213 Miles From Shea

The Mets got an amazing start from Kodai Senga last night and did nothing with it. Senga allowed only one run on a solo homer over six innings while striking out nine. The bullpen behind him self-destructed and the offense didn’t show up. Now the Mets find themselves this afternoon fighting to avoid being swept. Can they snap their four game losing streak?

Max Scherzer looks to get the Mets on the right track this afternoon as he takes on his old club. Over 16 starts, 87 2/3 innings, Scherzer has a 4.31 ERA, 4.53 FIP, 1.232 WHIP and a 96 ERA+. He’s had a rough July, allowing nine runs over 11 innings from 11 hits and five walks. While he has struck 16 batters out, he’s also allowed five homers. He’s now allowed a homer in seven consecutive starts and he’s allowed a total of 11 homers in that same stretch (5.63 ERA). The Dodgers have the following career numbers against him:

• Freddie Freeman 11-49, 4 2B, 3 HR, 7 BB, 13 K
• Miguel Rojas 9-35, 3 2B, HR, 3 BB, 5 K
• David Peralta 6-21, 2 2B, 2 BB, 5 K
• Jason Heyward 5-18, 2B, 2 BB, 3 K
• Max Muncy 4-13, HR, 4 BB, 4 K
• Chris Taylor 2-12, 2B, 3B, BB, 7 K
• J.D. Martinez 2-11, 2 HR, BB, 5 K
• Austin Barnes 1-11, 7 K
• Mookie Betts 1-5, 2B, BB

The Mets bats look to build off the four hits they’ve had in the last two games against Dodgers’ rookie Bobby Miller. Miller has pitched 44 innings over eight starts with a 4.50 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 1.227 WHIP and a 98 ERA+. In his last four starts he has allowed 20 earned runs from 27 hits and eight walks over 21 innings (8.57 ERA, 5.37 FIP). In his four starts before that he allowed only two runs over 23 innings. Which Bobby Miller will the Mets get today?

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Brandon Nimmo. The Mets as a team have had four collective hits since returning from the All-Star break and Brandon Nimmo has two of then. He had the sole hit, a double, in Friday night’s game and he had the sole RBI in yesterday’s game, hitting a solo homer. He can’t do it alone and the Mets right now can do nothing without him.
2. Max Scherzer. Are the Mets buyers? Are the Mets sellers? Everything depends on Max Scherzer. If the Mets are going to make a run for the Wild Card, they need Max Scherzer to be vintage Max. If things fall apart for the Mets, they need Max to be vintage Max so he can net the most possible prospects in a trade. Everything depends on Max. He was originally supposed to pitch yesterday, but a neck issue pushed him back to today.
3. Can the bullpen get it together? Trevor Gott. Brooks Raley. Despite the Mets using seven different bullpen arms in their last two games, only two pitches have tossed a clean inning. Yesterday Ottavino allowed a run, Hartwig allowed three total, only two earned. Robertson is the only arm that hasn’t been used yet and probably will be today regardless of the situation. The Mets need the bullpen to step up if they are going to make any sort of a run.

Let’s Go Mets!

The good news was the Mets kept the Dodgers hitless through the first four innings yesterday. Then everything fell off the rails. The Dodgers would score three runs off Verlander in the fifth inning and would eventually beat the Mets 6-0. Brandon Nimmo had the only the hit for the Mets as their losing streak extended to three games. The Mets look to bounce back tonight to force a rubber game on Sunday.

Kodai Senga returns to the mound tonight. Selected as a replacement in the All-Star game, Senga declined to pitch so he would be well rested and ready to go tonight. Senga had his last game pushed back before the All-Star break so he could get extra rest. Tonight he was pushed forward a game so Scherzer could get extra rest.

On the season Senga has made 16 starts totaling 89 2/3 innings with a 3.31 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 1.283 WHIP and a 125 ERA+. Over his last three starts he has pitched 18 1/3 innings allowing seven runs, five earned. During this stretch he has struck out an outstanding 26 batters while only walking six, his early season weakness. His last start was the best of the season where he pitched eight innings, holding the Diamondbacks to only one run while striking out 12 batters. This will be the first time he has faced the Dodgers this season.

Tony Gonsolin makes his 14th start of the season tonight. Over 67 2/3 innings he has a 3.86 ERA, 4.64 FIP, 1.123 WHIP and a 113 ERA+. Things have not been great for Tony over his last four starts where he has allowed four earned runs in three of them, and seven earned runs in the other. This totals up to 19 runs over 21 innings (8.14 ERA, 5.47 FIP). The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Starling Marte 0-7
• Tommy Pham 1-6, 2B, 3 K
• Daniel Vogelbach 0-3, BB, 2 K
• Luis Guillorme 1-3, K
• Brandon Nimmo 0-3, K
• Pete Alonso 0-2, K
• Mark Canha 0-2
• Jeff McNeil 0-1, BB
• Omar Narváez 0-1, BB, K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Bullpen usage – already. The Mets had to use four arms last night to finish out the game (Peterson, Gott, Leone, and Smith). The Mets didn’t need to use their two big arms in Ottavino and Robertson, but it stinks to be one game into the second half of the season, already use a chunk of the bullpen, and for three of those four pitches to have rough-ish outings.
2. Can the Mets rack up some hits tonight? The last time the Mets faced Gonsolin was June 2022 and Gonsolin was able to hold the Mets to just two hits and a walk in a game the Dodgers won 6-0. One of those two hits was by a plyer who isn’t even on the Mets anymore (J.D. Davis).
3. Kodai Senga’s advanced stats reflect his improvement. If you go to Kodai’s Baseball Savant page, you’ll see that his xwOBA has improved over his last 100 PA’s. This has been true since mid-to-late June. After last night, the Mets are really going to need Senga to be at his best to help jump start the club.

Let’s Go Mets

The Mets return to Queens tonight to kick off the second half of the season. Right now the Mets are six games under .500 after dropping the last two against the Padres. They are 18.5 games back in the division and 7.0 games back in the Wild Card. Currently the Marlins, Diamondbacks and Giants have the three wild card spots. In between the Mets and the third spot are the Phillies, Brewers, Padres and Cubs. A good weekend against the Dodgers can put the Mets closer to a buy mode. A terrible weekend can put the Mets closer to a sell mode. There’s a lot at stake – let’s go!

Justin Verlander starts things off for the Mets tonight. Over 12 starts, 70 innings, this season he has a 3.60 ERA, 4.00 FIP, 1.200 WHIP and a 115 ERA+. He’s coming off of a solid start against the Padres where he allowed three runs, two earned, over six innings from five hits. In his last three starts he has allowed four runs total, two earned, over 18 innings (1.00 ERA) despite allowing 15 hits and six walks. The Dodgers have the following career numbers against Verlander:

• Mookie Betts 0-16, 2 BB, 2 K
• David Peralta 2-12, HR, BB, 4 K
• J.D. Martinez 3-6, 2 K
• Trayce Thompson 0-4, 2 BB, K
• Miguel Rojas 1-5
• Austin Barnes 1-3
• Freddie Freeman 0-2
• Max Muncy 0-3, 3 K

The Mets bats draw Julio Urías tonight. Over 12 starts (64 1/3 innings), Urías has a 4.76 ERA, 4.90 FIP, 1.181 WHIP and a 92 ERA+. He is coming off a season where he led league in ERA (2.16) and ERA+ (188). Urías had a solid start before the All-Star break allowing only two runs and three hits over six innings while striking out eight. Before that he allowed 11 runs over six innings across two starts. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Tommy Pham 3-12, 2B, HR, BB, 4 K
• Starling Marte 3-12, HR, 4 K
• Brandon Nimmo 1-6, K
• Pete Alonso 1-6, K
• Mark Canha 1-2, 2 BB
• Francisco Lindor 1-2, BB
• Luis Guillorme 0-2
• Omar Narváez 0-2
• Daniel Vogelbach 0-2, 2 K
• Jeff McNeil 0-1, K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Tommy Pham’s health. Tommy Pham has been one of hottest hitters in the Mets lineup recently. He tweaked his groin before the All-Star break. Tests came back negative and because of the break he was able to get several days off in a row. The Mets don’t want to do anything though that could turn a non-serious injury into a very serious one. If he plays tonight, we’ll be looking to see what, if any, aspects of his game are impacted.
2. What does Francisco Álvarez do in the second half? Álvarez had a terrific first half of the season smacking 17 homers in 66 games. If he gets to 32 by the end of the season, he would start to break into the top 25 single-season homers by a New York Met. Currently 32 homers in the season is a three way tie between Gary Carter, Ike Davis and Robin Ventura). It’s also worth noting that Francisco Lindor is on pace this season to join this list!
3. Francisco Lindor Appreciation Time, again. Francisco Lindor, the most notable All-Star snub on the Mets, has been putting up amazing numbers this season. If you haven’t recently, check out his Baseball Savant page. He’s in top half of every category except for two (xBA where he’s exactly at the 50th percentile and Arm Strength). His spray chart shows power in all directions. He’s having a phenomenal season and the Mets will need him to come out strong in the second half.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets have a critical rubber game this afternoon against the San Diego Padres. On Friday night the Mets won a back-and-forth, extra-inning affair. Yesterday the Padres were able to score three runs early and the Mets could only muster one run in response. Now both the Padres and the Mets sit at 42-47 records. A win means going into the All-Star break only four games below .500. A win means a chance to be buyers at the deadline. A loss makes that door close ever so slightly more on the season.

Max Scherzer has pitched 82 2/3 innings over 15 games this season with a 4.03 ERA, 4.36 FIP, 1.198 WHIP and a 103 ERA+. He’s coming off of a start where he allowed three homers, leading to four runs over six innings. Before that he allowed only five runs over 20 innings (three starts). Max had a solid start against the Padres earlier this year where he held them to one hit and no runs over five innings. The Padres have the following career numbers against Scherzer:

• Manny Machado 8-52, 2 2B, 2 HR, 21 K
• Matt Carpenter 8-33, 3 2B, BB, 12 K
• Trent Grisham 2-15, 2B, 2 BB, 5 K
• Jake Cronenworth 0-15, BB, 4 K
• Fernando Tatis Jr. 1-14, HR, 7 K
• Xander Bogaerts 2-13, 5 K
• Preston Tucker 2-8, 2B, HR, BB, 3 K
• Juan Soto 1-4, 4 BB
• Rougned Odor 1-4, BB, K
• Ha-Seong Kim 1-5, 3 K
• Gary Sánchez 0-3, 3 K

The Mets bats will try to pick themselves back up tonight against Joe Musgrove. Over 13 starts, 73 1/3 innings, Musgrove has a 3.56 ERA, 3.60 FIP, 1.200 WHIP, 115 ERA+. In his last three games he has allowed only four runs over 20 innings from 16 hits while striking out 24 batters. This is the Mets first time facing him since the Wild Card last year where Musgrove allowed one hit and one walk, no runs, over seven innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Francisco Lindor 6-17, 2 2B, 2 HR, BB, 8 K
• Omar Narváez 1-11, 2B, BB, 4 K
• Daniel Vogelbach 1-9, 2 BB, 5 K
• Pete Alonso 3-8, HR, BB, 2 K
• Starling Marte 3-9, K
• Jeff McNeil1-8, 2B, K
• Tommy Pham 2-9, HR, 2 K
• Luis Guillorme 2-7, K
• Brandon Nimmo 0-6
• Mark Canha 1-3, 2B, BB, K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Musgrove’s ear. This is mostly a joke but the last time the Mets faced Musgrove in the Wild Card series, his ear looked pretty shiny. So shiny that Buck Showalter had the umpires check his ear for an illegal substance. Both teams today are playing a game with huge implications, emotions will be high. There’s a good chance that this whole moment may be referred to on the field tonight.
2. Do the Mets act like tonight is a playoff game? Today is must win game for the Mets. A loss can crush all the positive momentum they built up in the last week. Further, they are about to go several days without playing. Do they play tonight like it’s a playoff game? Do they make tons of quick changes when things go awry?
3. How does Francisco Álvarez close out his monster first half? Over seven games this month Álvarez has hit five homers. he’s gone 11-for-26 at the plate, with seven runs scored. He’s hitting .423/.464/1.000. He’s shown us that he’s the real deal and one of the most exciting parts of this Mets team!

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets look to do a few different things tonight:

1. Win their seventh game in a row.
2. Match their win total for the entire month of June.
3. Win their third consecutive series of the season.

The Mets and Padres played a back and forth game last night. The game was tied 3-3 entering extra innings when the Mets led by Francisco Lindor took a critical four run lead. The Mets would give back two runs in the bottom half of the frame, but were able to stop a full comeback. There are only two more games left before the All-Star break, can the Mets keep this pivotal streak going?

Every David Peterson start is an audition. José Quintana is nearing his return. Joey Lucchesi could make his major league return (he also had a rough night in the minors last night allowing six runs over four innings). The Mets could go to a six-man rotation. The Mets could trade a starter, which would make David Peterson a regular in the rotation. There are a lot of different possibilities for the Mets after the All-Star break, David Peterson’s performance factors into a whole bunch of them.

Over 10 games and 49 innings this season, Peterson has a 6.61 ERA, 4.60 FIP, 1.673 WHIP and a 63 ERA+. Since returning to the rotation Peterson has pitched 10 innings, allowing one rune on eight hits and six walks. He has dropped his ERA from 8.08 to 6.61. He faced the Padres earlier this season and it was one of his better starts, holding the Padres to two runs (six hits, two walks) over 5 2/3 innings. The Padres have the following career numbers against Peterson:

• Juan Soto 1-8, 2B, 4 BB, 4 K
• Xander Bogerts 0-8, BB
• Ha-Seong Kim 1-3, K
• Jake Cronenworth 1-2, BB
• Manny Machado 1-3, 2B
• Brandon Dixon 1-2, K
• Trent Grisham 0-2
• Gary Sánchez 0-1, BB

Blake Snell has made 17 starts for the Padres and pitched 92 innings so far this season. He has a 3.03 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 1.261 WHIP and a 135 ERA+. He’s coming off of a great start where he silenced the Angels for five innings, allowing seven hits but no runs. Since May 25th Snell has allowed only four earned runs over 47 innings (0.77 ERA, 2.08 FIP). He had a season ERA of 5.40 before this streak. Against the Mets earlier this season he allowed four runs, three earned, over five innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against Snell:

• Francisco Lindor 4-28, 2B, HR, 7 K
• Starling Marte 5-17, 2B, HR, BB, 5 K
• Mark Canha 4-13, 2B, 4 BB, 3 K
• Pete Alonso 5-12, 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, K
• Brandon Nimmo 5-12, 2 2B, BB, K
• Jeff McNeil 2-6, 2 BB, K
• Tommy Pham 1-4, 2 BB
• Omar Narváez 0-1, 3 BB
• DJ Stewart 0-3, 2 K
• Luis Guillorme 0-1, BB

Three Things to Watch For:

1. Francisco Lindor is doing everything he possibly can to carry the Mets. Lindor is the heart and soul of this team and has put up video game numbers recently. He went 3-for-5 last night hitting his 19th homer of the season, second in two days and third in the month of July. In his last two games he’s gone 8-for-10 with two triples, two homers and five runs scored. After being snubbed for the All-Star game a second time, he made comments after the game asking why Brandon Nimmo wasn’t an All-Star, rather than complaining about his own situation.
2. Francisco Álvarez is lighting up box scores. Álvarez has had three consecutive multi-hit games. Last night he went 4-for-5 at the plate! Overall in his last four games he has gone 9-for-16 with three homers (.563/.588/1.125). Last night’s game pushed his season OPS over .800 for the first time since June 17th. His breakout right now is the x-factor for the Mets.
3. Daniel Vogelbach has quietly had two nice days at the plate. On June 27th Vogelbach went 2-for-4 with a homer. Then over his next five games he went 0-for-10, drawing one walk. In his last two games he has gone 5-for-9 with a double and a walk. Obviously we want more power from our designated hitter, but its nice to see him get on base so much over the last couple of days.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets have won five games in a row as they roll into San Diego for a pivotal series before All-Star break. The Mets were 10 games below .500 and 10 games back in the Wild Card race when this streak started. They are now five games below .500 and only 6.5 games back. They still have a lot of ground to cover but they are finally playing like the team we expected them to play like. After two back and forth affairs with the first-place Diamondbacks, last night the Mets fired on all cylinders and won 9-0, hitting three homers and getting an amazing start from Carlos Carrasco.

They’ll look to keep the vibes going tonight against the San Diego Padres who are in a similar position. The Padres also had huge expectations this season and are currently sitting in fourth place, 6.5 games out of the Wild Card. They’ve won four of their last five games and are looking to save their season also. Only one team will be able to this weekend!

Justin Verlander takes the mound tonight after breaking a season curse his last time out. Verlander has oscillated between good starts and terrible starts. With the exception of his first two starts, this pattern has held true the whole season. He’s now tossed two good/great games in a row, allowing one unearned run over 12 innings from 10 hits and three walks. This season he now has a 3.66 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 1.188 WHIP and a 114 ERA+. The Padres have the following career numbers against him:

• Rougned Odor 7-41, 2 HR, 2 BB, 12 K
• Manny Machado 7-30, 2B, 3B, HR, 2 BB, 9 K
• Xander Bogaerts 4-17, 2 2B, BB, 4 K
• Gary Sánchez 1-17, 4 K
• Preston Tucker 1-10, 3 K
• Juan Soto 0-3

The Mets bats will try to keep the bats hot tonight against Yu Darvish. Darvish has pitched 80 innings over 14 starts with a 4.84 ERA, 3.88 FIP, 1.225 WHIP and an 85 ERA+. He started June off strong with seven shutout innings. Then over his next three starts he allowed 14 runs in 16 1/3 innings from 20 hits and seven walks. Then Yu Darvish got sick. Tonight will be his first start since missing time due to illness. He lost seven pounds. Hopefully he’s feeling like himself again and is 100%.

Darvish faced the Mets back on April 10th and the Mets scored five runs from six hits and a walk over 6 1/3 innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Francisco Lindor 5-18, 2B, 2 BB, 7 K
• Starling Marte 7-17, 2B, HR, BB, 3 K
• Jeff McNeil 2-14, 2B, HR, BB, 3 K
• Pete Alonso 2-13, HR, 4 K
• Omar Narváez 1-8, BB, 6 K
• Brandon Nimmo 1-9, 2 K
• Luis Guillorme 2-9, 2B, 3 K
• Mark Canha 2-7, 2B, K
• Daniel Vogelbach 3-5, BB

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Gary Sánchez faces off against his old team. Sánchez was released by the Francisco Giants on May 2nd and signed with the New York Mets a week later. He had a great stint with Syracuse but didn’t do much in New York going 1-for-6 at the plate. The Mets then DFA’d him, had a whole problem with Nido on the roster. Just a lot happened. Sánchez would get claimed by the Padres and go 12-for-47 in his first 13 games hitting six homers. He’s cooled off a bit in his 20 games since then, going 8-for-57 (.140/.258/.193).
2. Mets went homer happy in Arizona. The Mets hit seven homers in their three games in Arizona. Francisco Álvarez has homered in three straight games. In the first game of the series he hit the go-ahead homer, and in the second game he hit the tying homer. He’s now at 16 on the season, two behind Lindor who also homered last night. Pete hit his 26th homer as he tries to get hot before going to the Homerun Derby. Can the Mets keep this pace up tonight?
3. Francisco Lindor. Lindor went 5-for-5 at the plate last night including two triples and a homer. He had 12 total bases! The Mets play so much better when Lindor is hot. This is the make or break series for the Mets this season and the Mets are going to need Lindor to carry this team.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets hot start to July continued last night! Kodai Senga gave the Mets eight fantastic innings. With two outs in the top of the ninth Álvarez tied the game with a clutch solo shot. Canha would then drive in the go-ahead run a couple of batters later. Now the Mets look to complete the three game sweep of the Diamondbacks and try to win their fifth game in a row.

The Mets turn to Carlos Carrasco to finish the job in Arizona tonight. Over 11 starts (53 innings), he has a 5.94 ERA, 6.46 FIP, 1.566 WHIP and a 70 ERA+. He’s coming off of back to back starts where he has allowed exactly two runs (four runs in nine innings of work). Homeruns continue to be a concern for Carrasco. He’s allowed at least one homer now in eight consecutive starts and in ten of eleven this season. The Diamondbacks have the following career numbers against him:

• Evan Longoria 3-23, HR, 7 K
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 2-8, 2B, 5 K
• Ketel Marte 3-7, BB, 3 K
• Carson Kelly 0-2
• Pavin Smith 0-2, 2 K
• Christian Walker 0-2, 2 K

Ryne Nelson has pitched 90 2/3 innings over 17 starts this season with a 4.67 ERA, 4.45 FIP, 1.379 WHIP and a 94 ERA+. He is coming off back to back excellent starts where he allowed two runs over 14 1/3 innings from six hits and three walks. Before that he allowed eight runs from 16 hits over nine innings (two starts). This will be Nelson’s first start against the Mets and his first time facing anyone on the Mets roster.

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Five in July. The Mets won their 4th game in July yesterday (July 5th). Last month they didn’t win their 4th game until the 16th and their fifth game until the 19th. The streak the Mets are currently on is the exact thing they needed to turn their season around.
2. Francisco Álvarez is clutch. Álvarez hit his 15th homer of the season yesterday. Seven of his homers have either given the Mets the lead or tied the game. It was the second day in a row that he did this against the Diamondbacks. On Tuesday, his 467-foot homer gave the Mets a 6-4 lead. He makes the team fun to watch.
3. The Mets are stealing bases at a fast clip now. Pham stole his 10th base of the season yesterday and Marte had his 23rd. On Tuesday the Mets stole four bases (Lindor twice, McNeil and Marte). On Sunday they stole two bases (Canha and Baty). This is something to keep an eye on as the Mets finish out their last week of games before the All-Star break.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets look to extend their winning streak to four games tonight against the Diamondbacks. A win tonight would clinch the Mets second consecutive series win and make it less likely that the Mets will be sellers at the end of the month. Can the Mets keep the good times rolling?

Kodai Senga was originally scheduled to pitch yesterday and was pushed back to today for one extra day of rest. Over 15 games and 81 2/3 innings this year he has a 3.53 ERA, 4.02 FIP, 1.347 WHIP and a 117 ERA+. He is still leading the league in walks at 46 but is coming off of a start where he only walked two batters. In his last start he allowed two runs over five innings while striking out eight. It was the third start in his last four that he has allowed two earned runs or fewer.

The Mets bats will get a look at Tommy Henry this evening. Henry has pitched in 13 games tossing 68 1/3 innings with a 4.08 ERA, 5.33 FIP, 1.346 WHIP and a 107 ERA+. He’s been on a roll lately with back to back starts allowing one run. In his last three starts he has a 1.96 ERA over 18 1/3 innings, despite allowing 18 hits and five walks. Before this stretch he allowed 10 runs over nine innings in his first two starts of June. Teams have hit at least one homer off of him for five consecutive starts. The Mets have never seen him in an official major league game before.

Three Things To Watch For:

1. There were a lot of homers yesterday. The Mets and the Diamondbacks hit three homers each yesterday, including a 467-foot bomb from Francisco Álvarez. Tommy Henry has allowed homers in five straight starts and has a 1.6 HR/9 rate this season. Kodai Senga hasn’t allowed a homer in two starts, but we’ve seen him fall into periods of time where teams tee off of him. He has a 1.0 HR/9 rate this season. Will the ball stay in the yard tonight?
2. The Mets are leading the league in hit by pitches. For most of the season the Mets have been in the top three of being hit by pitches. Over the last couple of weeks they have been plunked at a consistent rate and are the standalone leaders. It’s happened 53 times now, four more than the Mariners.
3. Double Steals? Lindor (on base because he got hit by a pitch) and Jeff McNeil completed a double a steal, that eventually turned into a critical insurance run. It was the second consecutive game the Mets have completed a double steal.

Let’s Go Mets!

Are the Mets buyers or sellers?

The next week is going to be crucial for the Mets in 2023. A disastrous week can put the playoffs out of reach and put the team into a full sell mode. A fantastic week, building on the series win against the Giants, can allow the Mets to think about what direction they are going until after the All-Star break.

We already saw a preview of a retooling July could look like with the Mets trade for Trevor Gott yesterday. The Mets didn’t give up a prospect, rather they took on salary to get a pitcher under contract for another 1.5 seasons. This “not quite” buyers or sellers approach can marginally improve the team in 2023 and next year. If the Mets get a few more wins this week they can continue this approach.

Kodai Senga gets the start for the Mets this afternoon. Over 15 games and 81 2/3 innings this year he has a 3.53 ERA, 4.02 FIP, 1.347 WHIP and a 117 ERA+. He is still leading the league in walks at 46 but is coming off of a start where he only walked two batters. In his last start he allowed two runs over five innings while striking out eight. It was the third start in his last four that he has allowed two earned runs or fewer.

The Mets bats will get a look at Zach Davies. Over nine starts (42 2/3 innings) Davies has a 6.54 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 1.617 WHIP and a 67 ERA+. He’s coming off of his best start of the season where he shutout the Rays for seven innings, holding them to only two hits. Before that he allowed 21 runs, 18 earned, over three starts spanning 10 2/3 innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Starling Marte 12-31, 2 2B, 3 BB
• Tommy Pham 3-14, BB, 4 K
• Pete Alonso 0-4, BB
• Jeff McNeil 3-7
• Omar Narváez 0-5, BB
• Brandon Nimmo 3-6, 2 2B, 3B, K
• Daniel Vogelbach 2-4, HR, BB, K
• Mark Canha 1-3

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Tommy Pham is just destroying baseballs right now. Sunday night Tommy Pham went 3-for-4 at the plate with two doubles. In his last five games he has now 12-for-18 at the plate with five extra-base hits and has an absurd .667/.700/1.167 (1.867 OPS) batting line. It was his sixth three-hit game of the season. In his last 28 games he is hitting .378/.431/.694. Pham’s OPS has gone from .627 to .892 during this time.
2. Meet the newest Met. The Mets traded for Trevor Gott yesterday. Over 30 games (29 innings) this season, he has a 4.03 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 1.414 WHIP and a 101 ERA+. Since returning from the injured list he has allowed three runs from four hits over 2 1/3 innings. He hasn’t pitched since June 30th so depending on how fast the Mets want to throw him in, he’s ready to go! His Baseball Savant page is where his numbers begin to pop-out. He’s in the 94th percentile for barrel percentage, 88th for xERA/xwOBA, 83rd for xSLG, 81st in walk percentage and 75th for xBA. Essentially, he generally avoids hard contact and doesn’t walk a ton.
3. Old Friend! The Mets got Miguel Castro before the 2020 trade deadline. Castro had a great year with the Mets in 2021, pitching 70 1/3 innings with a 3.45 ERA, 4.36 FIP, 1.294 WHIP and a 116 ERA+. The Mets traded Castro to the Yankees before the 2022 season for Joely Rodríguez. After his one season with the Yankees, Castro signed a deal with Arizona. Miguel is thriving this season with a 3.24 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 1.050 WHIP and a 135 ERA+ over 33 1/3 innings. We’re happy to see Miguel doing so well!

Let’s Go Mets!

The calendar flipped to July and the Mets have started winning again! It’s a sample size of one, but a win is a win. The Mets got a flurry of solo homers, an outstanding start from Verlander and cruised to a 4-1 victory. Now the Mets have a chance to win a series for the first time since June 1st.

David Peterson gets a second start in the rotation this evening. José Quintana is close to joining the Mets rotation and a decision will need to be made about whether the Mets stick to a five-man rotation or jump to a six-man. Peterson made that decision a bit more interesting in his last start, tossing six scoreless innings against the Brewers. He worked out of multiple jams and gave one of his best efforts of the season. Over nine starts and 45 innings, he has a 7.00 ERA, 4.57 FIP, 1.689 WHIP and a 59 ERA+. He faced the Giants back on April 22nd, in a forgettable start, where he allowed seven runs from seven hits and a walk over five innings. The Giants have the following numbers against him:

• Thairo Estrada 3-7, 2 K
• Wilmer Flores 1-4, HR, BB
• Joey Bart 1-5, 2 K
• Brandon Crawford 2-4, 2 HR, K
• Michael Conforto 1-3
• David Villar 0-2
• Mike Yastrzemski 0-3, K
• Heliot Ramos 1-2, 2B, K
• LaMonte Wade Jr. 0-2, K

Ross Stripling will make his first start tonight since coming off the injured list about a week ago. In ten games this season, five starts, Ross has a 6.88 ERA, 6.25 FIP, 1.557 WHIP and a 63 ERA+. He tossed 50 pitches in relief on June 28th, holding the Blue Jays to one run and four hits over three innings (arguably his best outing of the season). He faced the Mets at the end of April and allowed three runs, two earned, over 3 1/3 innings after allowing six hits. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Starling Marte 3-10, 2 BB, K
• Tommy Pham 0-13, BB, 2 K
• Pete Alonso 1-5, 2B, K
• Brandon Nimmo 0-4, 2 K
• Daniel Vogelbach 1-3, BB
• Luis Guillorme 1-3, K
• Francisco Lindor 1-3, 2B
• Danny Mendick 2-3, K
• Francisco Álvarez 0-2, K
• Brett Baty 1-2
• Jeff McNeil 2-2
• Mark Canha 0-1
• Omar Narváez 0-1

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Giants bullpen usage questions. DeSclafani lasted only three innings yesterday, giving up three solo homers. Manaea came in after him and pitched three innings. Between Friday and Saturday Manaea has tossed 71 pitches, Taylor Rogers 21, Tyler Rogers 19 and Jakob Junis 17 (but over two innings). Ross Stripling has five innings only three times this year, and was effective in only one of those starts. The Mets can do themselves a lot of favors tonight if they work counts early in the game and put the Giants in a pitching conundrum.
2. The return of the homer-happy offense. Three of the Mets runs yesterday came on solo homers (Álvarez, Nimmo, Lindor). For Álvarez it was his first homer since June 10th. Nimmo and Lindor were continuing their power-hitting summer. It would be nice if the Mets can get runners on before they hit a blast, but after the way the offense has been the last week, it’s just nice to see them hitting blasts.
3. Another day, another notable stat for Pham. After going 8-for-11 in his last three games, a 1-for-3 day at the plate seems a bit like a let down. The hottest hitter in the Mets lineup hit a double and drove in a run yesterday. Pham’s RBI was the only RBI not from solo homer!

Let’s Go Mets!