In a surprising upset of Israel and South Africa, Spain made their way into the tournament and their Espana jerseys that look really nice too. They have a good looking typeface and color schemes. Take a look:
The strength of this kit is the consistent color and typeface through all uniforms and the hat.
This is the tough part for the Mets. Up to this point the PECOTA and MLB.com projections for the Mets offense next season have been positive. If the candidates for the Mets OF can cut a good percentage into last year’s production, then the Mets might have comparable numbers to last year.
First like yesterday, let’s roll a couple of players who are no longer with the Mets into one line to derive numbers. The numbers the Mets need to really pick up are from Hairston more so than Bay.
Hairston: .263 BA, 52, R, 25 2B, 20 HR, 8 SB
Bay: .165 BA, 21 R, 2 2B, 8 HR, 5 SB
Torres: .230 BA, 47 R, 17 2B, 3 HR, 13 SB
2012 Lost OF: 120 R, 71 2B, 31 HR, 26 SB
Because of all of the question marks with the Mets OF, we are going to do the next section different than the previous three. Usually we go through each player, look at their 2012 stats, their PECOTA projections for 2012 and 2013 followed by MLB.com. Since there are so many people who have played OF and can play OF, we are going to do this in sets. Here we are going to go through the 2012 stats of players who were with us last year. Then we will go over the PECOTA’s for next year and then MLB.com for next year. Finally we’ll total everything up and then add it to the running total. Also, I realized I skipped over Justin Turner earlier, so I’ll add him here.
2012 Stats of Current Mets
Turner: .269 BA, 20 R, 13 2B, 2 HR, 1 SB
Baxter: .263 BA, 26 R, 14 2B, 3 HR, 5 SB
Valdespin: .241 BA, 46 R, 9 2B, 8 HR, 10 SB
Kirk: .252 BA, 40 R, 12 2B, 7 HR, 4 SB
Duda: .239 BA, 43 R, 15 2B, 15 HR, 1 SB
2012 Remain OF: 175 R, 63 2B, 35 HR, 21 SB
2012 Total Mets OF: 295 R, 134 2B, 66 HR, 47 SB
Individual Avg Mets OF: 98 R, 45 2B, 22 HR, 16 SB
The above isn’t that bad for an OF last year that was all over the place, but it was in large part due to Hairston. Let’s do the same for 2013 Mets PECOTA projections.
2013 PECOTA Projections:
Duda: .251 BA, 48 R, 19 2B, 15 HR, 1 SB
Kirk: .235 BA, 39 R, 16 2B, 9 HR, 6 SB
Valdespin: .246 BA, 38 R, 12 2B, 8 HR, 17 SB
Baxter: .248 BA, 57 R, 21 2B, 10 HR, 10 SB
Turner: .259 BA, 29 R, 15 2B, 4 HR, 3 SB
Cowgill: .239 BA, 37 R, 15 2B, 7 HR, 9 SB
Byrd: .259 BA, 15 R, 8 2B, 3 HR, 1 SB
den Dekker: .230 BA, 35 R, 10 2B, 6 HR, 9 SB
2013 PECOTA Mets OF: 298 R, 116 2B, 66 HR, 56 SB
Individual Avg Mets OF: 99 R, 39 2B, 22 HR, 19 SB
2013 MLB.com Projections:
Duda: .257 BA, 50 R, 16 HR, 1 SB
Kirk: .258 BA, 53 R, 12 HR, 8 SB
Valdespin: .252 BA, 32 R, 6 HR, 13 SB
Baxter: .237 BA, 46 R, 5 HR, 9 SB
Turner: .263 BA, 18 R, 1 HR, 3 SB
Cowgill: NO PROJECTIONS
Byrd: .250 BA, 26 R, 5 HR, 3 SB
den Dekker: NO PROJECTIONS
2013 MLB.com Mets OF: 225 R, 45 HR, 37 SB
Individual Avg Mets OF: 75 R, 15 HR, 12 SB
The MLB.com projections are probably closer to what we would see for each OF for the Mets. PECOTA scaled back the AB’s for everyone but it still may be a bit high. However, these numbers, MLB.com and PECOTA are not as bad as I thought they would be. Let’s update our running score card:
2012: 131 HR, 606 R, 287 2B, 76 SB
2013 PECOTA: 152 HR, 639 R, 266 2B, 89 SB
2013 MLB.com: 125 HR, 578 R, 70 SB
Here’s the kicker. MLB.com projects the offense to be a little worse, PECOTA projects the offense to be a little better, where the difference looks to be due to the two projections not available for MLB.com. The offense numbers are not good, but they aren’t terrible. If anyone ends up playing better than the projection, then the Mets weakness won’t be a killer.
It looks like the offense will need the bullpen, and the bullpen looks to be much better this year than last year. This could be enough to give the Mets a chance to push towards .500. These numbers also suggest that if the Mets splurge next season on one or two OF’s, that could be enough to turn this team completely around.
Nicaragua is the last country we have to go over that didn’t make the March tourny. They were in the same round that favored Panama but was upset by Brazil.
Anyway, Nicaragua had away tops with blue print and a white outline, this was the best picture I could find, but it isn’t that good. Their hat is below:
I think the the typeface on the hat is quite nice.
Now we start the difficult part of the our preview journey. In the first two parts, all four players played a good deal of time last year with the Mets and project to start again this season. In this part, all three catchers we had last year are no longer with the team, so we need to go through the stats differently. First we will set up the “2012 Mets Catcher” to compare stats by taking the stats of Thole, Nickeas and Shoppach. Then we will look at MLB. and PECOTA for projections for d’Arnaud, Buck.
The 2012 Mets Catcher.
In 2012 the Mets had one catcher with pop, one catcher who would sometimes hit, and one catcher who was the butt of all jokes.
Thole: .234 BA, 1 HR, 15 2B, 24 R, 0 SB
Nickeas: .174 BA, 1 HR, 3 2B, 8 R, 0 SB
Shoppach: .203 BA, 3 HR, 2 2B, 7 R, 0 SB
2012 Total: 5 HR, 20 2B, 39 R, 0 SB
It wasn’t until I calculated those numbers above that I realized our catching situation last year was so bad.
Our first catcher this year will be John Buck who hit .192 last season with 12 homers, 15 doubles, 29 runs and 0 SB’s.
Last year PECOTA thought that Buck would hit .233 with 18 homers, 24 doubles, 62 runs and 1 stolen base.
This year PECOTA thinks that Buck will hit .225 with 9 homers, 11 doubles, with 27 runs and no stolen bases. MLB.com thinks Buck will hit .223 with 14 homers and 38 runs, also no stolen bases.
Our second catcher will hopefully see a lot of playing time this year, Travis d’Arnaud. PECOTA thinks d’Arnaud will hit .243 in his rookie season with 13 homers and 16 doubles while scoring 38 runs and not stealing any bases. MLB.com thinks d’Arnaud will hit .282 with 6 homers while stealing two bases and 33 runs. Interestingly huge difference between homers and batting average between the two projections.
Running Score Card:
Now we can look at the offense of the entire infield:
2012: 65 HR, 311 R, 153 2B, 29 SB
2013 PECOTA: 86 HR, 341 R, 150 2B, with 33 SB
2013 MLB.com: 80 HR, 353 R, 33 SB
Right now the numbers look like they are going up, this will probably change drastically after the OF.
There are only two teams left to cover who won’t be playing in the actual tournament that starts in March, and today we’ll look at Great Britain, who really didn’t stand a chance in the same round as Canada.
Great Britain had a nice gray uniform set with a nice size typeface. I think their jersey looked nice, the hook on the R is what makes the front of this jersey, other wise it would be too plain. The hat is nice too, shown below:
In Part 2 of our trip around the team we will dive into the right side of the infield. I realize that we are going through the strengths of the team, so of course things look better right now, and statistically things really do look better. Over the next few days we’ll be able to see if offensively if the 2013 Mets will be better than 2012 or at the very least, won’t be awful.
Last year Ike Davis hit .227, mainly due to that awful start, but recovered to hit 32 homers, 26 doubles while scoring 66 times and stealing no bases (nothing wrong with that).
Last year PECOTA said that he would hit .268 with 20 homers, 26 doubles, 73 runs and 2 stolen bases. PECOTA couldn’t predict Davis’ awful start with the batting average (thus runs as well) and had doubles right on the mark, but really missed the mark power.
This year PECOTA says that he will hit .249 with 26 homers and 27 doubles while scoring 74 times with 2 stolen bases. MLB.com has Davis hitting .269 with 66 runs and 29 homers and 1 stolen base.
Last year Daniel Murphy hit .291 with 40 doubles, 6 homers and 10 stolen bases while scoring 62 times and posting a WAR of 1.2.
Last year PECOTA said that he would hit .288 with 11 homers, 36 doubles, scoring 72 times while stealing 7 bases. PECOTA nearly got his average, overestimated his strong power, underestimated his inside the park power.
This year PECOTA says that he will hit .280 with 35 doubles and 11 homers while scoring 69 times and stealing 8 bases. MLB.com has Murphy hitting .296 with 65 runs, 7 homers and 8 stolen bases. I agree more with the power numbers on MLB.com, however I would like to believe the PECOTA numbers.
Running Scoreboard:
Taking Wright and Tejada with Davis and Murphy, here is our running scorecard so far:
2012: 60 homers, 272 runs, 133 doubles, 29 SB’s
2013 PECOTA: 64 homers, 292 runs, 123 doubles, 33 SB’s
2013 MLB: 60 homers, 282 runs, 31 SB’s
It’s been a while since we went over the WBC 2013 uniforms, and with the tournament right on the horizon, there isn’t much time to finish this article series. Also, apparently teams now have BP jerseys, so updates we’ll be coming soon as well.
Germany was one of the teams that was knocked out during the qualifier round last year. It was their first time playing in the tournament. Germany wore all white uniforms with their country name over the chest in flag colors. The only down side to their uniform was the print across the front was pretty small (then again Germany in German also takes up a lot of room). Below is a picture of their hat:
Maybe its because I spent the better part of the off season lowering my expectations, but the PECOTA spreadsheets came out recently and I’m not disappointed entirely with what they say for the Mets. In fact, some of what they say is a lot better than what I thought.
In addition, the pick up’s in the bullpen help the team’s weakest area (after the Outfield). I underestimated how much time this article would take to write, so every day this week we will take a look at a different area. Today it’s the left side of the infield.
Last year, David Wright hit .306 with 21 homers, 15 SB’s, and 41 2B’s.
The 2012 PECOTA stats had him hitting .290 with 20 homers, 19 SB’s and 34 2B’s. So PECOTA over estimated his speed last year, but underestimated his average and doubles. They pretty much nailed his power though. What about 2013?
In 2013 PECOTA stats have him hittimg .278 with 22 homers with 17 SB’s and 34 2B’s. PECOTA also has him scoring 85 times (he scored 91 times last year). MLB.com agrees with stealing 17 bases and hitting 22 homers but believes he is going to hit more consistently with a .296 batting average. So the good news is David Wright is projected to be David Wright again next year.
Last year, Ruben Tejada hit .289 while scoring 53 times, hitting 26 doubles, 1 homer, and stealing 4 bases.
The 2012 PECOTA stats had Tejada hitting .257 while scoring 56 times, hitting 23 doubles, 3 homers and 7 stolen bases. In quick review PECOTA really undersold his batting average but got the runs and doubles pretty close.
In 2013 PECOTA says that Tejada will hit .260 with 64 runs while hitting 27 doubles while hitting 5 homers and 6 stolen bases. PECOTA feels that Tejada had blip with the average but is still counting on a bit of a power burst. MLB.com is a bit nicer. They feel that Tejada will hit .280 with 66 runs, 5 stolen bases and 2 homers.
The Running Scorecard:
During every part of this series, the area below will be updated to compare the offenses of the 2012 Mets and the projections for 2013. So far, David Wright and Ruben Tejada:
2012 Total: 22 homers, 144 runs, 67 doubles, 19 SB’s
2013 PECOTA: 27 homers, 149 runs, 61 doubles, 23 SB’s
2013 MLB.com: 24 homers, 151 runs, 22 SB’s
Want to hear a joke?
THE METS OUTFIELD. HAHAAAA.
But seriously, if nothing happens with Bourn, or even if something happens with Bourn (this article is being written on the morning of 2/9), the outfield has a lot of problems. It’s worth it to go though all of the possible outfield candidates, no matter how far away, because the depth chart is so incredibly shallow.
Juan Lagares is 23 years old (will turn 24 during Spring Training) and is on the Mets 40 – Man. He’s played with the Mets since 2006 at age 17. During his time in the Mets system he is a career .280 hitter with 2,322 AB’s, 28 homers, 115 doubles, 40 triples and 98 stolen bases. Last year he had 499 AB’s while scoring 69 times, with 141 hits containing 29 doubles, 6 triples and 4 homers. He walked 37 times and stole 21 bases. All of this led to a .283 BA, .334 OBP and a .723 OPS.
I highly doubt Lagares will break camp with the team as things stand right now. But if Kirk doesn’t work out, JV1 isn’t used, and den Dekker doesn’t impress, I don’t see the harm in giving Lagares a shot. He’s on the 40 man and his stats look very similar to a lot of other triple A players we tried to push into the majors last year. He’s young and if anyone gets injured could see his way to Queens by the end of the year, especially if impresses in camp.
Brandon Hicks, who was purchased by the Mets from the Athletics earlier this off-season, will be trying for a utility position on the Mets roster outside of camp. He has a few things going for him and some critical items against him.
On the positive side he can play short stop and third base, which makes him valuable for a late inning defense replacement.
Through age 26, he has had 90 at bats in the majors with only 12 hits (.133 BA) while scoring 16 runs, hitting 5 doubles and three homers while walking 8 times. So the positive: when he hits, he hits for power, some nice pop on the bench. The negative: he doesn’t really hit, at all. He didn’t really hit in the minors either. In six years, he’s hit .241, however the power game has always been there in the minors. Last year, in only 90 games, he hit 18 homers. The year before, in 104 games, he hit 18 homers. In 2009 (128 games) and 2010 (77 games) he had a bit of a power outage hitting 10 homers and 7 homers respectively. The previous years he had 19 and 20 homers.
The potential for power off of the bench is seductive, however the lack of consistent hitting is something to be concerned about. Hicks is the type of player for this team that could be memorable or completely forgettable. He can join this team or not out of camp and I’m not sure I would personally care.
In short, Hicks is an interesting player. He fills a defensive need and has some mysterious power. He just doesn’t hit. If he did hit though, he wouldn’t be a utility player, so there’s that.