We wrapped up all the pitcher projections and now we can move on to the hitters!
There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Jay Bruce:
Jay Bruce. The subject of frustration for many Mets fans this off-season. It’s been repeated all over the place this off-season that Jay Bruce is the poster child for the old school vs new school debates on how to tell if a player is a star or not. He’s consistently a 30 home run guy! he also has a poor average and a poor on base percentage. Plus, he’s blocking Michael Conforto.
The projections see his power taking a step back, but not his playing time. It’s going to be interesting to see how Terry handles Bruce this season. This is being written on 3/14, so answer is not clear yet.
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)
Article Written on 3/14, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data