213 Miles From Shea

The Mets look to snap their losing streak tonight. The bats have gone mostly silent for the Mets over the last week who have lost four of their last five games and are in their first collective rut of the season. The Mets had chances Monday night, but went 1-for-8 with runners in scoring position leaving six runners on base. Further, the Mets hit into three double plays Monday night, which easily erased their eight hits and 11 walks. The Mets bats seem a bit out of sync and hopefully tonight they can click back into gear.

Clay Holmes has pitched 48 2/3 innings (nine starts) this season with a 3.14 ERA, 3.10 FIP, 1.253 WHIP and a 124 ERA+. Holmes is coming off of a start where he allowed four runs over six innings, in a game where the Mets couldn’t score any runs. He has a three game streak of pitching exactly six innings, which was the big knock on his game at the start of the season. The only new concern is that he allowed three homeruns across his last two starts after allowing no home runs in his previous seven starts. The Red Sox have the following career numbers against Holmes:

• Wilyer Abreu 1-2, 2B, BB
• Alex Bregman 2-5
• Rafael Devers 1-5, BB
• Jarren Duran 0-4, 2 K
• David Hamilton 0-3, K
• Caddanne Rafaela 0-3, BB
• Rob Refsnyder 0-2, K
• Trevor Story 0-5
• Abraham Toro 0-1, K
• Connor Wong 1-3, 2B, K

The Red Sox expect Walker Buehler to return from the injured list tonight. Before his right shoulder injury, Buehler made six starts totaling 33 2/3 innings with a 4.28 ERA, 4.29 FIP, 1.218 WHIP and a 98 ERA+. The last time he faced the Mets was in the NLCS where he shutout them out over four innings, limited the Mets to only three hits while striking out six. The Mets have the following career stats against him:

• Pete Alonso 5-16, 4 HR, 2 K
• Francisco Alvarez 0-2, 2 K
• Francisco Lindor 1-4, HR, K
• Starling Marte 2-7, 2 2B, BB, 2 K
• Jeff McNeil 1-9, BB, 2 K
• Brandon Nimmo 3-12, 3B, 2 BB, K
• Juan Soto 4-17, 2 BB, 3 K
• Tyrone Taylor 1-3, 2B, BB
• Luis Torrens 0-3, K
• Mark Vientos 1-2, K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Francisco Lindor. The Mets need their sparkplug back! Lindor has gone 1-for-22 at the plate in his last six games (.045/.154/.091) and the Mets as a team have won only two of those games. He is hitless in his last two games. Before this cold streak, Lindor went 11-for-23 over four games. Hopefully tonight is the start of another hot streak.
2. Bad Luck. Outside of a Soto single that would have been a home run at one other ball park, the batted balls for the Mets more or less fell as expected. Sunday night was another story for the Mets. The Mets hit five balls Sunday night that were outs with an expected batting average of .410 or better. This included a flyout from Pete Alonso that would have been a home run at three ball parks. These are the type of at bats that can prolong slumps, but also are the type of at bats that show the hitter is going to hit their way out of it.
3. Defense. Defense. Monday night was an adventure for Pete Alonso who had the yips early in the game and then made a terrific play later in the game. Part of Clay Holmes success this year has been ground balls. Batters are hitting grounders 52.9% of the time, good for the 85th percentile. The Mets fielding will need to be on point tonight for Holmes to have a successful night.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets are shipping up to Boston after a disappointing night in the Bronx. The Mets had the late Sunday night game and were in the game the whole night until the bottom of the 8th where the wheels fell off. We’ve seen this Mets team bounce back well from disappointing and weird losses – hopefully that happens again tonight!

The schedule doesn’t get easier for the Mets who start a road trip to the second place Red Sox before heading across the country to play the first place Dodgers. The Red Sox are actually two games below .500 right now after going 4-6 in their last 10 games. They are sixth in the league in runs scored but have also allowed the 8th most runs to score.

Kodai Senga draws another tough offense tonight. He is off to a brilliant start, pitching 44 1/3 innings with a 1.02 ERA, 2.84 FIP, 1.173 WHIP and a 382 ERA+. Over this last three starts he has allowed only two runs, one earned, over 15 2/3 innings (0.57 ERA, 2.83 FIP) while striking out 17 batters. This includes holding the high octane Arizona Diamondbacks offense to only one run over two starts. The Red Sox have the following career numbers against Senga:

• Rafael Devers 0-2
• Jarren Duran 1-2
• Conor Wong 1-1

The Mets bats will get a look at rookie Hunter Dobbins tonight, making his sixth career start. Over his first five games (27 2/3 innings) he has a 3.90 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 1.301 WHIP and a 107 ERA+. His starts in May have been a bit wild. He’s either fantastic (no runs over six innings against the Royals), or not (nine runs over 10 2/3 innings against the Twins and the Tigers).

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Mets top three hitters. The Mets lineup as a whole struggled on Sunday, getting only three hits. The top three hitters (Lindor, Soto, Alonso) went a combined 0-for-12 with four strikeouts and no walks. Highly unusual for this group! The Mets are going to need their hitters to step up tonight in another ballpark with funky dimensions.
2. Let last night roll off. In addition to not hitting Sunday night, the Mets struggled with fielding. Vientos had an unfortunate error early that led to a run scoring inning. Alonso had errant throw late that led to a huge inning for the Yankees. These things happen. The Mets are at their best when they can let their mistakes stay in past and not spiral into future games.
3. Potential big round number for Lindor. Francisco Lindor is sitting at 798 career RBI’s. A good night at the plate or a good series at the plate and he could be at 800 before the flight to LA! For context, Lindor is tied at 522 on the RBI career leader board and getting to 800 would move Lindor up to 516. He’ll be in the top 500 by the end of this season.

Let’s Go Mets!

Talk about poetry and drama in the Subway Series!

Friday night Juan Soto recorded the last out. Saturday afternoon Aaron Judge recorded the last out. With the series on the line the Yankees turn to Max Fried, the pitcher they turned to after Juan Soto turned down their massive contract. If you love stories in baseball, this has been the series for you!

David Peterson has pitched 44 1/3 innings over eight starts this year with a 3.05 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 1.353 WHIP and a 128 ERA+. He has allowed two earned runs or less in four consecutive starts and has pitched six innings in back-to-back starts. There have been two concerns of late though. First, he’s allowed seven walks in his last two starts. He walked only nine batters in the six starts before that. He’s also allowed a home run in each of his last two starts, after going five straight starts without allowing any home runs. The Yankees have the following career numbers against Peterson:

• Cody Bellinger 0-4, K
• Trent Grisham 1-4, K
• Aaron Judge 0-1, BB
• DJ LeMahieu 0-1, BB
• Anthony Volpe 1-3, 2 K

Max Fried is living up to his massive eight year, $218 million deal. Over 56 2/3 innings (nine starts), he has a 1.11 ERA (league leading), 2.85 FIP, 0.935 WHIP and a 356 ERA+ (league leading). From late April to early May he went three consecutive starts without allowing a run. The good news for the Mets is he has allowed runs in back-to-back starts (two runs in 12 innings, 13 strikeouts). Fried held the Mets scoreless and hitless over seven innings in his only start against them in 2024, but this was also during the Mets free falling month of May. The Mets have the following career numbers against Fried:

• Pete Alonso 10-36, 2B, 2 HR, 6 BB, 12 K
• Francisco Alvarez 1-4
• José Azócar 2-4
• Brett Baty 2-6, 3 K
• Francisco Lindor 3-28, HR, 6 K
• Starling Marte 4-21, 2 2B, BB, 5 K
• Jeff McNeil 10-31, 3 2B, BB, 6 K
• Brandon Nimmo 3-27, 2 2B, 5 BB, 11 K
• Juan Soto 9-27, 2B, 5 BB, 9 K
• Tyrone Taylor 2-7, 2 K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Pete Alonso. Pete Alonso, the best hitter on the Mets by OPS, is the key player for tonight’s game. Friday night he went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts. Saturday he went 2-for-4 with a double and an RBI. When he hits well the Mets win ball games because the people in front of him are getting on base. Alonso also has terrific career numbers against Fried who has been cruising through lineups this season.
2. Aaron Judge. Judge feasted on the Mets Friday, but Saturday was a different story. Judge went 0-for-5 at the plate with three strikeouts lowering in his batting average to .402 (which is insane to type out). The Mets just need to keep him contained for one more game.
3. Who is available in the Mets pen? The Mets needed to use three high leverage relievers yesterday (Garrett, Brazobán, and Díaz), all throwing between 17 and 23 pitches. All three pitchers had at least three days of rest before yesterday’s game, so they may having something in the tank for today. Ryne Stanek hasn’t pitched since Tuesday and it feels likely we’ll see him at some point tonight.

Let’s go Mets!

For the first time since 2023, the Yankees beat the Mets Friday night.

Tylor Megill had a poor outing, and Max Kranick behind him allowed the game to get out of reach. The Mets bats just couldn’t get runs in and a rally fell short in the ninth inning. Some of the same problems that have been plaguing the Mets all season appeared again, mainly hitting with runners in scoring position. The Mets went 2-for-11 Friday night and left nine batters on base. At the end of the day though, it’s only one game and the Mets have another shot this afternoon to get a win against their cross-town rivals.

Griffin Canning makes his ninth start of the season tonight. Over 42 innings he has a 2.36 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 1.262 WHIP and a 165 ERA+. In his last five starts he has allowed only four runs over 27 innings (1.33 ERA, 2.80 FIP) while striking out 29 batters. In his last two starts he has allowed only two runs, both on solo home runs, over 11 innings against the high powered Diamondbacks and Cubs offenses. The Yankees have the following career numbers against Canning:

• Cody Bellinger 2-6, K
• Paul Goldschmidt 2-7, HR, 2 BB, 3 K
• Trent Grisham 0-1, 2 BB, K
• Aaron Judge 2-5, HR, BB, K
• DJ LeMahieu 0-3, BB
• Oswald Peraza 1-1, 2 BB
• Pablo Reyes 0-2, BB, K
• Anthony Volpe 4-8, BB, 3 K
• Austin Wells 1-3, 2B, K

Over five starts (26 2/3 innings) Clark Schmidt has a 4.73 ERA, 5.01 FIP, 1.275 WHIP and an 86 ERA+. In only 16 starts in 2024, Schmidt had a 142 ERA+. The big difference this season has been his home run rate. He was allowing only 0.8 HR/9 in 2024, but this season that has ballooned to a career high of 1.7 HR/9. His last two starts have been solid, allowing a total of five runs over 12 innings, but also allowed two home runs. The Mets have the following career stats against him:

• Pete Alonso 1-4
• Brett Baty 1-2
• Francisco Lindor 1-2, HR, 2 BB
• Starling Marte 0-2, BB
• Jeff McNeil 2-4, 2B
• Brandon Nimmo 1-2
• Tyrone Taylor 0-1

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Juan Soto and Pete Alonso. The boos rained down on Soto Friday night. He went 0-for-2 with three walks and a stolen base. It’s a shame that he got on base three times last night and only scored once, which speaks to what was happening behind him in the lineup. Pete Alonso went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts, Mark Vientos went 1-for-4 with one strikeout. If the Yankees are able to keep getting Alonso out, they won’t feel a need to engage seriously with Soto.
2. José Castillo. The Mets acquired a lefty arm on Thursday and plan on activating him before today’s game. Over 6 1/3 innings this season for the Diamondbacks he allowed eight runs from 10 hits and three walks while striking out three. In Reno (AAA ball) he has allowed only one run from four hits over 5 1/3 innings. In limited major league time this season, Castillo has had a 52% ground ball rate, he’s just struggling to get hitters to swing and miss at his pitches.
3. Getting through the heart of the Yankees lineup. The Yankees second through fourth hitters went a combined 7-for-13 in Friday night’s game. The rest of their lineup went 1-for-18. The Yankees left just as many runners on base last night, just the lineup core was able to rack up runs early. The Mets just have to stop an Aaron Judge hitting .414 on May 17th. Easy right?

Let’s Go Mets!

There’s nothing like New York when both the Mets and the Yankees are playing well.

Tonight the first play New York Mets will travel to the Bronx to take on the first place New York Yankees. The city has been blessed with successful seasons from both clubs over the last few seasons. Several prominent Yankees came over to the Mets before the 2024 season (Carlos Mendoza, Luis Severino, Harrison Bader) adding to the the rivalry between the two teams.

Then Juan Soto, a key piece of the 2024 Yankees, signed a 15-year contract with the Mets. Tonight the Mets and Yankees will start a new chapter in their storied rivalry, fueled by a superstar who chose to play in Queens.

Tylor Megill has pitched 40 2/3 innings over eight starts with a 3.10 ERA, 2.97 FIP, 1.254 WHIP and a 126 ERA+. Megill has hit a rough patch, allowing 11 runs over his last three starts (6.19 ERA, 4.09 FIP). He’s still striking out players at a high rate, 22 batters over 16 innings, but he’s allowed three home runs. The spike in his home run rate is coming at a bad time for a start in Yankee Stadium. The Yankees have the following career numbers against Megill:

• Cody Bellinger 1-2, 2 BB, K
• Paul Goldschmidt 1-5, 2B
• Trent Grisham 0-2, BB
• Aaron Judge 0-3, K
• DJ LeMahieu 0-2, BB, K

Carlos Rodón is making his major league leading 10th start tonight. Over 54 2/3 innings he has a 3.29 ERA, 3.64 FIP, 0.970 WHIP and a 122 ERA+. Rodón is having a very Rodón season – he’s either brilliant or he’s not, with very few starts that are just average. He’s allowed four runs or more in four of ten starts this season, including his last one. He’s also allowed eight home runs so far this season, good for a 1.3 HR/9 rate which is actually his best HR/9 as a member of the Yankees. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Pete Alonso 1-5, 2 K
• Francisco Alvarez 1-2
• José Azócar 1-6
• Francisco Lindor 10-35, 3 2B, 2 HR, 4 BB, 4 K
• Starling Marte 1-5, K
• Jeff McNeil 0-2
• Brandon Nimmo 1-4, BB, 2 K
• Juan Soto 0-2, BB
• Tyrone Taylor 2-2, HR
• Luis Torrens 1-3, HR, 2 K
• Mark Vientos 1-3, K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Juan Soto. This is the Juan Soto series. How do Yankee fans react when Soto comes up in the top of the first? How does Soto react? Players often come in amped when facing their old squad. Soto is such a big star though that he will bring out that behavior in the Yankee players too.
2. Do the Mets take advantage of Yankee Stadium? The Mets are coming off of a 4-2 homestand where they didn’t have too much offense the last three days against the Pirates. A short Yankee Stadium porch can fix all power woes – will the Mets big sluggers tee off tonight against Rodón and crew?
3. Containing Trent Grisham. Grisham is having a breakout year in his seventh major league season. He is slashing .283/.367/.628 with a 177 OPS+, his first OPS+ above 100 since 2021. The big difference this season for Grisham is the power, he’s hit 12 home runs this season including four home runs over his last eight games.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets go for the series sweep tonight against the Pirates! It’s been a close series so far with the Mets winning first game 4-3 and the second game 2-1. The key to victory Tuesday night was getting out of jams. The Pirates had runners on the bases all night but ultimately went 0-for-13 with runners in scoring position leading 12 runners out there. The Mets pitchers were able to get big strikeouts and were even able to overcome a weird scenario with a ball going through a gap in Mark Vientos glove.

In addition to the Pirates, the Mets are also battling the weather tonight. It’s either been raining all day or there has been a chance of rain, and that continues throughout the night.

Clay Holmes has pitched 42 2/3 innings (eight starts) with a 2.74 ERA, 2.61 FIP, 1.242 WHIP and a 142 ERA+. He bounced back in his last start allowing one run over six innings from three hits and three walks. Over his last five starts (28 innings) he has a 1.93 ERA, 2.71 FIP. He’s also completed six innings in back-to-back starts, and three times in his last four starts. The Pirates have the following career numbers against him:

• Oneil Cruz 0-2, K
• Adam Frazier 0-3
• Ke’Bryan Hayes 0-1
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa 1-4, 2B, K
• Andrew McCutchen 1-2, HR, 2 BB
• Tommy Pham 2-7, BB, 3 K
• Bryan Reynolds 0-1

Bailey Falter has a 4.36 ERA, 4.44 FIP, 1.131 WHIP and a 98 ERA+ over 43 1/3 innings (eight starts) this season. He has been a much better pitcher in the month of May, allowing only one run over 13 innings from four hits and four walks while striking out nine batters. Falter made two starts against the Mets in 2024. He was effective in his first start holding to the Mets to two runs over five innings. In his second start the Mets scored three runs from five hits and two walks over two innings. The Mets have the following career stats against Falter:

• Pete Alonso 1-9, HR, BB, 2 K
• Francisco Alvarez 2-4
• Brett Baty 0-2
• Francisco Lindor 3-9, 4 BB, K
• Starling Marte 2-8, HR, 2 K
• Jeff McNeil 1-8, 2 K
• Brandon Nimmo 5-12, HR, BB, 4 K
• Juan Soto 3-9
• Tyrone Taylor 3-7, 2B, K
• Luis Torrens 1-3
• Mark Vientos 0-3, K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. The Brett Baty Homestand. Over the first five games of the Mets current homestand, Brett Baty has gone 6-for-13 at the plate with four home runs and only two strikeouts. He has seven RBI’s. Five of those RBI’s were the only runs the Mets scored in their 6-5 loss against the Cubs on Saturday. Tuesday night his late go-ahead home run was the difference and the reason why the Mets didn’t have to play the bottom of the ninth or extra innings. His hits have also come in bunches, in the three games he has hits, they’ve come in pairs. Before this homestand Baty only had two multi-hit games this season.
2. He’s walking here! Almost every day! Juan Soto added two more walks to his stat sheet Tuesday night, getting to 802 for his career. SNY announced he was the youngest player to reach the 800 mark. He also now has a chance to break the Mets single season record this season. He has 33 walks in 2025, which is good for third in the league. Extrapolated out to a whole season, it would be 124 walks. John Olerud set the Mets record with 125 walks in 1999. The least amount of walks Soto has had in his last four seasons was 129.
3. Mets are still a double hitting machine. The Mets didn’t have a ton of offense on Tuesday night, but one of their five hits was a Brandon Nimmo double. As a team the Mets have 77 doubles, good for fifth in the league. The 2024 Mets were sixth in the league with 279 doubles. The Mets offense is humming when they keep the line moving, and if they keep hitting doubles eventually the hitting with RISP woes will start to evaporate.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets look to take the series against the Pirates tonight behind Kodai Senga. Last night the Mets survived Paul Skenes due to a fantastic performance by David Peterson. Once both starters were out of the game, each team took turns tacking on runs with the Mets eventually taking the lead in the bottom of the ninth.

There is a chance that the Mets could lead the league in wins again by the end of day. Enter today’s slate of games the Mets, Tigers and Dodgers each have 27 wins.

Kodai Senga has been phenomenal so far in 2025. Over 38 2/3 innings (seven starts), Senga has a 1.16 ERA, 3.03 FIP, 1.164 WHIP and a 338 ERA+. His walk rate and hit rate are both similar to where he was his rookie season (6.8 vs 6.5 H/9, 4.2 vs 4.0 BB/9). The big difference for Senga so far this season has been his home run rate, going from 0.7 to 0.2. Over his last two starts he held the Diamondbacks to one run over 10 innings scattering seven hits and eight hits. He didn’t allow a home run to the Diamondbacks, both in Arizona and in Queens, despite the Diamondbacks being a top five home run hitting team this year. The Pirates have the following career numbers against Senga:

• Ji Hwan Bae 0-3
• Ke’Bryan Hayes 0-3, 2 K
• Andrew McCutchen 0-3, BB, K
• Tommy Pham 1-2, BB
• Bryan Reynolds 0-2, BB, K

Mitch Keller is having another solid, Mitch Keller – esque season in 2025 for the Pirates. Over 45 innings (eight starts) he has as a 4.40 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 1.400 WHIP and a 96 ERA+. Over his last four seasons his ERA+ has ranged from 96 to 104, consistently sitting right around league average. Over his last two starts he has allowed eight hits, seven earned, over 11 innings from 15 hits while striking out nine. Keller had a brilliant start against the Mets in 2024, holding them to two runs over eight hits. The Mets have the following career stats against Keller:

• Pete Alonso 0-9, K
• Francisco Alvarez 2-7, 2 K
• Brett Baty 0-2, BB
• Francisco Lindor 2-10, 5 BB, 3 K
• Starling Marte 0-2, K
• Jeff McNeil 2-12, HR, 2 K
• Brandon Nimmo 3-12, HR, 4 K
• Juan Soto 3-8, 2B, BB, K
• Tyrone Taylor 0-4, K
• Luis Torrens 0-3, K
• Mark Vientos 1-5, 2 K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Jeff McNeil. Is Jeff McNeil off to a strong start this season or is there something deeper going on? The last time that McNeil had an OPS above .800 and OPS+ above 100 was in 2022. Over 14 games this season he has an .846 OPS and 141 OPS+. In his last five games McNeil has gone 3-for-9 at the plate with a double, triple, home run and three walks (.333/.500/1.000). With Winker sidelined, there are at bats to go around for McNeil, Baty, Vientos and Acuña. We’ll know in about two weeks if this is a hot streak for McNeil, or if he’s back to his old self.
2. Speed. The Mets are slowly becoming a top 15 club in stolen bases. Tyrone Taylor stole the Mets 31st base last night, moving them to 17th in the league. For context, six stolen bases separates the Mets from 9th in the league. The Mets stolen base leader, Acuña, showed last night the other advantage of having wheels. Acuña was able to score from second base on a ball that took an awkward bounce in the infield and dribbled into the shallow outfield. It’s a different look for the Mets who haven’t really had raw speed like that in some time.
3. Génesis Cabrera. There’s a good chance we see Cabrera tonight. He pitched two innings against the Cardinals on May 4th, holding them to two hits and no runs. He then faced the Cubs on May 10th only needing six pitches to get two outs. The Mets were leaning on Minter when he was healthy. When he went down Young took on that work load. We haven’t really seen Cabrera and his 96-mph fastball and sinker take on that workload yet.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets took the series against the first place Cubs over the weekend and now welcome the last place Pirates to Citi Field. The Pirates fired their Manger Derek Shelton last Thursday as the team was free falling through the start of May. The team has rallied since then, winning two of their last three games against the Braves There only loss was a 3-2 extra inning game. The Pirates have the perfect scenario to keep the winning times going – Paul Skenes opens up the series in Queens. It’s one of the most exciting pitchers in baseball against one of the best pitching staffs in baseball!

David Peterson has tossed 38 1/3 innings over seven games with a 3.05 ERA, 3.43 FIP, 1.357 WHIP and a 130 ERA+. The Diamondbacks were able score four times off Peterson in his last start off of eight hits and four walks. Last season he allowed two runs from five hits and two walks over 4 1/3 innings in Pittsburgh. The Pirates have the following numbers against Peterson:

• Joey Bart 1-5, 2 BB, 2 K
• Oneil Cruz 1-3, HR, 2 K
• Henry Davis 0-2
• Ke’Bryan Hayes 1-4, BB, K
• Andrew McCutchen 1-14, HR, 4 BB, 5 K
• Liover Peguero 2-2, HR
• Tommy Pham 0-2, K
• Bryan Reynolds 2-7, 2 K
• Jared Triolo 0-1, BB, K

The Mets get the tough battle of the week out of the way in game one against Paul Skenes. Over 48 2/3 innings (eight starts), Skenes has a 2.77 ERA, 3.05 FIP, 0.945 WHIP and a 153 ERA+. He’s giving up hits, walks and home runs at almost the identical rates compared to his rookie season (0.947 WHIP vs 0.945). The big difference for Skenes this season has been the strikeout rate, dropping from 11.5 K/9 to 8.7 K/9. He’s looked pretty human in his last two starts allowing five runs from eight hits and eight walks over 11 innings (4.09 ERA, 7.39 FIP). Against the Mets last season he allowed two runs from four hits and two walks over seven innings while striking out eight. The Mets have the following career stats against Skenes:

• Pete Alonso 2-3, 2B, K
• Francisco Alvarez 0-2, K
• Francisco Lindor 0-3
• Jeff McNeil 1-3, HR
• Brandon Nimmo 0-2, BB, K
• Juan Soto 0-1, K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Mark Vientos. Is Mark Vientos heating up again? Over his last two games he has gone 4-for-8 with three runs scored and a home run. His home run on Sunday was his first extra base hit in the month of May. Vientos has quietly been building a high on-base percentage over the last eight games, getting on base at a .400 clip. If he gets his power back too the Pirates better watch out!
2. Francisco Lindor. How lucky are we that we get to watch Francisco Lindor day after day. In his last four games Lindor has gone 8-for-19 with two doubles, two home runs, three stolen bases (.444/.474/.889). Going 2-for-4 at the plate on Sunday flipped his batting average back above .300 for the first time since he went 4-for-25 to start off the month of May.
3. Expected Outcomes vs Actual Outcomes. David Peterson is having a great season for the Mets. His ERA and ERA+ are fantastic, both are the second lowest in his career. His FIP is the best of his career. The expected numbers don’t look great though. He’s in the 33rd percentile for xERA (4.49), 12th in xBA (.288), 11th in average exit velocity (91.5 mph). 19th for Whiff% (20.5%) and 4th for Hard-hit (52.2%). Despite all of this he’s getting positive results because hitters aren’t barreling the ball (79th percentile, 5.2% of the time). For context, this is about half the rate that the Cubs, one of the best barreling teams, barrel the ball. He’s also in the 92nd percentile in ground balls (58.3 %). Tonight is another battle in the expected vs actual outcome war.

Let’s Go Mets!

Heads up! MLB is doing that thing again where it’s more difficult to watch one Sunday baseball game and that game happens to be the Cubs vs Mets this week. Over the last several years MLB has played around with making one game from the Sunday slate earlier than others and making it a nationally distributed game on streaming services. This started with Peacock and the contract went to Roku last season. At least with Roku the game is free. You either need a Roku device, a device that can download the Roku Channel app or you can go do their website. Personally, I think it’s a bad idea to create extra steps between fans and baseball but MLB is going to do what MLB is going to do.

Anyway, this should be an exciting Mother’s Day match up this afternoon as the first place Cubs and the first place Mets face each other in a rubber game for the series. The Mets powered their way to a victory on Friday night smashing four home runs over four innings. The Mets got five RBI’s from Brett Baty Saturday night, but it wasn’t enough to over come the Cubs.

Griffin Canning has a 2.50 ERA, 3.39 FIP, 1.389 WHIP and a 159 ERA+ over seven starts and 36 innings this season. He’s been spectacular in his last four starts, allowing only three runs, scattering 20 hits and seven walks, over 21 innings while striking out 24 batters (1.29 ERA, 2.45 FIP). Canning had one start against the Cubs in 2024 and it was in Chicago where he allowed four runs from six hits over 4 1/3 innings. The Cubs have the following career numbers against him:

• Michael Busch 1-2, BB
• Ian Happ 1-1, BB
• Nico Hoerner 0-3
• Carson Kelly 0-6, K
• Nicky Lopez 2-11, 2 BB, K
• Seiya Suzuki 1-2, HR
• Dansby Swanson 0-2, K
• Kyle Tucker 4-15, 2 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
• Justin Turner 2-8, BB, 3 K

Matthew Boyd has found a home in Chicago. He’s having a career year in his 11th major league season. Over seven starts and 39 1/3 innings, he has a 2.75 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 1.347 WHIP and a 147 ERA+. He got off to a really strong start to the season, holding opponents scoreless over 11 innings. Since then he has had a 3.81 ERA, 4.21 FIP over 28 1/3 innings. Only four members of the Mets have seen Boyd in a Major League game before:

• Francisco Lindor 12-33, 3 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 3 K
• Starling Marte 1-7, BB, 2 K
• Juan Soto 1-4, HR, BB
• Tyrone Taylor 3-4, 2B, HR

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Brett Baty. Brett Baty has been on a tear this weekend going 4-for-8 at the plate with three home runs, six RBI’s and three runs scored. In his last four games he has gone 5-for-14 with four home runs and only three strikeouts, slashing .357/.357/1.214 (1.571 OPS). His season slugging has gone from .288 to .485. At the start of the season, the plan was to mainly use Baty against right-handed pitchers, but with how hot Baty has been recently, he deserves to play today.
2. Runners In Scoring Position. Saturday night the Cubs went 4-for-8 with runners in scoring position. The Mets went 1-for-10. Both teams struck out a lot in the game (Cubs 10 times, Mets 12 times) but ultimately for the Mets not coming through in clutch moments cost them the game.
3. Reed Garrett. There’s a strong chance we see Garrett this afternoon, since his outing last weekend against the Diamondbacks he has thrown literally two pitches, recording an out in Friday night’s game. Over 17 games and 15 2/3 innings, Garrett has a 0.57 ERA, 2.61 FIP, 1.021 WHIP and a 700 ERA+ (not a typo). He’s in the 77th percentile in Whiff% and 83rd in K%. The only warning lights right now is contact – hitters are making hard contact against him 48.7% of the time and barreling up 10.3% of the time (28th percentile).

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets homered early and often Friday night in their first clash against the Cubs. Lindor started things off for the Mets with a lead-off home run. In the second inning Brett Baty and Jeff McNeil homered. Juan Soto joined the home run party in the fourth inning. The Mets lineup has always had the power potential – they were sixth in the league for home runs in 2024 then added Juan Soto. It feels like now with the weather getting warmer something is starting to click.

A key to last night’s victory was limiting the damage that Cubs power bats could do. The Cubs have hit the 3rd most home runs in 2025 and both of their runs last night came off of solo shots. Let’s run back the same game plan tonight!

Tylor Megill has a 2.50 ERA, 2.83 FIP, 1.167 WHIP and a 159 ERA+ over 36 innings (seven starts). He’s looked a bit more human in his last two starts starts, allowing seven runs over 11 1/3 innings while striking out 15 batters. Those numbers include a start against the Nationals where he just stayed in the game too long. Megill is still striking out batters a career high clip (11.3 K/9, 9.3 career). He has allowed two home runs in his last two starts (one per start) which is something to keep an eye on with the Cubs in town. The Cubs have the following career numbers against him:

• Jon Berti 0-3
• Michael Busch 0-2, K
• Pete Crow-Armstrong 1-2, 3B, K
• Ian Happ 0-4, 2 K
• Nico Hoerner 1-4, BB, K
• Nicky Lopez 3-4, BB, K
• Seiya Suzuki 2-3, HR, BB, K
• Dansby Swanson 3-12, 2B, BB, 6 K
• Kyle Tucker 0-0, BB

Brad Keller is the opener for the Cubs today in a game that should feature the major league debut of one of the Cubs top prospects, Cade Horton. Keller has been an effective reliever for the Cubs this year, pitching 16 2/3 innings with a 3.78 ERA, 2.21 FIP, 1.260 WHIP and 109 ERA+. The hope for the Cubs is that Keller can pitch two innings, face the Mets big bats before passing the ball over to Horton.

The longest Keller has gone this season is first outing where he tossed 46 pitches over two innings. He has gone two innings as recently as May 3rd, keeping his outing to only 28 pitches. Keller made his debut in 2018 as a starter for the Royals and was made 20 starts are more between 2018-2020, so starting isn’t new for Keller. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• José Azócar 1-1, BB
• Francisco Lindor 5-17, BB, 3 K
• Starling Marte 1-4, K
• Juan Soto 4-6, 2 HR, 3 BB
• Tyrone Taylor 0-1

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Cade Horton. The Cubs are saying this is a bullpen game, but this feels like the Cade Horton game. Horton has thrown between 76 and 78 pitches in each of his last four outings. How deep does that get him in a major league game? Especially one where Cade Horton is probably not doing his normal routine to start a game. Horton is off to a hot start in the minor leagues with a 1.24 ERA over 29 innings. He has allowed 12 hits and 13 walks (0.862 WHIP) while striking out 33 batters.
2. Francisco Lindor. What a game for Lindor Friday night! He went 3-for-5 at the plate with a home run and a stolen base. He has had two home runs in his last four games. We are also now seeing an uptick in stolen bases. Lindor has now stolen three bags in his last five games, which is 60% of the stolen bases he has this season. We also know that the Mets have been a much better home team (14-3) than a road team (11-11). Guess who has been a better home hitter? At home Lindor is slashing .412/.447/.765 with seven of his eight home runs. On the road he’s hitting .207/.300/.287. The power of The Temptations!
3. Stolen Bases. Surprising no one, Luisangel Acuña is leading the team with 10 stolen bases, followed by Francisco Lindor (5) who has done most of his stealing in the last week. The Mets as team stole three bases Friday night, bringing their season total to 28, tied with the Dodgers at 18th in the league. This is right around where the Mets were last season, where they finished the season tied with the Pirates at 16th. The three stolen bases Friday night were all off of Kelly catching, but different pitchers. Is this a change in overall strategy for the Mets, a blip on the radar, or something specific to just the Cubs?

Let’s Go Mets!