213 Miles From Shea

The market for pitching, free agents and trades has radically changed today. The Angels came out of no where and signed Josh Hamilton to a 5 year deal. It looks like Anibal Sanchez is about to sign with the Cubs. If he doesn’t sign with the Cubs, he’ll be signing with the Tigers. For this article, that doesn’t make much of a difference since its not with Texas.

From a Mets trade perspective, this could have two completely different impacts on the Texas Rangers:

1. The Rangers will feel pressured to make a move for an impact pitcher, and may change their offer to the Mets. However I think that’s more of my heart saying that then my brain. My brain is saying that…

2. The Rangers will be reluctant to trade anyone who can play in the OF without Hamilton in the lineup as a force.

The Angels now become an interesting situation in the league. They have an overloaded OF and possibly could trade either Bourjos or Trumbo. Earlier in the off-season the Angels and the Mets may have been a match, however according to several different sources online, talks have really cooled off between the Angels and the Mets. However, the Angels came out of no where to get Hamilton, and maybe they trade one of their outfield chips to get the last pitcher they need to become an over the top team. Can you imagine if Dickey has a similar 2013 as he had in 2012 with the offense of the Angels behind him? It would be insane.

I’m not buying the Angels aren’t trade partners yet only because the Angels are now in year 2 of making rash decisions, and now can be making a huge push to win now.

Side Note: If the Tigers fall out of Sanchez, this may be the best bet for the Mets to create a bidding war for Dickey.

The major holding pattern over the MLB Hot Stove has been eased tonight as it looks like the Dodgers have signed Greinke to a 6 year, 145 million deal. At this moment (8:54, ET), the deal is not close to official and still technically in the rumor stage, but MLBTR is reporting that the Rangers have been told they are out out of the race, and all of the baseball reporters are talking about a deal, so it should be safe to assume that Greinke is about to agree to a contract. This comes as a bit of a surprise with the reports from earlier today and yesterday saying that he was blown away with the presentation by the Rangers, that he felt he could win with the Rangers and the beneficial tax situation in Texas vs LA. (It’s now 8:57, and Jon Heyman is reporting that the deal is official pending a physical).

The more interesting story from Heyman is that he believes that the Dodgers may still try to sign Anibal Sanchez. First off, if that happens, the Dodgers have assumed the “soul” of the Yankees by spending a crazy amount of money to build a new team and win a championship. Second, even without Sanchez, but more so with him, this will have a huge impact in the market for Dickey.

The best situation for the Mets was to have the Dodgers sign Greinke since the Dodgers didn’t have much in terms of prospects that interested the Mets. If the Dodger also sign Sanchez, this will put pressure on the Rangers and Royals to make a move for starting pitching. The Mets are impressed with Myers (Royals organization, and honestly, who wouldn’t be impressed), and there were reports during the Winter Meetings that the Mets were interested the Rangers farm system. The Mets now have two pitchers that are much more appealing now. The only roadblock for the Mets in getting the best package now will be Lester and Shields.

At the start of the Winter Meetings, it seemed like Lester could be a major roadblock in the Mets dominating the trade market. However, with the Sox giving both Napoli and Victorino 3 years, 39 million, they are now in the market for a starting pitcher, and the Mets were linked to them in trade talks mid week as well.

As of right now, the only thing that is certain is we will hear a lot more trade rumors over the next week.

November 30th, Chan Ho Park retired from baseball after playing for almost every professional baseball team in the world, and at his press conference he had all of the uniforms lined up.

Now I’ve struggled to find a really good photo of this so this, this and this will have to do.

Really, I was looking for a picture that his Mets jersey up there, but alas I couldn’t find it.

Winter Meetings ended yesterday and the Mets made one gigantic splash! It was great! Did you hear about? It was really monumental!

The Mets selected Lobstein from the Rays in the Rule V draft, then immediately traded him to the Tigers for cash considerations.

Alright, sarcasm aside, that made sense, sorta. The Mets said that they wouldn’t draft anyone in the Rule V draft, but they knew the Tigers were really interested in this player, so for some “petty” cash, this wasn’t a bad move.

Outside from the Lobstein for cash trade, the only move the Mets made was finalizing the Wright contract, and the Mets terrible new alternate hat.

The rest of the week was a lot of talk. Are the Mets going to trade Dickey? How many teams want Dickey? Will we trade Niese? Hairston on a two-year deal? Prospects for JP? Sign Olivo? The space below is my attempt to put together the rumors said on Twitter the most:

• The Mets pushed hard for a trade with the Royals for Myers. In the end, the Myers wanted Niese AND Wheeler. Which is a no deal.
• The Mets talked to at least 8 teams for Dickey. There have been reports that they have legitimate trade offers on the table but didn’t take it for one reason or another
• Hairston and the Mets seem hopeful for a reunion, but the Mets wisely are hesitant about a two year deal
• The extension of Dickey with the Mets seems to be over money, Executives think the Mets are leaning towards extending him

So in the end, we don’t know a lot this week that we didn’t know before but on the whole this isn’t the Mets fault. With the exception of some rash signings by the Angels and Red Sox, this has been a quiet Winter Meetings as executives are waiting for Grienke and Hamilton to sign, which has put a hold on crazy trade activity.

The surprise of the Winter Meetings for me has been the Red Sox. Mainly, this is not the direction I thought they would go.

In the middle of last season, the Red Sox were able to dump all of their bad contracts with the exception of Lackey to the Dodgers. This gave Boston back financial freedom for this year to sign some hitters and maybe a pitcher. Instead the Dodgers have done this:

– Signed Ross (the Catcher, not the OF)
– Signed Napoli to a 3 year, 39 million deal
– Signed Victorino to a 3 year, 39 million deal

Ross is on this list because in the whole picture, he doesn’t make sense. If the Red Sox were going to go hard for Napoli, and they already had Salty, why would they sign another catcher? When they signed Ross, Salty looked expendable, now it looks like they will have to deal Salty because the roster is redundant. 39 million is also a lot of money for Napoli, it’s another bad contract. The contract’s redeeming quality comes from a “there are not a lot of catchers on the market, so we need to overpay the best hitting one” perspective. Generally the philosophy that gets teams in trouble.

I haven’t watched Victorino in the last three years and thought, “you know, that ballplayer deserves 39 million”. Earlier in his career he was fantastic but lately his numbers have been sliding off. He’ll probably benefit from playing in Fenway but I can’t help to feel like that money could have been better invested. Ellsbury is 28, why didn’t they try to extend him? Coming off of an injury, Ellsbury’s value is at the lowest it has been in a while, this is a good time to push for an extension (unless Ellsbury wants to try the market next off season, which will be a good move for him).

If I was a Red Sox fan, I would be frustrated, Napoli and Victorino seem like signings made to just make signings. It is difficult to gain perspective since we are still deep in the Winter, but I wonder if the over paying of players right now is due to an overall weak free agent market. Whatever the case is, this type of financial burden is not good for the team as a whole going forward.

Buster Olney reported earlier tonight that MLB Executives wonder if the Red Sox signing Shane Victorino is clearing a way to move Ellsbury for starting pitching.

The Mets and the Red Sox have been linked over starting pitching, and originally the Mets were demanding the top two prospects in the Red Sox system for Dickey. However a 28 year-old Ellsbury would make for an interesting piece of trade conversation between the Mets and the Red Sox as both teams would receive what they desperately need.

Let’s say the Red Sox in turn try to flip Ellsbury to another team trading a starting pitcher. This could raise the overall market value of Dickey/Niese so that a certain highly touted prospect from Kansas City enters the conservation again.

As of right now (9:23 Tuesday Evening, ET) there is nothing to suggest that the Mets and the Red Sox discussed Ellsbury, but it’s a tantalizing thought.

EDIT: I did not realize that Ellsbury is a free agent after 2013. That makes his value to the Mets decline immediately since the goal of this off season is to boost 2014, 2015

Yesterday’s Winter Meeting action can be placed in two categories: things that happened and incredible amount of rumors swirling about things that might happen. I guess that’s not different than any Winter Meetings. Sources are via MLB Trade Rumors and Twitter Links from Baseball Personalities.

Things That Happened:

– Rangers Signed Soria to a two-year deal
– Giants Signed Pagan to a 4 year, 40 million dollar deal
– Red Sox Signed Napoli to a 3 year, 39 million dollar deal
– Rays Signed James Loney
– Padres Signed Jason Marquis
– Rangers Signed Soto for 3 million

The surprises in that group included:

– Napoli getting that much money
– Pagan getting that much money and that many years
– Soria electing for a two year deal to be a set up man. I would think he would go for a one year deal and try the market again as a closer next year

For the second group, things we heard a lot about but haven’t happened yet:

– Dodgers are in on 10-12 trade ideas right now
– 8 Teams are interested in R.A. Dickey. Teams that
– Astros may move Bud Norris
– Indians may move Cabrera
– Marlins shopping Escobar. Nolasco next?
– Diamondbacks have had discussions about Upton and Kubel

It looks like the entire trade market is being bogged down by two players, which also isn’t surprising. Greinke is holding up the starting pitching trades. Teams that are interested in Dickey, like the Rangers and the Dodgers are also in on Greinke. Once Greinke signs, the trade market for pitchers will make more sense. If the demand for Bud Norris is low, I would expect the Mets to also wait until Sanchez signs. That way both big and small market teams will be desperate for starting pitching, and the Mets could get a larger return for Dickey or Niese.

Trading bats is being held up by mostly Hamilton but also partially by LaRoche. When the former signs, teams with money that will need a bat will either have to take a risk on the free agency market or make a trade. Since a lot of the bats this year are tied up in pitching trade talks (Upton, Myers), this could turn into a big game of chicken until both Hamilton and Greinke sign.

The Mets have not been public with their list of catching targets, so this is all speculative. When reports came out that Soto was non-tendered by the Rangers, there was some murmurs from Mets blogs, this one included, that Soto to the Mets would make a lot of sense. I still stand behind that.

Last night, MLBTR reported that Geovany Soto and the Rangers have agreed to a 1 year deal. The dollar amount is not known at this time.

Another non-tender option remains in Jesus Flores, and there are still trade targets the Mets could acquire. It’s difficult to think of what’s next, partially because its 5 AM and I’m not fully with it yet, but more so the comments made by Alderson yesterday points the Mets to the trade market.

One interesting item I took from the Alderson press conference was the suggestion that the Dickey situation wouldn’t be resolved this week. The Dickey/Niese trade situation is looking more and more tied to Grienke. The Mets first need to Grienke to sign, this will up the need for a pitcher via trade. However the Mets can’t wait too long though, the Red Sox could move Lester and the Rays could move Shields.

Let’s see what happens today!

The Mets finally lit the hot stove last week with the extension to David Wright, and now they head into Nashville with a lot to do, but a lot of different ways to do it.

There are three items that must be accomplished in Nashville, and they are all related to each other:

– Dickey’s future must be determined
– At least one OF’er must be acquired
– The Mets will decide whether to get a platoon for Thole, a replacement, via trade or Free Agency

The situation Dickey pulls at my heartstrings and my brain stem. In my heart, I want to see Dickey sign the 2-3 year extension with the Mets and finish out his career in the Orange and Blue. My brain recognizes that if the right deal presents itself, the Mets have to sell now. Reports have surfaced that if an extension isn’t signed this week, Dickey wants to sit at the table for negotiations. Reports have also surfaced that 6-7 teams have approached the Mets about trading Dickey.

Complicating signing and trading Dickey is Jon Niese. The Blue Jays are interested in Niese for J.P. Arencibia, but that wouldn’t be enough for the Mets, which is the correct stance. If the Mets decide to move Niese or Dickey, then they avoid having to pay for a C or OF, or have more money to devote to one.

If the Mets decide to keep Dickey and Niese, then they will need to sign a budget OF and C. In this case, the Mets will probably go after a non-tendered catcher from another team and see if they can get a mid tier OF.

Last year, the meetings started off with the Mets missing out on Jose Reyes, and ended with the Mets building their bullpen and OF in trades and Free Agency that brought Torres, Ramirez, Rauch and Francisco to Queens. All in all, not a good winter meetings for the Mets. With the Wright signing, this already looking to be a better winter. Let’s hope the Mets use their cards wisely.

If the Mets decide to keep Dickey and Niese, that would be fine, we can fix the lineup next off season when the budget frees up and hope for upsides this year. If the Mets trade Dickey or Niese, that would be fine, we can fix the rotation throughout the season as Wheeler and Harvey get more experience, and be ready the next offseason with a clearer picture. There are very little avenues right not to see the Mets as competitive in 2013, but there is some actual real hope for 2014 and 2015.