213 Miles From Shea

Yesterday we looked at the American League Promotions, today we’ll walk through the National League, starting with the Mets!

New York Mets: I’m disappointed with the magnetic schedule (actually I’m disappointed with the MLB that a magnetic schedule is a promotion) but it looks almost the same as last year’s! Come on SNY. However this Dog bandana is creative

Chicago Cubs: This will become a thing given away at many parks quickly

Pittsburgh Pirates: Flags!

St. Louis Cardinals: The Cardinals are having the best giveaways this month! Stan Musial harmonica, an awesome jersey, a double award statue and the 2006 replica ring (why, I’m not sure)

Los Angeles Dodgers: A sweatshirt, kids jersey, triple statue and interesting bobblehead

San Francisco Giants: That’s a lot of awards. Also a banner and globe!

Arizona Diamondbacks: Rivalry T-shirt and GNOME

It’s finally here! Opening Day 2013! (I know the Mets don’t play until tomorrow but technically OD is today for the league)

The best day of the season because everything is possible! The season is wide open for everyone and anything can happen.

Of course, it doesn’t feel that way. The Mets are in the toughest division in baseball and already have a ton of injuries on the roster. It would be really easy, albeit depressing, to just say, “Can 2013 be over yet? Can we start 2014?”

Long time readers of this site know that for the last two years, since I graduated college, I moved to Newark, NJ (completely ruining the name of the site) to become a high school teacher. One of my students this year is absolutely convince that the Mets will make the playoffs this year. He really thinks that the Mets are a good team (for basically all of the reasons listed below). While I want to call him crazy, I was the same way in high school and younger, even back in the 2003/2004 days before the wholesale changes to the Mets.

I know it’s a stretch, but the mantra I’m going to keep telling my self all season is remember the 2012 Athletics and Orioles.

The Mets, believe it or not, still have a lot of excitement for this upcoming season:

• Zack Wheeler Day!
• Travis d’Arnaud Day!
• Matt Harver and Jon Niese!
• Captian Wright!
• Ike Davis!
• Cowgill could surprise! Valdespin is Valdespin!

Look, there are some tangible events to look forward to this season. There’s a lot of player development and some real talent to look forward to in later seasons. The last couple of seasons I felt like I was lying to myself when to get excited about prospects because there wasn’t enough to truly change the course of the team. The Mets have a core group of young players that will be ready to make an impact over the next 3 seasons.

Logic tells me that the Mets will finish 4th. My heart tells me maybe if they are lucky, they might finish 3rd. I’m still excited the upcoming season, and I hope you are too…mainly I’m exciting for d’Arnaud because I don’t know how many B game rosters I can handle with Recker starting.

It’s the start of baseball season so lets step through the American League and see what interesting promotions teams are using to get fans into the ballpark:

Tampa Bay Rays: A Joe Madden….GNOME!

Detroit Tigers: Championship Banners are always a winner and a triple crown hat (and since it’s Detroit, giving it away at the end of April still works)

Chicago White Sox: This is what they are calling a “puzzle cube” even though we already know what it actually is. Perfect for those stressful moments during the game:

Oakland Athletics: Cool Looking Bobblehead

Los Angeles Angels: Another cool looking bobblehead

Seattle Mariners: THIS IS AWESOME.

Reader Participation! You fill in all of the details yourself and you get a full article!

As you have read by now, there is a recent (INSERT ISSUE HERE) happening with the Mets. One (PLAYER, EXECUTIVE, MANAGEMENT, REPORTER, FAMILY MEMBER) did (SOMETHING SORTA NORMAL BUT A LITTLE BIT EXTRA) to (ANOTHER PARTY).

Honestly this wasn’t a big deal! This (ISSUE) is just a normal (BASEBALL, LIFE, DIFFERENCE OF OPINIONS) thing. But now with the media attention things are just (OVERBLOWN ADJECTIVE)

The media has now turned this into a huge issue, just another issue in a long list of issues with this ball club. It seems like every week that something unbelievable happens to ball club like (INSERT LIST OF LAST THREE THINGS THAT HAVE HAPPENED TO THIS TEAM THAT WERE TOTALLY OVERBLOWN).

This (EARLIER NAMED ISSUE) would never have happened if the Mets were a winning ball club. When a team has high expectations that are reachable, a lot of these problems never come up. Back in 2006 when these off field issues would occur, either no one would report them, or the issues would die instantly. This ridiculousness of (ISSUE) doesn’t even matter!

Just gotta win. Just gotta win.

I will now refer to this article whenever there is an off-field article with the Mets!

Last night a group of awesome Mets Bloggers drafted for the #NBFD Mets Fantasy Baseball League.

As you can imagine, with a group of Mets fans drafting in the same league, certain players would be more valued than others. So, when did the Mets get drafted? Let’s take a look! (Draft Positions next to the name):

• David Wright (14)
• Ike Davis (64)
• Matt Harvey (68)
• Jon Niese (130)
• Travis d’Arnaud (170)
• Bobby Parnell (173)
• Zack Wheeler (180)
• Daniel Murphy (188)
• Jordany Valdespin (197)
• Josh Edgin (212)
• Dillon Gee (216)
• Lucas Duda (217)
• Justin Turner (260)
• Shaun Marcum (275)
• Johan Santana (280)

And there you have it. You get a bunch of Mets Fans together and the Jordany Valdespin gets drafted in the middle rounds (totally blowing up my strategy in multiple leagues picking him up with a late pick)

Chris Young has opted out of his contract with the Washington Nationals and there is the possibility that Young could return to the Mets. Let’s take a look at the situation.

Washington Nationals Perspective:

According to this Washington Post article, Johnson will be sad to Young leave. Young was the depth behind the starting five for the Nationals being the first one to step in if anything goes wrong with that fantastic rotation. Young also likes the Nationals organization (how can you not from the player perspective). There is the possibility for another deal to be worked out.

New York Mets Perspective:

Young and his agents say that he has possibilities for a major league spot, but the only team that is actually linked to him is his former club, the New York Mets, who had an evaluator at his last game. The Mets are looking for a starting pitcher to step in for Santana before Wheeler comes in and with this morning’s news that Mejia is out for 6 weeks and that Marcum will be missing his next start, there is some starter panic in Mets land. Young looks more like a solution everyday.

What Will Happen?

Young had a very impressive Spring. He’s made 4 starts while pitching 16.0 innings and allowing only 4 ER. His last 9 innings have apparently been very impressive according to Johnson and the rest of the Nationals camp.

However, since we’re the home of Chris Young for the last two years, we know the full story. Young is a control pitcher will make quality starts for the ball club. His pitch count is low, so if he starts off rocky, or throws a lot of pitches, he’ll be out by the 5th inning, not making a quality start and will then put a strain on the bullpen. As a temporary hold over in the rotation, I’m for him, particularly because he’s better than some of the internal options the Mets have (Hefner).

We’ll see what happens. Young has two goals. He wants to make a major league roster (advantage Mets) but he wants to stay with the Nationals and work something out creatively (advantage Nationals).

Around this time every year, I wonder if I should go through this largely unscientific process of previewing each division and making predictions about who will make the playoffs, etc. I also realize each year that my desire to do this is completely correlated with where I think the Mets will end up. In years where the Mets look to do really well, I end up making 7 of these articles and spend a whole week going through each division and the playoffs. During years like this one, I end up putting everybody into one article as I just want the season to start already and for the Mets to prove me wrong.

That being said, lets step through each division and make predictions as to where teams will end up.

AL East:1. Baltimore Orioles
2. Toronto Blue Jays (1st Wild Card)
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. New York Yankees
5. Boston Red Sox

My gut is telling me this will be another big year for the Orioles. Their enemy this season will be the sophomore year of success playing mind games with the idea “can we repeat the performance”. Last year they pulled their talent together and they have a few more bats this year emerging to make a statement, the same can be said about their starting rotation, its emerging. The Blue Jays on paper, due to their age and experience project better stats than the Orioles this year but I’m always worried about what happens when a team plays with each other first season. The Rays will be the dark horse in this division. If Myers produces early and the rotation bounces back, they can easily take a Wild Card Spot or the division.

AL Central:
1. Detroit Tigers2. Cleveland Indians
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Minnesota Twins

The Tigers are healthier and stronger than last season, and that will be a problem for the entire division. Their rotation is as strong as any in the league and that lineup is formidable. I’m making the safe prediction that they will run away with the division. The Indians have an improved lineup, and may be the most improved team in the division, but they are not improved enough to dent the #1 spot. Here’s the kicker for the Central. The Indians, White Sox and Royals are close enough in talent (although they are a mixture of fading and rising) that no one out of the group will dominate the rest of the division. The only way someone else can arise from the division is to crush everyone else and rise to the Wild Card. If they perform as they stand, they will split the wins and no one advances.

AL West:
1. Los Angeles Angles
2. Oakland Athletics (2nd Wild Card)
3. Texas Rangers
4. Seattle Mariners
5. Houston Astros

This is the Angels time to shine. They return with the same talent they had the year before but now with Josh Hamilton and they are one year removed from the large make over and all of the stress that comes with it. The rest of the division is tricky. I expect the Athletics to get the Wild Card just from the shear amount of talent on this team not many people (especially in fantasy for their pitchers) are paying attention to. However I can easily see the Rangers or even Mariners rising up. Unlike the AL Central, I think someone in this division will be clear cut enough to take the second wild card. The Astros will get beat up on the entire season.

NL East:1. Washington Nationals
2. Atlanta Braves (1st Wild Card)
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. New York Mets
5. Miami Marlins

The top two teams in this division are easy to plan out. The Nationals are loaded with talent that is still emerging and will carry this division, the toughest in baseball, throughout the season. The Braves have an incredible outfield now in terms of hitting and their bullpen projects to be strong, so it safe to say they can take the Wild Card. Depending on how the other divisions do, it is possible to see someone else in this division taking the second wild card. I’m not buying into all of the hype around the Phillies yet. If Howard and Utley perform at a high level, then the Mets will have no chance out of the bottom 40%. But if the Phillies struggle at the plate, and Roy isn’t right in the head, and EVERYTHING goes right for the Mets, then maybe they can pull out of 4th place (more on that tomorrow).

NL Central:
1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Cincinnati Reds
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
5. Chicago Cubs

The NL Central will have a similar problem that the AL Central has. I feel right now the Reds have enough to take the second wild card  (I don’t feel strong enough to predict this though, so I’m giving it to another division) but it is also conceivable that the Brewers improve (especially with the Lohse signing) and the Pirates improve. This division no longer has the Astros to beat up on, so the wins will be split more evenly. The Cardinals have enough to win but the question remains if there are enough wins left to get the second wild card spot. The NL East will be tough to get wins from, luckily the same can’t be said about the NL West.

NL West:
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. San Francisco Giants (2nd Wild Card)
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
4. Colorado Rockies
5. San Diego Padres

The Dodgers have so much talent, they win this division. The Giants have enough talent and pedigree, I feel compelled right now to rank them second and with the wild card but it the Diamondbacks can easily upseat them for that second spot. These three teams, remind me a lot of the NL East, a much weaker NL East, and will beat up on the Rockies and Padres throughout the season to pad their win totals.

Playoffs
WC: Braves Over Giants
WC: Blue Jays Over Athletics

ALDS: Angels Over Orioles
ALDS: Tigers Over Blue Jays

NLDS: Nationals Over Cardinals
NLDS: Braves Over Dodgers

ALCS: Tigers Over Angels
NLCS: Nationals Over Braves

World Series: Nationals Over Tigers

And with that, I guarantee that none of the above will happen because I said it.

R.A. Dickey brought two personal catchers with him to Toronto in Josh Thole and Mike Nickeas and it has become apparent today that neither will be making the major league roster once the team breaks camp at the end of the week.

This is obviously more surprising for Josh Thole, who despite his poor hitting for the last couple of years, there was hope a few seasons ago that he could be an “alright” batter at the plate. The former Mets starting catcher is even on the 2013 Mets calendar.

Well not only did Thole have a poor year at the plate last year (and I mean poor, .234 BA, 16 extrabase hits including only one homer, 21 RBI’s) he has had a worse spring than Mike Nickeas. In this spring, Thole has hit .171 over 35 AB’s while Nickeas has hit .212 over 33 AB’s.

Thole, Nickeas and former Mets catcher Henry Blanco had a unique opportunity this Spring at Jays’ camp. JP Arenciba, the projected starting catcher, was playing for team USA meaning there would be a lot of time for all three catchers to prove themselves on the Jays’ depth chart. Thole had an inside track as he was essentially brought to the Jays to catch for Dickey, which isn’t a bad idea.

Henry Blanco was the only catcher who actually took this chance to heart and rose to the occasion (well that might be a bit harsh to say, but Blanco was the only player who at least rose to the occasion, I can’t speak as to the heart of Nickeas and Thole). He is hitting .320 in 25 AB’s this spring.

Thole has already been officially demoted to Triple A Buffalo so only Nickeas and Blanco are left in camp to contend for the last catching spot, but it is hard to see the Jays going with Nickeas and his track record of poor hitting over Blanco.

This has been a tough two weeks for Mets fans. In the last two weeks the health of Santana, Wright, Murphy, Turner and Marcum have all come into question. At least within the last two days we can hang our hats on the idea of Wright, Turner and Murphy progressing, there hasn’t been too much positive news on the other two. The office is saying treatments for Marcum are more preventive and that Santana is six weeks away from pitching, but it always seems like he is some amount of weeks from pitching.

With all of this, it is easy to find pessimism in watch should be the most optimistic time of year.

In the next week, let’s walk through the positives again and show hope for 2013. Let’s highlight the players that will provide excitement for this upcoming season.

While 40% of the rotation has been disappointing and filled with question marks this spring, Niese and Harvey have been quite the opposite.

Niese, recently named the opening day starter, has been dominate this spring. In 17.2 innings of work he’s allowed only 10 hits, and 3 runs while striking out 12 batters and walking 9. It is difficult to take spring numbers and translate them into major league numbers but it feels like Niese is ready turn a corner in his major league career. He already started this last season with his 3.40 ERA, which was a full run lower than his previous year and his first sub 4.10 ERA.

This is a big year for Niese for other reasons as well. If you look at the Mets at the end of the off-season, the best shot the Mets had at getting major prospects would be trading a starter. Niese was chosen to stay over the Cy-Young winner Dickey, so the Mets are saying with that move, “we are betting on you.” This, and probably next year as well, will be the last time that Niese is seen as the ace of this squad, and maybe even the number 2 starter. In one to two seasons, Wheeler and Harvey will propel to the top of the rotation. This is Niese’s time to shine.

Speaking of Harvey, he’s another reason to be optimistic for 2013. Havery was a real bright point for 2012 after Dickey. He had a terrific 2012 campaign with a 3-5 record posting a 2.73 ERA over 10 starts while pitching 59.1 innings striking out 70 batters. Just let that K/9 ratio sink in for a second.

You did? Good.

Harvey has had a successful Spring as well pitching 18.1 innings with a 2.95 ERA striking out 24 batters. Harvey, who had the spotlight last year, doesn’t have it this year and I often find myself forgetting that he is on this roster and that he can do big things right now, at the start of the season.

I’m not going to conclude at the end of this series that the Mets are going to dominate the NL East in 2013, but I hope at the end you realize, as much as I am while writing this, that all of the depressing events to occur with the Mets over the last two weeks can be out weighed by potential the Mets already have.

The Mets have a losing record in Spring again (womp womp) as they dropped a game to the Nationals at Space Coast by the score of 8-5.

On the pitching side, Harvey wasn’t terrible as he allowed 2 ER, 3 R over 4 innings of work. The breakdown came from Parnell, who had his first bad inning of the spring as he allowed 4 ER over an inning of work.

Nothing too much to note about the play of OF except for the following:
– Duda went 0-3 as it becomes increasingly obvious that no one has a sure shot in the OF
– Cowgill 1-4 with HR as he keeps asserting himself to the OF
– Byrd 2-4, RBI

Statistically from Spring, the top 3 OF the Mets have right now are Cowgill, Byrd and Valdespin. Way different than Baxter, Kirk and Duda.