2018 Stats Projection – Seth Lugo

Seth Lugo was a critical piece to the oft injured 2016 Mets team that made the Wild Card. His curve ball has a ridiculous RPM and he rode that through the end of the 2016 campaign and became the ace for Team Puerto Rico in the 2017 World Baseball Classic. Then the injuries happened and his numbers returned to Earth in 2017, when the Mets needed aces in the rotation.

Coming into this season, Lugo’s roll was uncertain. Does he start? He does he fit in with an injured Vargas, a struggling Matz and a Wheeler with a disastrous spring? Mother nature so far this season has prevented a Lugo start but he has been tremendous out of the pen. Let’s take a look at what the projections models think:

Seth Lugo
Source Innings ERA FIP WHIP K BB K/BB K/9
Baseball Prospectus 91 4.31 1.35 81 8.010989
ZiPS 199.7 4.89 4.7 98 32 3.0625 4.416625
Steamer 71 4.35 4.34 1.31 59 20 2.95 7.478873
ESPN 95 5.12 1.41 80 30 2.666667 7.578947
MLB.com 95 4.26 1.32 94 42 2.238095 8.905263
Baseball Reference 109 4.21 1.312 94 34 2.764706 7.761468
Average: 110.1167 4.523333 4.52 1.3404 84.33333 31.6 2.736394 7.358694
2017 Stats: 101.3 4.71 3.95 1.372 85 25 3.4 7.551826

These projections are pretty close to last year’s. They don’t see Lugo going back to his amazing 2016, but they see him pitching a lot like last year. Most of the projections see Lugo as a starter thought. Similar to Gsellman, I think it’s safe to assume that his stats get a lot better in a relief roll as his time on the mound decrease.

A Lugo with that devastating curve out of the pen could be a great change of pace from the flame throwing style of most baseball bullpens now.

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