213 Miles From Shea

The Mets escaped a series sweep from the Giants and now welcome the Dodgers to town!

The Mets finally got a win on Sunday, snapping their five game losing streak in a fairly unconventional fashion. Sean Manaea was solid for the Mets over five innings and then Houser came in with four of his best innings of relief this year, allowing only one run to score, which changed the score from 2-1 to 3-1 Giants. The Mets then rallied in the bottom of the ninth, finally getting some hits with runners in scoring position, to win the game 4-3. Could this be an inflection point of the season for the Mets?

Tylor Megill makes his second start since returning from the injured list for the Mets. Over two starts this season he has allowed five runs, three earned, over nine innings while striking out 11 batters. He looked solid in his last start, allowing three runs, two earned over five innings racking up seven strikeouts and tossing 86 pitches overall. In his one start against the Dodgers in 2023, he allowed three runs from seven hits and four walks while striking out four batters over five innings. The Dodgers have the following career numbers against him:

• Austin Barnes 0-2
• Freddie Freeman 5-11, 3 K
• Teoscar Hernández 1-5, K
• Jason Heyward 1-3
• Shohei Ohtani 0-2
• Miguel Rojas 1-4, BB, K
• Will Smith 0-2, K
• Chris Taylor 1-2, K
• Miguel Vargas 0-2, BB, K

The Mets bats will get a look at Gavin Stone who has made nine starts this season pitching 50 innings. He has a 3.60 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 1.300 WHIP and a 112 ERA+. Gavin Stone is coming off of his first rough start since April 20th (when he faced the Mets. After facing the Mets, Stone pitched four games allowing four earned runs (exactly one run per game) over 26 innings (1.38 ERA, 4.32 FIP). In his last start he allowed four runs over six innings from eight hits and a walk.

Against the Mets this season he allowed two runs from four hits and five walks over 3 1/3 innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Pete Alonso 0-2
• Harrison Bader 0-2
• Francisco Lindor 1-2, 2B
• Starling Marte 0-2, K
• Jeff McNeil 1-1, 2B, BB
• Omar Narváez 0-2
• Brandon Nimmo 0-0, 2 BB
• DJ Stewart 0-0, 2 BB

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Can the Mets keep Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts off the basepaths? Ohtani and Betts are third and sixth respectively in OPS this season. Ohtani is currently hitting .336/.403/.621 with a 1.024 OPS and a 188 OPS+. He’s leading the league in all of those stats just listed except for OBP. He’s in the 99th or 100th percentile for six different hitting stats on Baseball Savant. Betts is hitting .335/.431/.542 with a .974 OPS and a 177 OPS+. The Mets have to keep both hitters in check tonight and throughout the series.
2. The bullpen is rested. From Wednesday through Saturday the Mets bullpen player a role in three straight losses for the Mets. Adrian Houser saved the entire bullpen yesterday pitching four innings allowing only one run (which makes up for his performance on Tuesday where he allowed six runs as a starter). Look to see if the bullpen can move past their recent performances this afternoon and keep the lead if the Mets have one.
3. Working walks. The Mets were patient against Gavin Stone the last time they faced him, working five walks over 3 1/3 innings and getting him out of the game quickly. They should try the same gameplan this afternoon, get to the Dodgers bullpen and make them work harder than they have to. The Mets only had two walks as a team in Sunday’s game and we know the Mets as a team are better when they make pitchers work harder and longer in at-bats.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets are free falling right now. They have now lost five games in a row and are a season worst nine games below .500. The games they have lost in the past week are all games they could have easily won, with the last three losses involving blown leads late in games. This has to be causing increased pressure on the bullpen, which in turn is making results worst right now.

It’s a mess, and the only cure for it is to win ball games. Hopefully Sean Manaea facing his old club this afternoon can put the Mets back in the right direction.

Over nine starts (46 1/3 innings) this season, Manaea has a 3.11 ERA, 3.41 FIP, 1.295 WHIP and a 123 ERA+. Since his terrible start against Kansas City on April 13th, Manaea has made six starts with a 2.56 ERA, 3.41 FIP while opponents are hitting .224/.305/.310 against him. He has gotten results on the field this year despite some of the under-the-hood stats suggesting otherwise (4.25 xERA, .254 xBA). The Giants have the following career numbers against him:

• Patrick Bailey 1-1, BB
• Curt Casali 0-6, BB, 2 K
• Matt Chapman 1-2
• Thairo Estrada 2-12, K
• Wilmer Flores 8-23, 2 2B, BB, 4 K
• Heliot Ramos 0-2, BB
• Jorge Soler 2-7, HR< BB, K
• Mike Yastrzemski 2-8, 3B, BB, 3 K

The Mets bats will face Logan Webb who has already made 11 starts this season. Over 65 1/3 innings, Webb has a 3.03 ERA, 2.82 FIP, 1.332 WHIP and a 128 ERA+. Over his last two starts he has allowed two runs over 12 innings while striking out 11. This is a massive improvement over the three starts before that where he allowed 12 runs, 10 earned over 14 2/3 innings. He last faced the Mets in April 2023 where he held the Mets to two runs from five hits and a walk over seven innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Pete Alonso 2-14, HR, BB, 5 K
• Harrison Bader 2-5, 2 BB
• Brett Baty 0-5, 2 K
• Francisco Lindor 2-11, 2B, 4 K
• Starling Marte 7-15, 2B, K
• J.D. Martinez 1-7, BB, 4 K
• Jeff McNeil 3-12, 2B, BB, K
• Omar Narváez 1-8, 2 K
• Tomás Nido 1-6
• Brandon Nimmo 1-14, HR, 2 BB, 3 K
• DJ Stewart 0-3
• Tyrone Taylor 0-4, BB, 2 K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Sean Manaea revenge game? The San Francisco Giants jerked Manaea around last year between the bullpen and the rotation. Players are sometimes more amped up when they face their last team. We’ll know fairly earlier on if Manaea is having a revenge game type outing from the radar gun. His sinker which he throws about 40% of the time sits around 92/93 and has maxed out this season at 96. His 4-seam fastball which he throws about 15% of the time sits around 92 as well and has gone as high as 97 this year. Look to see if his pitches are averaging slightly higher than normal.
2. A normal day for the bullpen. The bullpen has not been the only culprit over the last several games for the Mets. Once a strength, now a problem, the Mets have lost three games in a row that they had the lead late. Further, the last two games we’ve seen massive explosions, like Reed Garrett allowing five runs in the 8th inning Friday night or yesterday where the Mets allowed five in the 10th and didn’t even give the offense a chance. Let’s have a normal day today, please!
3. Mets have flashed a lot of power. The Mets have hit 12 homeruns as a team over their last five games. They’ve also lost all five of those games. It’s pretty crazy. The offense is coming together but they are still struggling to hit with runners in scoring position. Friday’s game ended with the bases loaded. Saturday the Mets had a runner on third with one out in the bottom of the ninth but couldn’t bring them in (and then the bullpen exploded).

Let’s Go Mets!

If you turned Friday night’s game off after the seventh inning, you were in for a rude awakening this morning. The Mets were looking good early last night. They got a solid start from Christian Scott, the offense scored six runs off of three homers, Edwin Díaz had a solid inning of relief.

Then the wheels came off. The Giants scored five runs in the 8th inning to the take lead. The Mets loaded the bases in the ninth, scored one, but couldn’t score the tying run thanks to a great defensive play by the Giants. The Mets could have easily won most if not all of the games they’ve played in the last week. They haven’t, and now they are a season worst eight games under .500. Can the Mets turn things around today?

Luis Severino has made nine starts totaling 51 2/3 innings this year with a 3.48 ERA, 3.94 FIP, 1.219 WHIP and a 110 ERA+. He’s coming off of a rough start in Miami where he allowed five runs from six hits and three walks over 6 2/3 innings. Only one of his starts in May has been good and overall he has a 5.94 ERA, 5.47 FIP this month over 16 2/3 innings. The Giants have the following career numbers against him:

• Patrick Bailey 0-3
• Matt Chpaman 2-16, 2 BB, 4 K
• Thairo Estrada 1-2
• Wilmer Flores 0-4, 3 K
• Ryan McKenna 0-2, K
• Jorge Soler 1-6, 3 K
• LaMonte Wade Jr. 0-2, K
• Mike Yastrzemski 1-2, K

The Mets bats will try to keep their home streak alive against Jordan Hicks. Hicks signed with the Giants in the off-season who transitioned him from flamethrowing reliever into a starter and what a move it has turned out to be. Over 10 starts, 53 innings, this season, Hicks has a 2.38 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 1.113 WHIP and a 162 ERA+. He’s coming off of a tart where he allowed only one earned run over five innings. That being said he’s been a bit more hit-able this month allowing 10 runs, eight earned, over four starts from 21 hits.

The Mets faced Hicks in relief in back-to-back games in 2023. Hicks held the Mets to one hit over two innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against Hicks:

• Pete Alonso 1-3
• Harrison Bader 0-1
• Francisco Lindor 0-3, BB, 3 K
• Starling Marte 2-10, K
• J.D. Martinez 0-1, K
• Jeff McNeil 2-4, 2B
• Omar Narváez 0-1, K
• Brandon Nimmo 2-6, 2 BB, 2 K
• Tyrone Taylor 0-1

Three Things To Watch For:

1. The Mets did it again! Friday night was the third straight game the Mets have hit three homers. They have lost all three games. Teams that hit three homers in a game have an over 70% chance of winning (according to the WCBS880 booth on Wednesday). What the Mets have done is improbable and also just speaks to the frustration overall surrounding the team right now. Here’s hoping the power surge continues for a fourth straight game but with a different final result for the Mets.
2. Will the Mets Click? Friday night the bullpen allowed six runs. Wednesday the bullpen allowed three runs. The Mets lost both of those games. Tuesday the bullpen allowed only one run, but Houser allowed six. The Mets lost by a run. Monday the bullpen and starting pitching together allowed only three runs, but the Mets scored only one run. The Mets need a game where all three (starting pitching, hitting, relieving) click at the same time.
3. Lindor is quietly starting to hit. Lost in the homer happy lineup has been Francisco Lindor’s last three games. He has gone 6-for-15 at the plate, collecting two hits in each game, including three doubles. The problem is he has scored only once, which speaks to the Mets hitting with RISP problems as a whole. He also has four multi-hit games in his last five played.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets day off came at the perfect time for them. The Mets have been free falling for the past few weeks, reaching a season worst seven games below .500 after Wednesday’s game. The Mets haven’t really been blown out recently either. These were all games that the Mets could have won or were winning at some point, and yet they fell short.

While the Mets have been falling, losing eight of their last ten, the Giants have been rising. They are one game below .500 but have won seven of their last ten. Can the Mets stop their roll this weekend?

Christian Scott will make his fourth start of the season tonight for the Mets. He was lights out in his first start, holding the Rays to one run from five hits while striking out six over 6 2/3 innings. He held a tough Atlanta lineup to only three runs while striking out eight batters in his second start, which also was a quality start. Last time out though was a struggle. The Marlins got him for four runs on seven hits over four innings.

The Mets bats will get a look at Kyle Harrison this evening. Over 10 games (55 innings), Harrison has a 3.60 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 1.273 WHIP and a 108 ERA+. His game log though is interesting. Harrison had a three game stretch from the end of April through the start of May where he allowed one run over 18 innings, lowering his ERA from 5.00 to 3.20. Since then he has allowed three runs over five innings in back-to-back games. He’s only had one rough start this year so generally he’s slightly worse than a quality start or he’s fantastic. The only member of the Mets to see him in a major league is J.D. Martinez who is 1-for4 with a homerun and two strikeouts.

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Improbable power hitters. The Mets are coming off back-to-back games hitting three home runs in each game. During the CBS880 broadcast on Wednesday, the booth discussed how historically if a team hits three homers, they win the game over 70% of the time. So to do that two games in a row and lose both games is improbable. Here’s hoping the power continues but not the game outcome for the Mets.
2. The most improbable power hitter. Jeff McNeil has homered in back-to-back games. His homerun on Tuesday was his first homer since April 5th. Overall he’s gone 3-for-8 with three runs scored and three total extra-base hits in the last two games. Since May 18th he’s hit .300/.333/.650 over five games. Is McNeil back?
3. Old Friends. I personally love watching the Giants come to Citi Field. First there is the overall influence of the Giants on the Mets roots. And then there are two players on the Giants roster. Michael Conforto will probably not play this weekend as he’s on the injured list and he just got cleared to take BP a couple of days ago. And then there is Wilmer Flores, the Mets legend. Flores is having a down year, hitting .215/.290/.289 with a 72 OPS+. It is the first time since 2015 that his OPS+ is below 100. If you are going this weekend, I hope you give Wilmer Flores a warm welcome back home.

Let’s Go Mets!

Tuesday night was a weird game for the Mets. They fell behind early then rallied to cut the Guardians lead to one. Guardians scored more, Mets rallied again to cut the lead to one. Guardians scored more, Mets rallied again to cut the lead to one. Then the game was over.

It felt like the Mets had fight but also didn’t have fight. A weird game in midst of a bad few weeks for the Mets. In early April, when the Mets went on a winning streak, they got their swagger back and looked like they were having fun. This team desperately needs a winning streak.

Jose Quintana has pitched 46 2/3 innings over nine starts this season with a 5.21 ERA, 4.67 FIP, 1.457 WHIP and a 74 ERA+. He’s coming off of his first solid start in May where he held the Phillies to only two runs over 5 1/3 innings. It was also his first start all season where he walked zero batters. Quintana’s statcast numbers so far leave a lot to be desired. He has an xERA of 5.76 (8th percentile) and an xBA of .308 (4th percentile). There are only two members of the Guardians who have seen Quintana in a major league game: Austin Hedges (4-for-8, BB, 2 K) and José Ramírez (9-for-29, 3 2B, BB, 3 K).

Triston McKenzie is having a bounce back season after an injury mired 2023 campaign. Over nine starts, 47 1/3 innings, McKenzie has a 3.23 ERA, 4.88 FIP, 1.310 WHIP and a 119 ERA+. He does lead the league in walks at 28 (5.3 BB/9). Since April 19th he has pitched 34 1/3 innings with a 2.10 ERA with 16 BB and 35 K’s. Only a few Mets have faced McKenzie before:

• Harrison Bader 1-2
• Starling Marte 0-3, K
• J.D. Martinez 0-3

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Power Burst? The Mets had a burst of power in Tuesday’s game with Vientos, McNeil and Marte all hitting homers. It ultimately wasn’t enough but it did contribute to Tuesday’s weird overall vibe. There were times where it felt like the Mets were just going through the motions, and then other times where they were smashing the ball. Let’s hope that’s momentum going into this afternoon’s game.
2. Does Lindor build on his solid day at the plate? Lindor went 2-for-5 Tuesday night with an RBI. The number one thing the Mets need right now is for Lindor to get hot. He is the heart and soul of the team. We’ve seen in the past when he gets hot, good things follow for other hitters in the lineup and the Mets overall.
3. Edwin Díaz. Díaz hasn’t pitched since Saturday, which means he has had three off-days in a row. With the Mets having an off-day tomorrow it feels like no matter what Díaz should get into today’s game. There was a moment Tuesday night where he started to go through the early warm-up process but as the game script changed, he sat back down. If he comes in today, here’s hoping he regains his confidence.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets look to bounce back from Monday’s lackluster loss as they take on the Guardians in game two of their three game set. With a 6:10 start time on Monday night, the Guardians wrapped the Mets up by an early 8:30 PM. The Mets pitching was there but the bats evaporated again after being a force the previous two games.

On paper tonight’s matchup could be much of the opposite with Houser (7.44 ERA) taking on Carrasco (5.16 ERA). Could be a long night!

Adrian Houser returns to the Mets rotation after a short stint in the bullpen. Overall this season he has pitched 32 2/3 innings with a 7.44 ERA, 5.20 FIP, 1.837 WHIP and a 52 ERA+. Compared to 2023, Houser is walking a lot more (2.7 to 6.3 BB/9) while striking out a lot less (7.8 to 4.7 K/9). Luckily, he’s keeping the ball in the park more (1.1 to 0.6 HR/9), otherwise his wayward ERA would be way worse. Houser has the following career numbers against the Guardians:

• Gabriel Arias 0-1, K
• David Fry 1-1
• Andrés Giménez 0-2, K
• Josh Naylor 0-2, K
• José Ramírez 0-1, 2 BB

The Mets bats will get to face an old friend tonight in Carlos Carrasco. Carrasco came to the Mets with Francisco Lindor and had 5.02 ERA, 4.40 FIP over 49 games across two seasons for the Mets. He now finds himself back in Cleveland, a club he spent 11 seasons with before joining the Mets. This season he has made nine starts totaling 45 1/3 innings with a 5.16 ERA, 5.33 FIP, 1.456 WHIP and a 74 ERA+. He’s also leading the league in wild pitches at four. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Harrison Bader 0-2
• J.D. Martinez 10-27, 2 2B, 2 HR, BB, 4 K
• Omar Narváez 4-15, 2B, 3 BB, 4 K
• Tyrone Taylor 0-4, K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Pete Alonso has been heating up for two weeks now. On May 6th Pete Alonso came into a game as a substitution and went 0-for-1 at the plate dropping his line for the season to .205/.293/.417. Since then he has played in 12 games going 16-for-51 at the plate with six doubles and two homers, hitting .314/.352/.549 over that stretch, thus raising his season line to .235/.309/.454.
2. Mets pitchers walk a lot, but they also strikeout a lot. Mets pitchers lead the league in walks allowed out 207. You know this. The whole world knows this. The next closest team is the Marlins with 191. The Mets pitchers though are also 7th in strikeouts at 420, just one strikeout behind the Dodgers (421) and a few behind the Yankees (424). When this team starts firing on all cylinders, they have the potential to make a Wild Card run.
3. Mets batters struck out too much last night. Here’s something that surprised me, Mets batters are 25th for strikeouts (with #1 striking out the most). Mets batters have struck out 366 times this year (Seattle leads the league with 486). It feels like the Mets strikeout numbers should be higher because of games like Monday night where everyone (literally every starter except Nido) strikes out. The Mets had 11K’s last night with Brett Baty’s 0-for-4, three punch-out night leading the way. If the Mets strikeout numbers dip tonight, they’re probably having a better night.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets escaped Miami Sunday without being swept and now have to face the first place team in the AL Central – the Cleveland Guardians. The Guardians have a 1.5 game lead and are on a three game winning streak with a 30-17 record. Their +59 run differential is the second best in the American League, trailing only the Yankees.

Things for the Mets have been a bit rocky with the Mets bullpen falling apart multiple times over the last week. Sunday though was good reset for the team with solid hitting and pitching. Let’s hope the Mets can ride that momentum to Ohio.

Tylor Megill returns from the injured list tonight. He made one start this season where he allowed two runs, only one earned over four innings from three hits and three walks while striking out four. He’s looked good across his rehab starts, allowing only one run from nine hits over 14 innings. In his last rehab start he threw 74 pitches, so hopefully the Mets can get the same if not more tonight.

Tylor Megill made 25 starts for the Mets in 2023 over 126 1/3 innings with a 4.70 ERA, 4.96 FIP, 1.575 WHIP and an 88 ERA+. The only Guardian who has faced him in a major league game is Austin Hedges (1-for-2, 2B).

Ben Lively is making his seventh start of the season today. Over his first six starts (32 1/3 innings) he has a 3.06 ERA, 4.36 FIP, 1.268 WHIP and a 125 ERA+. This a fairly dramatic improvement from his 2023 campaign where he threw 88 2/3 innings over 19 games with a 5.38 ERA, 5.35 FIP, 1.365 WHIP and an 86 ERA+. Lively has been a bit more hit-able in his last two starts allowing six runs from 13 hits over 10 2/3 innings.

Lively’s first game of 2023 was against the Mets where he pitched three scoreless innings of relief holding the Mets to four runs. The Mets have the following career numbers against Ben Lively:

• Pete Alonso 0-1
• Brett Bay 0-1
• Francisco Lindor 0-2, BB
• Starling Marte 2-5
• Jeff McNeil 0-1
• Brandon Nimmo 1-8, BB, 2 K
• Tyrone Taylor 1-3, HR

Three Things To Watch For:

1. The return of the American Spork. The talk of spring training was Tylor Megill’s American Spork. It’s a splitter pitch that he developed with Kodai Senga throughout the season, that he used a handful of times in his last start in 2023 and then throughout spring training. How many times will he throw it tonight? Will it be effective?
2. Anymore surprise illnesses? J.D. Martinez couldn’t start Sunday’s game due to flu-like symptoms. This has been happening to the Mets for the better part of two weeks now. Hopefully whatever is spreading around the Mets clubhouse stops soon.
3. Old Friends. Andrés Giménez is thriving in Cleveland. Over 44 games this season he is hitting .277/.377/.387 with a 110 OPS+, his third time in the last five seasons that his OPS+ is over 100. Carlos Carrasco is back with Cleveland and the Mets will see him tomorrow.

Let’s Go Mets!

Saturday’s game hurts. The Mets offense has struggled for swaths of the season, so losing a game after scoring nine runs from 15 hits almost feels unfair. Losing it because of the bullpen, which was the Mets greatest strength from start of the season adds another layer to that unfairness. But Saturday’s game is just one game of 162. A win today allows the Mets to avoid the sweep and try again to start a winning streak tomorrow.

Sean Manaea looks to lead the Mets back to the win column this afternoon. Over eight starts and 41 1/3 innings this season, Manaea has a 3.05 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 1.306 WHIP and 127 ERA+. Manaea is coming off of a strong start against the Phillies where he held them to one run over six innings from four hits and one walk. It was his third time in his last three starts that he allowed one run or less. More importantly though, it was his second straight start only walking one batter, allowing him to finish six innings for two straight starts. The Marlins have the following career numbers against Manaea:

• Jazz Chisholm Jr. 0-3, K
• Bryan De La Cruz 1-3, K
• Nick Fortes 2-2, 2 HR
• Emmanuel Rivera 1-3, HR, K

The Mets bats will get a look at Sixto Sánchez this afternoon in Miami. Sánchez was a highly touted prospect that impressed over seven games back in 2020, posting a 3.46 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 1.205 WHIP and a 132 ERA+ over 39 innings. Injuries have derailed his career, keeping him off the diamond completely in 2021 and 2022. He was able to pitch one inning in the minors last year.

This season the Marlins have used him both as a starter and as a reliever. Over 11 games he has pitched 22 2/3 innings with a 5.96 ERA, 4.60 FIP, 1.632 WHIP and a 72 ERA+. As a starter he has tossed 15 1/3 innings over four games allowing 13 runs, 10 earned (5.87 ERA) while striking out 10 batters. His last start was the deepest he has gone in a game going 4 2/3 innings holding the Tigers to three unearned runs. It was the first time this season he hit 80 pitches. There is no one on the current Mets roster who has faced Sánchez in a major league game.

Three Things To Watch For:

1. J.D. keeps hitting, so we’ll keep watching. J.D. Martinez went 2-for-5 at the plate Saturday with a double. This should feel familiar as it was the fourth time in his last six games that J.D. recorded at least two hits. Over this six game stretch Martinez has gone 10-for-24 at the plate with four extra-base hits slashing .417/.462/.667. The difference on Saturday was that the rest of the lineup around Martinez also hit, so he was able to knock in a couple of runs too.
2. Can Saturday’s breakouts turn into hot streaks? Starling Marte went 3-for-4 at the plate Saturday, it was the third time in the last five games that he has recorded at least two hits. This feels like Marte is breaking out of the slump he was mired in. Mark Vientos went 2-for-4 at the plate Saturday after going 0-for-6 in the previous two games. Jeff McNeil went 2-for-4 at the plate and now has hits in four of his last five games. The lineup feels so close to all clicking together.
3. Francisco Lindor: The only starter who didn’t get into Saturday’s hit parade was Francisco Lindor who went 0-for-5 at the plate (but still recorded an RBI and a run). Lindor is the heart of the team. When he starts to breakout we’ll see this offense going on all cylinders.

Let’s Go Mets!

Friday night was not a good one in Mets land. Christian Scott faced had his first difficult start in the majors while the offense just disappeared completely. The result was a Marlins 8-0 victory. For the Marlins, it was their fourth win in their last five games including three shutout victories.

The Mets can make this afternoon the inflection point for the series. Early offense, early effective pitching and the Mets can snap the Marlins right out of the hot streak they are currently on.

Luis Severino has pitched 45 innings over eight starts this season with a 3.00 ERA, 3.70 FIP, 1.200 WHIP and a 128 ERA+. He’s coming off of a successful start against the Braves where he held them to two runs over five innings from four hits and three walks. The walks prevented him from going deeper into the game. After five innings he tossed 94 pitches, and only 55 of them were for strikes (tied for his lowest strike total of the season). The Marlins have the following career numbers against him:

• Christian Bethancourt 0-2, 2 K
• Vidal Brujan 0-2
• Jake Burger 2-3, 2B, HR, K
• Emmanuel Rivera 0-3, 2 K

The Mets bats will get Braxton Garrett who is making his second start of the season. In his first start against the Phillies last week he allowed five runs from five hits and two walks while striking out eight over five innings. When he’s been on the field the last two seasons he’s been pretty consistent. In 2022 he had a 3.58 ERA, 3.56 FIP, 1.250 WHIP, 115 ERA+ over 88 innings. In 2023 he had a 3.66 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 1.146 WHIP and 125 ERA+ over 159 2/3 innings.

Due to the Mets and Marlins schedule last season, Braxton started his 2023 season by facing the Mets in back-to-back outings and then ended his 2023 season facing the Mets in back-to-back starts. Overall he had a 4.08 ERA, 1.472 WHIP over 17 2/3 innings of work. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Pete Alonso 6-15, 2 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
• Brett Baty 0-2
• Francisco Lindor 5-14, 2 2B, 3 HR, 3 K
• Starling Marte 3-5, 2 2B, K
• J.D. Martinez 0-3, 3 K
• Jeff McNeil 3-8, 2B, BB
• Omar Narváez 1-2
• Tomás Nido 1-3
• Brandon Nimmo 1-11, BB
• DJ Stewart 0-2, K
• Tyrone Taylor 0-4, K
• Mark Vientos 0-4, K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. J.D. Martinez is staying hot at the plate. While the rest of the Mets offense vanished on Friday night, Martinez went 2-for-4 at the plate. It was the third time in five games that Martinez recorded at least two hits. Overall in his last five games he has gone 8-for-19 with two doubles and a homer, hitting .421/.476/.684. He has reached based ten times but has only scored three times.
2. Mets need Vientos and Baty to both get back into rhythm. Vientos has gone 2-for-10 at the plate since returning to the majors. Both of those hits came in his first game back. Since then he has gone 0-for-6. Brett Baty hasn’t seen as much playing time since Vientos joined the team (due to the amount of left handed pitching the Mets have faced) and has gone 1-for-3 over two games.
3. The back of the Mets bullpen got the night off they needed. Losing a game by eight runs is not the optimal way to give the bullpen a rest, but all the high leverage relievers got the night off as Walker and Hartwig combined for four innings Friday night allowing four runs. When the Mets were racking up wins earlier in the season, the bullpen kept the team in games, regardless of the performance of the starting pitcher. The Mets sure need that bullpen now.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets survived Philadelphia!

Thursday night the Mets lost the lead twice, but were able to get the lead one more time in the 11th inning and just hold on for dear life. Now the Mets head to Miami, three games below .500, to face the struggling Miami Marlins.

Miami has spent most of the season struggling at historical levels. They are currently 13-32 and for a while were a candidate to possibly eclipse the 1962 Mets loss total. Things can never quite work out for the Mets and Miami has won three of their last four games, including beating the Phillies. So the Mets have the honor of facing the Marlins as a team on a roll for the first time in 2024.

Christian Scott looks to make it two wins in a row for the Mets this evening. Over his first two starts he has pitched 12 2/3 allowing four runs from 11 hits and three walks while striking out 14. He has a small-sample size 2.84 ERA, 2.64 FIP, 1.105 WHIP and a 137 ERA+. Scott looked good in his second start against a potent Atlanta lineup, generating 14 swing-and-miss strikes (he had 17 in his first start).

Jesús Luzardo has pitched 31 2/3 innings this season over six starts with a 5.97 ERA, 4.28 FIP, 1.326 WHIP and a 71 ERA+. His stats are being weighed down by two back-to-back starts in mid-April where he allowed 12 runs over 9 2/3 innings. In his last two starts he has allowed four runs from seven hits and four walks over 11 2/3 innings while striking out 14 batters (3.09 ERA, 1.74 FIP).

Luzardo poetically started his 2023 campaign against the Mets and ended it against the Mets. Overall he held the Mets to only one run over 12 1/3 innings while striking out 15 batters. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Pete Alonso 2-16, HR, 7 K
• Harrison Bader 1-3, BB
• Brett Baty 1-3
• Francisco Lindor 3-12, 2 BB, 3 K
• Starling Marte 2-6, K
• Jeff McNeil 4-10, 2 K
• Tomás Nido 1-5, BB, 3 K
• Brandon Nimmo 3-9, 2B, HR, 2 BB K
• DJ Stewart 0-4, K
• Tyrone Taylor 2-3, 2B
• Mark Vientos 0-6, BB, 3 K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Mets are still struggling with RISP. The Mets played an extremely close series with the Phillies, picking up one win and three losses. The Mets could have easily gone 3-1. Going 0-4 was also a distinct possibility. The issues the Mets had was closing games out and getting insurance runs. The Mets as a team last night went 3-for-15 with runners in scoring position. The Mets overall hit well in game, collecting eight total hits, but there was an opportunity to do a lot more damage. The Mets face a Marlins team that’s starting to get some confidence tonight and the Mets can squash that confidence collecting hits when they have RISP.
2. The back of the Mets bullpen. The Mets bullpen has been a strength for most of this season, but it has not been for the last week or so. Edwin Díaz blew his third save opportunity in his last five outings on Thursday night. Because the Phillies and Mets played multiple extra-inning games, the bullpen is taxed, with the Mets using five different relievers Thursday alone. The Mets need a chance to reset and breath. Hopefully Scott can go deep into tonight’s game and give the Mets bullpen that opportunity.
3. Harrison Bader providing the spark. The Mets were at their best earlier this season when Bader was the surprise spark in the Mets lineup. Thursday night he came off the bench and went 2-for-2 with a critical double. Let’s keep that spark and energy going through the weekend!

Let’s Go Mets!