213 Miles From Shea

The Dodgers are gearing up to sell their franchise (something a lot of Mets fans would wish would happen to the Amazin’s) and there is a possibility of a bidding war for the rights to the team. In a blog post by Buster Olney (described by MLB Trade Rumors), Olney describes a possible scenario that would make Cole Hamels a Dodger.

Essentially the situation starts with the sale of the Dodgers. If a bidding war takes place, the sale, as projected by both websites, could go up to 1.6 billion.

Buster Olney then points out the obvious that if someone invests that much into a team, they are going to do what it takes to win, probably by spending money.

Olney then notes that Hamels, who will be a free agent next year, could be offered a lot to be in LA.

Obviously there is much to this story, just a lot of hypothetical statements with no rumor basis in reality, but it does pose an interesting situation for the Phillies next season. Their very strong rotation right now needs Hamels as he is still rising while the rest of that rotation looks to start declining soon. A 2013, or even 2014 seasons without Hamels will first be alright, then manageable, but down the road it becomes hairy, especially in a division that projects to have a young, talented Mets team in 2014, a young, veteran Nationals team in 2014, and a Marlins team with a lot of money.

I guess this story struck me because I hadn’t thought too much recently about the Phillies without Hamels, and how it could easily happen.

It was known that the Marlins were trying to add another pitcher, and they made that a reality tonight. Earlier this week it was thought that the Marlins would do this either by signing for Saunders or by going after Garza. In reality, they acquired Zambrano in a trade.

If the trade goes through, still depending on Carlos waiving his no trade clause, the Cubs will get Chris Volstad and will also pay 15 million of his owed 18 million.

In terms of long term development, the Marlins getting Zambrano instead of Matt Garza is much better for every other team in the division, as the last thing the Mets, Phillies, Nationals, and Braves want is the Marlins to get a developing pitcher. I do wonder if the Marlins didn’t have the pieces to acquire Garza. The Marlins used to have a lot of talent in the minors, but the high tier prospects have now become their untradeable young core, and there have been some whispers that the Marlins farm system isn’t too appealing to opposing GM”s.

Volstad was a pitcher who struggled and Zambrano is a pitcher who is struggling, who could go through a revival under manager Ozzie Guillien. Zambrano makes the Marlins rotation stronger since he is the 5th pitcher in that rotation, and who would complain about that? It’s worth a shot and the Marlins will need some surprises to upset the Phillies.

For the Mets, on the short term side, it is harder to have hope for this team. We still have one of the more surprising offenses in the division but now our rotation is even weaker in comparison to the other teams. That paired with our generally weak pen at the moment could make for a long season in a division that is now talent heavy.

Baseball is very different than every other major sporting league in that multiple season rebuilding really takes multiple seasons. It is very rare for draft picks to come up and play immediately like in the NFL and since rosters are large, it is very difficult to buy a few players for a long term impact, like in the NBA. Compounding with the length of time it takes players to enter the league, baseball is the sport where players stay the longest. Long term success is generally built around a few strong players that can stick with a team and enter their prime together.

The Phillies showed that a complete build around strong players can lead to long term success as they have run the league from 2007 and probably through at least this coming season. If you remember, they started to show life at the end of 2006, and will development, were able to break the Mets chance of forming back to back championships in 2007. Before the Phillies, the Braves used a strong system to take care of the division for a record setting time.

The Phillies are still a powerhouse, but there time will be ending soon as they start to age and be held back by long term contracts. For the Mets, right now, this is acceptable. There is not a strong possibility of the Mets making a run at the division for the next two seasons, but 2014 could be promising.

The next hurdle for the Mets would be the Braves, who are developing a strong core, but there is another, more impressive team developing a really strong core, that could lead to a power shift in the division, and that team would be the Washington Nationals. Their rotation has three strong pitchers in Strasburg, Gonzalez and Zimmermann. The bullpen is anchored by Clippard and Storen. On top of the pitching, are the strong position players, that are also young: Zimmerman, Espinosa, Rasmos and the eventual promotion of Harper. Plus, Morse had a surprising season and they still have Jason Werth on the roster.

Here’s the difference between the Nationals and a team like the Marlins. The Marlins were a good team, that added pieces and became a strong team this offseason. The pieces they added though have injury, age and monetary risk attached. Taking one chance is one thing, but three is a lot of chances (look at the Mets for an example of that). The Nationals are in a position right now that they could add only one piece, and they will be ok, that person could be Prince Fielder.

If the Nationals added Fielder, or even if they don’t, they are a team that I’m afraid about, especially in 2014 when the Mets look to be competitive again. One player that is very intriguing is Espinosa, who smacked 21 homers last season. The Nationals have the potential to develop into a very strong team and because they are doing it with youth, with very few players yet to enter their prime. They could do this for the long haul.

If there is a silver lining in this. The Mets could follow the same formula with the crop of stars that are deep in the farm system. However putting a guarantee to that statement would be immature.