Game Preview: Mets @ Rays

The Mets look to avoid a sweep and climb back up to .500 this afternoon as they take on the Rays one last time. Saturday was a day of highs and lows for the Mets. Christian Scott made his major league debut and looked terrific through 6 2/3 innings, allowing only one run. The Mets bats though disappeared again and the bullpen ended up walking in two runs in the bottom of the eighth. You know what erases a frustrating loss? A win!

Luis Severino looks to right the ship for the Mets and continue his strong 2024 campaign this afternoon. Over six starts (35 innings) this season Severino has a 2.31 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 1.057 WHIP and a 170 ERA+. He’s coming off of his strongest start of the season where he allowed one run on one hit and two walks over eight innings. Part of his success this year has come from not allowing opponents to barrel up on the ball. He’s in the 89th percentile for barrel% and 79th for average exit velocity. Further he’s in the 85th percentile for groundball%. The only players on the Rays roster who have faced Severino in a major league game are Yandy Diaz (0-for-3, 2 K) and Amed Rosario (2-for-11, HR, 3 K).

The Mets bats will try to find themselves this afternoon against Ryan Pepiot. Over six starts (34 2/3 innings) Pepiot has a 3.12 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 0.865 WHIP and a 120 ERA+. Pepiot came over from the Dodgers as part of the Tyler Glasnow trade and is close to a season high in major league innings pitched (36 1/3 in 2022, 42 in 2023). In two of his first three starts this season he allowed 10 runs over 10 2/3 innings. Since then he has allowed only two runs over 18 innings. The only Met who has seen him in a major league game before is Joey Wendle (0-for-6, BB, K).

Three Things To Watch For:

  1. Can Starling Marte build on Saturday’s game? Marte was the Mets best hitter on Saturday going 2-for-3 at the plate with a walk (he also stole a base!). When Marte’s been hot this season the Mets have been too. Before this game, Marte was 2-for-22 and no walks over his last five games.
  2. Pete Alonso’s slump. In his last seven games, Alonso has gone 1-for-23 at the plate with five walks. The Mets desperately need their big power hitter to bounce back and back up the awesome pitching performances.
  3. Can the Mets keep Rays hitters unbalanced? In Saturday’s game chat we talked about how the Braves were one of the least patient teams at the plate, near the bottom of the league in walks and near the top in strikeouts. Well they got patient yesterday at the right moment and were able to work two walks with the bases loaded to win the game. They still struck out nine times though.

Let’s Go Mets!

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Game Preview: Mets @ Rays

Happy Christian Scott day!

The Mets are calling up their top pitching prospect this evening! Christian Scott has been tearing up the minor leagues and joins the Mets rotation earlier this season than a lot of people, myself included, expected.

He joins the rotation the day after a rough loss for the Mets. Quintana just did not have it Friday night and the Mets went down 9-3 after taking a quick 3-0 lead in the second inning. The Mets offense showed fight the entire night and actually got the score to 10-8 before ultimately losing. The Mets are hoping their offense sticks around another day as they look to get back in the win column this evening.

Christian Scott, the #62 prospect by Baseball America, takes the mound for the first time this afternoon. Over five starts and 25 1/3 innings he has a 3.20 ERA and 0.711 WHIP. He has struck out an absurd 36 batters through that stretch. It’s even more absurd considering that he only struck out two batters in his last outing. Over his five starts this season he tossed over 80 pitches four times with a season high of 95. He’s got a mid-90’s fastball, a sweeper, slider and and a split change.

The Mets bats will try to keep yesterday’s vibes going against Zack Littell tonight. Over six games and 33 innings he has a 3.27 ERA, 2.65 FIP, 1.364 WHIP and a 114 ERA+. Littell had a 2.14 ERA through his first four starts of the season and then got roughed up for six runs over six innings against the Tigers. He then rebounded in his last started against the White Sox, holding them to two runs over six innings. He faced the Mets twice in relief last season holding the Mets to one run off three hits over two innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against Littell:

  • Pete Alonso 0-3
  • Harrison Bader 1-6
  • Brett Baty 1-1
  • Francisco Lindor 0-6, K
  • Starling Marte 1-3, 2B, K
  • J.D. Martinez 0-1, K
  • Jeff McNeil 1-1
  • Omar Narváez 0-2, K
  • Tomás Nido 0-1
  • Brandon Nimmo 0-1, K
  • Tyrone Taylor 0-1

Three Things To Watch For:

  1. Christian Scott Strikeouts. The Rays are 26th in league for walks at 89. They have the seventh highest amount of strikeouts at 297. In other words, the Rays are not patient and they swing freely. Scott has made a lot of noise in the minor leagues with his strikeout numbers. On paper this looks like a juicy combination.
  2. Brett Baty Breakout? It’s been no secret Baty has been struggling recently. Last night he went 3-for-4 at the plate with two home runs, including the opening three-run homer to start the game. Let’s hope this is the start of a new hot streak for Baty!
  3. Amed Rosario, again. Before Friday’s game we talked about how the Mets would see Amed Rosario again and how good of a season he was having. Oops. He had a terrific game against the Mets going 3-for-5 at the plate scoring two runs and driving in two.

Let’s Go Mets!

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Game Preview: Mets @ Rays

The Mets head to St. Petersburg tonight coming off a fantastic end to their series against the Cubs. On Wednesday night the Mets had a crushing, 1-0 loss that ended with a possible obstruction of home plate when Pete Alonso tried to tie the game in the bottom of the ninth. The vibes were not good!

Thursday was the Francisco Lindor flu game though to bring the vibes back. Lindor came off the bench, possibly still not feeling great from his 24-hour bug, smacked a two-run double in the middle of the game. He then stayed in the game and later had the winning hit in the bottom of the 11th. Now the Mets bring that energy for a weekend series with the Rays.

Jose Quintana has made six starts tossing 33 2/3 innings this season with a 3.48 ERA, 4.27 FIP, 1.337 WHIP and a 113 ERA+. Quintana is coming off of a tremendous start where he held the Cardinals to one run over eight innings which snapped a Mets losing streak. Quintana’s Baseball Savant page doesn’t look the greatest, but does show a bit about how he’s getting it done right now. His fastball run value is in the 88th percentile and he’s getting groundballs 66% of the time. The Rays have the following career numbers against Quintana:

  • Randy Arozarena 1-2, 2B, BB, K
  • Yandy Diaz 1-2
  • Niko Goodrum 2-4, 2B, 2 K
  • Isaac Paredes 1-1
  • Amed Rosario 3-7, 2B, K

Aaron Civale has 5.06 ERA, 4.29 FIP, 1.313 WHIP and 74 ERA+ over six starts (32 innings) this season. Over his first two starts of the season he allowed only two runs from eight hits over 12 innings. In his last three starts he has allowed 14 runs from 21 hits and five walks over 15 innings of work. Homers have been a weakness for him this season. Civale has allowed six so far spread out over five of his six starts. The Mets have the following limited career numbers against Civale:

  • Pete Alonso 0-2
  • J.D. Martinez 1-3
  • Omar Narváez 1-2, BB, K
  • DJ Stewart 0-5, BB

Three Things To Watch For:

  1. Can the Mets hit the ball out of the Trop? The New York Mets are tied for 13th in the league for homers, sitting at 32 for the season. The power for the Mets have dried up recently only hitting only two in their series with the Cubs. Civale has given up a lot of homeruns this season. Seems like a good time for the Mets to get that aspect of their game back.
  2. Amed Rosario. The Mets will face an old friend tonight in a new place. Rosario was part of the trade that brought Francisco Lindor to New York. After a couple of seasons in Cleveland he was traded in 2023 to the Dodgers for another form Met – Noah Syndergaard. Amed Rosario signed with the Rays in the off-season and is having a solid 2024 with his new club. Over 28 games he is hitting .295/.315/.419 (113 OPS+) which is a slight bump from his career .273/.308/.401. He is also in the 80th percentile for whiff% and 87t for K%. Always love to see a former Met prospect succeed.
  3. Brandon Nimmo the on base machine. Over his last eight games Nimmo has gone 8-for-28 at the plate with two doubles, a homer and five walks (.394 OBP). While the Mets have turned his on base skills into only four runs (which speaks to the overall offensive struggles), Nimmo is at least setting the table for something to happen. On Thursday he completed the first comeback bringing home Lindor in a key, runner-in-scoring-position situation.

Let’s Go Mets!

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Game Preview: Cubs vs Mets

The Mets look to split the series this afternoon after a disappointing, controversial loss Wednesday night. On Wednesday the Mets and Cubs were locked in a pitcher’s duel. In the bottom of the ninth the Mets were down 1-0 with runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out. Pete Alonso tried to score at the end of the game and was called out on a play where it appears that the Cubs the catcher was standing on the plate before the ball got to him – which would violate the blocking rule. Overall it was frustrating. Carlos Mendoza was frustrated for his players at the end of the game. Pete Alonso was diplomatic about it. Now the Mets need to do the difficult thing of channeling those emotions into positive outcomes for this afternoon’s game.

Adrian Houser is looking to get his season back on the right track this afternoon at Citi Field. Over five starts he has allowed 22 runs from 29 hits and 16 walks over 23 2/3 innings (8.37 ERA, 4.78 FIP, 1.901 WHIP, 47 ERA+). Houser has had two solid starts for the Mets this season. In his first start he allowed one run over five innings. In his third start he allowed two runs over 5 1/3. Both of his starts against the Cubs last season were great. He held the Cubs to one run over 10 innings. The Cubs have the following career numbers against Houser:

  • Miguel Amaya 0-2
  • Alexander Canario 0-2, 2 K
  • Pete Crow-Armstrong 0-2, BB, K
  • Yan Gomes 0-2, BB, K
  • Ian Happ 4-11, 2 2B, 5 BB
  • Nico Hoerner 0-5, 3 K
  • Christopher Morel 2-5
  • Dansby Swanson 3-13, BB, 3 K
  • Mike Tauchman 0-2, 2 BB, K
  • Patrick Wisdom 3-6, K

The Mets bats will look to string together a few hits and score a couple of runs this afternoon against rookie Ben Brown. Brown has pitched in seven games this season including three starts totaling 23 innings with a 4.30 ERA, 3.14 FIP, 1.174 WHIP and a 100 ERA+. Brown made back to back starts between April 9th and 15th, allowing one run over 10 2/3 innings while striking out nine batters. His last start though was forgettable, he allowed three runs from seven hits over 3 2/3 innings. No one on the Mets roster has seen Ben Brown in a major league game.

Three Things To Watch For:

  1. Emotions from Wednesday. The way the Mets lost the game on Wednesday is deflating. The Mets didn’t blow the game and it can feel like the game was taken from them. This becomes and important test for Carlos Mendoza to publicly back up his players (which he did after the game on Wednesday) and to keep the game in perspective. Ultimately, it’s one game out of 162.
  2. Surprise unavailability. Lindor left Wednesday’s game early due to flu-like symptoms. Hopefully he feels better soon and comes back when he’s 100%. We know that Lindor plays through just about everything so this is definitely ailing him. (There is also a larger conversation about working while sick we could get into, and how we could all do a better job of prioritizing our health.) Anyway, the bug is going around the clubhouse, hopefully no one else catches it.
  3. Who, if anyone, rebounds after a bad start? Adrian Houser allowed six runs in his last start and 14 runs over his last two starts. Ben Brown allowed three runs from seven hits over 3 2/3 innings. Then the game just got away from the Cubs and they ended up losing to the Red Sox 17-0. Who returns towards their average performance this afternoon?

Let’s Go Mets!

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Game Preview: Cubs vs Mets

The Mets got back in the win column Tuesday night behind DJ Stewart who delivered the Mets the big hit they’ve been missing. For much of the night the game felt the same as Sunday and Monday. The Mets were getting effective starting pitching, keeping runs off the board. The Mets were struggling to push any of their own runners across the plate. In the bottom of the sixth Stewart hit his fourth homer of the year and carried the Mets to victory.

Today’s game, on paper, is the toughest pitching matchup of the series for the Mets bats as they face off against Shōta Imanaga. Can the Mets channel last night’s magic for a second straight game?

Jose Buttó looks to keep the Mets starting pitching streak going tonight! Mets starters have been excellent in three consecutive games, with two pitchers going eight innings and Manaea last night allowing only one run over five. This season Buttó has made four starts totaling 22 innings with a 2.86 ERA, 4.12 FIP, 1.091 WHIP and a 140 ERA+. He’s coming off of his worst start of the season where he allowed four runs over 5 2/3 innings from four hits and three walks. Walks has been weak point this season, currently allowing 12 free passes this season. Buttó has not faced anyone on the Cubs roster in a major league game before.

Shōta Imanaga is having a phenomenal start to his major league career. Over his first five starts he has pitched 27 2/3 innings with a 0.98 ERA, 2.40 FIP, 0.795 WHIP and a 443 ERA+. In five of his six starts he has allowed one run or less (in his first three starts he allowed zero earned runs). He’s getting results with his fastball which has a .166 wOBA so far this season and has put him in the 100th percentile for fastball run value. His off-speed stuff is more susceptible (.336 wOBA for his sweeper, but he only throws it 8% of the time). No one on the Mets roster has seen him in a major league game.

Three Things To Watch For:

  1. The Mets need rallies. On Sunday’s game the Mets had eight hits and recorded six walks, which all converted into only four runs. Harrison Bader and Mark Vientos (who has since been optioned to the minors) were the only two Mets with two hits. Lindor and Alonso together accounted for five of the walks. Monday the Mets had only four hits and three walks, which turned into only run. Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil were the only two hitters that were on base twice. On Tuesday the Mets had seven hits and only one walk. Only Jeff McNeil was on base twice. The Mets bats are slumping and they are struggling to get rallies going right now.
  2. Mets need to find playing time for DJ Stewart and Tyrone Taylor. DJ Stewart was difference maker Tuesday night, hitting a three run homerun that increased his RBI total to 14 on the year. Only Pete Alonso (15) and Brandon Nimmo (18) have had more this season. Tyrone Taylor is right behind DJ Stewart with 13. The Mets depth has been a real strength so far in 2024.
  3. Extended Rest? No Problem. Ottavino pitched in his 10th game on Tuesday night, but it was his first game since April 24th. Ottavino didn’t look rusty at all though, only needing nine pitches to get out of the inning, recording his fourth hold of the year.

Let’s Go Mets!

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Game Preview: Cubs vs Mets

Tonight’s game for the Mets could become an inflection point for the team this season. On Monday night Luis Severino had a stellar outing for the Mets, bringing a no-hitter into the 8th inning. Joey Wendle made a defensive mistake that led to the tying Cubs run. In the top of the ninth Edwin Díaz allowed the go-ahead homer. The Mets bats left six runners on base, barely got anyone in scoring position and when they did, they went 0-for-2 at the plate.

If the Mets can feed off of the energy of Monday night’s missed opportunity, that makes tonight an inflection game. A win tonight makes a series split or even a series win all the more probable. A loss makes points the Mets in a direction of a third consecutive series loss.

Sean Manaea looks to build on Quintana and Severino’s last two starts. The Mets just got back-to-back games with their starter going eight innings. Manaea is coming off of a frustrating outing where he held the Giants scoreless over 4 2/3 innings, but managed to walk eight batters in addition to allowing eight hits thus tossing 101 pitches, a season high, before finishing the fifth inning. Overall in 2024, Manaea has made five starts totaling 24 1/3 innings with a 3.33 ERA, 3.45 FIP, 1.438 WHIP and a 120 ERA+.

Manaea pitched against the Cubs twice in 2023. In his first start against them he allowed no runs, no hits and no walks over 4 1/3 innings while striking out five batters. In his second outing he allowed two runs from four hits over three innings in relief. The Cubs have the following career numbers against him:

  • Miguel Amaya 0-3, 2 K
  • Michael Busch 0-2, 2 K
  • Yan Gomes 0-4, 2 K
  • Ian Hap 1-4, K
  • Nico Hoerner 1-4, 3B
  • Nick Madrigal 0-3
  • Matt Mervis 0-2, K
  • Christopher Morel 1-3, BB, K
  • Dansby Swanson 0-10, 3 K
  • Mike Tauchman 1-4, 2B, K
  • Patrick Wisdom 2-3, K

The Mets bats will get a look at Javier Assad tonight who is off to a phenomenal start in 2024. Over five starts and 27 innings Assad has a 2.00 ERA, 3.31 FIP, 1.000 WHIP and a 214 ERA+. In 2023 Assad was used both as a reliever and a starter (with exactly 1/3 of an inning of relief against the Mets). During his longest stretch of a starter from the start of August to mid-September, Assad had a 2.84 ERA, 4.52 FIP over 50 2/3 innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

  • Pete Alonso 0-3
  • Harrison Bader 0-1
  • Brett Baty 0-1, K
  • Francisco Lindor 1-2, BB
  • J.D. Martinez 0-2, K
  • Jeff McNeil 0-2, BB
  • Brandon Nimmo 0-3, 2 K
  • Tyrone Taylor 0-1

Three Things To Watch For:

  1. Evenly matched for power. The Mets as a team have hit 31 homers this season, good for a four-way tie for 11th in the league. The Cubs have hit 30 homers this season, tied with the Mariners for 15th in the league.
  2. Will the Cubs steal a base? It’s no secret that the Mets have been susceptible to stolen bases this season. The Cubs have stolen a league worst eight bags this year, two behind the Rockies. (For context, the Reds and Nationals have stolen the most at 52, with the Brewers behind them at 35). Will the Cubs feel empowered to run against the Mets?
  3. Dollar Dog Night at Citi Field. Hope you are going to the ballpark hungry tonight if you’re attending the game in person as the Mets are hosting dollar dog night. They even got America’s favorite veteran, Seymore Weiner, in on the advertisement. In other cities, dollar dog night has led to mild chaos with hot dogs being tossed from one section to another. Eat responsibly tonight!
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Game Preview: Cubs vs Mets

The Mets started off the season 0-5 and then flipped the script after a walk-off win against the Tigers, ushering in about two weeks of winning. Going into Sunday’s game the Mets lost four of their last five games and were trying to avoid getting swept for a second series in a row.

The loss felt inevitable after the 10th inning when the Mets failed to move a runner in scoring position across the plate for what felt like the 30th time. Then the Cardinals scored to open up the 11th. But Mark Vientos said not today and smacked a walk-off homerun in the bottom of the 11th. The vibes instantly improved.

The Mets will need the vibes as they welcome the 17-11 Cubs to Citi Field tonight. Can the Mets stop their roll?

Luis Severino has pitched 27 innings this season over five starts with a 2.67 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 1.259 WHIP and a 150 ERA+. He allowed three runs over six innings against the Giants his last time out, his second quality start in row for the Mets. More importantly, in his last start he didn’t walk a single batter. The Cubs have the following career numbers against Severino:

  • Yan Gomes 1-8, 2 K
  • Ian Happ 1-3, K
  • Nico Hoerner 0-3, K
  • Nick Madrigal 1-2
  • Christopher Morel 1-3, K
  • Patrick Wisdom 0-2, BB, 2 K

The Mets bats will catch Jameson Taillon making his third start of the season tonight. Over his first two starts he has allowed three runs, two earned, over 10 2/3 innings while striking out eight. Last season over 154 2/3 innings he had a 4.84 ERA, 4.61 FIP, 1.276 WHIP and a 93 ERA+. His one start against the Mets was a good one where he held the Mets to two runs and three hits over seven innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

  • Pete Alonso 1-3, HR
  • Harrison Bader 2-12, BB, 2 K
  • Francisco Lindor 2-7, 2 K
  • J.D. Martinez 4-18, 2B, HR, BB, 6 K
  • Jeff McNeil 1-3, K
  • Omar Narváez 1-3, 2B, 2 BB
  • Brandon Nimmo 0-3
  • DJ Stewart 0-2, BB, K
  • Tyrone Taylor 1-5, 2B, 2 K
  • Mark Vientos 0-2, K
  • Joey Wendle 0-3, 2 K

Three Things To Watch For:

  1. Is Harrison Bader back? From April 9th to the 14th Bader had an absurd 14 hits in 33 trips to the plate batting .452/.485/.613. In the five games between then and Sunday’s game Bader went 1-for-18 at the plate hitting .056/.056/.056. Yesterday Bader went 2-for-5 and scored a run, is the pendulum swinging back to racking up hits mode?
  2. Mark Vientos is seizing his opportunity. Since his call-up Mark Vientos has gone 3-for-4 at the plate with a walk-off home run. Not sure how the Mets will find playing time for all of J.D. Martinez, DJ Stewart, Brett Baty and Mark Vientos once Starling Marte returns (assuming that Vientos stays up with the team).
  3. Mets need another quality start. In Sunday’s game preview we talked about how the Mets were tied with several other teams for fewest total quality starts of the season at five. The Mets got a magnificent start from Quintana yesterday, but then still needed their bullpen to pitch three innings due to the game going into extras. Adam Ottavino hasn’t pitched since Wednesday and he’s the only Met pitcher who has thrown in the last three days. Another quality start from Severino will go a long way for a bullpen that has recently been battered by injuries (Brooks Raley, Drew Smith).

Let’s Go Mets!

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Game Preview: Cardinals vs Mets

For a second straight series the Mets find themselves trying avoid the sweep. On Friday night the Mets dropped the game 4-2, falling early and couldn’t claw back. On Saturday afternoon the Mets fell early again, had one massive inning to bring them within two, and but couldn’t complete the comeback.

The Mets now find themselves back at .500, can they get back on the right track today?

Jose Quintana has pitched 25 2/3 innings over five starts this season with a 4.21 ERA, 4.76 FIP, 1.597 WHIP and a 94 ERA+. His numbers are inflated by his last start in San Francisco where he allowed five runs from seven hits and three walks over five innings. Another interesting quirk this season for Quintana – he has struck out exactly four batters in each of his five starts this season. Quintana’s former team has the following career numbers against him:

  • Nolan Arenado 2-18, 2 HR, BB, 5 K
  • Willson Contreras 0-11, 3 BB, 4 K
  • Brandon Crawford 3-12, HR, K
  • José Fermín 0-2
  • Paul Goldschmidt 12-20, 3 2B, 3 HR, BB, 2 K

The Mets bats will get a look at the ageless Lance Lynn who is about two weeks away from his 37th birthday. Over five starts (25 2/3 innings) this season he has a 2.81 ERA, 4.45 FIP, 1.364 WHIP and a 149 ERA+. This is a pretty far departure from his 183 2/3 innings last season where he had a 5.73 ERA, 5.53 FIP, 1.394 WHIP and a 77 ERA+. The Mets have the following career numbers against Lynn:

  • Harrison Bader 0-1, K
  • Francisco Lindor 3-8, HR, BB
  • J.D. Martinez 3-25, 3 BB, 9 K
  • Omar Narváez 3-16, 2 BB, 3 K
  • DJ Stewart 1-4, BB, K
  • Tyrone Taylor 3-4, 3B
  • Joey Wendle 6-14, HR

Three Things To Watch For:

  1. Brandon Nimmo is getting on base in bunches. Nimmo went 2-for-4 at the plate Saturday, marking his second consecutive game with two hits. It’s also his third consecutive game where he got on base twice (4-for-11, 2B, 3 BB, .500 OBP). He has now reached base safely at least once in nine straight games (.439 OBP).
  2. Mets depth players getting the job done. In Saturday’s game DJ Stewart went 1-for-2 at the plate, working two walks raising his OPS to .827 on the season. Tyrone Taylor went 1-for-4 at the plate and scored a run. He’s hitting .321/.351/.491 so far. Teams win because of the players behind their regular starters and it feels like a while since the Mets have had solid, consistent play from role players.
  3. The Mets need a quality start. The Mets are in a six-way tie for the least amount of quality starts by a starting pitching this year (5). The league average is nine quality starts per team. For comparison, the Phillies are leading the league with 18 so far.

Let’s Go Mets!

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Game Preview: Cardinals vs Mets

If you know New York, you know that the Mets are wearing their City Connect uniform set tonight for the first time.

The Mets become the latest team to join Nike’s City Connect line of uniforms, redesigned to bring out the energy of the city through creatively designed jerseys, pants, hats etc. You can read more about the Mets concrete gray uniforms that feature references to the Subway and the Queensboro bridge here.

The Mets baseball team will try to bounce back from Friday night’s loss. For most of the game it felt like the type of game the Mets would eventually claw out of, and the bullpen helped keep the Mets in the game. Alas, the comeback fell short and the Mets dropped the opener of the series to a struggling Cardinals squad. J.D. Martinez on the other hand did not disappoint and went 2-for-4 at the plate in his Mets debut with a double and a RBI.

The Mets are looking for a bounce back performance from Adrian Houser this afternoon. Over four starts, 19 1/3 innings, Houser has a 7.45 ERA, 5.04 FIP, 1.759 WHIP and a 53 ERA+. He is coming off of a dreadful start last weekend against the Dodgers who tagged him for eight runs off seven hits and four walks over four innings. The percentile rankings for Houser are also starting to ring alarm bells.

Houser faced the Cardinals twice at the end of 2023 and was successful (even if the defense behind him wasn’t). He allowed five runs, only three earned from seven hits over 11 innings while striking out nine batters. The Cardinals have the following career numbers against Houser:

  • Nolan Arenado 2-14, 3 BB
  • Willson Contreras 2-16, 3 BB, 5 K
  • Brandon Crawford 1-1, 2B
  • Brendan Donovan 2-3, 2B, BB
  • José Fermín 1-4, K
  • Paul Goldschmidt 9-34, 3 HR, 2 BB, 5 K
  • Nolan Gorman 3-3, 2B, HR
  • Lars Nootbaar 3-11, 2B, BB, 3 K
  • Masyn Winn 0-3

The Mets bats will face off today against a rolling Sonny Gray. Over three starts (17 1/3 innings), Gray has a 1.04 ERA, 0.64 FIP, 0.865 WHIP and a 400 ERA+. He is coming off of a season where he lead the league in FIP (2.83) and HR/9 (0.4). Gray’s last start was the first time he allowed runs this season (2) and still managed to strike out 12 batters over 6 1/3 innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against Gray:

  • Pete Alonso 0-2, BB
  • Harrison Bader 2-10, HR, 2 K
  • Francisco Lindor 5-21, 2 HR, 4 BB, 5 K
  • Starling Marte 3-12, HR, 2 BB
  • J.D. Martinez 4-10, 2B, HR, 2 BB, 3 K
  • Jeff McNeil 2-3, 2B
  • Omar Narváez 3-15, 2 2B, K
  • Tomás Nido 1-2
  • Brandon Nimmo 1-5, 3 K
  • Tyrone Taylor 2-5, HR, K
  • Joey Wendle 1-6, K

Three Things To Watch For:

  1. Brandon Nimmo’s very Nimmo-esque stat line. If you have been watching Nimmo over his career, you know he goes through these streaks where he doesn’t pick up hits, but just works a ton of walks. Going into Friday night’s game, Nimmo was living that to the extreme. He was 1-for-17 over his last six games but had eight walks (and six runs scored). On Friday night Nimmo went 2-for-4 at the plate meaning that in his last eight games he is hitting .195/.417/.231. A dip in power but he’s getting on base at a healthy clip.
  2. The Mets bullpen continues to keep them in games. Friday night the Mets allowed one hit, one walk and nothing else over 3 1/3 innings. They struck out six batters they faced. Everyone is chipping in. Jorge López pitched multiple innings last night. Reed Garrett is having a phenomenal season whether he is used in long relief or as a closer. Garrett last had a long outing on Wednesday and could be needed tonight in case Houser’s outing is short.
  3. Brett Baty is struggling at the plate. Since returning to the lineup after injury, Baty has gone 2-for-19 at the plate over six games (.105/.191/.105). He started to show some signs of getting out of his slump the last two games in San Francisco collecting two hits and a walk in nine trips to the plate, but last night night he went 0-for-3 with two strikeouts.

Let’s Go Mets!

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Game Preview: Cardinals vs Mets

The Mets return home after a week away on the West Coast. They ended up splitting the road trip and open up a homestand tonight with a winning record as they welcome the Cardinals, a team they played approximately 34 times in spring training, to Citi Field.

The big news of the night is the arrival of J.D. Martinez. Martinez signed with the Mets at the end of spring training and needed time to ramp up (and work through a back injury). Last season Martinez hit .271/.321/.572 with a 134 OPS+ over 113 games. He’s been an All-Star five of the last six seasons. Combined with Marte’s resurgence, Martinez makes the first five hitters of the Mets lineup formidable.

Jose Buttó makes his fourth start of the season tonight. Over his first three games he’s pitched 16 1/3 innings with a 1.65 ERA, 2.59 FIP, 1.041 WHIP and a 241 ERA+. Buttó is coming off of his worst start of the season in Los Angeles where he allowed three runs from three hits and a whopping five walks over 4 1/3 innings. It was a departure from his previous start where he held the Royals to two hits and a walk and nothing else over six innings. Despite the walk troubles, Buttó kept his strikeout numbers up with six his last time out, bringing his season total to 21. No one on the Cardinals roster has faced Buttó in a major league game.

The Mets bats will look to keep the vibes from Wednesday going as they take on Miles Mikolas. Mikolas has made five starts pitching 26 1/3 innings with a 6.49 ERA, 5.00 FIP, 1.519 WHIP and a 64 ERA+. It is the third time in the last four seasons where his ERA+ has been below 100. He’s coming off a workhorse type season where he made a league leading 35 starts totaling 201 1/3 innings where he allowed a league leading 226 hits and 107 earned runs.

Looking more recently, Mikolas has allowed ten runs in his last two starts, five each in both starts, from 13 hits and three home runs. In his two starts against the Mets last year he allowed 13 runs over 10 2/3 innings from 15 hits. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

  • Pete Alonso 2-12, BB, 2 K
  • Brett Baty 1-3, 2B
  • Francisco Lindor 4-11, 2B, K
  • Starling Marte 7-38, 2B, 2 BB, 6 K
  • Jeff McNeil 8-14, 3 2B, BB, K
  • Omar Narváez 4-17, 2 2B, 3B, BB, 3 K
  • Tomás Nido 0-3, 3 K
  • Brandon Nimmo 0-13, 3 BB, 3 K
  • DJ Stewart 1-2, HR, K
  • Tyrone Taylor 3-10, 2B, HR, 3 BB
  • Joey Wendle 1-7, K
  • J.D. Martinez 1-3, HR

Three Things To Watch For:

  1. The new Mets lineup! The Mets bats are the main story tonight. A top of the lineup of Nimmo-Marte-Lindor-Alonso-Martinez is as good as the Mets have been in a while. There are other questions the Mets will need to figure out, like how to do they cycle in Tyrone Taylor enough in the lineup to get a meaningful amount of at bats. This is a good problem to have!
  2. Lindor is coming in hot! Lindor returns home after a 4-for-5 afternoon on Wednesday where he smacked two homeruns with 4 RBI’s. Over his last six games Lindor has gone 9-for-24 at the plate with a double and three home runs.
  3. Length from a starting pitcher. The Mets starting rotation has been struggling going into deep into games so far this season. On Wednesday Manaea kept the Giants off the scoreboard over 4 2/3 innings, but had to leave the game before he even qualified for a win due to his pitch count. The last time that Buttó pitched he walked five batters. He also has pitched six innings twice this season.

Let’s Go Mets!

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