The most important bat the Mets have this year is Michael Conforto. He could break out and become an MVP candidate. He could struggle like he did early in the season last year and the Mets get off to a rocky start. However he plays will be how the Mets go.
2018: 638 PA, 543 AB, 28 HR, .243/.350/.448, 2.9 WAR, 112 DRC+
From July 20th On: .273/.356/.539
Career: .251/.349/.476, 113 DRC+
The second half of the season Conforto turned a page and started to smack the cover off the baseball becoming the player we all expected him to be. If he puts a full season of hitting like that he could easily become an MVP. Let’s take a look at how computers expect him to perform this year:
(Citations: Baseball Prospectus (BP) projections are from the Baseball Prospectus annual which can you can get here. It’s highly recommended. ESPN projections can be found here. ZiPS can be found here. Steamer can be found here. Baseball Reference projections (BR) can found on the players BR page which linked elsewhere on this article. )
All of the projections that produce WAR stats see him becoming a top WAR player for the Mets. BP sees him increasing 10 points on DRC+ which is not common at all. ESPN has him breaking the 30 homer plateau.
He’s looked great so far in spring training (knock on wood) and seems incredibly confident. I don’t want to pontificate on the projection numbers too much because they are joy to comb through. Look through! Let your mind dream of what Conforto could mean for the team this year!