213 Miles From Shea

While the Away squad lost yesterday, the Home Squad led by Bartolo picked up the win against the Tigers, who looked different wearing orange hats. The Tigers rolled out Pelfrey to start the game and the former Met struggled allowing 3 runs, 2 earned over 2.1 innings. For the Mets, the story was power! The Mets finally started hitting bombs in Spring (if you ignore the inside the park homer from Herrera last week) thanks to Walker to Duda.

The Not So Good:

Blevins had a rough inning where he allowed 1 ER over 1.0 innings while allowing two walks. Eric Campbell went 0-2 with 2 K’s. That’s really it.

The Good:

Outside of the homer, Duda added another hit going 2-3 on the day. Cabrera followed up his rough game with a 1-3 with 2 RBIs and Rosario went 1-1 in his debut. Bartolo only allowed 1 ER over 3.0 innings of work. Bastardo, Familia, Smoker and Carlyle all had a scoreless inning. I couldn’t watch the game, but the Mets Twitter Arm was up on Familia’s spring debut.

Changes in the Depth Chart:

No changes but after Bastardo and Familia, the bullpen is more ambiguous and pitchers can squeeze in there. If Smoker keeps this up, it is really difficult to imagine a scenario where he doesn’t get to Queens by the end of April.

The Mets played with a splitsquad yesterday so for those fans with an MLB.tv account and next to a cable TV, you could watch two Mets games! Anyway, the away squad visiting the Cardinals lost. Despite the score, the real story of the game was Matz’s first spring training start where he did quite well (more on that below).

The Not So Good:

Walters imploded today. He had an outside outside shot at MLB playing time this year, so this didn’t help. He allowed 5 runs, 4 earned over one out. Ashley made his second error in spring. Dilson Herrera had a rough game going 0-4 with 2 strikeouts.

The Good:

Matz allowed 1 ER over 3.0 innings while striking out 3, which was great (downside, two walks). Ynoa added to his strong start to spring going 1.2 innings allowing a walk and a hit. On the bat side, another Taijeron game with another hit, he’s hitting .417. Krauss had two hits, including a double, but is still quite far down the depth chart.

Depth Chart Changes:

No changes but Walters is still far down the list.

Travis d’Arnaud is tricky to project, and his 2015 season is a good example of why. In April, it looked like d’Arnaud was on pace for a breakout season. Then he got hit by a pitch, broke bones, and started a long road back. He still did quite well hitting 12 homers over 268 PAs and a .268 batting average (in the previous year he had 13 homers over 421 PAs and hit .242). Let’s take a look at what the computers think he’ll do in 2016:

This is about what was expected. The computers expect his average to drop back and his on base percentage. They still see him hitting for more power than he did in 2014, but a tick back than 2015 (which may be due to more ABs). The models are split on whether d’Arnaud will have a 50/50 platoon or one that approaches 75/25, and this is probably due to his injury history. I think the Mets would like the split to approach 75/25, but no one would be surprised if it approached 60/40 or less.

Notes:
Both ZiPS and PECOTA (BP) do not provide AB’s, so those are PA’s instead.
MLB.com and Steamer data can be found here.
ZiPS data can be found here.
ESPN data can be found here.
Baseball America data is from the 2016 Preview Fantasy Guide
Sporting News data is from the 2016 publication of Sporting News Fantasy Baseball
Rotowire data is from the Fantasy Baseball Guide 2016 published by Rotowire
MLB Yearbook data is from the 2016 Major League Baseball Yearbook
PECOTA (BP) data is from the Baseball Prospectus 2016 Annual

Today was the last game with the Mets starting rotation on the sidelines as the starters look to get their first spring innings in quite soon. The other way to look at that: Today was the last day we’ll see a lot of pitchers, with the exception of split squad games, try to wrestle up the depth chart. The score of 7-5 in favor the Mets is a bit deceptive. All of the pitchers had average to great days with the exception of one.

The Not So Good:

Both pitchers who allowed runs today end up on this side of the ledger. Bradford allowed 4 ER over 1.0 innings and the team just doesn’t have that many spots in the pen. Bradford was already on the outside track, this doesn’t help. Akeel Morris allowed 1 ER over 1.o innings and while this isn’t doom and gloom, he also was on the outside track for the pen at least for the start of the season. No body did terrible at the plate. Maybe Cabrera who went 0-3, but he’ll be fine.

The Good:

Sean Gilmartin allowed 4 hits and that’s it over 3.0 innings of work, striking out two. Pimentel allowed a walk and a hit over two innings while striking out one. Gilmartin is continuing to show that like Logan, he could be used as a swing man in the pen. Pimentel right now, in my opinion, has the inside track for non-roster invitees to get on the 40-man/make it to Queens (although unlikely). Henderson and Reed also had clean innings.

Taijeron had another two hit day today,and recorded 2 RBI’s. He’s now hitting .444 over the first week of games. Walker got his first hit as a Met (a double) and de Aza added a double of his own along with another hit.

Depth Chart Notes:

Bradford moves farther down for the bullpen while Pimentel moves up (but still unlikely right now to break camp with the team). Gilmartin comes out more as a possible swing option (or AAA starter). Taijeron is making himself known.

The Mets beat the Astros 3-1 yesterday and improved their meaningless spring record to 1-1-1 (hey, I feel like I’m covering the Red Bulls here!). Despite only putting up 3 runs, the Mets were able to rack up 12 hits yesterday and saw some good pitching from the staff. Beyond the score sheet, Ruben Tejada got some game time yesterday as he continues to recover from Chase Utley.

The Not So Good:

All of the pitchers had a solid game. None of the hitters had a notably bad game. Conforto and Ashley had fielding errors.

The Good:

The hitters had an all around good day. Smith had two hits and recorded a walk. Campbell also had two hits and a walk. One of the hits was a double (maybe he’s feeling a few other players trying to creep up on the last bench spot). Kelly and Plawecki each had doubles and Herrera recorded a triple. From the pitchers, Smoker was a clear standout as he allowed nothing over an inning while striking out 2. Bastardo and Thorton each allowed a walk over otherwise clean innings. Lugo pitched two and Robles was Robles. He recorded 4 outs, all strikeouts while walking two batters.

Changes to the Depth Chart:

Smoker turned some heads today.

Before trading for Cespedes, the Mets late summer push was going to rely on bringing up Conforto, who provided some pop. Conforto had a nice rookie campaign hitting 9 homers in under 200 PA’s and batting .270. His hitting continued in the post-season, including a World Series game where he smacked 2 homers. He looks to see the majority of playing time in the outfield this year, and to be part of a special Mets outfield in terms of hitting between himself, Cespedes and Granderson. Let’s take a look at what the models think he’ll do.

The models agree that he won’t see all the playing time out there, which makes sense, the Mets do have 5 outfield players and Conforto is the first choice to come out late in a game so Cespedes can slide over and Lagares can take over center. That being said, I reject the Baseball America notion that he’ll only 355 ABs. They all see Conforto continuing his power but they disagree about his average some going way below and some going way above what he did in his rookie campaign. In my opinion, I think the average of .266 sounds about right.

Notes:
Both ZiPS and PECOTA (BP) do not provide AB’s, so those are PA’s instead.
MLB.com and Steamer data can be found here.
ZiPS data can be found here.
ESPN data can be found here.
Baseball America data is from the 2016 Preview Fantasy Guide
Sporting News data is from the 2016 publication of Sporting News Fantasy Baseball
Rotowire data is from the Fantasy Baseball Guide 2016 published by Rotowire
MLB Yearbook data is from the 2016 Major League Baseball Yearbook
PECOTA (BP) data is from the Baseball Prospectus 2016 Annual

The Mets tied yesterday in the second game of Spring Training with the Miami Marlins. The highlight of the game was Dilson Herrera’s inside the park homer allowing all of us to remember why we wanted a second basemen signing this year of only one season. (Herrera also just turned 22 this week).

The Not So Good:

I feel funny putting Verrett here. He wasn’t not so good, but he also wasn’t good. It was just super average, which is usually not so good (man I stink at writing). He allowed 2 hits, and 2 runs, 1 earned in 2.0 innings of work while walking none and striking out none. One of those hits was a homer. Also one of my favorite Mets, Buddy Carlyle had a rough first outing in spring allowing 1 run over 3 hits in one inning while walking one and striking out 1. No one had a bad hitting day, but Monell’s 0-2 now means he’s 0-4 this spring.

The Good:

We already discussed Dilson Herrera. Taijeron went 1-2 with a triple, making it the second straight day that he had an extrabase hit. Walker, de Aza and Lagares also all notched their first spring training hits. Blevins allowed an unearned run and two hits, but it was good to just see him out there again. Morris, Reed, Below and Bradford all recorded scoreless innings.

Depth Chart Changes:

No. Not Yet. But Taijeron is at least making a name for himself early.

First off, sorry for the delay! I’m teaching three new classes (and one redesigned class) this school year, so my work ebbs and flows.

The Mets started off the year going to Washington, and eventually losing to Washington 9-4. The score doesn’t matter so much in Spring Training, especially for the first two weeks, but the individual performances do!

The Not So Good:

Montero had a tough inning on the mound allowing 4 earned runs. I wasn’t able to watch the game, but from I was able to gather it seemed whatever he was trying to work on in yesterday’s game, it was not working. Paul Sewald, from the Mets minor system, also had tough day on the mound. He’s quite far down the depth chart though, so this isn’t as big of a deal as Montero (which really isn’t a big deal since it’s the first start in Spring). Back up, back up catching signing Nevin Asley was only hitter to have two strikeouts on the day.

The Good:

Ynoa had an impressive outing one hit and striking out one over 3.0 innings. I don’t even remember the last time I heard of a pitcher pitching 3.0 innings in the first game of spring training. He’s a player that a good amount of people have been moderately up on for a while now. Non-Roster Invitee Pimentel notched a perfect inning with two strikeouts.

Hitting wise, Flores recorded a double in two AB’s and Conforto went 2-2 on the day. Plawecki, Taijeron, Kelly and Muno all had RBI’s (Taijeron was the only other player outside for Flores with an extra base hit).

Depth Chart Changes?

No. Not from this game.

The hero of last year signed a 1 to 3 year deal with the Mets this off-season, and all is right in the world. Really though, Cespedes and the Mets are made for each other. Cespedes needs the atmosphere that his teammates and this city can provide. We need Cespedes for his power. His bat completely changes the lineup in terms of protection, stretching power up and down the lineup, etc. The question is, what will he do next year:

This looks like a dip in his power from last year, but he also went on that incredible streak last year that statistically is difficult for him to repeat. That being said, 27-28 homers feels like a very fair assessment of what he can do. Going through the power data, it looks like ZiPS only has him at 30 because of how many AB’s they expect him to get (ZiPS is always on the higher side of PAs). Steamer seems to suggest a lot of pop as they are down lower in the ABs but still at 26 jacks.

For Cespedes, I would go with the mid to higher projections more than other players. With a player with Cespedes style profile, the projections are usually a bit conservative (this happens with players who hit more than 25 homers a year).

Notes:
Both ZiPS and PECOTA (BP) do not provide AB’s, so those are PA’s instead.
MLB.com and Steamer data can be found here.
ZiPS data can be found here.
ESPN data can be found here.
Baseball America data is from the 2016 Preview Fantasy Guide
Sporting News data is from the 2016 publication of Sporting News Fantasy Baseball
Rotowire data is from the Fantasy Baseball Guide 2016 published by Rotowire
MLB Yearbook data is from the 2016 Major League Baseball Yearbook
PECOTA (BP) data is from the Baseball Prospectus 2016 Annual

I unfairly imagine Astrubal Cabrera as a turkey sandwich. I want an italian sub, or maybe something with a spicy sauce and a more interesting meat, but I know the best thing for me is a turkey sandwich, way less sodium. Cabrera wasn’t a sexy signing. Without Cespedes, the Cabrera signing feels underwhelming but signing Cespedes takes the pressure off of needing a huge bat from shortstop, so here we are Cabrera. He has less power than Flores, hits for way more consistency, it just more consistent in general and a better defender. He is what we need at short: someone dependable and consistent.

Here’s what the different projection sources feel that Cabrera can do:

None of this is really surprising, and with the exception of a few outlets above, most projection sources feel Cabera is going to perform about the same with a bit of pop, real average, average and an average OBP.

I am a bit surprised at Steamer and MLB Yearbook in terms of at bats. Out of everyone who can play short, I feel Cabrera will be the closest to the AB’s of a fulltime player. With Wright playing about 130 games, Flores will get 30 games in there, which will decrease the amount of games where Wright and Flores plays on the left side than Wright and Cabrera.

Notes:
Both ZiPS and PECOTA (BP) do not provide AB’s, so those are PA’s instead.
MLB.com and Steamer data can be found here.
ZiPS data can be found here.
ESPN data can be found here.
Baseball America data is from the 2016 Preview Fantasy Guide
Sporting News data is from the 2016 publication of Sporting News Fantasy Baseball
Rotowire data is from the Fantasy Baseball Guide 2016 published by Rotowire
MLB Yearbook data is from the 2016 Major League Baseball Yearbook
PECOTA (BP) data is from the Baseball Prospectus 2016 Annual