213 Miles From Shea

Today the Mets try to do something they did very little of last year, which is step on the necks of their opposing team, as said a lot on Metsblog. Although sweeping is not necessary to make the playoffs, consider this. Tomorrow the Mets will take their bats to Philly, who after today's win in Houston just got back to .500. If the Mets lose today, they too will be back at .500. However, with a win today, the Mets will be two games above .500 thus, unless the Phils sweep them, will come out of that series .500 or better.
Sweeping is really important though in streaking. If the Mets win tonight, they really have a winning streak. Long winning streaks build cushions. Cushions lead to far separations which leads to the Boo's going away.
That being said the Mets will bat against Lannan tonight. So far this year, Lannan is 0-2, in 2 Games with 10.2 innings, a 6.75 ERA, 7 BB, and 6 K. The damage was done by Francor in his Lannan's last start. Frank had 5 RBI”s that night, so when the Wright did that too the Nationals two nights ago, the National announcers were drawing all sorts comparisons between the two players.
Last season Lannan had one start vs the Mets which he lost. He pitched 5.2 innings, had a 7.94 ERA, 5 ER, BB, 3 K. Hopefully the Mets will rough him up again tonight. Last season was Lannan's first in the majors, and made six starts. The big players in that game last year were:
    Castillo 2-3, HR, 2 RBI
    Reyes 2-3, 2B
    Wright 1-3, 2B, 2 RBI
Lets hope from some repeat stats tonight! Crack out the brooms and lets go for it!

Game two of the three game set vs the Nationals features Maine vs Chico. I like Chico a lot. I feel that he has the capability of being the ace of the Nationals stats, but as some of the stats in this post will show, he is a future ace of the Nationals that hits a wall against the Mets. I couldn't find inning by inning stats of Chico but I seem to remeber last year it felt like when we played him, he would be very good, and then have a horrible inning and have to go. (August 17th I believe he was strong against the Mets and then hit a wall, allowed 4 runs over 5, and then the Nats pen ended up giving up another 4). Anyway here are some Chico stats.
So far this year, he has had one very good game, that came after a pretty bad game (0-2 record). (3.72 ERA)
First start: 6.0 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
Second start: 8.0 IP, 5H, ER, HR, BB, 3K
In his last start, the Nationals lost 1-0 and Chico made one mistake, which was a homerun to Escobar of the Braves. In 2007, Chico put these stats up on the Mets:
4 G, 2-2, 20.1 IP, 6.20 ERA, 9 BB, 8 K.
The following Mets have put these numbers up on Chico:
    Reyes 3-9, 2 2B, 3 BB (.500 OBP)
    Wright 4-9, 2B, 3 RBI, 2 BB (.500 OBP)
    Beltran 1-9, 2 BB
After last night, Wright became tied for second in the majors with 15 RBI, tied for first in the National League.

Tonight the Nationals come to town after just ending their 9 game losing streak. The Nationals started off hot on a 3 game losing streak and just lost complete control from there. Anyway, the Nationals “ace” will be pitching against the Mets tonight (I personally feel that Chico is their best pitcher) and his name is Odalis Perez.
So far this year, Perez has pitched in 3 games for the Nats to the tune of a 0-2 record. He has pitched 14.2 IP, 4.91 ERA, 5 BB, and 10 K. He has some history with current Mets and these are their stats against him:
    Castillo 22 AB, 9 H, 3B, HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB, .409 BA, .458 OBP
    Chavez 13 AB, 4 H, .308 BA
    Clark 11 AB, 3 H, 2 2b
    Beltran 3-6
    Delgado 0-5
    Wright 2-5
I find it interesting that tonight Castillo is being moved to the eighth spot of the line up because of his history with Perez. Right now, Church makes more sense to be batting 2nd with his stats, but you would think the move would happen tomorrow night because Castillo can see the ball well from Perez.
That being said I wonder how much this move in the line up tonight is being influenced by Mets fans and media pressure. I assume very little, but it is still something to think about.
Lets Go Mets.

As I said earlier this weekend, today I would start pulling apart other statistics through the first four series of the 2008 Baseball season. The difference between this series of posts, and the other Numbers Daily posts that look at the numbers from each series, including the series before them, working like bench marks for the season. These posts look at scoring tendencies from each two, three, or four game sets.
This time we are gong to travel back a bit look at the first series with the Marlins again:
Game 1: Mets 7, Marlins 2
Game 2: Mets 4, Marlins 5, F/10
Game 3: Mets 13, Marlins 0
 
In the first game the Mets had 10 hits, gave up 5.
Second game, Mets had 9 hits, and the Marlins matched that.
In the third game, the Mets had 17 hits! The Marlins had 6.

So the Mets averaged 8 runs for each of those games this year, and 12 hits per game.
The Mets allowed 2.3 runs per game, and allowed on average 6.67 hits per game.

Now for the scoring tendencies. I find patterns interesting for scores per inning because over a period of time, they can spell out the thinking properties for the Mets. For example, if they do not score for an extended period of time in the first 3 innings, they are either unsettled and need to relax before the game, or they can't figure out the pitcher the first time through. A lack of scoring late can signify that the other team is starting clamp down and try to take control of the game. Can we deduce anything from innings scores of the first three games?
Game 1: 6 runs in the 4th, 1 run in the 9th
Game 2: 3 runs in the 4th, 1 run in the 5th
Game 3: 3 runs in the 2nd, 1 run in the 3rd, 1 run in the 5th, 5 runs in the 6th, 1 run in the 7th, 2 runs in the 9th
Totals By inning: (first numbers total by inning, second numbers avg per game)
1st- 0, 0
2nd- 3, 1
3rd- 1, .333
4th- 9, 3
5th- 2, .667
6th- 5, 1.67
7th- 1, .333
8th- 0,0
9th-3,1
10-0,0
The only thing thats slightly noticeable about the trends is that for two games straight, the mets had big middle innings, (4th, then 4th and 5th and then 5th and 6th). From recent memory, ie this past weekend, the Mets did not have this. I have always been a proponent for scoring in the middle innings because it separates one team from the other in the long stretch of the marathon. This also says a lot about the Marlins starting pitching, that they could the Mets for the first few innings, and then they started unravellings.
I find these numbers interesting, but I find all numbers interesting.

There were some new power rankings at MLB.com today, and as anyone could predict, a 5-6 record had the Mets drop a bit in the rankings. Last week they were at 5 and they dropped to 9 this week saying ” Sure, you knew that the Amazin's RBI co-leader in mid-April would be Angel Pagan”
What a pleasant surprise he has been.
Other surprising notes were last week, the Orioles were not ranked, and this week they are at 11.
Philadelphia and Atlanta both have not been ranked for at least two weeks now.
Arizona, hands down is the league's best right now.
The Tigers have been dropped from 7 to 14 on the rankings.
The rankings can be found here.

The Mets have now played through four series with a record of 5-6. For what its worth, I believe the Mets had a lot of problems last year winning on the weekends, especially day games on the weekends, and the past two weekends, the Mets have not won on Saturday and Sunday. Anyway, a few quick comments on today's game. The double plays is what killed the Mets. They hit into 4 today, which killed rallies left and right.
Another quick note, before getting to the point of this post, have you ever “watched” a game using MLB Gameday? Give it a try next time you watch a game. Set it by your TV set and follow along. Not only do you get stat updates, but you can see pitching tendencies against pitchers. For example, in Schnieder's third hit today, they threw him 6 fastballs, and the 7th he hit as a single. Its interesting to watch and you learn indirectly about scouting.
Anyway here are some Mets numbers through the first four series this seasons:
The Mets scored 58 runs.
The Mets have allowed 47 runs.
The Mets on average score 5.27 runs.
The Mets on average allow 4.27 runs.
The Mets have struck out 79 batters so far. Thats an average of 7.18 a game.
The Mets, before this series, had 3 SB. In the last three games, they stole 4. Now they have 7 on the season, .63 a game.

The Mets and Brewers square off in the rubber match today. The last two times the Mets were put in a rubber match situation (Phillies and Marlins) they won the rubber game. Winning the rubber game, and winning series all year is the key to making the playoffs. It should be another good pitching match-up at Shea today when Oliver Perez will take on Jeff Suppan, who has a history with many of the current Mets from 2006 playoffs.
Suppan is off to a strong start with the Brewers. In his first two games (1-0), he has pitched 13.1 innings allowing 12 hits, 3 earned runs (2.03 ERA), walked 4 and striking out 3. In 2007 against the Mets, he pitched two games, posting a 0-1 records, 12.1 innings, 4.38 ERA, 3 BB and a K. In 2007, the Mets posted these stats against him:
    Reyes 6 AB, 2 H, 2B, BB, .333 BA, .429 OBP
    Castillo 5 AB, 0 H
    Delgado 6 AB, 2 H, HR, 2 RBI, .333 BA, .33 OBP
    Wright 5 AB, 3 H, HR, 2 RBI, BB, .600 BA, .667 OBP
The following Mets have these stats over their careers against Suppan:
    Delgado 35 AB, 8 H, 2 HR, 5 RBI
    Clark 31 AB, 10 H, 2B, HR, 6 RBI
    Wright 9 AB, 4 H, HR, 2 RBI
    Schneider 16 AB, 7 H, 2 2B, 4 RBI
What these stats show is that last year, Delgado hit Suppan slightly better than he has over his career and that Wright has been pretty consistent against Suppan. Clark's stats suggest that if they want to give Church a day off in the field, tomorrow will be a good day to do it, also if they decide to take Perez out early, and Suppan is still pitching, then Clark should go in to pinch hit against Suppan.

Perez so far this season is 1-0, 2 G, 11.2 IP, 8 H, 4 BB, 10 K, 0.00 ERA. The good Perez has showed up twice this season and tomorrow, the good Perez will try to show up for the third time this season. In 2007, 2 G, he was 2-0 vs the Brewers pitching 14.1 innings pitched, 3.14 ERA, 5 BB, and 17 K's. No one has hit him particularly well (if they have had over 10 AB against him). For example, Bill Hall has had 15 AB, 2 H, 3 RBI, 3 BB and 8 K. (He has struck out over half the times he has faced Perez!)

Since this post is two days late, it will be shorter than its last version and the one after the tomorrow's game will be longer. Basically the goal of these entries is to see how the Mets have been progressing through the season, thus on Monday, that entry will be more comparative than this entry. There are not many stats to highlight in this one, but here it goes:
Through the Mets first 8 games, the Mets have scored 44 runs.
Mets opponents have scored 31 runs.
First off, this shows the impact of that 13-0 game the Mets played, because now thats the difference in the stats. While its hard to infer stats with such an influencer like that game, it indicates that overall, the Mets offense has been barely matching their opponents, on average. This can been seen mainly through the 3 homers the Mets have had in their first 8 games (2 of them actually coming in that 13-0 romp, further showing the slowing of the Mets offense recently).
On average, the Mets have scored 5.5 runs a game, and their opponents have scored on average 3.87 runs a game.

The other slightly strange stat from the first 8 games the Mets have only stolen 3 bases. This was changed in the first game of the Brewer series where the Mets stole 3 bases in that game. Anyway, thru the first 8 games, the Mets have averaged .375 stolen bases a game, which is way down from last year. A no-brainer prediction says that this starts to get closer to last year as the season goes on.

The Second Place Mets take on the Second Place Brewers today in another key pitching match-up. Last time Santana pitched, he was against Smoltz, now he is going against Sheets. (It is really great to say Santana's name vs these great pitchers, it really evens things out and possibly tips the scale more in the Mets favor.
The Mets are currently on their best winning streak of the season, riding it out to three games. The Brewers on the other hand are currently on their longest losing streak of the season, which was dragged out to three games last night. The Mets want to push it to four, the Brewers want to stop the slide, it will be a battle of the Aces today to see which team gets there way.
Sheets, 1-0, has pitched in 2 games this year, 15.1 IP, 7 H, 0.00 ERA with 2 BB and 15 K. Last year in one game against the Mets, he picked up the win pitching 6 innings, allowing 3 runs, 4 hits, 2 walks and 5 K. Here are some current Mets vs. Sheets:
    Castillo: 16 AB, 7H, 3B, RBI, 3BB, .438 BA, .526 OBP
    Anderson: 13 AB 7 H, 2B, RBI, BB, .538 BA, .600 OBP
    Wright: 4 AB, 3H, 2B, BB, .750 BA, .800 OBP
    Reyes: 9 AB, H, .111 BA, .111 OBP
In other words, good day for Castillo to come back, good day for Reyes to sit out.
Santana so far this season is 1-1 in 2 G, 14.0 IP, 10 H, 1.93 ERA, 2 BB, 11 K. Here are some of the the current Brewers stats against Santana.
    Kendall: 14 AB, H, BB, .071 BA, .133 OBP
    Hall: 12 AB, 2 H, 2B, .167 BA, .167 OBP
    Weeks: 2 AB, 2 H, 3B, HR, RBI, BB, 1.000 BA, 1.000 OBP
As you can see, Weeks has success against Santana and hopefully he will not continue that today. (I mean we are basing it off of 2 AB).

With no longer having the best record in the National League (that honor going to the Diamondbacks and the Cardinals now), the Brew Crew come into town a half a game out of first place. The Mets, now second place in the NL East (before they played the Phillies, they were last) have a game and a half to get to that first place plateau.
Tonight's match up places Parra vs Figueroa. Parra is an interesting pitcher. Last year, he appeared in 9 games for the Brew Crew, including two games that he started. He pitched 26.1 IP and had a 3.76 ERA. This Spring, he made the starting rotation with these numbers: 2-2, 6.10 ERA, 20.2 IP, 10 BB, 19 K, 8.27 K/9, 9.58 H/9. In other words, this looks to be much like a strike-out and hitting based game. Some current Mets have had some AB against Parra, only Reyes having any real success:
    Castillo 0-3
    Delgado 0-3
    Reyes 2-3
    Wright 0-2, BB
    Easley 1-1
Three current Brewers have had AB against Figueroa:
    Counsell 2-6, 2 RBI
    Hall 1-2, RBI
    Kendall 0-1, BB
In other related notes, Kendall is leading the majors in BA, posting a .538 so far this season. Hall is one of 5 players right now in the majors with 4 homers, Reynolds of the Dbacks leads with 5.
This should be an interesting game, lets see if the Mets can keep the magic going tonight.