213 Miles From Shea

The Mets finally got back on the winning path on Wednesday as they beat the Marlins 2-1 thanks to a Kevin Plawecki two-run single and a strong spot start by Logan Verrett. Fresh off an off-day traveling to Cleveland, the Mets will meet up with the Indians who had to travel from Tampa Bay back home last night. If you’re the type of person who likes seeing former Mets then get excited! You’ll probably see former Mets greats Collin Cowgill and Marlon Byrd this series.

Bartolo Colon is 0-1 for the Mets logging 7.1 innings over 2 games, 1 start this season with a 1.23 ERA. He has allowed 6 hits hits this year with no walks while striking out 8 batters, the only smudge this season being a solo homer to Ryan Howard which lead to the Mets losing a game because #SlowOffenseStart. Bartolo was signed by the Indians in 1993 and the last time he faced the Indians was back in 2013 as a member of the Oakland Athletics. He logged 4.0 innings of work allowing 8 hits and 6 ER, one of few bad starts of the year for Bart. The Indians have the following numbers against Bartolo:

• Byrd 6-14, 2 HR
• Juan Uribe 4-14, 3 2B
• R. Davis 3-11
• Napoli 3-11
• Kipnis 1-6, HR
• Santana 1-6, HR
• Gomes 1-5, 2B

The Mets bats will get a crack at Cody Anderson making his second start of the season in his second season of major league baseball. Last year Anderson went 7-3 over 15 games and 91.1 innings with a 3.05 ERA, walking 24 and striking out 44. He had a no decision in his first start of this year logging 6.0 innings, 2 ER while walking 2 and striking out 2. Knowing the above, it is not surprising that this will be first career start against the Mets however two Mets players have seen him while on other teams: Cabrera (1-6) and Walker (1-4, RBI).

Let’s Go Mets!

Logan Verrett gets the start for the Mets today over Jacob deGrom for two reasons. First, it was for deGrom’s lat. Then at the same time, deGrom’s wife went into labor and deGrom (rightfully so) went down to Florida, so here are the Mets with their first major test of 2016: What happens when they don’t have a starter but before Wheeler comes back to the majors? (Later this season, the answer easily becomes Colon), so the Mets turn to Logan Verrett.

Logan Verrett had a volatile beginning to 2015. He was drafted in the December 2014 Rule V draft by the Orioles. The Orioles later put him on waivers where he was claimed by the Rangers. The Rangers then finally returned him to the Mets. With the rangers he pitched 9.- innings allowing 7 runs, 6 earned. With the Mets he pitched in 14 games, 4 starts logging 38.2 innings with a 3.03 ERA while striking out 36 batters. He made a start against the Marlins last year where he held them to 1 ER over 5.0 innings while allowing 3 hits, a walk and logging 3 strikeouts on his way to a win. The Marlins have the following numbers against Logan:

• Bour 0-2
• Dietrich 1-2
• Gordon 1-2
• Prado 0-2
• Realmuto 1-2
• Rojas 0-2
• Suzuki 0-1
• Yelich 0-2

The Mets bats will get a look at Adam Conley who only lasted one inning in his first start of the season allowing 2 hits, 3 ER, 2 walks while striking out 2. Last year he went 4-1 over 15 games, 11 starts logging 67.0 innings with a 3.76 ERA while striking out 59 batters. He pitched 9.1 innings against the Mets last year allowing 5 hits, 1 earned runs while striking out 8. The Mets have the following numbers against Adam:

• Cespedes 0-4, 2 K
• d’Arnaud 0-4
• Lagares 0-4
• Cabrera 0-2, BB
• Flores 1-3, 2B
• Wright 2-3, 2B
• Campbell 0-2
• Granderson 0-1, BB
• Duda 0-1

Let’s Go Mets!

Last night was a rough one for the Mets. Matz allowed 7 runs in the second inning and didn’t finish it as the Mets went on to lose 10-3. It wasn’t all bad though! Wright continued to hit, every ball Cespedes hit was hard, Duda made loud outs. These are things that happen when you’re slumping, hard hits right to people, eventually they have to start falling the other way.

That being said, it will be impressive if either team collects a plethora of hits tonight as Noah Syndergaard goes up against flame thrower Jose Fernandez is the most exciting pitching match-up of this series! Noah Syndergaard (gNoah for gnome night?) picked up a win in his first start of the season tossing 6.0 innings allowing 3 hits, a walk and striking out 9 batters. Oddly enough, Noah didn’t face the Marlins at all last year, so this will be his first career start against them. There are also no batters on the Marlins who have faced Noah while on other teams.

Jose Fernandez struggled in his first start of 2016 allowing 5 ER over 5.2 innings and 5 hits while walking one but somehow striking out 13, because he’s Jose Fernandez. Last year he went 6-1 over 11 starts over 64.2 innings with 79 K’s and a 2.92 ERA. Jose hasn’t faced the Mets since 2013 where he went 1-0 over 4 starts pitching 22.0 innings allowing 4 ER over 12 hits, 27 K’s with a 1.64 ERA. The Mets have the following numbers against Fernandez:

• Duda 2-7, 4 K
• Wright 0-8
• Walker 2-5
• Cabrera 1-3, 2B
• Lagares 1-2, 2B

Let’s Go Mets!

It is easy to be down on the Mets right now: dropping a series against the Phillies, losing a second game to the Phillies (something they did in September of last year), losing games it feels like they should win and worrying about Jacob deGrom’s lat.

It is also easy to remember that tonight the Mets play their 6th game of the season, meaning that they have 147 games to go, and that in 1986 they started the season 2-3 as well. (I’m not a fan though of mixing up correlation/causation/coincidence). Moreover, the Mets are finally going to play a normal week of baseball, and that’s why I’m excited for this week.

Steven Matz will get his first start of the season tonight. He was rock star in his rookie debut last year putting up great numbers on the mound and the plate, paving a road for his grandfather to enter our hearts. Overall in the regular season he went 4-0 over 6 starts and 35.2 innings with 34 K’s and a 2.27 ERA. He then tossed 14.1 innings over three starts with a 3.68 ERA in the postseason, keeping his rookie status intact. He made one start against the Marlins in Miami where he allowed 2 ER over 5.1 innings. It was his first outing coming back from the injury that sidelined him in July. The Marlins have the following numbers against Matz:

• Dee Gordon 1-2
• Prado 1-3
• Yelich 0-3
• Ozuna 1-1
• Mathis 1-2, HR
• Rojas 0-2

The Mets bats will get their first 2016 look at Jarred Cosart who finished hte year last year going 2-5 over 14 games, 13 starts with 69.2 innings and a 4.52 ERA. Like Matz, today will also be Cosart’s 2016 season debut. Cosart had three starts against the Mets, and they were each quite different. In his first start, he allowed 5 ER over 7 hits and 5.0 innings. About two weeks later he shut down the Mets allowing 2 hits, no runs over 8.0 innings (in a game the Mets eventually won). Finally he allowed 1 ER over 5 hits in 4.2 innings of work several months later. The Mets have the following numbers against Jarred:

• Granderson 0-11
• Cabrera 3-9, 2 3B
• Flores 4-10, 2B, HR
• Duda 2-6, 2 2B
• Lagares 3-7
• Cespedes 2-6, HR
• Conforto 2-2, 2 2B

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets will try to split the series with the Phillies this afternoon after dropping last night’s game by the score of 1-0. Bartolo had an excellent start only allowing a solo shot to Ryan Howard and the Mets bats pretty much fell silent from the 5th inning on. The damage could have been worse on the Phillies side, but they managed to leave runners on all night. Ultimately the Phillies bullpen was somehow able to keep the Mets off the path and the Mets hitting woes in the early season continued.

Matt Harvey gets the start this afternoon instead of Steven Matz and Harvey looks to improve on his Opening Night performance where he allowed 4 runs, 3 earned over 5.2 innings while walking 2 and striking out 2 against the Royals. Last year in three starts against the Phillies he went 2-1 over 18.1 innings allowing 20 hits, 10 earned runs (4.91 ERA) and striking out 21 batters. The only two teams Harvey did worse against the in the regular season last year was the Pirates (8 runs in 10.0 innings) and the Giants (7 ER over 6.0 innings). The Phillies have the following numbers against Harvey:

• Howard 3-16, HR, 8 K
• Galvis 3-7
• Herrera 1-9, 4 K
• Ruiz 1-7
• Ruff 0-4
• Blanco 2-3

The Mets bats will get a crack at Jeremy Hellickson who tossed 6.0 innings in his Phillies debut earlier this week while allowing 1 unearned run. Last year he went 9-12 with the Diamondbacks over 27 starts and 146.0 innings with a 4.62 ERA. He picked up a win in his only stat against the Mets last year tossing 6.0 innings allowing 6 hit sand 2 ER. The Mets have the following numbers against Jeremy:

• Granderson 3-17, 2B, HR, 7 K
• De Aza 4-15, 3 2B, 5 K
• Cabrera 2-8
• Cespedes 2-6
• Duda 1-4, 2B
• Walker 2-5, 2B
• Flores 1-3, 2B
• Wright 2-2, 2B

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets had a successful Home Opener yesterday! Jacob deGrom had a strong outing, the Mets had some solid situational hitting (hey Conforto!) and the Mets rolled the Phillies. The worry of the game was about baby deGrom, who didn’t arrive before the game so the Mets were able to stick to the game plan which means Bartolo makes his first start of the season today!

Bartolo basically had the same year last year as he did the year before. He went 14-13 (15-13 the previous year) pitched 194.2 innings with a 4.16 ERA (4.09 the previous year). He led the league in hits last year at 217 (218 the previous year, but that wasn’t the lead). He went 4-1 over 5 starts against the Phillies pitching 32.0 innings with a 2.81 ERA last year striking out 32 batters.  Although this is his first start of the season, he already came out in relief during the first game of the season logging 1.1 innings, 1 hit, no runs, no walks and one strikeout. The Phillies have the following numbers against Bartolo:

• Howard 5-24, 2 HR
• Ruiz 5-18, 2B
• Glavis 4-15, 2B
• Rupp 2-10
• Blanco 3-6, 2B

The Mets bats will get a look at Vincent Velasquez who is 1-1 over 19 games and 7 starts logging 55.2 innings while posting a 4.37 ERA. The Phillies acquired Velasquez in a large trade with the Astros in December where the Astros sent Vincent with Appel, Arauz and Eshelman for J Arauz and Giles. Vincent has never faced the Mets before but De Aza has seen him before and went 1-2.

Let’s Go Mets!

For the first time since the World Series, baseball is back in Queens! After dropping the first game in Kansas City, the Mets were able to rebound and win the second game of the season 2-0 thanks to a dominant performance from Noah Syndergaard and power hitting from Neil Walker. There’s some drama with the Mets this afternoon with Jacob deGrom expecting the birth of his child. If his wife doesn’t go into labor, he makes the start. If she does, Colon makes the start. So I’ll try to prep for both as they go against Eickhoff.

Jacob deGrom followed up his Rookie of the Year performance last year with an even better year. He went 14-8 over 30 starts and 191.0 innings with a 2.54 ERA and 205 K’s. He was 1-0 over three starts against the Phillies last year with a 4.41 ERA over 16.1 innings with 15 K’s. The Phillies have the following numbers against Jacob:

• Howard 4-14, 2 2HR
• Ruiz 1-9
• Galvis 5-8
• Herrera 2-8
• Blanco 0-2
• Rupp 1-1, HR

In case of baby, Bartolo gets the start! Bartolo basically had the same year last year as he did the year before. He went 14-13 (15-13 the previous year) pitched 194.2 innings with a 4.16 ERA (4.09 the previous year). He led the league in hits last year at 217 (218 the previous year, but that wasn’t the lead). He went 4-1 over 5 starts against the Phillies pitching 32.0 innings with a 2.81 ERA last year striking out 32 batters. The Phillies have the following numbers against Bartolo:

• Howard 5-24, 2 HR
• Ruiz 5-18, 2B
• Glavis 4-15, 2B
• Rupp 2-10
• Blanco 3-6, 2B

The Mets bats draw Jerad Eickhoff who made his debut last season for the Phillies at age 24. In 8 starts he had a 3-3 record over 51.0 innings and 49 K’s with a 2.65 ERA. Although he only had 8 starts, 3 of them were against the Mets. His first time he allowed 3 ER, 4 total over 6.0 innings with 6 K’s. Then he allowed 3 ER over 7.0 innings while striking out 4 (and allowing 2 HR). He finally beat the Mets in his last start of the season where he struck out 10 batters and kept the Mets scoreless over 7.0 innings. The Mets have the following numbers against Eickhoff:

• Conforto 4-8, HR
• Cespedes 1-6
• Flores 1-6
• Granderson 1-5, HR
• Colon 1-4

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets look to split the series with the Royals this afternoon after dropping the first game of the season 4-3. After a slow start to the game with a few mental miscues / lucky breaks for the Royals (we’ll get ours too as the season goes on), the Mets were able to mount a small come back but it wasn’t enough to close out the game. Noah Syndergaard will look to lead the Amazin’s against Chris Young as they head into two consecutive off-days before coming back to Queens.

Syndergaard is coming off of a strong rookie season where he went 9-7 over 24 starts and 150.0 innings with a 3.24 ERA and 166 K’s. He rose to new heights in the post-season, throwing high and tight to Escobar and stealing Pedro Martinez’s heart. He pitched 6.0 innings against the Royals in the third game of the series, picking up the win after allowing 3 ER, walking 2 and striking out 6. Overall in the post-season, he pitched 19.0 innings with a 3.32 ERA and 26 K’s. The Royals have the following numbers against Thor:

• Cain 1-3
• Escobar 1-3, 2K
• Gordon 1-2, BB
• Hosmer 0-3
• Moustakas 1-3
• Perez 1-2

The Mets will get a look at former Met Chris Young, who was 11-6 with a 3.06 ERA over 34 games, 18 starts and 123.1 innings for the Royals in 2015. After going 4-9 with a 4.15 ERA over 115.0 innings with the Mets in 2012, Young found himself in Seattle for 2014. He went 12-9 over 165.0 innings with a 3.65 ERA. It was the most he pitched since 2007. He pitched twice against the Mets in the World Series totaling 7.0 innings allowing 2 ER, 2 walks and 7 K’s. He put up a 2.01 ERA in the post season. The Mets have the following numbers against the former Met:

• Cespedes 1-14, 2B
• Wright 1-11, 4 BB
• Granderson 0-4
• Cabrera 0-4
• d’Arnaud 0-3
• Duda 0-3
• Flores 1-1
• Confort0 1-1, 2B
• Worth noting that the Mets have .091 collective BA over 44 AB’s against Young)

Let’s Go Mets!

It’s finally here! Opening Day!

It’s a different Opening Day for the Mets. First off, it’s at night. Second, it’s an interleague game. Then they have this odd break before their second game and are effectively playing an NBA like schedule this week. Whatever, the Mets are ready to roll and more importantly, play baseball.

The Mets are literally picking up where they left off in 2016 opening up in Kansas City against the team that beat them in the World Series. It is also the first Harvey day of the year. For Harvey, it will be his first major league game since starting the ninth inning in the World Series (to this day, I don’t disagree with Collins, I don’t know how you say no at that point). During the regular season last year, Harvey had a 13-8 record over 29 starts and 189.1 innings with a 2.71 ERA and 188 K’s. He pitched 6.0 innings in the first game of the world series allowing 3 ER over 5 hits while striking out 2 and in the second game he pitched 8.0 innings, allowing 2 ER over 5 hits while striking out 9. The Royals have the following numbers against Harvey:

• Cain 2-6
• Escobar 1-7
• Hosmer 1-5, 2B
• Moustakas 2-6
• Perez 1-6
• Gordon 0-3
• Infante 2-4

Edison Volquez was 13-9 last season making 33 starts (34 total games) in the regular season, reaching 200.1 inning with a 3.55 ERA. He matched up against Harvey in each of his two World Series starts. In the first game he allowed 3 ER over 6.0 innings while striking out 3 and in his second start he allowed 2 runs, 1 earned over 6.0 innings while striking out 5 (with 5 walks). The Mets have the following numbers against Edison:

• Wright 3-19
• Granderson 2-13, 2 HR
• Walker 3-17, 2B
• Duda 4-11, 2B
• Cabrera 4-13, HR
• d’Arnaud 1-10
• Cespedes 2-9

Let’s Go Mets!

The Captain. What to expect from the heart and soul of this club? The goal this year will be to get him into 130 games this year. As to be expected, the computers had a lot of problems projecting Wright in terms of declines in performance and figuring out his playing time:

I think the average makes the most amount of sense, especially in playing time (thanks to BP assuming he plays every game in the season). That being said, the power numbers don’t make sense to me. If Wright plays to 460ish AB’s, I think he should have at least 10 homers. The declines in average make sense.

Notes:
Both ZiPS and PECOTA (BP) do not provide AB’s, so those are PA’s instead.
MLB.com and Steamer data can be found here.
ZiPS data can be found here.
ESPN data can be found here.
Baseball America data is from the 2016 Preview Fantasy Guide
Sporting News data is from the 2016 publication of Sporting News Fantasy Baseball
Rotowire data is from the Fantasy Baseball Guide 2016 published by Rotowire
MLB Yearbook data is from the 2016 Major League Baseball Yearbook
PECOTA (BP) data is from the Baseball Prospectus 2016 Annual