So far we have discussed projections for the other two-thirds of the Mets closers tandem in Familia and Mejia, today we’ll cover over the final piece, Bobby Parnell. He was positioned to have a critical season last year but after one game he needed to go under the knife leading the Mets to go through Valverde, Farnsworth before finally using Familia and Mejia. Parnell, who has recently started to throw off the mound, should be back somewhere between May and June. He expects to come back as the closer.
2013 Stats: 5-5, 22 SV, 49 G, 50 IP, 44 K, 12 BB, 1.00 WHIP, 2.16 ERA
Let’s see what the computers think Parnell will be able to do in 2015:
PECOTA (BP): 2-1, 15 SV, 40 G, 39.2 IP, 37 K, 11 BB, 1.14 WHIP, 2.97 ERA
PECOTA (MLB.com): 2-2, 3 SV, 40 IP, 38 K, 12 BB, 1.15 WHIP, 3.15 ERA
MLB.com: 2-2, 14 SV, 42 IP, 34 K, 14 BB, 1.29 WHIP, 3.49 ERA
ZiPS: 47 G, 44.2 IP, 37 K, 13 BB, 3.43 ERA
Steamer: 3-3, 10 SV, 65 G, 65 IP, 60 K, 21 BB, 3.37 ERA
ESPN: 2-3, 27 SV, 46 K, 1.10 WHIP, 2.52 ERA
Average: 2.2-2.2, 13.8 SV, 50.7 G, 46 IP, 42 K, 14.2 BB, 1.17 WHIP, 3.16 ERA
For the most part, the computers predict a large regression in terms of ERA, and a modest one in WHIP, which after TJ surgery, is quite fine. If Parnell ended up putting that average line up, with Mejia and Familia, I’d be stoked. It is also interesting to see which computers have Parnell coming back as the full time closer, which ones have him taking on a moderate to heavy size load, and which ones step it back a bit.