213 Miles From Shea

Buster Olney reported earlier tonight that MLB Executives wonder if the Red Sox signing Shane Victorino is clearing a way to move Ellsbury for starting pitching.

The Mets and the Red Sox have been linked over starting pitching, and originally the Mets were demanding the top two prospects in the Red Sox system for Dickey. However a 28 year-old Ellsbury would make for an interesting piece of trade conversation between the Mets and the Red Sox as both teams would receive what they desperately need.

Let’s say the Red Sox in turn try to flip Ellsbury to another team trading a starting pitcher. This could raise the overall market value of Dickey/Niese so that a certain highly touted prospect from Kansas City enters the conservation again.

As of right now (9:23 Tuesday Evening, ET) there is nothing to suggest that the Mets and the Red Sox discussed Ellsbury, but it’s a tantalizing thought.

EDIT: I did not realize that Ellsbury is a free agent after 2013. That makes his value to the Mets decline immediately since the goal of this off season is to boost 2014, 2015

Yesterday’s Winter Meeting action can be placed in two categories: things that happened and incredible amount of rumors swirling about things that might happen. I guess that’s not different than any Winter Meetings. Sources are via MLB Trade Rumors and Twitter Links from Baseball Personalities.

Things That Happened:

– Rangers Signed Soria to a two-year deal
– Giants Signed Pagan to a 4 year, 40 million dollar deal
– Red Sox Signed Napoli to a 3 year, 39 million dollar deal
– Rays Signed James Loney
– Padres Signed Jason Marquis
– Rangers Signed Soto for 3 million

The surprises in that group included:

– Napoli getting that much money
– Pagan getting that much money and that many years
– Soria electing for a two year deal to be a set up man. I would think he would go for a one year deal and try the market again as a closer next year

For the second group, things we heard a lot about but haven’t happened yet:

– Dodgers are in on 10-12 trade ideas right now
– 8 Teams are interested in R.A. Dickey. Teams that
– Astros may move Bud Norris
– Indians may move Cabrera
– Marlins shopping Escobar. Nolasco next?
– Diamondbacks have had discussions about Upton and Kubel

It looks like the entire trade market is being bogged down by two players, which also isn’t surprising. Greinke is holding up the starting pitching trades. Teams that are interested in Dickey, like the Rangers and the Dodgers are also in on Greinke. Once Greinke signs, the trade market for pitchers will make more sense. If the demand for Bud Norris is low, I would expect the Mets to also wait until Sanchez signs. That way both big and small market teams will be desperate for starting pitching, and the Mets could get a larger return for Dickey or Niese.

Trading bats is being held up by mostly Hamilton but also partially by LaRoche. When the former signs, teams with money that will need a bat will either have to take a risk on the free agency market or make a trade. Since a lot of the bats this year are tied up in pitching trade talks (Upton, Myers), this could turn into a big game of chicken until both Hamilton and Greinke sign.

The Mets have not been public with their list of catching targets, so this is all speculative. When reports came out that Soto was non-tendered by the Rangers, there was some murmurs from Mets blogs, this one included, that Soto to the Mets would make a lot of sense. I still stand behind that.

Last night, MLBTR reported that Geovany Soto and the Rangers have agreed to a 1 year deal. The dollar amount is not known at this time.

Another non-tender option remains in Jesus Flores, and there are still trade targets the Mets could acquire. It’s difficult to think of what’s next, partially because its 5 AM and I’m not fully with it yet, but more so the comments made by Alderson yesterday points the Mets to the trade market.

One interesting item I took from the Alderson press conference was the suggestion that the Dickey situation wouldn’t be resolved this week. The Dickey/Niese trade situation is looking more and more tied to Grienke. The Mets first need to Grienke to sign, this will up the need for a pitcher via trade. However the Mets can’t wait too long though, the Red Sox could move Lester and the Rays could move Shields.

Let’s see what happens today!

The Mets finally lit the hot stove last week with the extension to David Wright, and now they head into Nashville with a lot to do, but a lot of different ways to do it.

There are three items that must be accomplished in Nashville, and they are all related to each other:

– Dickey’s future must be determined
– At least one OF’er must be acquired
– The Mets will decide whether to get a platoon for Thole, a replacement, via trade or Free Agency

The situation Dickey pulls at my heartstrings and my brain stem. In my heart, I want to see Dickey sign the 2-3 year extension with the Mets and finish out his career in the Orange and Blue. My brain recognizes that if the right deal presents itself, the Mets have to sell now. Reports have surfaced that if an extension isn’t signed this week, Dickey wants to sit at the table for negotiations. Reports have also surfaced that 6-7 teams have approached the Mets about trading Dickey.

Complicating signing and trading Dickey is Jon Niese. The Blue Jays are interested in Niese for J.P. Arencibia, but that wouldn’t be enough for the Mets, which is the correct stance. If the Mets decide to move Niese or Dickey, then they avoid having to pay for a C or OF, or have more money to devote to one.

If the Mets decide to keep Dickey and Niese, then they will need to sign a budget OF and C. In this case, the Mets will probably go after a non-tendered catcher from another team and see if they can get a mid tier OF.

Last year, the meetings started off with the Mets missing out on Jose Reyes, and ended with the Mets building their bullpen and OF in trades and Free Agency that brought Torres, Ramirez, Rauch and Francisco to Queens. All in all, not a good winter meetings for the Mets. With the Wright signing, this already looking to be a better winter. Let’s hope the Mets use their cards wisely.

If the Mets decide to keep Dickey and Niese, that would be fine, we can fix the lineup next off season when the budget frees up and hope for upsides this year. If the Mets trade Dickey or Niese, that would be fine, we can fix the rotation throughout the season as Wheeler and Harvey get more experience, and be ready the next offseason with a clearer picture. There are very little avenues right not to see the Mets as competitive in 2013, but there is some actual real hope for 2014 and 2015.

When it comes to batters this season, just look at how the player comes up to bat. Are they left handed? Not really interested.

The Mets had major problems facing left handed starters last year as not only the “thump” in the lineup was weakened but our ability to smack hits around the field. Thole was impacted by this. When Thole is at his best, he is getting on base, not necessarily slugging, but just setting up the table for the other strong hitters (if they showed).

This is why the Mets should take a risk on Soto. Soto at his best in the past has had some serious pop for a catcher. At his worst, he’s still a lot better than Mike Nickeas. The past two years Soto has been on the decline but he had a solid three of four seasons between 2008 and 2011. His rookie of the year season was really the last season that he had the full slate of play time but that would work for the Mets. Thole isn’t terrible, and Thole would benefit from having another catcher on roster who was effective with the bat. It would take some of the pressure off of his bat, and probably off of management to play Thole where he would have little success.

I’m normally not a fan of signing someone just to be a platoon, but in this case, with Thole and the state of the Mets, a platoon here would work. And if Soto and can find himself from two years ago, then it could be a steal for the Mets.

Let’s sign Soto!

It has been easy to become a dyspeptic Mets fan the last few years. Injuries. Insipid performances from ownership promising change and not delivering. Some times, the talk of playing competitive ball, or just being a positive fan base sounds like prattle. The Jason Bay contract several years ago is now seen as a document that reeks of meretriciousness. Sometimes following this baseball team has made me feel like a curmudgeon, rather than the youthful, optimistic 23 year old that I should be.

However, the last 24 hours has been a nice, jocular change of pace. Jose Reyes was traded to Toronto, which pretty close to a polar opposite of Miami. In a nice rejoinder of all of the criticism of Mets BFBS alternate uniforms that have been with us through the years, the Mets displayed two new, beautiful color alternates that are filled with team history this morning.

But the icing on the cake, the big moment of the day, was hearing R.A. Dickey’s name announced as the Cy Young award winner. The pitcher whose knuckle ball has become iconoclastic in the small world of knuckleball throwers, breaking every rule about the pitch won the award today that he so deeply deserved. The Mets might not have had a winning record this season, but the Cy Young award has supplanted the dark feelings of being Mets fan.

And honestly that is what Dickey has done all along. He has forced out negative feelings about the Mets because he is so humble, talented, optimistic and realistic that it is impossible to not hope with him, to not achieve with him. His incredible demeanor sometimes feels like an idiosyncrasy when compared to today’s average public portrayal of an athlete, and that is why he is great. For example, Kershaw and Gonzalez both wore T-shirts in their pre-Cy Young interviews. Dickey (and David Price for that matter) knew to dress for the occasion.

R.A. Dickey’s story has been incredible and humbling to follow. He continues to be a source of inspiration for all of us, not just as fans of baseball, but as a source of hope for the human condition. Cheers R.A.

I’ve been pretty giddy since last night. Mid-November comes with serious baseball withdraw when all the news is about minor moves and the body is just starving for something big.

And then the Marlins happened.

The Marlins remind me of my High School Students in that they are extremely reactionary. I teach High School Physics and when I give my students a challenging problem, my students will struggle. That’s the entire point. I don’t expect my students to be able to do the problem right away, I expect them to use their science and math skills to fight through the struggle because that’s the ultimate goal of the class. A significant amount of my students will always push the problem away and announce because they don’t see success directly at this moment, Physics is not for them, its too hard, and I’m crazy.

While I don’t doubt the claims that I’m crazy, eventually the students will change on their first two statements. They struggle, they get through the tough parts, they grow, they succeed. They graduate.

The Marlins trade last night shows they handle stress like my High School students. They spent money, they didn’t see success. Their reaction was to blow it all up and start all over again. A lot of baseball writers, myself included, expected this move to happen eventually, just not like this. We expected in two seasons from now for the Marlins to strip their roster player by player as they got older so the team could get younger. It seems common, I don’t have numbers to back me up right now, but teams that go dramatic roster shifts with spending money don’t hit their peak in their first year. The 2005 Mets needed some extra work to be successful in 2006. The 2012 Angels didn’t perform as well as they should have on paper, but there’s a lot reason to believe they will be serious in 2013. The Heat were not the Heat we were expecting after they signed the Big Three, but the year after was different.

The Marlins displayed last night they have a patience problem.

Now it is possible they might have hit gold with the prospects last night, but there is also reason to believe they could have delayed a move like this one more season to try to see if they can make a run for the championship this year. Financial flexibility is extremely valuable, and it is what the Marlins got in this trade, but championships are the most valuable.

In a headline that seems fake, the Marlins trade Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, John Buck and Emilio Bonifacio for a set of players that seems to be changing every few minutes, so I’ll update that tomorrow.

After this summer’s salary dump between Los Angeles and Boston, I never thought we would see anything similar, but then this happened. Basically, if you were making money with the Marlins, you now play in Toronto. Or as my roommate eloquently put it, “How crazy would it be if you decided to play in Miami to be in Miami and then they told you suprise! You’re going to Toronto.”

Personally I’m excited about this trade because:

– Now the amount of times I have to type “Buehrle” is significantly decreased
– The Mets no longer have to face Josh Johnson
– I no longer feel guilty if I want to root for Reyes

On a serious note, this does change the landscape in baseball. Depending on what the Marlins get in return, this knocks their trajectory of success back to when the Mets should be successful (instead of the Mets rising while the Marlins age and are weighed down by costly contracts). Toronto becomes an instant contender. Jose Reyes is an upgrade and Josh Johnson, if healthy is an absolute steal. Plus if Buehrle doesn’t have to be ace or second ace of the staff, the team is completely rebuilt.

But honestly, this whole situation is hilarious.

Earlier this month Nickeas cleared waivers as he was removed from the 40 man roster. He was assigned to Triple A Las Vegas (which still is odd to type).

Yesterday, Mike Nickeas elected free agency, ending his current time with the Mets, not withstanding a reunion. Mike is 29 years old, and in three seasons over 172 AB’s he batted .180 with 12 runs, 31 hits, 4 doubles, 2 homers and 19 RBI’s. I was at the game this year when he hit his really improbable grand slam in the stomping of the Giants.

Even though Mike was only up with the Mets for three seasons, and really only two seasons (2010 he played only 5 games) it felt like Mike was with us longer. This year more than others, he seemed more important than he was in that his existence on the roster represented what was wrong with the Mets as a whole. Happy Trails Mike. You were a nice guy, just not the direction the team needed.

(Although, I have an odd feeling that he may be back, and I don’t know why)