213 Miles From Shea

The only major move the Mets made this off-season* was signing Cuddyer, and that was fairly early on in the off-season. At the time it was deemed a controversial move because of how it early it was made. Turns out that OF moved a lot during the winter meetings, and since the Mets ended up doing nothing else, the move was made in a vacuum, which hurt the perception of the move some more. That being said, Cuddyer could still be a critical part of the Mets season and be that extra push. Let’s take a look at his 2014 Stats with the Rockies:

2014 Stats: 205 PA, 32 R, 15 2B, 1 3B, 10 HR, 31 RBI, .332 BA, .376 OBP

He had an injury shortened season last year, but it was his second straight year of hitting .331. While I’m pretty sure he won’t do that again, shades of that would be incredibly beneficial to the Mets offense. Let’s take a look at what the computers say is on tap for 2015:

PECOTA (BP): 265 PA, 29 R, 14 2B, 1 3B, 7 HR, 31 RBI, .260 BA, .320 OBP
PECOTA (MLB.com): 465 AB, 57 R, 14 HR, 60 RBI, .258 BA, .319 OBP
MLB.com: 412 AB, 60 R, 14 HR, 60 RBI, .279 BA, .340 OBP
ZiPS: 372 PA, 42 R, 21 2B, 2 3B, 12 HR, 44 RBI, .271 BA, .325 OBP
Steamer: 597 PA, 543 AB, 63 R, 28 2B, 2 3B, 18 HR, 69 RBI, .254 BA, .313. OBP
ESPN: 66 R, 19 HR, 67 RBI, .265 BA

Average: 411 PA, 473 AB, 52.8 R, 21 2B, 1.7 3B, 14 HR, 55.2 RBI, .265 BA, .323 OBP

It’s difficult to aggregate the data. The more complete models that run different stats have Cuddyer platooning a lot where the Mets right now see Cuddyer playing more often and taking time at first base. I’m not going to lie, 14 homers would be disappointment, especially if he takes away considerable time from Duda at firstbase. That being said, I would take the .265 BA from Cuddyer in a heart beat after how “prolific” our offense was last season.

*This article was written on 2/20, so there’s the possibility the Mets made some other major move, but I doubt it. 

There are two former players on the Baltimore Orioles who used to call Queens their home: Logan Verrett and Darren O’Day.

Logan Verrett was selected by the Orioles in the RuleV draft this year in the major league round. The O’s will have to hold on to him the entire season to keep him. His numbers were impressive but the Mets couldn’t protect him with the amount of players they needed to protect this year. Hopefully he has a good career with Baltimore and if they want to send him back, we’ll take him!

Darren O’Day has made a name for himself in Baltimore. The Mets got O’Day from the Angels in 2008 and the Rangers selected him off waivers in 2009. Then Baltimore came in 2011 to select him off waivers. He onl;y pitched 4 games with the Mets allowing 2 runs, none earned over 3.0 innings. The last three years in Bmore he has posted a 2.28, 2.18 and an 1.70 ERA.

This series of articles will take us across every organization in baseball and look for former Mets in the majors and minors to see how they are doing, leading up to a “Former Mets Team” to see how the current Mets stack up with pieces we have all over the place. I am still looking for Mets team members on the Rangers, White Sox and Tigers. If you know any, please let me know!

On this last day of the month we reach our last pitcher in the projection series, Zack Wheeler. Last year was Wheeler’s first full season in the majors and he had a lot on his plate thanks to Harvey being out all year. As important as a Harvey bounce back season is, and strong sophomore season from deGrom, Wheeler taking the next step forward is crucial for the Mets to have a shot in 2015.

2014 Stats: 11-11, 32 G, 185.1 IP, 187 K, 79 BB, 1.33 WHIP, 3.54 ERA

He had a good first year. Harvey and deGrom spoiled us with their excellent first years, so it becomes difficult to look at his above numbers, which are actually good, and not be a little disappointed. The above pretty much shows his weakness last year: walks. He nearly had a 2-1 K to BB ratio, which wouldn’t be so bad if he didn’t have nearly 80 BB. His strikeout #’s are great, but if they don’t get on base, they don’t score. Will those numbers improve in 2015? Hopefully. Let’s take a look:

PECOTA (BP): 9-10, 28 G, 155.2 IP, 149 K, 66 BB, 1.26 WHIP, 3.67 ERA
PECOTA (MLB.com): 9-10, 153.2 IP, 145 K, 65 BB, 1.27 WHIP, 3.75 ERA
MLB.com: 11-11, 190 IP, 190 K, 66 BB, 1.27 WHIP, 3.51 ERA
ZiPS: 31 G, 175.2 IP, 172 K, 67 BB, 3.48 ERA
Steamer: 9-10, 27 G, 153 IP, 150 K, 61 BB, 3.79 ERA
ESPN: 12-9, 188 K, 1.32 WHIP, 3.48 ERA

Average: 10-10, 28.7 G, 165.2 IP, 166 K, 65 BB, 1.28 WHIP, 3.61 ERA

So it looks like Wheeler will be more or less the same pitcher that he was last season. Usually after a pitchers first full year, the computers show a moderate regression, I would say moderate is too strong of a word when looking at these numbers, it looks like a slight regression. Also important to note, in the BP Annual, Wheeler has a 40% chance of performing significantly better than his projected like and a 65% chance of improving from last year.

While the Pirates have been the home of some notable Mets over the last few seasons due to trades (looking at you Ike Davis, John Buck and Byrd), for a while I was stumped trying to find a former Met who was in the Pittsburgh organization this year.

While writing the Twins article, I realized that Deolis Guerra was granted off-season at the end of the 2014 season and signed on with the Pirates! Really for the Twins, this ended a trade for Johan Santana where everyone has pretty much disappeared out of Minnesota from that trade. The star that ended up being traded to the Twins was Carlos Gomez, but they shipped him to the Brewers.

Anyway, Guerra started for playing with the Mets back in 2006 when he was only 17, and before the Mets traded him to Minnesota, he was putting up nice numbers at a young age. But that was pretty much it. he couldn’t really get it together but over the last several years he has been putting up passable stats at the upper levels of the minor leagues. Maybe this is the year he finally gets the call. He’s still youngish, as he’ll be 26 during the upcoming season.

This series of articles will take us across every organization in baseball and look for former Mets in the majors and minors to see how they are doing, leading up to a “Former Mets Team” to see how the current Mets stack up with pieces we have all over the place. I am still looking for Mets team members on the Rangers, White Sox and Tigers. If you know any, please let me know!

The Mets have a stacked rotation at the start of the year with Harvey, Wheeler, deGrom, Colon and Niese (and Gee in the bullpen). At some point this season, Syndergaard is expected to arrive. In case you need a primer, and I’m pretty sure you don’t, Syndergaard was acquired with d’Arnaud and Becerra for Dickey, Thole and Nickeas. Syndergaard has been in the Futures game for the last two seasons and looks to make that next step soon. Let’s see what the computers think he’ll do this year.

PECOTA (BP): 7-8, 25 G, 120.1 IP, 118 K, 36 BB, 1.20 WHIP, 3.50 ERA
PECOTA (MLB.com): 2-2, 26.2 IP, 26 K, 8 BB, 1.20 WHIP, 3.78 ERA
MLB.com: 4-3, 50 IP, 46 K, 16 BB, 1.28 WHIP, 3.42 ERA
ZiPS: 26 G, 134.1 IP, 142 K, 38 BB, 3.48 ERA
Steamer: 2-2, 7 G, 38.0 IP, 38 K, 12 BB, 3.61 ERA
ESPN: 1-2, 33 K, 1.47 WHIP, 4.80 ERA

Average: 3.2-3.4, 19.3 G, 73.2 IP, 67 K, 27.2 BB, 1.29 WHIP, 3.77 ERA

What I’m most surprised about here is the ESPN projection only because typically the ESPN projection tends to be the most bullish of the set. They are near the bottom for how much action Syndergaard will see in the majors and what he’ll be able to do. That’s why I’m also surprised about the PECOTA projections reported in the BP annual, they tend to be the most conservative, and usually correct, in the set and they see him having a major impact on the season.

Currently there are three players in the Minnesota system that spent time with the Amazins: Pelfrey, Boyer, and Peavey.

It feels like forever ago that Mike Pelfrey was the ace of this pitching staff, but that time existed. He was off to a great start in the 2012 season where he went down due to injury and was granted free agency at the end of the season. He then signed on with the Twins where he has attempted to reestablish himself. In 2013 he went 5-13 with a 5.19 ERA over 29 starts and last year he went 0-3 over 5 starts with a 7.99 ERA.

Blaine Boyer was drafted by the Braves in 200 and traded to the Cardinals in 2009. He then was selected off waivers by the Diamondbacks later that year and signed on with the Mets before the 2011 season. 2011 would be the last time he cracked the majors until 2014. With the Mets in 2011 he pitched in 5 games allowing 8 ER over 6.2 innings. After the Mets he signed on with the Pirates and then again with the Cardinals before signing on with the Royals in 2013. He then signed with the Padres, where he played in the majors and is now with the Twins.

Greg Peavey was one of the pitchers the Mets lost in the Rule V draft. He was a prospect for a while the Mets were looking at, but with the amount of arms the Mets have, it was impossible for them to protect Greg. Hopefully he gets a break with the Twins, if not, welcome back to the Mets!

This series of articles will take us across every organization in baseball and look for former Mets in the majors and minors to see how they are doing, leading up to a “Former Mets Team” to see how the current Mets stack up with pieces we have all over the place. I am still looking for Mets team members on the Rangers, White Sox and Tigers. If you know any, please let me know!

So far we have discussed projections for the other two-thirds of the Mets closers tandem in Familia and Mejia, today we’ll cover over the final piece, Bobby Parnell. He was positioned to have a critical season last year but after one game he needed to go under the knife leading the Mets to go through Valverde, Farnsworth before finally using Familia and Mejia. Parnell, who has recently started to throw off the mound, should be back somewhere between May and June. He expects to come back as the closer.

2013 Stats: 5-5, 22 SV, 49 G, 50 IP, 44 K, 12 BB, 1.00 WHIP, 2.16 ERA

Let’s see what the computers think Parnell will be able to do in 2015:

PECOTA (BP): 2-1, 15 SV, 40 G, 39.2 IP, 37 K, 11 BB, 1.14 WHIP, 2.97 ERA
PECOTA (MLB.com): 2-2, 3 SV, 40 IP, 38 K, 12 BB, 1.15 WHIP, 3.15 ERA
MLB.com: 2-2, 14 SV, 42 IP, 34 K, 14 BB, 1.29 WHIP, 3.49 ERA
ZiPS: 47 G, 44.2 IP, 37 K, 13 BB, 3.43 ERA
Steamer: 3-3, 10 SV, 65 G, 65 IP, 60 K, 21 BB, 3.37 ERA
ESPN: 2-3, 27 SV, 46 K, 1.10 WHIP, 2.52 ERA

Average: 2.2-2.2, 13.8 SV, 50.7 G, 46 IP, 42 K, 14.2 BB, 1.17 WHIP, 3.16 ERA

For the most part, the computers predict a large regression in terms of ERA, and a modest one in WHIP, which after TJ surgery, is quite fine. If Parnell ended up putting that average line up, with Mejia and Familia, I’d be stoked. It is also interesting to see which computers have Parnell coming back as the full time closer, which ones have him taking on a moderate to heavy size load, and which ones step it back a bit.

The Royals have two Mets currently in Jason Vargas and Francisco Pena.

Vargas was drafted by the Marlins in 2004 and was traded to the Mets in 2006 for Lindstrom and Owens. In 2008 he was part of the three team trade that sent him from the Mets to the Mariners. In 2012 he was traded to the Angels and in 2013 he signed as a free agent with the Royals. In 2007 he made two starts for the Mets allowing 14 earned runs over 10.1 innings. Last year was the best year of his career going 11-10 over 30 starts with a 3.71 ERA over 187.0 innings.

Francisco Pena signed with the Mets back in 2006 at the age of 16. For a long time he was supposed to be the Mets catcher of the future but as he started to grow into his frame, the power that was supposed to develop never came. In 2013 he ended up signing as a free agent with the Royals and last year made his major league debut, playing in a major league game but did not record a plate appearance.

This series of articles will take us across every organization in baseball and look for former Mets in the majors and minors to see how they are doing, leading up to a “Former Mets Team” to see how the current Mets stack up with pieces we have all over the place. I am still looking for Mets team members on the Pirates, Rangers, White Sox and Tigers. If you know any, please let me know!

Jon Niese is the veteran of the starting rotation in the sense that he’s been with the Mets the longest (Colon is really the veteran). The sinker pitcher was technically on the trading block over the last couple of off-seasons, but Blue Jays picked Dickey, and the Mets couldn’t move Gee this past season, let alone Niese. Anyway, this season, there is zero pressure on Niese to be the ace of the staff between Harvey, deGrom coming off of a rookie of the year season, Wheeler’s second full season and the eventual debut of Syndergaard. Here is Niese’s 2014 stat lines:

2014 Stats: 9-11, 30 G, 187.2 IP, 138 K, 45 BB, 1.27 WHIP, 3.40 ERA

And here’s what the computers think 2015 will bring:

PECOTA (BP): 8-10, 26 G, 155 IP, 128 K, 40 BB, 1.23 WHIP, 3.85 ERA
PECOTA (MLB.com): 10-11, 171.0 IP, 139 K, 43 BB, 1.23 WHIP, 3.89 ERA
MLB.com: 10-12, 183.0 IP, 132 K, 48 BB, 1.29 WHIP, 3.69 ERA
ZiPS: 28 G, 171.2 IP, 132 K, 46 BB, 3.77 ERA
Steamer: 9-11, 29 G, 173.0 IP, 125 K, 47 BB, 4.07 ERA
ESPN: 11-9, 140 K, 1.23 WHIP, 3.72 ERA

Average: 9.6-10.6, 27.7 G, 170.2 IP, 132.7 K, 44.8 BB, 1.25 WHIP, 3.83 ERA

It looks like the computers are projecting a slight regression in ERA and an improvement in WHIP. After reading BP’s comments, I wonder if this is due how computers look at how defense behind Niese is going to work, if they are worried about Tejada, Murphy and Duda handling the groundballs that Niese will produce.

Two former Mets are trying to make a home in Cleveland: Scott Atchison and Bruce Chen.

Scott Atchison pitched for the Mets at age 37 in 2013 where he recorded 45.1 innings of fairly solid relief. The following seasin he signed on with the Indians where he had an excellent year pitching in 70 games, logging 72 innings with a 2.75 ERA and a 6-0 record and a pair of saves. It was his best season in relief since 2012 with the Red Sox where he logged 51.1 innings with a 1.58 ERA. Glad he is doing well!

Brue Chen just signed a deal with the Indians recently, adding another team to the list for his career. In 1993 he signed with the Braves. 2000 he was traded to the Phillies. In 2001 he was traded to Mets. In 2002 he was traded to the Expos. Later that same year he was traded to the Reds before being released and signed by the Astros in 2003. He was then selected off waivers by the Red Sox and at the end of the 2003 season he was signed by the Blue Jays. In 2004 he was traded the Orioles where he actually stayed put for a few years. In 2007 he signed with the Rangers, in 2009 he signed with the Royals where he stayed until 2014. And that brings us today!

This series of articles will take us across every organization in baseball and look for former Mets in the majors and minors to see how they are doing, leading up to a “Former Mets Team” to see how the current Mets stack up with pieces we have all over the place. I am still looking for Mets team members on the Pirates, Rangers, White Sox and Tigers. If you know any, please let me know!