213 Miles From Shea

The New York Mets look to put another frustrating weekend of baseball behind them as they head down to Houston to start a series with the Astros tonight.

On Friday night the Mets cruised to victory over the struggling Cardinals. They had chances on Saturday but couldn’t cash in as the Cardinals beat them 5-3. Yesterday Carlos Carrasco couldn’t get the job done on the mound and despite the Mets scoring seven runs they couldn’t overcome the Cardinals and lost 8-7. A disappointing weekend. Tommy Pham said after the game, all it takes is the Mets to go on a bit of run. Can they start that tonight?

Max Scherzer looks to take a step in the right direction for himself and the team tonight. Over 11 starts and 56 2/3 innings he has a 4.45 ERA, 4.35 FIP, 1.235 WHIP and a 94 ERA+. Scherzer has had only two seasons in his career, 2011 and 2023 where his ERA+ was below 100. In his last two starts he’s allowed 11 runs from 18 hits and no walks. Last time out he lasted only 3 1/3 innings. Before that pair of starts, Scherzer allowed only 4 runs, 3 earned, over 25 innings. Which Scherzer will the Mets get tonight? The Astros have the following career numbers against Scherzer:

• Michael Brantley 17-47, 8 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 3 BB, K
• José Abreu 6-20, 2B, 5 K
• Jose Altuve 2-14, 4 K
• Martín Maldonado 1-5, HR, BB, 4 K
• Kyle Tucker 1-2, BB, K

Hunter Brown gets the start for the Astros tonight. In 75 1/3 innings this season he has a 3.35 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 1.195 WHIP and a 126 ERA+. Hunter is coming off of a great start where he held the Nationals scoreless over seven innings, scattering four hits and three walks. Before that he was in a two start stretch where he allowed eight runs over 10 2/3 innings. This will be Hunter’s first time facing anyone on the Mets roster in an official major league game.

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Can the Mets offense keep the momentum going? The result stunk yesterday but the Mets offense showed all the different ways they can get on base and score runs. Lindor and Pham both homered. Nimmo got a double. McNeil was on base three times because he got plunked twice and walked once. Canha walked twice. The Mets were able to combine all of this together and get seven runs. At times the offense disappears. Other times it becomes only supported by solo blasts. If the bats can put together games like they did yesterday more routinely, the wins will start to come.
2. The Astros are struggling too. The Astros aren’t struggling like the Mets, but things aren’t great in Houston right now. They have lost four games in a row and were swept by the Reds this weekend. Similar to the Mets, they also scored seven runs yesterday and lost! Both the Mets and the Astros are battling right now to right the ship.
3. There is hope in peripherals. We are looking everywhere for hope right now, and there is some hope in Max Scherzer’s Baseball Savant page. Teams are hitting Scherzer hard, we know this. His Barrel % is in the 25th percentile in the league. That being said, he’s in the 84th and 88th percentile for fastball and curveball spin. He’s in the 84th percentile for walk percentage. He’s in 67th percentile for xERA/xwOBA, and the way he’s been playing I thought that would be a lot worse. He’s still getting hitters to chase (76th percentile).

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets look to win a crucial rubber game this afternoon against a struggling Cardinals squad. The Mets came close yesterday but couldn’t complete the comeback. After a lead-off homer from Brandon Nimmo, the Cardinals were able to hit a couple of homers and take the lead 4-1. Luis Guillorme hit a crucial two-run homer to bring it to 4-3, but the Mets bats fell flat late with the wind blowing into the stadium, knocking down some hard hit balls and the hopes to take the game.

Carlos Carrasco looks to get the Mets on the right path today. Over eight starts and 41 innings this season, Carrasco has a 5.71 ERA, 6.24 FIP, 1.463 WHIP and a 73 ERA+. Carrasco is coming off of a shorter start where he was able to keep the Pirates to only two runs despite allowing six hits and three walks. It was his third start in his last four where he allowed two runs or fewer. The Cardinals have the following career numbers against Carrasco:

• Willson Contreras 2-9, 3 K
• Tommy Edman 2-6, 2B, 2 K
• Paul Goldschmidt 3-6, 2B
• Paul DeJong 0-5, 2 K
• Tyler O’Neill 1-5, 2 K
• Nolan Arenado 2-2, BB
• Dylan Carlson 0-1, BB

Matthew Liberatore gets the start for the Cards this afternoon. He has pitched in five games, four starts this year totaling 21 innings. He has a 5.14 ERA, 4.22 FIP, 1.571 WHIP and an 85 ERA+. That being said he he’s coming off of one his stronger starts against the Giants where he allowed two runs from seven hits and two walks over six innings. There is no one on the Mets roster who has seen Liberatore in a major league game before.

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Can Carrasco keep the ball in the park? Homers hurt the Mets in yesterday’s game, and homers have been Carrasco weak point this season. He’s only had one start where he he hasn’t allowed a homer. Even in his good starts, he’s allowed solo homers. The Cardinals are struggling in a lot of different ways, but not with the long ball. They have hit 96 as a team, which is good for sixth in the league.
2. Brandon Nimmo is in the red. If you look up Nimmo’s Savant Page, you’ll see a lot of red. Nimmo is in the 85th percentile for average exit velocity, 83rd for hard hit percentage and 82nd in xwOBA. Nimmo’s signature skill, his eye, comes through in his chase rate sitting in the 92nd percentile.
3. Where is Mark Vientos? Vientos’ playing time has fallen off of a cliff this past week, especially when it’s combined with the Mets two off days during the week. He played on June ninth, sat on the tenth, and then got a start on the 11th. He sat again until the 14th and hasn’t played since.

Let’s Go Mets!

“OK, we won a game yesterday. If we win today, it’s called ‘two in a row’. And if we win again tomorrow, it’s called a ‘winning streak’. It’s has happened before”. – Lou Brown (James Gammon), Major League

The Mets had the type of game last night that has so alluded them in 2023. An easy, cruise control win. The Mets scored bunch early. The starting pitching from Tylor Megill was great. The bullpen closed the door behind them. The game was never in doubt. This was the calling card of the 2022 Mets. Can the Mets do it again today?

Kodai Senga makes his 13th start of the season tonight. Over his first 12 games and 64 2/3 innings, he has a 3.34 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 1.376 WHIP with a 124 ERA+. Senga had a fairly terrible start back on June 4th. He allowed four runs from four hits and five walks over 2 2/3 innings. He rebounded in his last start allowing only one unearned run over seven innings of work from two hits and four walks. It was his second time in his last three starts that he allowed 0 earned runs. Senga allowed five homers in his first four major league starts. Since then he’s allowed only two homers in seven starts. When he keeps the ball in the park, and his walks down, he’s tremendous.

The Cardinals send out their ageless wonder Adam Wainwright tonight. Over seven starts and 37 1/3 innings he has a 5.79 ERA, 4.43 FIP, 1.714 WHIP and a 75 ERA+. His WHIP shows a lot of his struggles sitting about 500 points higher than his career mark at 1.223 and about 450 points higher than last season. In his first four starts of the season he allowed at least four runs in every start. Since then he’s allowed exactly three runs in each start, but hasn’t finished the sixth inning. He’s allowed at least eight hits in his last four starts. The Mets have the following career numbers against Wainwright:

• Starling Marte 14-51, 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 9 K
• Omar Narváez 9-24, 3 2B, HR, 3 BB, 2 K
• Eduardo Escobar 4-15, 2B, 3 BB, 3 K
• Tommy Pham 5-14, 2 2B, HR, 2 BB
• Daniel Vogelbach 2-13, HR, BB, 5 K
• Francisco Lindor 2-9, BB, 2 K
• Jeff McNeil 1-8, BB, 2 K
• Mark Canha 2-5, 2B, 3 K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Who’s ready in the bullpen? The Mets are playing down Drew Smith for ten days and his roster spot. Luckily last night Walker and Leone were able to get the job done, leaving everyone else in the bullpen without at least two calendar days of rest. The Mets need all of theri starters to go deep into games for the next week to keep the pressure off the bullpen. For context, on Tuesday and Wednesday the Mets used five different relivers each night.
2. The DH going forward. Daniel Vogelbach returned to the lineup last night and hit his first homerun since May 7th. There was a lot of criticism before the game (correct criticism in my opinion) that Vogelbach was starting as the DH instead of Álvarez. The Mets are still running into an issue where they are not giving Vientos the playing time he needs to get consistent ABs. Pham is a great example of a player for the Mets who has turned his season around after getting consistent at bats. We’ll be paying attention to how the Mets play the DH spot for the rest of the weekend, especially with the late afternoon start and the early afternoon start tomorrow for the catchers on staff.
3. More Jeff McHits: Jeff McNeil recorded his third two-hit game in his last seven last night. During his last seven games Jeff is 8-for-29 with a double and a homer, hitting .276/.323/.414. This is essentially his season line. Right now Jeff McNeil is feast or famine, collecting hits in bunches or none at all. Does McNeil eat today against Wanwright’s WHIP?

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets look to win back to back games tonight as they welcome the Cardinals to Citi Field. Wednesday night for the Mets looked like it was going to be more of the same until the Mets tied the game in the seventh and sent it to extra innings. Is this come from behind win the type of game the Mets need to get firing on all cylinders?

The Cardinals are one of the few teams that can rival the Mets in 2023 disappointment. They were expected to compete for the division title and currently sit in last place with a 27-42 record. That being said, their expected win-loss record is 33-36, which is just ever so slightly better than the Mets at 32-36 (Mets real and expected records are the same). Both teams have won two games in their last ten, and both can use a big series to get momentum.

Tylor Megill returns to the mound tonight for the Mets. Over 13 starts (63 innings) he has a 5.14 ERA, 5.18 FIP, 1.698 WHIP and an 81 ERA+. Megill is coming off of his worst start of the season against the Pirates where he allowed nine runs, seven earned from eight hits and three walks over 3 2/3 innings. It was his third time in his last four starts allowing at least six runs. The Cardinals have the following career numbers against him:

• Tommy Edman 1-2, BB, K
• Nolan Arenado 0-1, BB
• Dylan Carlson 1-2
• Paul Goldschmidt 1-2, 2B

The Mets bats will open the series against Miles Mikolas. In 14 starts (80 2/3 innings) Mikolas has a 4.02 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 1.351 WHIP and a 107 ERA+. His season has been defined by a cold streak followed by a hot streak. In his first three starts he allowed 16 runs. In his next ten starts he allowed 16 runs. That’s a 10.05 ERA in his cold streak and a 2.24 ERA in his hot streak. In his last start he allowed five runs. Is this the start of another cold streak? Is it a blip? The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Starling Marte 5-35, 2B, 2 BB, 6 K
• Omar Narváez 4-14, 2 2B, 3B, BB, 3 K
• Eduardo Escobar 2-11, BB, 2 K
• Brandon Nimmo 0-9, BB, 3 K
• Jeff McNeil 4-8, 2 2B, BB, K
• Daniel Vogelbach 3-9, HR, 2 K
• Francisco Lindor 1-6
• Tommy Pham 0-4, 4 K
• Mark Canha 0-1, BB
• Luis Guillorme 1-3, K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Does it feel like the Mets are hitting more doubles recently? On Wednesday night Lindor, Pham and Nimmo all hit doubles. On the season the Mets rank 28th in the league in doubles but over their last seven games the Mets are 16th in the league with 11 doubles. This is calendar days and the Mets have had two off-days in the last week.
2. Brandon Nimmo collects hits in pairs now. Brandon Nimmo has had two hits in three of the last four games he’s played. He’s 6-for-15 at the plate with a double and a homer. He’s also been hit three times leading to a .400/.526/.667 slash line. Now in this stretch that has seen him reach base ten times, he’s only scored twice. Hopefully the Mets can capitalize if he gets another pair of hits tonight.
3. Hit by pitches are piling up again. Pete Alonso got seriously hurt by a pitch about a week ago. That pitch knocked out baseball’s homerun leader for a month. For a while the Mets were not collecting hit by pitches at the same rate they had been, but there’s been an uptick recently. The Yankees hit the Mets three times in three games which leaves the Mets tied for third in the league at getting plunked. The Athletics lead with 43 followed by the Angles at 41. Then the Mets and Mariners are tied for 40. This is not the category the Mets want to lead.

Let’s Go Mets!

Yesterday may have been the most frustrating Mets loss of the season. They opened the game with a 5-1 lead, looking like they were going to roll through the Yankees. Then Max Scherzer lost control of the game, the Mets made several defensive miscues and they suffered a series of aggravating umpire decisions. Despite all of that, the Mets had a chance to win the game in the 8th inning with the bases loaded and couldn’t bring anyone home. Then in a head-scratching situation, Buck Showalter didn’t use either of his power bats on the bench in the ninth inning when down by one run.

As a result the Mets are now five games below .500 and they are without a key reliever, Drew Smith, for the next ten games. There was a glimmer of hope at the start of the game yesterday that the Mets were emerging out of their free fall, but it’s clear the Mets are still plummeting.

Justin Verlander, the Mets big off-season acquisition, has a chance to stop the Mets free fall tonight. Over seven starts and 39 innings, Verlander has a 4.85 ERA, 4.92 FIP, 1.333 WHIP and an 86 ERA+. He is in a pattern right now where every other start is either terrible or amazing. On May 16th he allowed six runs over five innings, then he tossed a one-run, eight inning gem. Then on May 27th he allowed six runs over five innings, then he allowed one run over six. His last time out he allowed five runs, four earned, over just three innings against Atlanta. Does the pendulum swing back tonight? The Yankees have the following career numbers against him:

• Josh Donaldson 7-21, 2 2B, 3 BB, 3 K
• DJ LeMahieu 6-18, 2B, HR, 2 K
• Gleyber Torres 2-15, 5 K
• Willie Calhoun 5-11, HR, 2 BB, 2 K
• Giancalro Stanton 2-11, 2 HR, BB, 6 K
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2-9, HR, 2 K
• Jake Bauers 1-7, BB, 3 K
• Anthony Rizzo 0-2, BB

The Mets bats will close out the two game series against the Yankees ace, Gerrit Cole. Cole has made 14 starts and tossed 85 2/3 innings this year with a 2.84 ERA, 3.70 FIP, 1.144 WHIP and a 147 ERA+. Cole ended May with two rough starts in a row where he allowed a combined 11 runs, 10 earned, over 11 innings. Since then he has pitched 12 innings allowing only three runs from 11 hit sand three walks while striking out 11. The Mets have the following career numbers against Cole:

• Tommy Pham 10-27, 2 2B, 2 HR, 10 K
• Mark Canha 2-13, 2B, BB, 5 K
• Francisco Lindor 1-11, 2 BB, 2 K
• Daniel Vogelbach 0-13, BB, 7 K
• Omar Narváez 1-13, 8 K
• Starling Marte 1-6
• Brandon Nimmo 1-3, K
• Luis Guillorme 1-2, K
• Jeff McNeil 2-2

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Does Cole keep the ball in the park? Cole ended the month of April with a 1.11 ERA. His May ERA was 5.18. The difference was homers. He didn’t allow a single homer in the month of April. He allowed eight in May, and they all came in pairs. In June so far he has allowed one. Cole has had only one good-ish start when he’s allowed two homers in the same game, which makes sense.
2. Mark Canha’s resurgence continues. Mark was on base twice last night and in his last four games he’s gone 5-for-14 with three doubles, slashing .357/.438/.571. Since May 31st he’s hitting .313/.405/.594. More importantly, he’s driven in 10 runs since May 31st, which is about half of his RBI total for the season.
3. The Mets are down a bullpen pitcher. The Mets had a bullpen shakeup over the weekend and a seven inning performance from Kodai Senga on Saturday. That, coupled with the off-day on Monday meant that the Mets bullpen was fairly well rested. That ended up being very important as the Mets needed to use five bullpen arms last night and lost an additional arm with the Smith ejection. Adam Ottavino and Brooks Raley are completely rested and ready to go today if Verlander can go seven innings. If not, Robertson can go again. If Verlander cannot go deep, the Mets are going need to burn through most of the pen again, but they do have another off-day tomorrow for extra rest.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets and Yankees meet tonight for part one of their annual Subway Series. The Yankees currently sit in third place in the AL East with a 38-29 record, but out 4-6 over their last ten games. The Mets are in fourth place in the NL East at 31-35 and have won only two games of their last 10. The Yankees are without their most exciting bat, Aaron Judge. The Mets are sorely missing the driver of their offense in Pete Alonso.

It’s no secret that for the Mets, the starting pitching has let the team down. In this two game series with their cross town rivals, the Mets will be sending out their two biggest stars – Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. If there was ever a time to make a statement, it’s right now!

Over ten starts (53 1/3 innings) Max Scherzer has a 3.71 ERA, 3.89 FIP, 1.181 WHIP and a 111 ERA+. Scherzer is coming off of a start where he started off great and then wheels just fell off. By the time he left in the sixth inning, he allowed five runs despite striking out a season high 10 batters. In his four starts before this he had allowed only four runs, three earned, over 25 innings (1.08 ERA). Scherzer had two very different starts against the Yankees last season. At Citi Field he held them to no runs over seven innings. In the Bronx he allowed four runs over 6 2/3. The Yankees have the following career numbers against him:

• Anthony Rizzo 6-23, 2B, HR, BB, 3 K
• Josh Donaldson 3-20, 2B, 3B, 4 BB, 4 K
• Giancarlo Stanton 6-24, 3 HR, 12 K
• DJ LeMahieu 5-14, BB, 3 K
• Harrison Bader 2-12, 2B, 4 K
• Gleyber Torres 0-8, BB, 3 K
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa 3-6, 2 2B, K

Luis Severino returned to the Yankees from the injured list at the end of May and honestly his situation feels so Mets like it’s confusing he’s not on our roster. This season, over four starts and 20 1/3 innings, he has a 5.75 ERA, 7.15 FIP, 1.328 WHIP and a 73 ERA+. He has a diminished velocity that he needs to work around and is giving up homers at an astonishingly high rate of 3.1 HR/9. Most of his numbers are skewed in his last two starts. In his first two he allowed only three runs, two earned, over 11 1/3 innings, scattering five hits. Since then he has allowed 11 runs over nine innings from 15 hits and six homers. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Francisco Lindor 5-14, 2B, HR, BB, 3 K
• Brandon Nimmo 3-5, 2B, 2 BB, K
• Mark Canha 1-6, HR
• Tommy Pham 1-4, 2B
• Omar Narváez 0-3
• Daniel Vogelbach 0-3, K
• Jeff McNeil 1-2
• Eduardo Escobar 0-1

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Jeff McNeil hit a homer! The Mets offense was not existent on Sunday, but Jeff McNeil did hit his third homer of the season. He’s been struggling to find power at the plate but has come around a bit over his last five games where he has gone 5-for-21 with a double and homer slashing .238/.304/.429. On the season he is slugging .354 so this is a slight improvement. The Mets would love for this to be start of something.
2. Yankees bats are also struggling. It’s not just the Mets bats that are underperforming. Anthony Rizzo is 0-for-19 in his last five games with two walks (but only two strikeouts). Josh Donaldson is 2-for-22 over his last seven games, but his two hits were both homers. Stanton is 1-for-14 in his last five games.
3. The Oakland Athletics Reverse Boycott. If you didn’t know, the Athletics are trying to move to Las Vegas. The whole situation is pretty terrible. The very short version is the ownership group has torn down the Athletics roster over the last couple of years while raising prices and not improving the stadium. Fans have done what they should do in that situation and stopped attending games. The ownership group then used the drop in attendance, that they caused, as evidence for why they should move. I’m glossing over a lot of details here. Anyway today is their reverse boycott where they are going to fill the stadium and they are asking for solidarity in the baseball world. You may see people at the game today, or just around New York City supporting their cause today.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets did it! They snapped their losing streak!

The Mets beat the Pirates 5-1 yesterday thanks to another homerun Francisco Álvarez and a three RBI day from Mark Canha. Kodai Senga gave the Mets their first quality start in ages, going seven innings allowing one unearned run, despite the Mets gloves behind him committing three errors. Robertson and Ottavino shut the door in the 8th and 9th. This is exactly what the Mets look like, despite the defensive miscues, when they are at their best. Now the Mets look to repeat that same magic today and take the series.

Carlos Carrasco looks to get back on the right track this afternoon as he makes his 8th start this season. In 36 1/3 innings he has a 5.94 ERA, 6.08 FIP, 1.404 WHIP and a 69 ERA+. Carrasco had back to back great starts where he allowed two runs from 11 hits and three walks over 12 2/3 innings but faltered in his last start where he allowed four runs over five. His one start against Pittsburgh last season was a great one. He held the Pirates to one run from four hits while he struck out 11 batters over six innings (one of two double digit strikeout games he had in 2022). The Pirates have the following career numbers against him:

• Ji Man Choi 3-12, 2 HR, 7 K
• Andrew McCutchen 2-7, 2 2B, BB, 2 K
• Bryan Reynolds 2-7, K
• Ke’Bryan Hayes 0-5, BB, K
• Rodolfo Castro 0-3, K
• Oneil Cruz 0-3, 2 K
• Connor Joe 1-3
• Calvin Mitchel 0-1, 2 BB
• Jason Delay 0-2, K
• Jack Suwinski 0-2, 2 K

Mitch Keller makes the start today for the Pirates. He currently leads the league in winning percentage, .778, with his 7-2 and record this season. Over 80 innings he has a 3.60 ERA, 3.16 FIP, 1.163 WHIP and a 122 ERA+. Keller has not pitched like his season numbers though in his last three starts. Over 17 1/3 innings he’s allowed 15 runs (7.79 ERA, 4.95 ERA) from 25 hits and seven walks. He faced the Mets twice last season in September. In the first game in Pittsburgh he allowed no runs over six innings. Ten days later he allowed three runs over six innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Francisco Lindor 2-5, 4 BB, K
• Tommy Pham 2-8, BB
• Omar Narváez 4-8
• Jeff McNeil 0-6, K
• Brandon Nimmo 1-5, K
• Daniel Vogelbach 1-4, HR, 2 BB, 2 K
• Mark Canha 1-4, K
• Eduardo Escobar 1-3, BB, K
• Luis Guillorme 1-3
• Starling Marte 0-2, K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Tommy Pham has arrived! Yesterday Tommy Pham went 2-for-4 at the plate scoring twice, including his seventh double of the season. In his last nine games he has gone 10-for-25 at the plate with four doubles, a triple and three homers leading to a .400/.467/1.000 batting line. As Vogelbach’s struggles continue, Pham is starting to heat up. With Alosno down for the next three to four weeks, Pham should see an increase in playing time. This is the contribution the Mets need to find in a couple of more bats in their lineup if they are going to go on a little run now.
2. Is it Canha Season again? Outside of Pham and Vientos, the other player who is going to become more important with Alonso’s injury is Mark Canha. Canha had a four game hitting streak between May 31st and June 3rd which made us think that it was Canha season. Then he went cold going 0-for-7 in his next two starts. This weekend he has gone 3-for-8 with two doubles and drove the Mets offense yesterday. He could be the Mets player of the series today.
3. Will the Mets field like the Mets today? Brandon Nimmo make a gold glove caliber catch yesterday. According to Baseball Savant he is in the 82nd percentile for outs above average. Álvarez made a tremendous throw yesterday and caught a runner stealing. The Mets have been fielding well this year. They are 8th in the league in errors per game at a paltry 0.43. That’s why it’s so surprising they made three errors yesterday and six in their last three games.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets losing streak has reached seven games as the Mets lost the series opener last night to the Pirates 14-7. In what has become a recent theme for the Mets, the starting pitch failed and this time the bullpen blew up next. The Mets have now scored 17 runs in their last two games, great for a team that’s been struggling at the plate and without their best hitter, but have no wins to show for it.

Kodai Senga looks to get the Mets back in the win column this afternoon. Over 11 starts (57 2/3 innings), Senga has a 3.75 ERA, 4.20 FIP, 1.439 WHIP and a 110 ERA+. His last game, his first on regular rest this season, was a bit rough as he allowed four runs, three earned, over 2 2/3 innings from four four hits and five walks. It was a stark difference from his previous start where he allowed one hit and no walks while striking out nine over seven innings. He also allowed a homerun for the first in his last start since May 11th. As we’ve seen by now, walks are Senga’s main weakness. When he’s really off, the walks and homers produce a bad mix. We’ve also seen that when he’s on, he’s almost unhittable. The Mets desperately need that version of Senga tonight.

The Mets bats look to keep getting hits and runs against Johan Oviedo this afternoon. Oviedo has made 12 starts (65 innings) with a 4.29 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 1.477 WHIP and a 103 ERA+. Over his last five starts and 28 innings he’s had a 2.57 ERA (4.46 ERA). The Mets faced him twice last year, scoring seven times over a combined 5 2/3 innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Daniel Vogelbach 1-8, BB, K
• Eduardo Escobar 1-6, K
• Jeff McNeil 1-4, 2 BB, K
• Brandon Nimmo 2-4, BB, K
• Francisco Lindor 1-3, BB, K
• Tommy Pham 1-2, 2 BB, K
• Mark Canha 0-2, BB, 2 K
• Luis Guillorme 0-1, BB, K
• Omar Narváez 0-2

Three Things To Watch For:

1. The Mets need a quality start tonight. Last weekend the Mets played the Blue Jays and got swept. It was also the first time all season where the Mets got quality starts from their starting pitchers and didn’t win the game. It was going to happen eventually. The Mets have now gone five games in a row with bad to terrible starts from their starters. The kicker is in four of those games, whether it was when the starter was on the mound or when the bullpen took over – the Mets had the lead at one point. The bullpen needs a chance to reset itself, and that can happen tonight if Senga goes six innings, allows three runs or less and the Mets have lead by the time the bottom of the seventh rolls around.
2. Vientos had a solid day. Thursday was a day to forget for Vientos. He went 0-for-5 at the plate, striking out three times. Yesterday he went 1-for-3 with a walk. His hit drove in his fifth run of the season. Vientos has not seen consistent playing time in a while. When he was seeing consistent time in the minors, he was absolutely destroying the ball at the plate. With Alonso down for an extended period of time, Vientos should be getting consistent playing time (he should have gotten consistent time before that too but that’s another conversation).
3. It’s happened before folks. On June 26th, 2018 the Mets ended a seven game losing streak against the Pirates when Wilmer Flores had a walk-off hit in the 10th inning. Can the Mets end a similar streak tonight against the same opponents?

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets roll into Pittsburgh tonight in a tough place. The Mets entered last weekend three games above .500 and then promptly got swept by the Blue Jays. In that series the pitching was there but the offense evaporated. Then the Mets went to Atlanta and blew huge leads in three consecutive games. Can the Mets get the pitching and hitting to click at the same time?

The Mets bats will have to face the surprising Pittsburgh Pirates who are in second place right now in the NL Central, one game behind the lead. They aren’t winning at the same pace they were earlier this season, but they’ve still won six of their last 10 games and have the second best run differential in the division at -2 (the best run differential is +1 for the last place St. Louis Cardinals).

Tylor Megill looks to get the Mets pitching back on track tonight. Over 12 starts and 59 1/3 innings, Megill has a 4.40 ERA, 5.19 FIP, 1.618 WHIP and a 94 ERA+. He’s coming off of a strong start against the Blue Jays where he held them to one run, despite allowing five hits and five walks. The Pirates have the following numbers against him:

• Ke’Bryan Hayes 3-5, K
• Bryan Reynolds 1-5
• Rodolfo Castro 0-2, 2 K
• Wil Crowe 0-2
• Andrew McCutchen 0-1, BB, K

The Mets get to face an old friend tonight – Rich Hill. Over 12 starts and 65 1/3 innings, Hill has a 4.41 ERA, 4.42 FIP, 1.378 WHIP and a 99 ERA+. Like Megill, Hill is also coming off of a good start after two rough starts. In his last start he allowed one run from four hits and three walks over 6 2/3 innings. In his two starts before that he allowed 11 runs over 11 1/3 innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against Hill:

• Starling Marte 3-11, 2B, BB, K
• Mark Canha 0-5, BB, 2 K
• Franacisco Lindor 2-8
• Brandon Nimmo 1-4, 2B, 3 K
• Eduardo Escobar 1-2
• Tommy Pham 1-4, HR, BB, K
• Pete Alonso 0-3, 3 K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Baby Mets are back! Yesterday we wrote about how the Baby Mets were starting to show signs of coming around at the plate. Yesterday Batty went 2-for-4 at the plate with a walk. Álvarez went 2-for-5 at the plate, hitting two homers which now makes three homers in two days. Vientos got a start last night and struggled at the plate with three strikeouts, but he also has incredibly inconsistent playing time over last couple of weeks. Can the Baby Mets keep this going in Pittsburgh
2. Can the bullpen pick itself up? The starting pitching the last couple of days, with the Mets twin aces pitching, has not done the Mets bullpen any favors. Bullpens eventually buckle when over worked and we saw that last night. For the first time in a while, everyone in the Mets bullpen has pitched over the last three calendar days. Nogosek, Brigham, Robertson, Raley, Ottavino and Smith have each tossed over 30 pitches in the last three calendar days.
3. Who is providing the power? With the Mets three homers last night, they’ve now had 76 on the season, which is good for 10th in the league. At the start of the season, their power was only coming from Pete Alonso. Now Álvarez and Lindor are helping Alonso out. Between the three of them, they have hit 44 homers this season. Then there’s a power vacuum on the team. This is a symptom of why the Mets offense tends to disappear from time to time, it’s riding on three bats. Pham has recently started to add some power and it would be wonderful if Canha, Marte and McNeil could too.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets will try to snap their five game losing streak and avoid getting swept for a second consecutive series tonight against the Atlanta Braves. Last night, for the second game in a row, the Mets blew a 4-1 lead. At least last night they eventually tied the game again, but would later lose as the offense and the bullpen fell short.

In the first inning last night Pete Alonso got hit on the hand/wrist by a Charlie Morton pitch. X-Rays came back negative and it’s been diagnosed as a contusion. Some Braves fans started to cheer after Alonso went down in a disgusting display of behavior. The Mets pitchers wisely and correctly did not retaliate.

Justin Verlander looks to put the Mets back on track tonight in the battle of the aces as he goes up against Spencer Strider. Over six starts (36 innings) Verlander has a 4.25 ERA, 4.53 FIP, 1.139 WHIP and a 98 ERA+. He’s coming off of a good start where he held the Blue Jays to one run over six innings, scattering five hits and three walks. The Mets eventually lost that game because the offense disappeared. The Braves have the following career numbers against him:

• Matt Olson 5-21, 2B, 2 HR, 7 K
• Eddie Rosario 3-20, 2B, 4 K
• Ehire Adrianza 2-7, HR, 4 K
• Kevin Pillar 2-7, K
• Sean Murphy 1-5, 3 K
• Marcell Ozuna 1-3, K
• Travis d’Arnaud 1-2, K

The Mets bats have to deal with the ace of the Atlanta staff tonight – Spencer Strider. Over 12 starts (69 2/3 innings) this season, Strider has a 2.97 ERA, 2.60 FIP, 1.005 WHIP and a 150 ERA+. He is currently leading the league with 113 strikeouts, a 14.6 K/9 rate and a 5.7 H/9 rate. That being said, Strider has been a bit more human recently, allowing 12 runs, 10 earned, over his last four starts and 23 innings (3.91 ERA, 4.59 FIP). During this stretch he has still struck out the world (34 batters), but also allowed five of the seven homers he’s given up this season. In three starts against the Mets last season he had a 4.38 ERA from allowing six runs from 14 hits over 12 1/3 innings. The Mets have the following numbers against him:

• Brandon Nimmo 5-12, 3B, HR, BB, 2 K
• Francisco Lindor 5-11, 3B, BB, 2 K
• Pete Alonso 2-9, 2B, HR, 2 BB, 6 K
• Daniel Vogelbach 1-8, 2 BB, 4 K
• Jeff McNeil 2-7, 2B
• Mark Canha 2-6, 2B, BB, 2 K
• Starling Marte 1-5, 2 BB, 2 K
• Eduardo Escobar 1-3, 2B, BB
• Tommy Pham 0-4, 3 K
• Brett Baty 0-2, K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Tommy Pham hot streak loading. In his last six games, Pham has gone 6-for-12 at the plate with a double, a triple and three homers. Buck Showalter, from spring training through rough patches this season, has always defended Tommy Pham specifically how hard he hits the ball. He is currently sitting in the 91st percentile for maximum exit velocity. The Mets need anyone on a hot streak to step right now, can it be Tommy?
2. The Baby Mets got hits last night. While Vientos has been inexplicably on the bench recently while Vogelbach struggles, the other baby Mets got a few hits and hard hit balls last night. Brett Baty had a single that drove in run in the first inning. Francisco Álvarez crushed a solo shot right after Alonso got hit by a pitch. Can they continue to deliver tonight?
3. Working Counts. The Mets worked six walks last night and struck out only seven times. It was the first time during this losing streak they didn’t have double digit strikeouts. It was also the first time in a while we’ve seen the Mets make a starting pitcher work, which is a hallmark of the Mets offense when things are going good. Leading the pack was Brandon Nimmo who had two strikeouts and now has 31 on the season (tied for 18th in the league). Spencer Strider has a high strikeout rate, a low hit rate but he does walk more batters than you think he would. His 3.4 BB/9 means the Mets can afford to be patient and make him work a little.

Let’s Go Mets!