2019 Mets Conglomerate Projections: Robert Gsellman

Robert Gsellman debuted when the 2016 Mets desperately needed another starter and he was a key reason why the Mets went on a run to close out 2016 with enough wins to get a wild card spot.

Last year, with the specter of the big four being able to pitch together + Jason Vargas at the top of the rotation, Gsellman and Lugo were pushed to the bullpen. On the whole this was a tremendously positive move for both of them and the Mets have committed all spring to keeping both in the bullpen this season.

2018: 80 IP, 4.28 ERA, 3.95 FIP, 1.300 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, -0.3 WAR, 4.38 DRA
Career: 4.38 ERA, 4.17 FIP, 1.396 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 5.03 DRA

In every category listed above, Gsellman did better last season. The hope is that trend continues with his second year of consistent bullpen use. The computers see Gsellman putting up these numbers:

(Citations: Baseball Prospectus (BP) projections are from the Baseball Prospectus annual which can you can get here. It’s highly recommended. ESPN projections can be found here. ZiPS can be found here. Steamer can be found here. Baseball Reference projections (BR) can found on the players BR page which linked elsewhere on this article. )

For the most part, the computers agree! They think with the extra year of age and consistency of role he’s going to put up better numbers than he did last year. Baseball Reference is predicting nearly an identical line (which for a reliever I would count as an improvement rather than a step backwards). I actually don’t remember the last time I saw this many projections agree that a reliever will do better. This is exciting!

Consistent, positive results from Lugo, Gsellman, Familia and Diaz would mean a lot for this team this season, let’s see what happens!

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