213 Miles From Shea

The Mets overhauled their bullpen this off-season bringing in Edwin Diaz, Jeurys Familia and Justin Wilson on major league deals and Luis Avilan (among others) on minor league deals. The flurry of action didn’t put Lugo or Gsellman in risk of losing their spot but has put Zamora, Sewald, Bashlor, Oswalt, Smith and Rhame into competition for the remaining spots. (Many of the players just named who have already been assigned to minor league camp or in the case of Smith out for the year from TJ).

Tyler Bashlor was assigned to minor league came yesterday, which makes sense. He was a rookie last year and so far in Spring he has allowed 5 runs over 7.0 innings. With all of the arms the Mets have, it doesn’t necessarily make sense to break camp with him. There is a strong chance, almost inevitable chance, that he comes up to Queens at some point.

2018 (Also Career): 32 IP, 4.22 ERA, 5.44 FIP, 1.188 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 0.1 WAR, 5.68 DRA

He had a good rookie campaign. Didn’t blow anyone away but didn’t see completely lost out on the mound. For the most part, projections were struggling with his playing time:

(Citations: Baseball Prospectus (BP) projections are from the Baseball Prospectus annual which can you can get here. It’s highly recommended. ESPN projections can be found here. ZiPS can be found here. Steamer can be found here. Baseball Reference projections (BR) can found on the players BR page which linked elsewhere on this article. )

Hold ZiPS aside because they don’t worry about playing time – most of the projections have Bashlor getting about the same amount of innings as he did last year, so probably a call up later in the season. Nothing about it is too crazy or different than 2018 outside of an FIP that matches his ERA better. The only projection that seems cool on him is BP which generally is the most conservative when it comes to projections anyway.

Happy Pi Day! The Mets are one game below .500 in games that don’t matter as they head to the Cardinals today. Yesterday Cano hit a pie in the sky homer that went way out and provided the only runs as the Mets beat the Astros 2-1. While Cano’s strength was notable, the real apple (pie) of my eye went to Noah Syndergaard. He made mince meat (pie) of the Astros lineup allowing 2 hits and 2 walks over 5.2 innings while striking out 5 lowering his spring ERA to 1.88.

In yesterday’s game preview we noted how good of a Spring Seth Lugo was having. Generally this year that has been a kiss of death for the player that day. Not for Lugo. He tossed two scoreless innings striking out three and lowering his Spring ERA to 1.04. The lefty competition for the bullpen continues to heat up like the fight for pumpkin pie at the Thanksgiving table with Avilan bouncing back for his poor outing earlier in the week and pitching a clean inning yesterday.

So the Mets are now two weeks away from Opening Day and I’m pretty much out of pie jokes, or attempted pie jokes to continue. Let’s take a look at today’s lineup:

Mets Lineup:

1. Jeff McNeil (LF)
2. Juan Lagares (CF)
3. Robinson Cano (2B)
4. Michael Conforto (RF)
5. Pete Alonso (1B)
6. Travis d’Arnaud (C)
7. Luis Guillorme (SS)
8. Adeiny Hechavarria (3B)
9. Zack Wheeler (P)

Starting Pitcher: Zack Wheeler

Things to Watch for:

1. Zack Wheeler makes his 4th spring training start, aiming for 5-6 innings of work today. So far he has allowed 5 runs, 3 earned, over 6.2 innings.
2. We are starting to get to that point in the spring where pitchers have to hit! There’s a possibility that the DH leaves the NL sometime in the next few seasons so this moment in spring could soon become a relic.
3. Travis d’Arnaud is making the next significant step in his rehab, starting a game at catcher.
4. After his homer yesterday, Robinson Cano is now hitting .423/.464/.692 this Spring over 28 PA’s. Small sample size (would reduce to about 7 games worth of PAs), but still impressive.
5. Yesterday was a good bounce back day for Avilan. Wilson and Zamora go today. I would expect the Mets to carry two lefties. Avilan has an NRI and Wilson signed a contract with significant monetary value so at this point Zamora, despite having a roster spot, might be on the outside looking in to getting on the 25-man.

Let’s Go Mets!

For the last three or so weeks we’ve been looking at projections for every hitter who is or could be on the Mets roster this year and now we are going to switch gears and look at pitchers. Some of the pitchers we are going to look at over the next three weeks have already be assigned to minor league camp but since there is still a possibility of them coming up to the Mets this year, we’ll still cover them.

Jacob deGrom is coming off of one of the best seasons I’ve ever seen a pitcher put together:

2018: 217 IP, 1.70 ERA, 1.99 FIP, 0.912 WHIP, 11.2 K/9, 9.6 WAR, 2.09 DRA
Career: 2.67 ERA, 2.81 FIP, 1.072 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 2.64 DRA

Last year deGrom was projected to be good, but he was projected to be around as good as he was in previous years. It’s really hard to explain how good his stats were last year. To keep an ERA that far below 2 all year and WHIP that far below 1 but still pitch over 200 innings? Astounding!

It’s obvious that computers don’t project him to repeat that line, but how does his projected line compare to his career?

(Citations: Baseball Prospectus (BP) projections are from the Baseball Prospectus annual which can you can get here. It’s highly recommended. ESPN projections can be found here. ZiPS can be found here. Steamer can be found here. Baseball Reference projections (BR) can found on the players BR page which linked elsewhere on this article. )

It looks like he is projected to be right around where he normally is. Everyone except BP decided to go with projections that were friendlier to his 2018 campaign success, BP kept their projection line in line with their projection for the year before.

It’s an absolute treat to watch deGrom pitch, and tomorrow we follow up with a pitcher with very different projections – Tyler Bashlor.

Yesterday was a game the Mets would like to forget as they lost to the Marlins 8-1 after allowing 6 runs between the 7th and 8th inning. For the most part, the offense was silent yesterday except two hits by Dominic Smith raising his average to .433 and his OPS to 1.100 and a double by Rajai Davis. The lineup yesterday was a very much a spring away game despite being midway through spring as a lot of the regular hitters stayed home in St. Lucie. Jacob went 5.0 innings allowing 2 runs on 6 hits. Things really started to fall apart for the Mets when Bashlor got up. He allowed 4 runs on 5 hits in an inning of work.

Today, could easily be the Opening Day Lineup, minus Keon Broxton and with Jacob deGrom hitting. This is the closest lineup the Mets have had yet to a starting lineup, and that’s exciting! We’re only two weeks away!

Mets Lineup:

1. Brandon Nimmo (LF)
2. Jeff McNeil (3B)
3. Robinson Cano (2B)
4. Wilson Ramos (C)
5. Michael Conforto (RF)
6. Pete Alonso (3)
7. Keon Broxton (CF)
8. Amed Rosario (SS)
9. Juan Lagares (DH)

Starting Pitcher: Noah Syndergaard

What To Watch For:

1. Noah Syndergaard will make his 4th start of spring today. So far he has pitched 8.2 innings allowing 5 runs, 3 earned off 8 hits and 5 walks. His WHIP is high in this small sample size at 1.5 but he also struck out an impressive 14. The Mets pushed Jacob through 5 innings yesterday so we can assume they’ll do the same for Syndergaard today.
2. Brandon Nimmo is slowly getting back into the rythem of spring. In 26 PA’s he’s now hitting .292/.308/.417
3. When I’m feeling down, I look at Wilson Ramos’ spring numbers. He’s hitting .364/.417/.500 in 24 PAs. That feels great!
4. If this was a regular season game and there was a pitcher in the lineup, I disagree with batting Rosario at 8th. His spring numbers agree with that hitting .412/.500/.882 in 20 PAs.
5. Seth Lugo has quietly put together a nice spring training so far. In 6.2 innings over 5 games he has allowed 4 runs but only 1 earned from 5 hits and a walk while striking out 8. That’s a 1.35 ERA and a 0.9 WHIP

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets made a late signing of Adeiny Hechavarria to a minor league deal this year with an invite to spring training. Hechavarria has never been known for his offense but is a defense super star. What the Mets didn’t know at the time is Lowrie and Fraizer would both be nursing injuries this late into camp and what seemed like a long shot for Hechavarria may become a reality.

So far this spring he has not impressed offensively posting a .286 OBP. Here are his numbers from last year:

2018: 274 PA, 253 AB, 5 HR, .249/.279/.336, 0.8 WAR, 89 DRC+
Career: .254/.290/.345, 78 DRC+

Computers project these numbers for 2019:

(Citations: Baseball Prospectus (BP) projections are from the Baseball Prospectus annual which can you can get here. It’s highly recommended. ESPN projections can be found here. Steamer can be found here. Baseball Reference projections (BR) can found on the players BR page which linked elsewhere on this article. )

It looks like from the average line that Adeiny is projected to have a slightly better season then average, but when you look at the numbers, Steamer and BR have him below average for the season, ESPN right around average and BP way above average. This is noteworthy: BP is usually the conservative, wet blanket on player projections and are rarely this different in a positive way for the player. I’m not sure what if any thing to make of it but it is interesting.

After two straight days of winning by huge margins, the Mets took a step back to reality yesterday with a 6-3 loss to the Astros. There are still bright spots to celebrate though! Nimmo had a 3 hit game and Mesoraco had a 2 hit game (he’s been struggling to get it going this spring). Vargas pitched 4.0 shutout innings allowing only 3 hits, no walks while striking out 3 dropping his Spring ERA to a 1.08. Lugo also put a scoreless inning. Yesterday was also the first time all spring that Avilan struggled, allowing 2 runs off 4 hits in an inning of work.

Outside of the game, the Mets optioned Walker Lockett and Corey Oswalt, who were both long shots to make the team, to minor league camp. Oswalt had a particularly positive spring and moved up the starting depth chart. The team also announced that Drew Smith would need Tommy John, which gives another possible spot for players trying to break into the pen.

Mets Lineup:

1. Jeff McNeil (DH)
2. Juan Lagares (CF)
3. Dominic Smith (1B)
4. Wilson Ramos (C)
5. JD Davis (3B)
6. Rajai Davis (LF)
7. Gregor Blanco (RF)
8. Adeiny Hechavarria (SS)
9. Danny Espinosa (2B)

Starting Pitcher: Jacob deGrom

What To Watch For:

1. This will be the second start for Jacob deGrom with Ramos catching. So far deGrom has pitched 7.0 innings over 3 games allowing 3 runs from 5 hits and 2 walks. He has struck out 9 in this stretch. How long deGrom goes today will give us an idea how long all of the starters will go their next time through the lineup.
2. If the Mets go with McNeil in the infield, than barring something unseen (like a trade), Lagares will be the Opening Day Centerfielder. In 9 games and 29 PAs this spring he has hit .214/.241/.286.
3. Broxton has the 5th starting spot but he is still facing competition from Blanco and Rajai Davis. Blanco is hitting .160/.250/.240 over 28 PAs. Davis is hitting .278/.364/.611 in 22 PAs this spring.
4. JD Davis is having a good spring and is fighting to get on the 25 man, possibly the OD thirdbase based on Fraizer/Lowrie and if McNeil goes back to the outfield (contigent on Davis blowing up and starts demolishing the ball). In 39 PAs he’s hitting .306/.359/.444.
5. Luis Avilan has essentially pitched himself on to this team. Yesterday was his first blip in a spotless couple of weeks of pitching. Wilson and Zamora are still battling and have roster spots which Avilan does not. Justin Wilson signed a major league deal and has allowed 5 runs over 4.0 innings. Zamora has allowed 4 runs over 4.0 innings from 7 hits and 3 walks.

Let’s Go Mets!

At the start of spring training, it looked like a sure bet that Pete Alonso would start the season in the minors, despite members of the Mets front office saying they would take the best 25 players up north with them. The Mets still had Frazier on the roster and just signed Jed Lowrie, creating logjams all over the infield.

However Frazier hasn’t played in a game this spring. Jed Lowrie hasn’t played in a game this spring. To compensate the Mets will most likely have to move Jeff McNeil back to the infield and there is still a hole at first base. Dominic Smith is having a terrific spring training. However Dominic Smith seems to be the unluckiest player in the world because despite him having a terrific spring, Pete Alonso is having an even better one.

2018 Minors: 574 PA, 478 AB, 36 HR, .285/.395/.579
Career: .290/.381/.560

Alonso destroyed the baseball last year and there were opportunities late in the season to get him playing time and experience coming into this year, but the Mets played the service time game that they may be playing right now. Here are how the major projections sites see Alonso performing in the majors:

(Citations: Baseball Prospectus (BP) projections are from the Baseball Prospectus annual which can you can get here. It’s highly recommended. ESPN projections can be found here. ZiPS can be found here. Steamer can be found here. )

ZiPS and Steamer are awfully close to each other everywhere except WAR, which I’m assuming is difficult to predict for a player with 0 service time anyway. BP is close to them, but a little more hesitant. ESPN, which usually jumps in the direction of more offense is the most shy on Alonso.

Most of these projections do not having playing a full season, or have him getting at least one day off per week if he starts the season with the team. In that scenario 20ish homers seems about right. However if he crosses 525 PA’s, that number should closer to 25 homers following the projection patterns. That would be huge!

Let’s see what happens. Alonso’s first hurdle is the Mets brass.

The Mets improved to .500 yesterday, but that doesn’t matter. What does matter: for a second straight day the Mets looked to be firing on all cylinders with their offense flowing and their pitching stiffing.

Yesterday d’Arnaud, Rosario and McNeil all hit homers. Travis needed it as he is deep in a roster fight right now. Rosario was coming back from an injury and showed that he could pick up where he left off. Jeff was playing third today for the first time this spring. Since 2 of his 3 hits are homers, he has has a .231 BA but a .923 OPS (Small Sample Size Fun). Matz was dominate tossing 4.0 scoreless innings allowing 3 hits and a walk. Gsellman bounced back with with a scoreless outing. Wilson had a scoreless outing (finally!). For the second straight day it was good to look at the Mets box score.

Mets Lineup:

1. Brandon Nimmo (CF)
2. Jeff McNeil (3B)
3. Robinson Cano (2B)
4. Michael Conforto (RF)
5. Pete Alonso (1B)
6. Danny Espinosa (DH)
7. Gregor Blanco (LF)
8. Devin Mesoraco (C)
9. Amed Rosario (SS)

Starting Pitching: Jason Vargas

Other Things To Watch For:

1. Through Amed Rosario’s 6 games and 17 PA’s, he’s hitting .500/.588/1.071. Obvisously a small sample size.
2. This afternoon is Jeff McNeilk’s second game at third base signaling that the Mets are preparing to open the season without Frazier and without Lowrie. At some point the Mets will have to signal who the next outfielder to replace McNeil will be. We can assume right now it’s Lagares
3. Jason Vargas will get his third start of spring today. So far he has allowed 1 run off 5 hits and 2 walks in 4.1 innings. Following the pattern of other starters, its safe to assume the Mets will try to get him about 4 innings of work today.
4. Luis Avilan is listed as available out of the pen today and is having a spring that should be heading towards a roster spot. He’s pitched 5.2 innings in 5 games this year without allowing any runs and striking out 7.
5. Alonso is still smashing the baseball this spring with a .414/.469/.828 line over 32 PA’s and 10 games. That’s tremendous.

Let’s Go Mets!

It’s March 11th and the Mets still haven’t resolved their catcher situation yet, which I guess makes sense. Wilson Ramos will definitely be the starting catcher. It’s still unclear if the Mets will go with Devin Mesoraco or Travis d’Arnaud, who is still sorta rehabbing but getting into more games now as the back up catcher. Travis d’Arnaud is the offensive threat, Jacob deGrom is comfortable throwing to Mesoraco.

The Mets acquired Mesoraco in a early/mid-season trade for Matt Harvey. Devin did alright as a Met as the Mets just needed someone who could catch and be in the lineup reliably.

2018: 274 PA, 244 AB, 11 HR, .221/.303/.398, 0.6 WAR, 99 DRC+
Career: .232/.309/.406, 100 DRC+

From looking at his career line, Devin, according to DRC+ is a remarkably average player. Like exactly average. Here’s how computers project him:

(Citations: Baseball Prospectus (BP) projections are from the Baseball Prospectus annual which can you can get here. It’s highly recommended. ESPN projections can be found here. ZiPS can be found here. Steamer can be found here. Baseball Reference projections (BR) can found on the players BR page which linked elsewhere on this article. )

The average of the projections has Mesoraco getting on base at a similar clip and showing less power in 2019 which matches the trajectory of his career to this point. ESPN is really down on him, but ESPN was struggling to project playing time. ZiPS was also down on him, and they don’t really factor playing time.

Interestingly, BP is the most positive for his On Base Percentage, and they tend to be the most conservative of all of the projections we look at.

It’s still very unclear what the Mets are going to do with the catching situation right now. My gut tells me they are waiting / hoping for a team to get into a desperate situation and call them with a trade proposal. Or they could carry 3 catchers on their roster, which is a very Mets thing to do.

By now you’ve probably heard about the homer Pete Alonso hit yesterday. If you haven’t: it was his third of the spring, it went over the Green Monster South, it landed outside the ballpark, it was super impressive.

Yesterday’s Spring Training game just felt good for the Mets. They won 10-2 off 15 hits against the Red Sox with two hit performances by Nimmo, Alonso, JD Davis (actually 3 hits), Liriano and Guillorme (who continues to have an excellent spring, OPS is now at 1.187). Wheeler shut the Red Sox down for 4.0 innings only allowing a hit, Bashlor did the same thing for 2.0 innings behind him, and Rhame did the same thing for 1.0 innings behind him. Then there is Tim Peterson who is quietly having a dominant spring allowing no runs, no hits and a walk through 4.1 innings with 6 strikeouts. Things looked good for the Mets. Let’s see if they keep looking good today:

Mets Lineup:

1. Brandon Nimmo (LF)
2. Jeff McNeil (3B)
3. Robinson Cano (1B)
4. Michael Conforto (RF)
5. Wilson Ramos (C)
6. Pete Alonso (DH)
7. Dominic Smith (1B)
8. Juan Lagares (CF)
9. Amed Rosario (SS)

Starting Pitcher: Steven Matz

Things To Watch For:

1. A couple of days ago the Mets said they would start to split Jeff McNeil’s time in the outfield and in the infield and we see that today with Jeff getting a start at third base.
2. In two starts and 4.2 innings this spring, Matz has allowed 8 hits and 5 runs leading to a WHIP of 2.143 and an ERA of 9.64. Obviously small sample size. If he follows the trend from other starters this week, goal will be to get him about 4.0 innings of work today.
3. In 19 PA’s across 7 games Ramos has hit .444/.474/.611. It’s just nice to read a line like that from a catcher.
4. With all of the NRI’s competing for time in the infield and Amed getting hit by a pitch on his hand, Amed has only been in 5 games this spring. During those 5 he has come up to the plate 15 times and has a .462/.533/.846 line.
5. Edwin Diaz is listed as available today. In his three spring games he has pitched 3.0 innings allowing 2 hits and 2 walks while striking out 3.

Let’s Go Mets!