What a weekend in New York! The Knicks are NBA champions! The World Cup! The Puerto Rico Day Parade! And the Mets!
The Mets will try to shake off yesterday’s game where the offense could not get anything going against the Braves and lost 3-1. With the Knicks winning last night everything can be different! Or maybe the Braves will just be sleep deprived from last night’s party!
The Mets need Freddy Peralta today to be the Freddy Peralta we know he can be. In 14 starts, 78 innings, Peralta has a 4.04 ERA, 4.13 FIP, 1.321 WHIP and a 102 ERA+. His last start was rough, allowing six runs against the Cardinals over six innings. In his last four starts he has allowed 15 runs over 23 2/3 innings (5.70 ERA). There have been positive moments, like striking out 25 batters in that stretch, and real downsides like allowing four home runs. The Braves have the following career stats against Peralta:
- Ozzie Albies 1-16, 2 2B, 3 BB, 3 K
- Michael Harris II 1-4, 2 K
- Ha-Seong Kim 0-2, BB
- Sandy Leon 0-1, K
- Jorge Mateo 0-2, K
- Matt Olson 3-11, 2B, HR< 3 BB, 2 K
- Austin Riley 7-16, 2B, 2 HR, BB, 2 K
- Dominic SMith 2-5, 2 K
- Rowdy Tellez 0-2, BB, 2 K
- Eli White 1-2, HR
- Mike Yastrzemski 1-9, 2B, 2 K
Bryce Elder has made 14 starts, 84 2/3 innings, with a 2.66 ERA, 3.46 FIP, 1.051 WHIP and a 151 ERA+. In his last three starts he has allowed 11 runs, 10 earned, over 16 innings with a 5.63 ERA, 4.10 FIP. This is mostly due to a start against the Red Sox at the end of May where he allowed six runs, five earned, in 3 1/3 innings. The Mets have the following numbers against Elder:
- Francisco Alvarez 0-2
- Brett Baty 1-9, BB, 4 K
- Bo Bichette 1-3
- MJ Melendez 0-2, BB
- Marcus Semien 0-4
- Juan Soto 3-7, HR, 2 BB
- Luis Torrens 1-4
- Mark Vientos 1-3, HR, K
- Eric Wagaman 2-3, K
Three Things To Watch For:
- Bichette & Soto. Bo Bichette and Juan Soto stayed consistent at the top of the lineup yesterday, despite the Mets around them flailing. Together they went 4-for-8 with two doubles (although it should have been one double and one home run). Bichette has now gone 5-for-11 with a double and three home runs over his last three games. Juan Soto has gone 6-for-11 with two doubles and two home runs. If the Mets can take today’s game, it’s going to be because of Bichette and Soto.
- Bryce’s Slider. Bryce Elder does generate quite a lot of hard hits, he’s about middle of the league in hard-hit%. It’s been difficult hitters for to barrel him up, a lot of this is due to his slider. He throws his slider 28.5% of the time, more than any other pitch. It has a .173 BA and .183 xBA, the best out of all his pitches he throws more than 10% of the time. His slider also has the highest K% of any of pitches (29.9%). The Mets will need to find a way to lay off of it.
- Flashing more power. Over the last week or so the Mets have started to hit more home runs, especially Bo Bichette and Juan Soto. The team now has 74 home runs on the season, with is good for 18th in the league. For a while the Mets were way down the bottom of the of league. The Mets finished 5th in the league last year and 6th before that. Bryce Elder has done a good job keeping the ball in the park this season, reducing his HR/9 to 0.7 after two consecutive seasons at 1.4.
Let’s Go Mets!
