213 Miles From Shea

Today's game was the best way the Mets could have started the season. David Wright hitting a two run home run in the first inning to put the Mets in the lead says a ton of things for this Mets team this year (although I want to be careful about extrapolating statistics too much):

Sadly I wasn't able to watch the game today (instead I had to take a Quantum Mechanics Midterm, try not to be too jealous of me), but from what I have seen from clips, that atmosphere looked electric. It was great to see so many Mets fans in the stands, making noise, and celebrating a great game played by the amazin's. Lets hope the rest of the season is like this, because honestly, winning one right now, feels really good.

Opening Day! Ace vs Ace! With all of the terrible facts about the Mets your “friends” might be telling you today, in order to bring you down, here's one you can tell them. The Mets have the longest active Opening Day winning streak at 4 games and have the best overall Opening Day record at 31-17 (and of course, knock on wood to hope all of that continues). Anyway our ace returns to the mound today to battle a pitcher who is always ready to play the Mets, Josh Johnson. Both Santana and Johnson have had success agains their opponents today, meaning today could be a pitching duel.

Let's break down Santana. Last season Santana went 13-9 over 166.2 innings pitched and had a 3.13 ERA. He pitched against the Marlins twice to the tune of a 0-1 record, but during that time he had a 1.29 ERA and 20 K's. Historically, Santana baffles the Marlins' lineup:

The key for Santana will be keeping the ball in the park. His biggest weakness last year was the longball. As long as he can keep the ball in the park, then he should have no problem. As the numbers show above, statistically, the Marlins whiff often vs Santana, which would be a nice trend to start the season on.

Johnson was the Mets kryptonite last season. Against all opponents, Johnson was 15-5, pitched 209 innings and had a 3.23 ERA. Against the Mets, he pitched four games, lasted 28.0 innings, had a 3-0 record, 22 K and a “nice” 2.89 ERA. In the past, the Mets have been able to put up these numbers individually against Johnson:

First criticism of Jerry Manual for the new season. If you want your lineup to have a statistical advantage, wouldn't you want Tatis at first base today? He is getting 2 hits out of every 3 trips against Johnson in his carear, and those numbers are really striking. Also key note to make, the Mets just saw Johnson last week. Originally, Johnson would have not pitched against the Mets since he was going to see them again today, but he missed his previous start due to illness and needed another start against Major League hitting. During that last Spring outing, David Wright took Johnson deep as did Jason Bay (and Chris Carter, who is on his way to Buffalo).

Today is the start of a long marathon, and looks to be an exciting start as the ace of the Mets take on the ace of the Marlins in Citi Field. Lets go Mets! Fry the Fish!

It's cliche. It's expected. It has to be done.

Tonight the Yankees will take on the Red Sox and start the marathon that will be the 2010 baseball season. Last year, for us Mets fans, felt like the longest marathon in the world. It was as if in the middle of the race someone attached weights and chains to our feet. We made it to end of the marathon, everyone makes it to the end, but it was not a delightful experience.

Well hope springs eternal. Tonight starts another marathon where mathematically right now everyone is at the same point. We all can boast 0-0 records and all having a share of first place. Every team has strengths, every team has weaknesses. Every team will have surprises good and bad.

As Mets fans, we need to channel what the marketing department of the Mets are telling us to right now. We need to believe in comebacks. We need to believe that this is our year. If we don't, then we are mentally putting ourselves behind other teams.

Win or lose, its baseball, and its back. Another summer of ups and downs and following the best and the most interesting team in the Major Leagues, the New York Mets.

Play ball, and lets go Mets.
-Elliot Teichman

Tomorrow is Opening Day and will start another marathon for the New York Mets. The Mets have basically become the insult bag for the major leagues, where pretty much every media outlet doesn't think twice about insulting the Amazin's. As stated earlier today, predictions for this team have ranged from Wild Card to basement. The reason for the wide variety of predictions is no one knows how to handle the Mets. Last year, they were a World Series team in the preseaon. Then they got injured, and no one knows where their potential actually is. They can be that tough team that wins the division, or they can also fall flat on their face.

I like to think of it as the Mets represent baseball. That results are pretty much unpredictable.

Anyway, the main strength for the Mets this year is their lineup. Even without Reyes and Beltran, this is a tough lineup. As soon as Reyes and Beltran come back, this lineup gets that much better. We have spent a lot of time this offseason argueing about firstbase. Although I side with Murphy, honestly I don't think we need to be worrying about firstbase too much, as long as Reyes and Belran are healthy.

Pagan is a great example of how this team needs to perform, and he could be a microcosm for the entire team. He has tremendous talent like the team, but doesnt always play the fundalementals. Play good fundalmentals, get good resutls.

While the lineup is the strength for this team, the rotation is the weakness. Honestly, who knows what we are going to get out of Perez, Pelfrey and Maine. If the three of them perform like they have in the past, when they work together, this is going to be a good team. If they don't, then this team is going to have rely on the bullpen and the lineup.

Overall, the media isn't expecting much of the Mets this year. This is the time for the Mets to show what they can do. A good April will do this team a lot of good. It will shake off 2009, it will shake off the critics and they will be doing it without Beltran. I'm optimistic about this season, and you should be too.

Predictions are pretty fickle. Very few people, and I do not think I'm one of them, know enough about baseball to make fair and accurate predictions for all 30 teams. The reason is most people specialize in one team, they follow one team, they know the most about one team. What other teams do they know about? The teams that are geographically close to them. For example an Orioles beat writer would probably (surprisingly to some) know more about the Nationals than any team in the AL East because of the National's proximity to Baltimore and that Oriole beat writer probably works with a Nationals beat writer.

How do these people then make predictions? Well its probably not to far from what I do. For teams we don't know much about, we look at their record from last year, their numbers from last year, and who they added and lost. This strategy is fairly effective, except for one blaring example. The team crippled by injuries. Think about it. If all you have to write is a short blurb about a team in a prediction, the thought process for a team like the 2009 Mets would go something like this:

Honestly I'm pretty sure thats how it goes. When you look at, there are generally very few differences in predictions for an upcoming season when compared to the final standings from previous season. I'll end with a list of writers and websites, and their predictions for where the Mets will finish this year.

With the final four starting today, you would think over the last week the basketball world would be buzzing about the possible Cinderella story in Butler. However, there has been a lot of focus on a very unfortunate inevitability that will probably surface soon: the NCAA tournament expanding to 96 teams.

For those of you who don't follow college basketball. The National Champion is crowned from the NCAA tournament which invites 65 teams to play. First there is a 1 game play in for teams “64” and “65”. Then the rest of the tournament is broken down to the opening round, round of 32, sweet 16, elite 8, final four and the championship. The Bracket is broken into 4 divisions (that are supposedly geographic, but not really) and teams are ranked 1 to 16 in each bracket. If the tournament is expanded to 96 teams, then the first 8 teams in each quarter of the bracket will get a first round bye.

The issue here that 96 teams dilutes the playing field down to a level of mediocrity that is just not fun to watch. Teams get selected to the field of 65 from a combination of conference championships and then at-large bids. To get an at-large bid, a team has to play well in the beginning part of the year (non-conference) and then really play well in the conference. This new format basically says “Hey, we don't care about the regular season at all, (just about) everyone gets to play for the championship!”

This is where other leagues (including you NBA and NHL) should look at the major leagues. When only 4 teams from each league make the playoffs, it first shows that a high level of competition will be making the playoffs and it makes the playoff races more exciting. Its very hard making the 9 seed chasing the 8 seed for that final playoff spot seem exciting when both teams are most likely barely over .500, and that first team is almost a sure bet to lose to the number 1 seed in the first round of the playoffs.

MLB playoff format has shown how the Wild Card makes for an exciting last month of the season, and has a good chance of making it to the World Series. This is what the NCAA is about fall into. The conference tournaments right now are exciting because a bubble team can snatch up a bid and force someone else out. Once this 96 team format starts the NCAA will go from a playoff race that is exciting like the MLB to one that is like the NHL/NBA, where just about anyone with a winning record gets to play. 

With the season starting tomorrow, its time to look at the MLB Playoffs this year. Starting with the American League, here are the teams that made the playoffs, and how I think the games will break down:

The NL Playoffs:

And the World Series Prediction:

When ESPN first starting making websites specifically for cities, my first reaction was “Why aren't they starting with New York?” By the time they got down to Dallas, I was baffled. Well they finally made an ESPN New York site and at least for Mets fans, it should feel fairly familiar. Adam Rubin will be covering the Mets for the website, so we can expect the same great coverage that he provides.

As for the feeling of New York? Well its hard to tell right now. Like the other websites, its basically ESPN, with all of the other cities taken out (so if you are like me and have teams in different areas, Baltimore Ravens, then this may not be ideal). For example, right now they are doing a Sports Census to see where people's alliances align.

The website also features direct links to ESPN 1050 to make it feel even more “New York”. Actually, not only is there writing from ESPN 1050, you can stream it live right from the website. In addition to 1050, there are twitter feeds, an ABC 7 New York feed, and schedule feeds only for New York/Northern NJ teams. Overall, I'm impressed by the site and I look forward to reading it this season.

Interesting tweet this morning from Troy Renck, Denver Post, Rockies:

First off, I don't know if I have said this yet this offseason, but when did the phrase “kicking the tires” become so popular. I have known about it for a very long time, but I feel that 1 out of every 3 or 4 rumors I here now starts off with “kicking the tires”. If I had to guess why the phrase has become more popular, I think its directly related to Twitter. Think about it. Twitter provides short, 140 character, blogging. Meaning it is the perfect venue for a quick thought, specially one that does not have a substantial amount of source or breadth. It's hard to make an entire blog article or any article about a GM saying “yeah, we might be interested in that guy”, but thats perfect for a tweet.

Back on track though.

Redding signed a minor league deal with the Rockies this offseason. It would probably not take a lot for the Phillies to acquire Redding, but honestly, if I were in charge of the Phillies, I would leave Redding alone. Its not worth to go get him to replace Blanton. The Phillies have enough internal options and honestly, you are not going to get anything special out of Redding. (Of course, since it is the Phillies, if they get Redding, he end up having a Cy Young type year).

The preview journey through all of the division ends today with the NL East. Although I am biased, I think the NL East is an incredibly deep division. Unlike other divisions that do not have clear winners because mediocrity, the NL East has several teams, that under the right conditions, that can make serious runs.  Here's the breakdown of the division:

1. Phillies: At this point they are the team to beat. With back to back pennants, a powerful lineup, and a (overated) rotation, the Phillies are the team with the best chance to take the division again. Their weakness will be again the rotation and the bullpen (no problems with their lineup). I still feel that overall they have been lucky with their rotation working, so if the rotation stutters, its on to the bullpen, which is also mess. However, the lineup is really good. Good enough that makes average pitching into great pitching because of the confidence in the team's ability to score.

2. Mets: The Mets and the Braves will be in a tight race all year. The Mets are above the Braves because (I'm Biased) of the lineup. The Braves have a fantastic rotation, but the Mets could also have a good rotation. The problem is the Mets could also have a terrible rotation. There is so much that can be said about this team that you will have to wait till the Mets Preview article to here my full explanation of why the Mets will be in second and in the Wild Card hunt.

3. Braves: Fantastic Rotation. Not so fantastic lineup. Heyward will a great impact for this team, but that is a lot of pressure for a rookie. I still think the Braves will need to make another move in order to get into second in this division, to help bolster their offense.

4. Marlins: Flordia always surprises me, so I won't be surprised if they finish higher than 4th. Their lineup is still together and strong, the question is on the pitching staff. For them its beyond the rotation but also in the pen.

5. Nationals: They have made a lot of rebuilding moves over the winter and they are finally going to be seen as their pitching will be better and their offense will be better than it has in the past. They could finish higher than 5th depending on how their rookies perform.