How Many First Round Picks Make It to the Majors?

We all know that to some degree, the MLB Draft is a bit of a crap shoot. However a team's first round pick should at least make it to the majors, right? Here I am not concerned with whether or not the first round player was effective once he came up, I just want to know if the player actually made it to the majors. The other ground rule for this study is that I am including the supplemental first round as first round picks. Below is a graph that looks at percentage of players that made it to the majors:

And the Raw Data:

Made It Picks Season Percentage
23 35 1996 0.657143
31 52 1997 0.596154
30 43 1998 0.697674
23 51 1999 0.45098
24 40 2000 0.6
26 44 2001 0.590909
27 41 2002 0.658537
26 37 2003 0.702703
27 41 2004 0.658537
35 48 2005 0.729167

Notable Draft Picks that didn't make it:

2005: Wade Townsend 8th pick (Rays). Brandon Snyder 12th pick (Orioles).
2004: Matthew Bush 1st overall pick (Padres)
2003: Kyle Sleeth 3rd pick (Tigers)
2002: Christopher Gruler 3rd pick (Reds)
2001: Josh Karp 6th pick (Expos). Chris Smith 7th pick (Orioles)
2000: Mike Stodolka 4th pick (Royals)
1999: Corey Myers 4th pick (Dbacks), BJ Garbe 5th pick (Twins), Josh Girdley 6th pick (Expos)
1998: Ryan Millers 6th pick (Twins)
1997: Geoff Goetz 6th pick (Mets)
1996: Matt White 7th pick (Giants), Chad Green 8th pick (Brewers)

So I'm going to be careful about drawing conclusions from the graph but a few things stick out. First in the 10 year stretch from 1996 to 2005, no season has had more than 72% of the player make it to the majors. There also seems to be a trend of more players making it to the majors in recent years. This probably means one of two things. Either draft reports are getting better, so the better players are being drafted in the first round. Or, teams are more likely to rush players to the majors, meaning poor ability players are actually playing in the majors where in the past they may not have. Most likely, it is a combination of both situations.
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Mets Breakfast

Some quick hits to go with your Tuesday morning Blueberry Frosted Mini-Wheat:

1) The Reds are close to a minors deal for GMJ

2) I really don't want to comment about the Maine situation, but I feel that if I don't, then this isn't a Mets related blog. So here I go: The whole Maine situation really brings me down because of the high hopes around him. I hope things get better and he comes back at some point in his career, but things are looking grim.

3) I'm still fairly elated that Mejia will be going to AA to become a starter.

4) Ready for a blast from the past? Jorge Sosa was DFA'd.

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Memorabilia Monday: Shea Stadium Cup Holder

As long as there is a buyer, one can (theoretically) sell anything. That has really been the case with the dismantlement of Shea Stadium as bizarre pieces to our beloved home make their way to the market place. When Shea Stadium was first being stripped of things that can be sold, there were popular items like chairs and bricks. Items that any reasonable person would expect to be sold as memorabilia.

However, other pieces of Shea have been surfacing since 2008. Some are funny (like Ketchup/Mustard dispensers), some leave you questioning why would they break that item up (like individual lightbulb holders from the scoreboard) and others just make you wonder. That is what we are celebrating here today. This item was found on a site that is selling old items from Shea, and I just can't imagine who would actually buy this, but I'm sure people have and will:

That's right. It's a cup holder taken straight from the seat. Ladies and Gentlemen, your Monday Memorabilia.
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Mets Breakfast

Some quick hits to go with your Monday morning Vanilla Milkshake Poptarts:

1) The Mets have now dropped two straight, however they wrapped up a 7-2 road series, which is still pretty fantastic so let's bring that into home stand starting on Tuesday.

2) The Mets finally sent down Meija. Now lets hope he can become a starter.

3) Sucks that the Braves won each of the last two days.

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Game Preview: Mets @ Yankees

The Mets took game one. The Yankees took game two. Now it will be the battle of the aces today in a rubber match to determine whether the Mets win three road series in a row, whether the Mets will win the total subway series for 2010 or if the Mets and Yankees will spilt the 2010 series. As stated several times over the last few days, this pitching match ups this series were identical to the first 2010 subway series, and one of the most anticipated pitching matchups will happen again this afternoon as Johan takes on CC.

Santana has been off as of late, but hopefully he will get back on the right track this afternoon as he takes on the Yankees. On the season Johan is 5-3 with a 3.13 ERA. In his last two starts he has pitched 13.2 innings while allowing 8 ER, however just before that he had an amazing stretch of games including a good start against the Yankees where he picked up the win after pitching 7.2 innings allowing only one ER. The Yankees have these numbers against Santana:

Jeter 13-30, 4 2B, HR
Arod 5-26, 2 HR
Tex 7-30, 2B, HR
Cano 8-20, 2B
Posada 2-15, 2 2B

The Mets handled CC pretty well earlier this season, and they hope to repeat this afternoon. CC on the season is 7-3 with a 4.00 ERA. He is 3-0 over his last three starts as he pitched 17.0 innings with a 3.43 ERA. When he faced the Mets this season he picked up the loss as he allowed 6 runs, 5 earned over 5 innings of work. The Mets have these numbers on Sabatha:

Barajas 9-22, 3 2B, 3 HR
Bay 3-11, 2 HR
Wright 1-6, 2B
Davis 2-3
Reyes 2-3

Lets Go Mets!

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The NL East Is The Best Division Baseball (With Facts)

Here's a debate that happens, well all the time. Who plays in the best division in baseball? Generally when you have these discussions people talk like but they have the two best teams in the majors! This of course brings people to say “but you are not including those low market teams! They have great talent!”. These arguments can sometimes be resolved (to some degree) with numbers.

After running a Spreadsheet including wins and losses for every team in every division I feel confident in this statement:

Through Friday, June 18, the NL EAST statistically by wins and losses is the best division in baseball. However not by much. They beat out the AL EAST by .002 points. It ended up being really close. Anyway here are the numbers in order from best to worst:

NL East: .5283
AL East: .5266
NL West: .5223
AL West: .4982
AL Central: .4864
NL Central: .4480

These numbers are not so surprising when you think through them. Once you establish that the NL has the leagues best division, then it is expected that league will also carry baseball's worst etc. What was surprising was how geographically (almost by markets) the list breaks down. The East is the Best, followed by the West and finally the Central. That pattern is well very interesting.

Food for thought I guess. Well now when you have this discussion you can bring up these numbers.

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Add Wally To The List of Crazy Managers

In a video that has been making its way around the video, Wally Backman as a manager had an absolute meltdown some time ago when one of his players was thrown out of the game.

Oh, he was wearing a microphone.

I first saw the video over at The Daily Stache, and ladies and gentleman, its an absolute perfect example of a manager meltdown. I would embed directly below but, similar to stache, I'm just going to link to it here. The video is not censored, so you hear Wally in all of his cursoring goodness.

My favorite quote from the video:

“Lets Go Have a Beer Doc”

Also, I'm a fan of the other umpire just saying over and over “Wally” and when Backman told the catcher to get out of the way. Classic. Classic. Classic.

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Game Preview: Mets @ Yankees

In a thrilling game last night, the Mets beat the Yankees by the score of 4-0 thanks to great pitching and some timely hitting. The Mets will try do the same again today as the Mets and Yankees have a rematch of a great game from May. In the second game of the Citi Field edition of the subway series, Mike Pelfrey and the Mets were able to hand Phil Hughes his first loss of the season. Since then Hughes has not lost and the two pitchers come into today's game with identical records of 9-1.

Pelfrey has been amazing for the amazin's this year as he brings his 9-1 record and 2.39 ERA into the Bronx. In the month of June Pelfrey is 2-0 while pitching over 23.0 innings and posting a 1.96 ERA. In May he picked up the win against the Yankees as he pitched 6 innings and allowed only one earned run. The Yankees have these numbers against Big Pelf:

Tex 4-15, 2B
Cano 2-9, 2B
Arod 3-7
Jeter 1-6, 2B
Cervelli 1-6

The Mets batters will get to take a crack at Phil Hughes. The last time they faced Hughes, he was an unbeaten man. After the Mets last meeting with Hughes, he was a beaten man. Since then, back to being unbeaten. Overall on the season Hughes is 9-1 with a 3.11 ERA. In his last three starts he is 3-0 while pitching 18.2 innings with a 4.34 ERA. In his start against the Mets in May he picked up the loss in 5.2 innings of work as he allowed 4 ER and 8 hits to the Amazin's. The Mets have these numbers against Hughes:

Bay 4-9, 2B
Barajas 0-5
Francoeur 0-4
Pagan 2-3, 2B
Wright 2-3

Lets Go Mets!

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Back Pages: Mets Take Game 1 Over Yanks


(NY Post)


(NY Daily News)

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Mets Breakfast

Some quick hits to go with your Saturday morning Otees*:

1) The Mets took game one of the subway series last night. They now have their second 8th game winning streak of the season.

2) Takahashi. He fits in with the rest of the team in the sense that he is streaky. Two good starts followed by two poor starts followed by two good starts. Crazy.

3) Frustratingly, the Mets are still .5 games out of first place as the Braves are now on a three game winning streak. However, the Mets did take control of the Wild Card.

4) Who's excited for todays game?!

*Breakfast Cereal in Africa. Wooooo World Cup. Boooooooo Refs.

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