213 Miles From Shea

Lets start off with the Roundoff:

Joe Mauer and the Twins, according to ESPN, reached a 4 year/33mil ext today. Mauer previously rejected adeal from them when he wanted to go about 1.2 mil more, they avoid arbritation with this move.

Some Corrections: (for the last post)

Thanks for pointed out LaRoche was traded, i knew that, i really did, just slipped my mind.

And yes, i do realize i misspelled loopers first name, but he blew a lot of wins for Pedro, i guess ill just misspell his first name for that.

This next statistical trick is for all you betters out there. There is a way to tell the chance of a batters first hit (with regard to whether it comes in his first at bat, second, and so forth). This stat is called geometretic probability and also can be calculated via a TI-83. Once again we are going to use our golden boy David Wright. The last number in the parethesis represents the AB that he will get his first hit. Therefore, if he gets his first hit in his third AB, that means he was 1-3 going 0-2 for his first two.

Geometpdf(.311,1): .311

Geometpdf(.311,2): ..214

Geometpdf(.311,3): .148

Geometpdf(.311,4): .103

Geometpdf(.311,5): .070

Now the better way to use this stat is the Geometeric Probabilty Cummiltive. What that means is the number that is crunched out is the probabilty that his first hit will come within two AB, three AB, and so forth. In other words, these probabilities represent that lets say by the 7th inning he has had 3 ABs, the number would represent the probability that he has had his first already.

Geometcdf(.311,1): .311

Geometcdf(.311,2): .525

Geometcdf(.311,3): .673

Geometcdf(.311,4): .775

Geometcdf(.311,5): .845

Once again these stats mean what u make of them, i like them cause they are just fun to make. Coming up i still have the fantasy line up review of the Mets Vs the Marlins, Nationals, Yankees and Orioles, and any other requested teams. Im also gonna do a review of a great website for photos and maybe a card box review of a new product that deserves some recognition.

Spring Training is around the corner. With Spring Training comes the answers to who will play that postion or who will round off the rotation. The real fighting for starting jobs happens.

We all know the Mets will have a fair share of this, with Rotation spots 3-5 free for starting pitchers, but today i read something MLB.com that nearly floored me about the possible 5-hole for the St. Louis Cardinals…Brandon Looper will be competing for that spot

Granted, the second half of the season, he did much better than the first half (06), but still, Looper? Thats insane…well i hope we eventually get to play him if he is starting, maybe we can watch that stupid grin he makes for 4 innings instead of 1 now.

In other news, ESPN reports, that Williams is not happy about going to Spring Training on a Minor League Contract, and probably wont do it

Good for him, that is straight up ridiculous and just wrong to do that to Bernie.

And Now, as promised, the Braves Starting Line-Up VS the Mets (According to Sportining News)

Martin Prado: 6.7 (Valtine 7.7)

Edgar Eenteria: 8.6 (Jose Reyes 9.6)

Chipper Jones: 8.5 (David Wright 9.2)

Andruw Jones: 9.6 (Beltran 9.2)

Jeff Francoeur: 8.8 (Green 7.0)

Brian McCann: 9.4 (LoDuca 8.3)

Adam LaRoche: 8.7 (Delgado 9.0)

Mat Diaz: 6.4 (Alou 7.7)

Braves Total: 66.7

Mets Total: 67.7

Interesting. This is a case where i think fantasy points will not tell the true difference in an offensive line up. The Phillies were around 65, and i think they are way more dangerous than the braves…I thimk the next time i do this, im also gonna average out the lineup, This will probably done for the remaining teams in the east, the yankees and against the orioles (cause deep down inside, a little part of me still loves thoses black and orange birds)

This is the start of a series of blogs I hope to run that applies binomial probability to batting averages

As a quick definition, binomial probability is the chance for something to occur that has two outcomes, either it happens or it doesnt. Now the two forms to look at are pdf and cdf, basically one is the chance of one situation happening, the other is less than or more than. One can use this to determine the exact probabilty of getting exactly one hit or the probability to get two hits or less.

The first set of numbers is if the batter, in this case our golden boy David Wright, had five chances in a game to bat.

So first we need a TI-83 Plus. The following is the probabilty of him getting exactly 0 hits, 1 hit, 2 hits, etc, the last number in the parenthesis is the number of hits the probabillity represents.

Binompdf(5,.311,0): .155

Binompdf(5,.311,1): .350

Binompdf(5,.311,2): .316

Binompdf(5,.311,3): .142

Binompdf(5,.311,4): .032

Binompdf(5,.311,5): .003

What does this all mean? Well one thing I have too much time and Baseball Season really needs to start. Second, the best probability is 1 hit, and followed close by getting two hits, which is great. Later I might set up the situation if Wright gets 4 AB's in a game.

So to sum up, bring your graphing calculator to the ballpark with ur score card, cause it can produce some interesting debates

Later I will be posting another one of these, as well as a daily roundup and similar to the Phillies Vs Mets, I will be posting another version, Braves Vs Mets.

So besides being on the winning team for the Carribean Series, A. Hernandez has a new item to put on his resume as well.

He has been named as the All-Star for the second base for the Carribian Series

(from mlb.com)

Congrats man. Just take that offense back to Shea

Also, mets.com has new photos of CitiField, including seat construction

-Elliot

4 days 20 hr 15 min 10 sec

7 days 20 hr 15 min 10 sec

The first set of numbers is the remaining time until the first team in the MLB has pitchers and catchers reporting, the second is the remaining time for the Mets

First off, ESPN reports that Arroyo has reached a two year extension with the Reds (for around 25 mil)

Other news from Yesterday at mlbtraderumors.com is that:

Shannon Stewart signs with the A's

They also report that the Rockies are interested in Pavano, only if the Yanks cover 15 mil of that.

Its understandable that the Yankees would want to trade Pavano due to Phillips coming up thru their system…but thats a lot of coverage

Now on to 2009, if you are reading this, then u probably already read at metsblog.com or at mlbtraderumors.com about the Mets “pursuing” Johan Santana for 09

I love baseball and the offseason. Especially when we look foward to the offseason before the 09 season. The thought of Johan pitching in what should be a pitcher friendly CitiField with Wright, Reyes around him, and possibly F-mart with them….wow

So a few posts ago, I typed up the Sporting News Preview for the Mets Players….now for what should be their main competition, the Phillies (in parenthesis will be the Mets equivelant for position)

Jimmy “Trash Talkin” Rollins: 9.2 (Reyes 9.6)

Shane Victorino: 7.7 (Green 7.0)

Ryan Howard: 9.8 (Delgado 9.0)

Chase Utley: 9.5 (Valetin 7.7)

Pat Burell: 7.7 (Alou 7.7)

Aaron Rowand: 8.0 (Beltran 9.2)

Wes Helms: 7.0 (Wright 9.2)

Carlos Ruiz: 6.3 (LoDuca 8.3)

Phillies Total Score: 65.2

Mets Total Score: 67.7

Whoa….let the Race Begin

Btw, if u have not picked up Sporting News Baseball Preview…pick it up, its not exactly fantasy like everything up that is out their right now and for 8 dollars, with over 750 reviews and predictions, its well worth it

Anderson Hernandez has a new thing to add to his resume, the Domincan Republic is the 2007 Carribian Series Champs!…now on to the rest of the news.

The Baltimore Sun repots that Derek Jeter expects Clemens to pitch next year (although Jeter says he doesnt know where)

A few days ago i said that i was sick of the Bonds Talk, well this is topic 2 that i really dont like, i really dont like Clemens talk at all…its not necessary

The Baltimore Sun also reports that Francona doesnt expect Papelbon to go back to the bullpen.

In Trax news, the Nats, Twins, and Astros are essentially out (mlbtraderumors.com)…but Trax's agent says two teams are still interested in him

Im happy if its not the Mets

Also, Im assuming that a lot of people who read this, live relativily close to the Mets. Well in Baltimore today, we got 2 inches of snow, and the state flipped out and cancelled school across the state…cause the people down here absoultly hate the white stuff

First off, thanks to the author of Mookie number 1 in your program and your heart, for your help, as soon as school eases up a lil bit im gonna try that site to get that banner up

That url btw is “mookiewilson.metsblog.com”, and by name alone, you should check it out, and its got great content.

So looking back at my old posts, there is some info i left out. My name is Elliot and im an 18 year old senior at the local high school in Owings Mills. Besides the wieght training coach, and my family here, there are really no other mets fans, and ESPN is the only way to get mets news generally. Therefore the Internet is the big way to get mets news.

One thing i hope to start soon is baseball card reviews here. I see a lot of products out their on the market, and got some def. opinions about some of them. Including some that give you a lot of lil hits now, that can be worth big in 5 years, if these guys make it out of the minors.

Anyway enough about that, onto some news:

Fox Sports reported yesterday that General Manager  (or maybe the owner, i dont recall) of the Giants, sent a letter out to season ticket holders explaining why he resigned bonds….

Im starting to get sick of the Barry Bonds soap opera, although i found this news rather funny and out there, so had to report it

The Mets Spring Training truck left today, which means baseball is on its way.

Mike Piazza is a father now! Congrats Mike! (Baby Girl)

Hall and the Brewers reached a 4-year extension

MLB.com is going to start announcing the five greatest Negro Baseball Teams in history, which is something that is way over due.

Other news, mlbtraderumors.com reports that one of the reasons belliard might not be signed yet is he is involved in a federal extoration case….I am not a belliard fan at all btw. That sight also reports that Dustin Hrmanson will work out for the Phils and be watched by the Reds next week.

Speaking of the Phils, I will have the results for them from Sportining News up in a few days

Peace

As promised here is the grades that Sporting News gave for the hitting order and the starting rotation:

Jose “The Spark” Reyes: 9.6

Paul “Catch” LoDuca: 8.3

Carlos Beltran: 9.2

Carlos Delgado: 9.0

David Wright: 9.2

Moises Alou: 7.7

Shawn Green: 7.0

Jose Valetin: 7.7

The Mets are one of the Few teams, if not the only, that do not have anyone in their hitting order with a rank less than seven, which says a lot about their offense…but these rankings are higly suggestive, and we already knew their offenses was pretty amazing.

Tom Glavine: 8.1

El Duque: 7.4

John Maine: 7.1

Mike Pelfry: 7.3

Oliver Perez: 7.5

Billy Wagner: 9.3

Ummm…..not so good. I think they are a little harsh on Maine, but they do say he is on the rise. I also thing Wagner here is a little overated…hes a heartattack on hte mound…or the postive way to look at it is that he makes things interesting.

Under Young Guns in the Front, they list Pelfry as number 3 out of 10 in the NL.

“A strikeout-to-walk ratio of almost 3-to-1 in two minor league seasons has the Mets excited. But injury concerns, including shoulder stiffness that shorneted his Arizona Fall League season, has them proceeding with Caution”

Not a Bad write up. I really look foward sometimes to 2012 when Wright and Reyes will be in their prime, Abreu and Martinez in the outfield and a strong rotation with Pelfry and Humber. O yeah, and Burgos as a closer….knock on wood and i hope this happens.

Picked up a copy of Sporting News Preview yesterday.

Here are some of their more interesting predictions:

Twins over Mets in the World Series

Their top five in MLB is as follows: Twins, Tigers, Yankees, Mets, Phillies

Most expect a drop in the Howard HR count cause pitchers will know how to pitch to him.

Jose Reyes got a score of 9.6

David Wright got a score of 9.2

I should post more of their predictiosn later