213 Miles From Shea

In our final installment of the 2011 Preview Series, we look at the our favorite team, the New York Mets.

The Mets have been bashed by the media and all prediction websites. They have no rotation. They have too many front office problems. There are no players coming up through the system. There is no hope. The bullpen is anchored by a crazy man.

All of the above, well is actually up for debate. Crazy, I know.

Before we start to walk through this year's team, let's look back to a year ago. Last season at this time we were all, or at least I was, raving about the offense, and worried about the rotation. Well after a full season of Mets baseball, the rotation was fine, the offense was just MIA. The Mets had a silently awesome rotation last season. Just no one knows about it.

What it comes down to for the Mets this season, is all the pieces just have to step up. Really the Mets don't have any key weak areas, it is just that they have had disappointing seasons from players in their current positions. If the majority of the Mets can at least be a fraction of what they are supposed to be, this team becomes amazing on paper. Picture this. If the Reyes is a shade of what he was in 2006 and Wright almost repeats last year. Bay becomes closer to his average and Beltran is Beltran. Pagan and Davis repeat and Thole steps up. Suddenly this line up is awesome. If Pelfrey stays consistent, Niese and Dickey repeat, and Capuano and Young extrapolate their springs, this rotation is really set.

That is they story right there of the 2011 Mets. If everyone just performs how they are supposed to, this team is scary. This team makes a playoff run. I know that is a lot to ask for. Someone won't step up probably. But at the same time, someone will that we were not expecting.

Of course I feel this way because I follow the Mets, and I know the ceilings of all the players. Perhaps I'm more positive this year solely because everyone else is so negative. When it is all said and recorded on the internet, I feel there are strong reasons to believe this team can win.

The last division preview is for the best division in baseball, the NL East. All bias aside, this is the toughest division in baseball as four teams could make the playoffs from this division. The Phillies have four aces, the Braves have aces and hitting talent, the Marlins didn't lose much, the Mets could surprise and even the Nationals got better. It could be a long summer as teams will be fighting all year long.

The Phillies:

The Phillies are the odds on favorite to win the division due to that rotation. They have a few injuries right now, but the four horsemen are very hard to bet against. That being said, a few seasons ago everyone said the Tigers would have 1000 runs, and that didn't happen. At all. The Phillies will probably win this division.

The Braves:

The Braves have the rotation and the lineup to make a serious run at the Wild Card. However, some things have to go right. First off, the pitchers will need to perform. A misstep and another team in this division will come right up. Second, the hits will have to come. With Uggla, they have a nice looking lineup. Things look good for this club as long as everything works.

The Marlins:

They have a Marlin esque rotation, and young bats. They didn't change much from last season, but they didn't really need to. If the raw talent on this team matures, the too look to make a run.

The Nationals:

The odd team out. They lost power from Dunn leaving and they won't have the spark of Strasburgh. While they have talent, the teams around them have more talent.

The Mets:

It has become chic to pick the Mets last. I'm biased but I also see potential for a lot more. I'll do this in more detail tomorrow, but if Niese and Dickey are on, and Young and Capuano make good comeback campaigns, this is a good team. The other way to say this, which I will do a lot tomorrow is the Mets don't have any missing pieces, they just need their actual pieces to perform the way they are supposed to.

One of the major complaints (I really wish there was a softer word for that, because this isn't that big of an issue) over spring training has been the lack of teams the Mets have been able to play. Since the East Coast of Florida has started to become a baseball ghost town, the Mets have had the option of playing mainly, the Marlins, Cardinals, Nationals and Braves. It makes sense that in the final days of Spring, that teams would want to travel less as well. So on the schedule, the Mets, including today, have played the Marlins Three Times (one that was rained out).

The Mets also open up the season against the Marlins.

Really?

I know this isn't that big of a deal, but hopefully the MLB Scheduling office has been listening to someone in the Mets organization this Spring. The same problem is going to happen with the Mets next season. They are going to mainly play the Marlins, Cardinals, Nationals and Braves in Spring. So next year, maybe we should not open the season against one of those teams.

(I can't restate enough how minuscule of an issue this actually is, I think I'm just tired of knowing the opponents as well as my own team).

This year's Major League Baseball Opening Day schedule just feels strange. The new schedule this year just doesn't feel the same, and although the games are technically starting earlier in the year, it feels like it is starting later.

But before I elaborate those claims, let's discuss some brief history on Opening Day. Historically, the first Opening Day pitch was held in Cincinnati, the home of the oldest franchise in the MLB. They would have the first game, and then everyone else would follow (to this day, they always open up at home). Then the first major change to Opening Day happened in this past decade where the team that won the World Series would open up on ESPN the Sunday Night before everyone else.

This year there was a major shift as the Opening Day is scheduled for a Thursday and Friday. On Thursday, there will be a semi-slate of games, with the night cap being the World Champion Giants against the Dodgers. Then everyone else joins in the fray on Friday.

While Opening Day this year is early (March 31st for some teams), it just feels later, and I think I figured out why. I'm so used to Opening Day being at the start of the week, that the final wait for Opening Day was replaced by the weekend. It's hard to to be completely impatient for opening day when you can distract yourself with the weekend. But this year, at the end of the week (and for me personally, the day after two Astrophysics Midterms) it just feels like forever away, although it's only a two days away.

Oh well, it's all relative anyway.

The East is going to be a very interesting division this year. The Red Sox have retooled. The Yankees are the Yankees. The Orioles, quietly, got a lot better. The Rays shifted. It should be very interesting watching these teams have to play each other and then play teams outside of the division.

Boston Red Sox:

From the start of the winter, the Red Sox gave their fans multiple reasons to be excited about this upcoming season. Specifically, they completely restocked their lineup. By adding in Gonzalez and Crawford, they reshape what was already a dangerous lineup into one that is startling. Crawford already knows the pitchers in the division and Gonzalez finally gets the big market stage he needs to become a household name. With their pitching and hitting, they will make a very strong push this season.

New York Yankees:

The Yankees didn't improve too much this season, but they kept their important players from last year, and at the end of the day, they are the Yankees. Their rotation may not have Lee, but it is still dangerous. Their lineup may not have Crawford, but it is still scary. They have all the pieces to make a run in the division this year.

Tampa Bay Rays:

The Rays lost a ton of players this off-seaosn, except not all hope is lost. The rotation is not as crafty as it was last year, but Damon and Manny are interesting additions to the team. Specifically, multiple sources keep saying that Manny is on a mission this year. If those two players somehow make up for a Crawford type player, and the parts of the team that are still around play well, then they have a shot, a really outside shot, but they still have a shot.

Baltimore Orioles:

The Orioles will once again be held back by their pitching again this year. Unless their rotation steps up and surprises people, they will not be in contention, which is a shame because the offense is dangerous. If they stay healthy, which is already a concern during Spring, the infield will have Lee, Roberts, Hardy and Reynolds. They also have Vlad, Markakis and Jones (maybe the best offensive outfield in the majors). If this squad can click on all cylinders, it will be exciting, but that rotation will keep this team down.

Toronto Blue Jays:

It sucks to be the Blue Jays. Between the Yankees and Red Sox, and then the Rays and Orioles, there is just no room in this division for everyone to be on the up.

Last year could have been the start of the changing of the guard in the NL Central. Last season, the Reds matured to the Division Champions their raw talent shows they should be, and the Cards took a seat in second place. The Cards lost another key player during Spring (more on that later) and that opens up this division for the Brewers to compete for second or first.

Cincinnati Reds:

The Reds look to repeat, and they have the players to do so. It starts with the rotation, to the lineup and the bullpen. Everything with this club looks strong. The rotation isn't the best, but it is above average. The bullpen is above average. The lineup is above average. The key for the Reds being above average in all of these areas is the stars (Cueto, Bruce, Votto, Bailey, Chapman) are all on their upsides at the same time. They should be going up from here. Look for the Reds to stay in the hunt if not in first place all season long.

St. Louis Cardinals:

At the start of Spring they looked to be in a position to take back the number one spot, but they lost one of their key players, Adam Wainwright. Usually in baseball one injury doesn't spell the end of a team, but without Wainwright, things are not looking that good for the Cards. They will still be competitive, and will be involved in the race, but this loss brings the Brewers that much closer to the Cards for a division shake up.

Brewers:

The Brew Crew added a key player this off-season in Grienke, and now look really formidable. When Zach comes back, he will round out their rotation nicely and give the Brewers a set of reliable starters day in and day out. On top of that, they already had a solid lineup with the bats. Make no mistake, this team will surprise people who haven't been following the developments in the mid-west baseball scene.

Chicago Cubs:

It is hard to see a scenario with the Cubs winning the division, with the three teams that were mentioned above. If the Cubs offense comes back together this year, and the starters perform well, then they could sneak into the the division race, but really, I just don't see it with the Reds and the Brewers. However, we play the games for a reason.

Houston Astros:

The Astros have an average to a below average starting rotation and an average lineup. With three teams looking strong and then the Cubs, things aren't that bright for Astros. For them to have a chance, the lineup is going to have to explode, and I really do not know enough about the Astros outside of Bourn, Pence, and Lee to see where the explosion is going to come from.

Pittsburgh Pirates:

Clint Hurdle has his work cut out for him. I don't really have to go into this. The lineup and the rotation is a mess, which makes sense because someone in the league has to have that.

Using statistics and awesome math both ESPN and ZIPS have rolled out projections for all of the New York Mets. While it would be difficult to post all of them here, thus you should check the respective sites, I wanted to share the main numbers here:

David Wright:

Generally considered the main fantasy player from this club, the question for Wright is if he can get to 30 homers this year. Last year he got to 29 and ESPN feels he is going to reach the same mark again, while ZIPS feels his power will drop slightly:

ESPN: 606 AB, 95 R, 29 HR, 100 RBI, 19 SB, .294 BA

ZIPS: 586 AB, 94 R, 25 HR, 99 RBI, 23 SB, .283 BA, 36 2B

Jose Reyes:

He could be a real kicker for this squad. Or he could be traded midway through the season

ESPN: 590 AB, 86 R, 12 HR, 56 RBI, 36 SB, .286 BA

ZIPS: 517 AB, 80 R, 11 HR, 54 RBI, 39 SB, .284 BA

Ike Davis:

He was great in his rookie season. What do the computers say for his second time around?

ESPN: 537 AB, 74 R, 22 HR, 75 RBI, .272 BA

ZIPS: 553 AB, 76 R, 22 HR, 79 HR, .257 BA

Jason Bay:

Last year was injury ridden and just an all around disappointment. What about this year for the slugger?

ESPN: 504 AB, 85 R, 19 HR, 84 RBI, .268 BA

ZIPS: 444 AB, 71 R, 20 HR, 76 RBI, .252

And you can visit the sites for the rest. The two players they seem to really differ on would be Reyes and Bay. ZIPS has Reyes playing a lot less than ESPN, yet putting up similar numbers, suggesting that if Reyes would play equal to ESPN, he would rack up more numbers. The same situation happens to Bay. ZIPS has Bay playing a lot less, and actually putting up slightly better numbers in terms of Homers, suggesting that the ZIPS system predicts more power out of Bay than the ESPN computer.

But, we play the games for a reason, so we'll see how true any of this becomes.

The AL Central, from the vantage point of the pre-season, looks to be a three team race again this season. The Twins, White Sox, and Tigers all have good shots at taking the division this year, with the Twins and the White Sox on the inner track. Outside of the race track are the Indians and the Royals who are left struggling again this season, and will need a lot of surprises on each of their squads to come away with the division title.

Minnesota Twins:

The Twins play through tough positions often, and generally come out well, which is why I hardly ever worry about them. Last season they were without one of their best batters, played in a new ballpark and Mauer struggled with power all season, yet they still ended the season in first place. Their pitching is also solid. If they stay healthy, they will be in the driver seat for the division crown.

Chicago White Sox:

The White Sox will make things very interesting in the division. They have also have a solid rotation, and the addition of Dunn will add some much needed pop into this offense. If the bats gel together at the start of the season, they could have one of those classic AL Central races where they change 1-2 with the Twins all year long.

Detroit Tigers:

As of now the Tigers are looking in, and that is only because they were at .500 last season. They can easily take this division this season. Victor Martinez rounds out their lineup nicely, and if the the lineup doesn't fall back to injuries like last year, then they can cause a lot of noise. The key player for me here is Brad Penny. If Penny surprises in the rotation, then they will have another key weapon to push back the Sox and Twins.

Cleveland Indians:

The Indians are held back by their rotation. Their lineup could be dangerous, but doesn't seem that bad when after Carmona, the rest of the rotation just isn't that proven yet. They really didn't add much this year, so things look bleak.

Kansas City Royals:

Things just look bad here. The key bat addition is Frenchy, then things are definitely looking bad. The real problem for the Royals is the starting rotation. They traded away Grienke and they also lost Meche to retirement. Things aren't so bad with this team though. The farm system is ridiculous. In other words, it is a box of chocolates. If a lot of the young guys matriculate to the big leagues, who knows what will happen.

The NL West was a major surprise last season. At the start of the season it looked like it would be a three team race of the Dodgers/Rockies/Giants with the Padres and Diamondbacks looking in from the outside. It also looked like it was the Dodgers who had the early advantage. Then the surprise of the year (that within one game reduced itself to nothing) was the Padres who led the division for the majority of the season, lost it towards to the end and got into a three team race with the Giants and the Rockies. The Giants would go on to win the division (and the World Series) and the Rockies would lose out in the playoff race to the Padres. The Padres would then lose the play in situation with the Braves who would go into the playoffs. The moral of the story is that surprises happen which is why we play the games.

Anyway, this year looks to be a three team race again with the Giants vs the Rockies, the Dodgers sitting on the periphery with the Padres and the Diamondbacks sitting on the outside.

San Francisco Giants:

The World Series champions have the best rotation int he division. Like all teams with a strong rotation, they need just enough offense to get them through the season. Last year it was easy to mock the lineup but the lineup showed last year that they could surprise people with offense. If Posey has a big season again, and they get consistent offense from somewhere else, this team will be in the race all season long.

Colorado Rockies:

The Rockies were handicapped by critical injuries last season which held them back from taking over the division. They also have a strong pitching staff, and they have a strong lineup, probably the second best lineup in the Division. If another pitcher outside of Jimenez and De La Rosa steps up, then the Rockies will be in the race all season long.

Los Angeles Dodgers:

The Dodgers probably have the best lineup in the division, the question for them will be the rotation. Billingsley and Kershaw will be reliable, but the rest of the rotation is questionable for how good they could be. Similar to the Rockies, if someone could step up, like Kuroda here, and carry over for the bats, then they will be able to make this division into a three team race, if not, this division will come down to the Rockies and Dodgers.

San Diego Padres:

The Padres could surprise again, however it is unlikely. The Padres have a lot of young players in the lineup and in the rotation that were good last year, but they all need to repeat that in order the team to be good again this year. In other words, they have to hope that the rest of the league hasn't figured them out yet. They started to run into this at the end of last season, and it could come again strong this year. If these players can rise above this, then they will contend. If not, then they won't. Not having Gonzalez also hurts.

Arizona Diamondbacks:

They made some good moves this offeseason, it just isn't their time yet. They brought in people that want to win and they unloaded risky players like Reynolds that were very all or nothing. The rotation isn't there this season so it will be really difficult for them to compete in this division.

Interesting news from MLB Trade Rumors yesterday that former Mets closer, Branden Looper retired.

Essentially, Looper was already retired. But the Cubs offered him a 1 million dollar contract if he made the major league club, so he came out of retirement to Spring Training. The Cubs told him yesterday that he wouldn't make the team, so he decided to actually retire. According to MLBTR, he had offers from other teams, but he only wanted to pitch with the Cubs to be close to his family.

The image of Lopper I have burned in my mind is him on the mound rubbing his pitching hand with a nervous grin on his face as he gives up a homer that allows the other team to get back in the game. Yep. That image will always be with me.