.

Today we look at a new lefty in the Mets pen – Justin Wilson. Wilson made his debut with the Pirates at age 24 in 2012 and stayed with the Pirates until after the 2014 season where he was traded to the Yankees for Francisco Cervelli. The following year he was traded to the Tigers for Luis Cessa and Chad Green. He was traded again on the 2017 trade deadline to the Chicago Cubs where he played last season.

2018: 54.2 IP, 3.46 ERA, 3.64 FIP, 1.427 WHIP, 11.4 K/9, 0.7 WAR, 4.65 DRA
Career: 3.33 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 1.268 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 3.91 DRA

Wilson was signed as lefty veteran for the Mets pen. When he signed the only lefty on the Mets roster was Daniel Zamora (who gets his projection tomorrow). Now the Mets flex both Wilson and Luis Avilan who made the team on an NRI (his projection the day after tomorrow).

Here’s how Wilson is projected for 2019:

(Citations: Baseball Prospectus (BP) projections are from the Baseball Prospectus annual which can you can get here. It’s highly recommended. ESPN projections can be found here. ZiPS can be found here. Steamer can be found here. Baseball Reference projections (BR) can found on the players BR page which linked elsewhere on this article. )

With the exception of ZiPS and ESPN, most projections have him regressing from his career numbers. That makes sense for ESPN who generally overproject veteran stats. ZiPS has a good track record though so maybe they see something in Wilson that everyone else is missing. ZiPS and Steamer are rarely this far apart. At the end of the season, this profile will be an interesting one to go back to to see a difference in the ZiPS and Steamer projection engines. Finally, it’s not surprising at all to see the regression on BP and BR, as they tend to be the most conservative of the projection programs.