213 Miles From Shea

It has been a good week for finding Mets players on the top prospect lists on MLB.com. They have had a player on the RHP List, the LHP List, the Catcher List, and First Base.

Today, it’s second base’s turn.

Right now the Mets have fan favorite, and my personal favorite, Daniel Murphy patrolling the bag, but it seems unlikely at the end of the year the Mets will give him a long term deal which is partially due to money (he was an All-Star last year and is pretty consistent) and also partially due to Dilson Herrera and Wilmer Flores. If the Mets find a shortstop, the two of them sort of back each other up in case one has an offense that doesn’t pan out. Dilson, Herrera, 20 year-old Columbian Second Basemen, was acquired as the player to be named later in the Buck and Byrd trade that also landed the Mets Vic Black.

On the MLB.com prospect ranking, Herrera is ranked 4th with an arrival of 2017 (even though he played in the majors last year). MLB.com gave him the following numbers: Hit 55, Power 40, Run 55, Arm 50, Field 55 and Overall 50. Last year he was the 8th best 2B prospect with the numbers: Hit 50, Power 45, Run 60, Arm 50, Field 55 and Overall 50.

His power potential (for 2B) is strong. Despite hitting only .220 last season in the majors he still had a slugging of .407. There are those who feel that he could be a potential all-star in a few seasons. Anything above “major league starter” would be a steal in the trade the Mets made, and I’m hoping he pans out.

The 28 year-old was signed as a free agent this off-season after being granted free agency from the Padres organization. Previously he spent time in the Rangers system and had 41 AB’s in the majors from 2012-13 with the Dodgers organization.

The outfielder joins a complicated depth chart for the Mets that features starters Lagares/Granderson/Cuddyer with Mayberry/den Dekker/Captain Kirk/Puello/Vaughn. For the Mets, Alex represents a player that can put onto the 40 in a hurry in an emergency if they don’t want to mess with options with some of their other OF players.

In the majors Castellanos batted .171 over his 41 AB’s with 4 extrabase hits, including 2 homers. Last year he hit .275 with a .351 OBP while recording 99 hits over 360 AB’s with 25 doubles, 5 triples and 8 homers.

Alex, more so than others, has a shot of moving up the Mets depth chart. He was able to hit in the minors last year, and we already know the Mets are tepid (for better or worse, I’m not sure) on using Puello. If they don’t want to add Vaughn to the 40 man to protect him, then Alex becomes a good choice. Also, my gut says they want to protect someone like den Dekker as well, meaning they don’t want him to come up if he isn’t going to get regular playing time (although they haven’t always treated him like this). If Kirk is already on the 25 man, then Alex may be the next one up in case of injury.

If anything, Castellanos is a nice addition to depth chart.

So far this week the Mets have had Noah Syndergaard on the RHP Prospect List, Steven Matz on the LHP List, and Kevin Plawecki on the Catcher List. Yesterday Dominic Smith was featured on the First Basemen List.

This is tremendous for the Mets organization, to have players appearing high on theses lists.

For Dominic Smith, it was a bit of a step back. On the 2015 list, he is considered the 4th best first base prospect. In 2014 he was 1st and in 2013 he was 5th. From 2014 to 2015 scouts have ranked his stats different:

2015: Hit 50, Power 50, Run 40, Arm 50, Field 60, Overall 50
2014: Hit 60, Power 55, Run 40, Arm 50, Field 60, Overall 55

Basically, his power didn’t show up as much as they thought in 2014, some of which could be attributed to him being in a pitcher park, and also his age. He is still growing into his frame, and he is young. I feel that people were a little too down on him after the 2014 season. Luckily with the crop of players we have coming off, the pressure is starting to come off of him (especially with Duda breaking out last year). I’m curious to see how Smith rebounds this upcoming season.

After Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz were recognized by MLB.com for being the #2 RHP Prospect and #8 LHP prospect in the country respectively, Kevin Plawecki was named the 6th best catching prospect in the minors yesterday. The only surprise here is at the end of 2014, Plawecki was the 4th best catcher on list.

MLB.com gives his hitting a 55, power a 45, run 35, arm 50, field 50 and an overall score of 55. His numbers are the same as last year, so his drop in position isn’t about him regressing but people around him improving. The scouts at MLB.com talk about right now he is hampered by the obvious, Travis d’Arnaud, the 2013 best catching prospect from MLB.com. They note how he can compete for the #1 job in the near future.

Now as a pragmatic fan, I don’t see a lot of ways that this can play out. Kevin has to have regular playing time. Like the scouts note, in the beginning he looked like a borderline starter, which is a good place to be as a catcher because backup catchers get significant playing time in a season compared to other positions. But if he is the real deal, or has the potential to be a starter, he needs to play the same amount as a regular catcher. With d’Arnaud’s surge the second half the year, barring an injury to either one (knock on wood but knowing d’Arnaud’s history…) Plawecki should be moved. A player with potential of hitting well at the catcher spot should be easy to move in a trade.

The Mets are in a good position when it comes to catchers, but they need to be wary of hurting them due to a log jam.

MLB.com is starting to roll out their top prospect lists by first releasing the top prospects by position. Yesterday they released their top 10 right handed pitchers and today they released their top 10 left handed pitchers.

Syndergaard being #2 on the RHP list wasn’t a surprise. MLB.com gives his fastball a 70, curveball a 60, changeup a 55, control a 60 and overall a 65. They also say all the normal things you hear about Noah, his frame, his delivery, the development of his pitches and control over the last couple of years. For those wondering who was #1, that ranking went to Lucas Giolito of the Nationals organization who is looking at his major league debut in 2016 (fastball 80, curveball 70, changeup 55, control 60, overall 65).

It was interesting seeing Steven Matz at #8 on the LHP list. I’m still used to Mets prospects being over-hyped within the system and with fans, and I’m not used to seeing our surprise prospects receiving National recognition, yet that is exactly what is happening to Matz. His fastball was given a 65, 50 for his curve, 60 for his changeup, 50 for his control with an overall score of 55. In their discussion of Matz, which you can read at the above link, they discuss his TJ surgery and his long path to where he is now from 2009 to 2012. The feel from their writing is that as he moves away from the surgery and injuries and continues to improve, the stigma of having that surgery starts to decrease. They also call him a potential frontline starter to join the Mets other young frontline starters. This builds off nicely from what we know about Matz from QBC15 where Wally Backman discussed how in his eyes Matz is the best pitching prospect in the Mets organization right now.

The Mets resigned Brandon Allen to a minor league deal with a Spring Training Invitation back in November, but who is he?

Brandon Allen, the 28 year-old first basement and corner outfielder, looks to work his way into a complicated depth chart for the Mets. Because of the amount of “4th OF” types the Mets currently have either at the major league level or minor league (although this has gotten better with the departure of Eric Young), he projects more to be in the depth chart for first base.

From 2009-2012 he had 344 ABs in the majors hitting .203 with .290 OBP and a .375 SLG hitting 12 homers over 70 hits.

This past year was the first year Allen was in th Mets system where he split time between St. Lucie and Las Vegas recording 337 AB’s. He hit .276 with a .385 OBP while slugging 13 homers over 93 hits. His batting average was the highest he recorded in the minors since 2011.

It is very unlikely in many scenarios that Allen becomes the key to the Mets 2015 season. He’s an interesting option to have down the depth charts and this spring maybe he makes things interesting for a player like Soup with competition for a bench spot. However, due to his age and prospects/young players in the system and on the Mets bench, we probably don’t see him unless the Mets need an injury replacement.

The Nationals are going to sign Max Scherzer making their rotation just bananas at this point. They were already the best rotation in the NL East in terms of both prior success, prime-age and pedigree, and now they are probably the best in baseball:

1. Max Scherzer
2. Stephen Strasburg
3. Jordan Zimmermann
4. Gio Gonzalez
5. Doug Fister

(For the record, I’m one of those people who thinks that Zimmermann will have a better season than Strasburg next year, and Fister will have a better season than Gonzalez, but that’s why I’m an amateur and not a professional).

That rotation is bananas. The argument could be made that any of those five could be the ace or near ace of other pitching staffs. If everyone stays healthy, this also gives the Nationals some interesting trade possibilities since Desmond, Zimmermann and Span are all free agents next year and it will be difficult to financially keep the squad together.

So the Nationals are ripe bananas. The pitching staff is good, in their prime and all together. They shape up on paper of being just amazing.

And the Mets are green bananas. They are so close to being ripe, and at least in terms of national press, the Nationals might be helpful here (because heaven forbid that the local NY press takes a day off). The Mets season is going to rest on the arms. Can everyone live up to their hype? Are they developed yet? What does a sophomore year of deGrom look like? What will Harvey be? Can Harvey be close to expectations? What will Syndergaard look like when he comes up? For 2016: is Matz the real deal?

The Mets rotation has a lot of talent, but they haven’t had everything on the field yet ready to go. Now I prefer my bananas green anyway, so I’m excited to watch them, but maybe by 2016, 2017 we have the ripe banana rotation in the National League.

At this point in the off-season, I’m so desperate for shortstop news that I will grasp at any straws within reach, so I’m grasping here. Earlier today it was rumored that the Rangers are close to moving Gallardo. Depending on who they get back for Gallardo, maybe they would be inclined to move another player, like Jean Segura.

First off, if Jean Segura is available, he’s going to be ultra-expensive. He’s arbitration eligible for the first time in 2016, and free agent in 2019. He’s coming off of a down year. In 2013, the All-Star slugged 12 homers, had a .294 BA with a .329 OBP in 588 AB. He slipped to a .246 BA and a .289 OBP last year. Despite the slip, I expect that if he is available his price will still be sky high because he was successful for a season at the major league level, he’s 24 and has a lot of years left before the market. Ultimately, it is a risky acquisition for the price.

Because of that, I’m not really sure here if I’m advocating for the Mets to get him.

Anyway, I would assume any deal to get Segura would be built around Syndergaard and Plawecki (just comparing it to similar deals that had players like Gattis, the price for young, controllable hitting is sky-high). The Brewers have Lucroy through 2016, so Plawecki would be a nice option to fall-back on.

For the Mets, with players like Desmond hitting the market next year, having Segura would still be an advantage. If they went after Desmond, they probably could flip Segura to another team and probably at a high price again.

Look, the chances of any of this happening is slim. The idea comes from the Brewers doing one trade and the cost to bring Segura in would be ridiculous thus I have no idea where I stand for this but I’m probably against it or for it if Segura plays like his 2013 self. Doesn’t matter though because this isn’t happening, but fun to think about.

As we head down the pipe to Pitchers and Catchers, Spring Training, Spring Training Games and the 2015 season, computers are rolling out 2015 projections on how every player will perform. Before getting a 2015 preview, at 213 Miles From Shea we wanted to see how the computers handled 2014.

Josh Edgin is going to be tricky. He was an under-utilized LOOGY who really could have been used in more situations. Coupled with Terry’s “management” of the bullpen, predicting performance by computer models is difficult.

2014 Projections:

ESPN: 65 G, 52.0 IP, 23 BB, 44 K, 1 SV, 4.15 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
Steamer: 55 G, 55.0 IP, 3.83 ERA, 3 SV
Oliver: 55 G, 57.0 IP, 3.95 ERA
PECOTA: 54 G, 57.7 IP, 23 BB, 56 K, 3.78 ERA, 1.27 WHIP

Average: 57.25 G, 55.4 IP, 23 BB, 50 K, 3.93 ERA, 1.29 WHIP

2014 Actual:
47 G, 27.1 IP, 6 BB, 28 K, 1.32 ERA, 0.915 WHIP

I’m not sure what to make of this comparison. He had an incredible season, especially compared to his projections. But, he ended up having a limited sample size as he was often one and done in games, shown by the exaggerated difference between games and innings pitched. Since he was also used in statistical advantages, his walks, ERA and WHIP look great (especially as he is coming into understanding how to use his talents). He looks to have an upper hand in getting into the pen since he is one of the few lefties.

As we head down the pipe to Pitchers and Catchers, Spring Training, Spring Training Games and the 2015 season, computers are rolling out 2015 projections on how every player will perform. Before getting a 2015 preview, at 213 Miles From Shea we wanted to see how the computers handled 2014.

The bullpen was a bit of mystery heading into 2014 with a lot of pitchers switching roles and new ones stepping up. At the start of the season it looked like Vic Black would be a critical piece, did the computers agree?

2014 Projections:

ESPN: 70 G, 66.0 IP, 32 BB, 68 K, 3.55 ERA, 1.36 WHIP
Steamer: 45 G, 45.0 IP, 3.50 ERA
Oliver: 50 G, 58.0 IP, 3.91 ERA
PECOTA: 54 G, 57.7 IP, 26 BB, 66 K, 3.31 ERA, 1.23 WHIP

Average: 54.75 G, 56.7 IP, 29 BB, 67 K, 3.44 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

2014 Actual:
41 G, 34.2 IP, 19 BB, 32 K, 2.60 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

Well it looks like the computers expected him to be used a lot more than he actual was. He was used in abou14 less games and 24 less innings, which is like a 40% drop. His walks then by comparison are up and his strikeouts are down. His WHIP though was exact and his ERA was amazing compared to his projected. This year, at least as of January 2nd when this article was written, there are less veterans in camp blocking Vic Black, but he won’t be seen as a setup man like he was at the start of the 2014 season, so I’m curious to see how the computers handle him.