213 Miles From Shea

Happy President’s Day.

I was watching the MLB Network tonight, who ran a story about the Nationals’ tryouts for their running mascots. If you don’t know, and I have no idea how you wouldn’t know this, the Nationals have one of the best reincarnations of the racing mascots at their stadiums with George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Abe Lincoln and Teddy Roosevelt. The race is rigged so Teddy doesn’t win.

In an attempt to be funny, or something (honestly I have no idea why), the Broadcasters had a discussion about if they feel Teddy can actually win. It led with Bill Ripken exclaiming that its rigged (as to move the conversation along) and Eric Byrnes showing off an impressive amount of knowledge of US Presidents.

Anyway, they also showed some video of the Racing Presidents visiting the New York Islanders. For President’s day. Apparently this has been happening for a few years now.

I. Don’t. Get. It.

One of the mysteries for the Mets going into Spring is what are they going to get out of Andres Torres. Torres is looking to bounce back from a disappointing 2011 campaign after a great 2010 season. As of right now, he is the current starter in center for the Mets and is projecting to be the current lead off hitter. However with a few OF coming up through the minors (hello Captain Kirk), there will be pressure on Torres throughout the season to produce. Here are is 2011 numbers, followed by the Baseball Prospectus Projection MLB.com Projection:

2011: 348 AB, .221 BA, 4 HR, 19 RBI, 19 SB, .312 OBP
BP Projection: 584 PA, 12 HR, 66 RBI, .247 BA, .316 OBP, 24 SB
MLB Projection: 411 AB, .243 BA, 10 HR, 30 RBI, 22 SB, .325 OBP

Some interesting highlights stand out. BP projects a lot more Plate Appearances, hence more AB’s for Torres, and higher Batting Average. Both systems have similar projections for batting average. MLB has Torres playing a lot less, but hitting for more power, and stealing more bases. BP, even with the jump of AB’s, says he will have a lot more RBI’s.

If these are his numbers, they are a nice bump, a really nice bump out of what he produced last year, but how is it compared to what the Mets had before in Pagan:

2011: 478 AB, .268 BA, 7 HR, 56 RBI, 32 SB, .322 OBP
BP Projection: 621 PA, 8 HR, 65 RBI, 31 SB, .266 BA, .317 OBP
MLB Projection: 500 AB, .280 BA, 8 HR, 60 RBI, 34 SB

Torres’ 2012 projections are better than what the Mets got from Pagan in 2011, but not as good as Pagan’s 2012 projections. BP and MLB are in much more agreement for what Pagan will do next year, which looks like he will play a full season, not hit for power, and steal a lot of bases. The Mets look to be losing speed without Pagan, but gain some pop potential with Torres. None of this is a surprise though as anyone could have you told you this in the winter.

I’m curious to see what we will get out of Torres, especially since, like many Mets, he will be paying with a chip on his shoulders from naysayers and people calling him a 5th OF. And some OF’s breathing down his neck from the minor league level in 2012.

There is one article I have trouble writing every year, so I usually don’t write it at all because when does Spring Training really start?

I would love to write a countdown article for the beginning of Spring, because that is the beginning of the baseball season. So much will happen between now and April 6th that even though that is the real start of the season, the 2012 season starts now.

But when is now?

Is it tomorrow when Pitchers and Catchers “report”?
Is it the next day when they actually get their physicals?
Is it the day after that when they really work out?
Is it a few days later when the position players start camp?
Is it the first whole team work out?
Is it last week when players started to arrive at camp?
Is it more than a week ago when players were already working out?
Is it March 3rd when the Mets start playing Spring Training Games?
Is it the day before when the Mets play an intrasquad game?

The personal struggle I have with Spring Training articles is too many countdowns. Too many official days. So tomorrow on paper is the official start of spring, but spring has already started, especially with Johan throwing a session last Friday.

I am beyond excited that Spring is starting soon. I’m even more excited that Spring has already started.

” I wish I could have lived my life like Gary Carter… He was a true man… I have always respected him”
– Darryl Strawberry

Gary Carter’s passing has brought out one common theme over and over again. He was more than just a baseball player. In a day when athletes are often remembered for their ability to play the game, and their passion (which Carter is being remembered for) Carter is being equally honored for his character and his positive influence on others.

“A life is not important except in the impact it has on other lives”
– Jackie Robinson

Well, the Orioles situation with South Korea just got more, well Orioles.

Because honestly, the only other two franchises this could happen to either the Pirates, or the Mets.

Anyway, the MLB announced today that it will step in and void Kim’s contract. The Orioles will still be able to sign Kim at a later date. Basically, this move has to be done because relations between the KBA and the MLB have really fell apart since the Orioles stepped in and signed Kim without following protocol.

At this point, this is just bad for the Orioles. Whether they made the move with intent of breaching protocol or not, they now lost Kim (for now), are still banned from South Korea, and now have the MLB in a difficult PR situation. The sad part is, this isn’t surprising! The Orioles have been so disheveled the last decade, getting this involved in a situation seems to fit the team model.

A few days ago, an article was posted on Fox Sports about how the Mets will be one of 5 teams that won’t make the World Series this year. Here’s the actual point of the article, the author labels 5 teams that did not improve at all during the offseason. To me, that is a little different than their claim but whatever.

I’m not going to sit here and say that the Mets are going to make the World Series, or that the Mets will even be in contention. It is much more likely that the reverse is true. However, this claim is a little fast and loose, as there are real possibilities of things going right, that have the Mets being in contention.

In short, if I was Terry Collins, this article is in locker room. But not just by itself.

In the real world, I’m a teacher. One of the things that I know is really important for my students is me going beyond just filling up my students with hope. I need to fill them with hope AND give them something tangible to build on and grasp. The Mets have a few tangible things that they must be, and probably already are, aware of.

First, the 2011 Arizona Diamondbacks. This article brings up a great point that 28 out of 30 analysts at Baseball Prospectus had the Dbacks finishing last place in the NL West. The West last year, is not like the East this year, but there were enough teams with enough talent + the surprising season from the Padres before, to paint a really dark picture for the Dbacks. Last year, I said at this time that the Diamondbacks were only team with no chance to be out of the cellar last season. They had a youth explosion that led them.

There are similarities to both squads. Arizona had a young lineup that fully broke out last year, led by Justin Upton. The Mets have a young lineup that have several players on the brink of breaking out. There is David Wright at the helm with the young stars of Davis, Murphy and Duda. If they break out, our line up, (Tangible Material), would be even better than it was last year, and last year we had Jose Reyes. The media perception of losing Reyes is stronger than the reality since we missed so many pieces last season.

Going into 2011, the problems for the Diamondbacks was their pitching. Sound familiar? The Mets critically upgraded their bullpen this season. It isn’t the best bullpen in the league, but having a set 9th and 8th inning guy this season is a huge step ahead of last year. Plus, having Ramon Ramirez adds much needed depth.

So the last question mark is the rotation, which also has the possibility of breaking out, but with a lot of questions. Will Dickey return to his form? How will Niese and Gee respond to successful seasons? Will Santana be even 70% of himself? Will Pelfrey return to glory days? Same questions with different players for Arizona last year, and their players played with something to prove and carried the team.

The Mets are in the same situation.

The players on the Mets are playing with something to prove. We likely won’t be going to the World Series, but to be written off at the beginning of the season is powerful material to play with, when players have something to prove.

So if the Mets were my High School students, I would show them what others are saying. I would show them how other players in similar positions succeeded. I would show them How they succeeded with practical, tangible steps. Finally, I would show them why they, as the Mets, can make it happen.

Personally, I am more surprised that Cespedes is not a Marlin, rather than him being an Athletic.

Going into this offseason, even before the Marlins showed how they were going to spend money, it just felt that Cespedes would be a good fit for the Marlins. He is a young, talented OF who would join Stanton and play in a market that would go crazy for Yoenis. He would create new sources of revenue for the team in a way that other players could not.

As it turned out, the Marlins filled those needs with Jose Reyes and were looking to lock Cespedes up for 6 years. If Cespedes turns out to be a good player, the 6 years, slightly under 40 million the Marlins were offering seemed to be a really good deal for the Marlins franchise, and a deal that would drive me mad knowing that Cespedes would help with the age factor on that Marlins squad.

Out of no where, the Athletics came in, offered a similar deal in terms of money, but only 4 years. For the Athletics, this prevents them from finishing in last place now, and giving them star power on their roster when they inevitably move to a new stadium in San Jose. For Cespedes, he gets a contract that would release him at age 30, in his prime. If he has 4 good years as an Athletic, he would be looking at a big pay raise. Baseball Prospectus came out with a report saying that Cespedes was looking for ethier a 4 year deal or an 8-10 year deal, which would make sense. That would be a contract that lets him out right at his prime, or one way after. In other words, he would avoide that awkward 32 year old free agent when teams may be hesitant to offer a lot of years and a lot of money.

For the Marlins though, this could potentially be a major loss. The team could use some youth and the farm system is running dry. They have put themselves in the same position now that the 2006-07 Mets did in that they must win now, because age and injuries are coming up right behind them.

Baseball Prospectus released their 2012 Prospects List (No Subscription)! Let’s see where the Mets ranked overall on their list:

25. Matt Harvey
30. Zach Wheeler
89. Jeurys Familia

This short list isn’t too surprising for a few reasons:

1. There’s always a hype factor with prospects, and these are the three players with the most hype in the Mets system
2. On top 100 lists, even though their placements sometimes shuffle up and down, these are the three players always included
3. While the Mets farm system is on the rise, many of the pitchers are still in that “C” range, where they need one more season in order to be labeled as a top caliber prospects.

I’m really curious to see how the farm system appears on these lists next season, as I feel, because I’m a crazy optimist, that the Mets will have a lot of players break upwards this season.

Living in Newark, NJ now (yes, the name of this website has been irrelevant for the last 6 months), I get a good fill of New York sports news, which is great. One thing I miss though is Baltimore sports news. Baltimore sports news, specifically about the Orioles, is a combination of extremely depressing, pathetic and sometimes absolutely bizarre.

My Dad sent me an article today, explaining that the Orioles are effectively banned from South Korea.

Really. Like actually they can no longer scout the Korean Baseball Organization. The league actually governs the High School and College games in the country as well, so the Orioles are no longer welcomed to scout Korean players, right now, at any level.

How did this happen?

Last month, the Orioles signed Kim Seong-min, one of the best pitching prospects in South Korea. The left hander is 17, and signed a 550,000 dollar contract and will be with the team in Minor League Spring Training. According to the Baltimore Sun, “Kim…was not reportedly in his final year of high school when the Orioles signed him”*. the Korean Baseball League is upset at the Orioles because in their eyes, since Kim was not out of high school yet, the O’s breached protocol by swooping in and signing Kim. The League now wants overall tighter regulations when dealing with the MLB and Korean prospects (essentially a home field advantage in keeping their own citizens).

I heard a very interesting take on this situation on radio today. There is the complete possibility that the Orioles really like Kim, knew the rules, but didn’t want to risk losing Kim. So they decided to risk their future in scouting in Korea for signing Kim. I guess this is possible.

Overall, I just find it really entertaining that the Orioles organization is now essentially banned from scouting the entire country of South Korea. Judging by the Orioles record of signing players out of South Korea, which would just be Kim, I don’t think the O’s are too torn up about this.

* Encina, Eduardo. “O’s scouts can’t go to S. Korean Tourneys” 2/10/12 Baltimore Sun

Baseball Prospectus rolled out their first versions of their projections for this year, projections they promise to update several more times throughout the off-season (which makes sense as players playing time can sometimes be difficult to predict right now), while I don’t want to spill all the beans, mainly because you have to pay to look at the spreadsheet and their work is worth paying for, I did want to share some of their great work.

I can’t stress enough how worth it is to buy a subscription to Baseball Prospectus for this spreadsheet and access to their articles, written by people that can actually write and stuff.

Anyway, let’s look at what BP thinks some of the Mets Position Starters will do this year:

Wright: .290 BA, .373 OBP, 34 2B, 20 HR, 80 RBI, 19 SB
2011 Numbers: .254 BA, .345 OBP, 23 2B, 14 HR, 61 RBI, 13 SB
Career Numbers: .300 BA, .380 OBP

It looks like BP’s formula are targeting Wright for a bounce back season. His averages look below his career numbers, but look a lot better than his 2011 numbers. The only stat I disagree with is his RBI. If he plays the full season, I feel he will be more in the 95-105 range for RBI’s.

Davis: .269 BA, .348 OBP, 20 HR, 72 RBI
2011 Numbers: .302 BA, .383 OBP, 7 HR (35 G)
Career Numbers: .271 BA, .357 OBP

They are predicting Davis very close to his career numbers. His numbers drop off mainly because he was in a hot streak when he got inured last year. However, the optimist feels the homerun numbers are low, real low.

Murphy: .288 BA, .336 OBP, 11 HR, 70 RBI
2011 Numbers: .320 BA, .362 OBP, 6 HR, 49 RBI
Career Numbers: .292 BA, .343 OBP

The way BP sees Murphy is that his hitting frequency was too high last year, and they see his numbers dropping off from his career. They do see a big turn around in his power numbers. You are now going to see the real fan in me jump out. I think his numbers will be higher than this. I’m with R.A. Dickey in thinking that Murphy will have a breakout season.

Bay: .255 BA, .343 OBP, 18 HR, 63 RBI
2011 Numbers: .245 BA, .329 OBP, 12 HR, 57 RBI
Career: .274 BA, .369 OBP

I agree with BP on Bay’s numbers. Mainly because he didn’t really give any reason yet to change my mind. Since expectations for him have been lowered, these numbers seem quite good (18 homers? I’ll take that!)