213 Miles From Shea

The key for the 2015 Mets season will be David Wright. How much can he bounce back? Last year the captain put up the following numbers:

2014: 586 PA, 54 R, 30 2B, 1 3B, 8 HR, 63 RBI, 8 SB, .269 BA, .324 OBP

And the computers feel David Wright will do the following in 2015:

PECOTA (BP): 532 PA, 63 R, 27 2B, 2 3B, 15 HR, 63 RBI, 11 SB, .268 BA, .343 OBP
PECOTA (MLB.com): 535 AB, 73 R, 17 HR, 73 RBI, 13 SB, .267 BA, .342 OBP
MLB.com: 524 AB, 74 R, 19 HR, 80 RBI, 13 SB, .288 BA, .364 OBP
ZiPS: 558 PA, 498 AB, 67 R, 28 2B, 3 3B, 13 HR, 70 RBI, 11 SB, .275 BA, .346 OBP
Steamer: 574 PA, 511 AB, 65 R, 29 2B, 2 3B, 15 HR, 64 RBI, 9 SB, .274 BA, .345 OBP
ESPN: .273 BA, 63 R, 16 HR, 63 RBI, 11 SB

Average: 555 PA, 517 AB, 67.5 R, 28 2B, 2.3 3B, 15.8 HR, 68.8 RBI, 11.3 SB, .274 BA, .348 OBP

The only areas where the computers see Wright improving is his OBP (significant) and runs scored (also a significant amount). There is an improvement over homers to nearly 16, or twice the amount he hit last year, but that is still a drop off from the numbers you would hope to see from Wright. Also the RBI amounts are also down.

If the Mets are really going to make a run for it this year, Wright will need to hit closer to 20 homers, 80 RBI’s and .290. I don’t think that’s out of the question.

When I checked into the Mets game yesterday, it was 2-2 in the bottom of the 4th. When I checked in last night, the Mets won the game 11-9. None of this is really surprising because it’s a Spring Training game and huge innings are par for the course. Anyway, here are some notes worth noting:

• deGrom did much better than his line (2 ER over 3 IP) suggests. He struck out 5 of the first 6 batters he faced.
• Matz allowed only 1 ER over 3.0 innings. He continues to be the only LHP the Mets have (outside of Niese) actually performing well
• Dario Alvarez had the golden opportunity to impress yesterday with the messy LHP situation, and he allowed 4 ER, walked 3 batters and didn’t get anyone out. This was after the Mets scored 9 runs in an inning
• Granderson and Cuddyer got their first homers of the season.
• Lagares had three hits including a double
• Mayberry finally cooled off going 0-3
• Flores picked up another hit 1-4, Reynolds went 1-1
• Monell picked up another hit

Stocks On The Rise:

• Everyday Flores is picking up a hit, this is a good sign, no matter how pessimistic you want ot be
• Lagares is making the case to be a leadoff hitter if he can maintain an OBP higher than .320. This would require an increase of about 20 points from last year and a significant increase over what the computers think he can do
• Monell is making a strong case to be the back up catcher

Stocks On the Fall:

• Dario Alavrez: You had a great opportunity and didn’t take it.

Daniel Murphy was the Mets lone All-Star last year and probably by most metrics their most consistent hitter. He is also in a walk-year and right now it seems very unlikely that the Mets extend him by the end of the season or sign him to a new deal. Here are his All-Star numbers:

2014: 642 PA, 79 R, 37 2B, 2 3B, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 13 SB, .289 BA, .332 OBP

And his 2015 Projections:

PECOTA (BP): 614 PA, 70 R, 36 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 53 RBI, 14 SB, .279 BA, .318 OBP
PECOTA (MLB.com): 581 AB, 72 R, 9 HR, 54 RBI, 14 SB, .279 BA, .319 OBP
MLB.com: 595 AB, 82 R, 10 HR, 62 RBI, 15 SB, .291 BA, .331 OBP
ZiPS: 643 PA, 602 AB, 84 R, 35 2B, 3 3B, 10 HR, 70 RBI, 13 SB, .286 BA, .326 OBP
Steamer: 621 PA, 576 AB, 67 R, 34 2B, 2 3B, 9 HR, 55 RBI, 11 SB, .277 BA, .319 OBP
ESPN: .282 BA, 80 R, 10 HR, 61 RBI, 16 SB

Average: 626 PA, 589 AB, 76 R, 35 2B, 2.3 3B, 9.3 HR, 59 RBI, 13.8 SB, .282 BA, .323 OBP

Some of the models see a slight increase in numbers, almost all show a drop in the percentage stats like BA and OBP and they average out to a line that is basically the same as his last year. This makes sense because he’s at the point in his career where it would be rare for him to come out incredibly strong or incredibly weak. He’s been pretty consistent over the last couple of years and it would be wrong to think he would be anything else but more of the same from last year.

The question is over the next 4 years, he’ll be more of the same and then start to decline slowly while playing average defense at best. His offense is better than average at second and will be, at least in terms of consistent projections, for the next few years. Is he worth signing to a large deal? Is he more valuable to another team?

The Mets dropped another Spring Training Game yesterday (but that doesn’t really matter) as two of the key Mets pitchers got their second game of the pre-season under their belts.

• Harvey held the Marlins scoreless over the first two innings, allowed one in the next 2/3rds and then a runner charged to him scored in relief making his line 2.2, 2 ER, BB, 2 K
• Syndergaard held the Marlins scoreless over 2.2 innings and struck out 5 batters, which is awesome
• Scott Rice and the Mets had an inning to forget in the 7th. In 0.2 innings, he allowed 3 hits, 5 runs, 4 earned and two walks assisted by a few errors including an error by Matt Reynolds at short and one by Scott Rice, so the Mets LHP woes continue

Stocks on the Rise:

• Tejada finally had a big game going 2-3, R, 2 RBI and 2 2B
• Reynolds went 2-5
• Monell went 1-1, continues to hit
• Gee had a clean 1.1 innings of relief

Stocks on the Fall:

• Reynolds is still a major outsider right now and not breaking into the conversation yet of coming up north after camp, the error doesn’t help
• The Mets LHP situation

The second of the Mets two off season signings this winter was for a 4th OF with more pop, Mayberry, effectively ending any chance of Eric Young coming back. His time was split last year between the minors, the Phillies and Toronto and as BP pointed out, he was used more against RHP, which made no sense since his strength is against LHP:

2014 Phillies: 138 PA, 11 R, 7 2B, 6 HR, 21 RBI, .213 BA, .304 OBP
2014 Blue Jays: 30 PA, 4 R, 3 2B, HR, 2 RBI, .208 BA, .333 OBP

Let’s see what the computers think he’ll do for the Mets:

PECOTA (BP): 250 PA, 27 R, 12 2B, 7 HR, 27 RBI, .232 BA, .293 OBP
PECOTA (MLB.com): 201 AB, 23 R, 7 HR, 26 RBI, .229 BA, .290 OBP
MLB.com: 133 AB, 11 R, 4 HR, 12 RBI, .226 BA, .295 OBP
ZiPS: 333 PA, 302 AB, 38 R, 17 2B, 10 HR, 40 RBI, .228 BA, .294 OBP
Steamer: 217 PA, 196 AB, 20 R, 28 2B, 9 HR, 22 RBI, .224 BA, .289 OBP
ESPN: .227 BA, 14 R, 4 HR, 13 RBI

Average: 267 PA, 208 AB, 22 R, 19 2B, 6.8 HR, 23 RBI, .2276 BA, .292 OBP

The models are all over the place with how much playing time Mayberry will get. For the most part, I feel the average is an accurate representation, which are similar numbers to a Recker style player. What I’m worried about with these numbers is the amount of similar players the Mets may have on the field at once. For example if the Mets field a team with Mayberry and Granderson at the corner and Recker behind the plate, that is a really low BA day for the team, although not too different to the team the Mets fielded at times last year.

The Mets dropped the spring training game 3-2 to the Braves yesterday (does this cue another meeting from Fred Wilpon worrying about the direction of the team?), and there isn’t much to write about, but here are somethings that are worth noting:

• Colon pitched 3 innings allowing 3 ER. However his first two innings were scoreless, so take that as you will.
• While Kirk didn’t get any hits, he did pick up two walks as he continues to live the spring on the base paths
• Mayberry picked up another two hits
• Flores picked up a double in 3 ABs, Reynolds picked up a hit.
• Herrera finally picked up a hit
• In the need for an LHP to perform well, Dario Alvarez had a clean inning with a strikeout.

Stocks on the Rise:

• Mayberry continues to hit. He’s probably working himself into a position to be the first bat off the bench in games he doesn’t start, but I think he was already that before the spring started
• Dario Alvarez, not just by today’s performance but with other options looking slightly to more substantially questionable right now, just by virtue of him being a south paw his stock is on the rise

Stocks on the Fall:

• No one on the bubble had a particularly awful day compared to a player they are competing with.

Today let’s take a look at our amazing center fielder, Juan Lagares. It is difficult to remember that a year ago, the Mets brass still didn’t consider Lagares as a starter, despite his defense. There is talk in the league that his bat could take the next step this year making him a serious All-Star contender. Last year:

2014: 452 PA, 46 R, 24 2B, 3 3B, 4 HR, 47 RBI, 13 SB, .281 BA, .321 OBP

And the 2015 Projections:

PECOTA (BP): 433 PA, 46 R, 20 2B, 3 3B, 4 HR, 33 RBI, 10 SB, .253 BA, .292 OBP
PECOTA (MLB.com): 548 AB, 62 R, 6 HR, 45 RBI, 13 SB, .252 BA, .292 OBP
MLB.com: 520 AB, 70 R, 6 HR, 54 RBI, 2o SB, .271 BA, .311 OBP
ZiPS: 542 PA, 58 R, 25 2B, 5 3B, 6 HR, 55 RBI, 13 SB, .264 BA, .305 OBP
Steamer: 584 PA, 534 AB, 52 R, 27 2B, 3 3B, 8 HR, 49 RBI, 12 SB, .249 BA, .290 OBP
ESPN: .259 BA, 60 R, 6 HR, 51 RBI, 17 SB

Average: 519 PA, 534 AB, 58 R, 24 2B, 3.6 3B, 6 HR, 47.8 RBI, 14 SB, .258 BA, .298

Basically, the computers disagree with people. Where people around the team think Lagares is going to take the next step, the computer models think he is going to regress slightly closer to his average numbers. They expect his runs to increase, due to offense around him (not sure if that make senses) but a pretty large regression in BA and OBP. Let’s see what happens!

The Mets got trounced yesterday against the Marlins 13-2. Fred Wilpon had a meeting with Terry Collins for about 20 minutes after the game as reported by the beat writers to talk about a variety of topics including concerns about velocities, LHP options and walks.

Does Fred know its March 9th? I’m not exactly happy about losing 13-2 either, but we are still at the start of spring training games, when players are trying out new things and building back their arm strength. In two weeks, if pitchers velocities were still low and if they were still struggling to hit their marks, then I’d be more concern, but right now that seems overblown.

Now to be hypocritical, and break apart this game:

• Wheeler allowed 6 ER over 1.2 innings in Spring debut, although he was happy, saying he was trying some new things.
• Edgin allowed a run over 0.1 inning, his velocity was one a few people were concerned about
• Familia allowed a hit and struck out 2 over a scoreless inning
• Mejia allowed a run over an inning
• Gilmartin allowed 3 ER over 1.0 innings
• Black had a clean inning with a strikeout
• Cecchini 1-3, 2B, RBI
• den Dekker 2-2, 2 R
• Reynolds 1-2

Stock Rising:

• Reynolds is making the most of his early spring showing that he can be a SS option down the road if something happens to Flores or Tejada
• den Dekker has a tough battle against Kirk for the last OF spot on the bench. Kirk will most likely win out, but den Dekker is doing his best to make it not a run away

Stock Falling:

• No LHP yet (Edgin, Gilmartin, Leather Rocket) has stood out so far in the first week of games.

The Red Sox made an overnight trip to the East Coast of Florida, starting play with the Mets. This is excellent so we don’t have to see the Braves and Nationals 5,930 times in Spring. Here’s what you need to know:

• Lagares had 2 hit day also bringing in an RBI
• Granderson 1-3 with a double
• Cuddyer had an 0-3 day at the plate
• Kirk 3-4, 2 R, 2B. Dude is killing the ball this spring
• Flores had another 1-3 day with an RBI
• The Mets pitching staff walked 10 batters
• Niese allowed 2 ER over 2.2 innings with 3 hits and a walk
• Robles continued to struggle allowed 3 ER over 1.0 innings
• Mazzoni bounced backed with a scoreless inning
• Ynoa bounced back with a scoreless inning with a hit and a strikeout.

Stocks on the Rise:

• Flores is getting hits and didn’t record an error for a second straight day
• Kirk is seeing the ball so well this spring. He and Mayberry are making the most spring so far

Stocks Falling:

• The Mets pitching staff had 10 walks. Yeeeesh. Made for a long game but at least Cliff Floyd is entertaining
• Robles is really struggling in spring. So far he has an ERA over 22.50.

Even in a fake game, it feels good to beat the Braves, hopefully the Mets will make a habit of it this Spring. Here’s what you need to know from this game:

• Dilson Herrera had another 0-3 day at the plate.
• Mayberry went 1-1 with a R and 2 walks
• d’Arnaud went 0-4 and left 6 players on base
• Flores 1-3, 2 R, 2B
• Conforto 3-4, 3 RBI, 2B. All of the offense in the game tracks back to former first round pick
• deGrom pitched the longest of all Mets pitchers so far this spring, logging 3 innings allowing 2 hits and one earned run.
• Bowman had two scoreless allowing 2 hits and a walk
• Gilmartin allowed one hit in a scoreless inning

Stocks on the Rise:

• Mayberry continues to see the ball well in spring
• Flores showed some offense
• Conforto had a fantastic day at the plate. He’s not in the picture for this season but he’s going to rise.
• On a day where Leather Rocket had a tough performance across the state, Gilmartin had a good performance trying to be the second LHP

Stocks Falling:

• Dilson Herrera is not really competing for a starting job, but it would be nice to see him get some hits
• d’Arnaud is not going to lose his starting job in spring, but it would be nice for him to get some hits.