213 Miles From Shea

Underrated aspect of the 2016 Mets season? John Mayberry Jr doesn’t factor as a major piece. Mayberry was a major off season signing for the Mets before the start of 2015. He originally was going to play the role of a hitting specialist, getting starts against LHP, pinch hits and starting in the outfield whenever someone starts to slip (Lagares? Cuddyer?). He ended up being terrible for the Mets. There was some concern that he would be a repeat of Chris Young once the Mets let John go, but that didn’t hold true at all. There was an additional concern that this year’s signing of de Aza would be like Mayberry, but then Cespedes.

Did the computers accurately predict the Mayberry mess? Let’s take a look!

PECOTA (BP): 250 PA, 27 R, 12 2B, 7 HR, 27 RBI, .232 BA, .293 OBP
PECOTA (MLB.com): 201 AB, 23 R, 7 HR, 26 RBI, .229 BA, .290 OBP
MLB.com: 133 AB, 11 R, 4 HR, 12 RBI, .226 BA, .295 OBP
ZiPS: 333 PA, 302 AB, 38 R, 17 2B, 10 HR, 40 RBI, .228 BA, .294 OBP
Steamer: 217 PA, 196 AB, 20 R, 28 2B, 9 HR, 22 RBI, .224 BA, .289 OBP
ESPN: .227 BA, 14 R, 4 HR, 13 RBI

Average: 267 PA, 208 AB, 22 R, 19 2B, 6.8 HR, 23 RBI, .227 BA, .292 OBP

(Originally posted here).

His actual 2015 numbers:
119 PA, 110 AB, 8 R, 6 2B, 3 HR, 9 RBI, .164 BA, .227 OBP

Mayberry ended up playing about half the amount than the computers thought he would. His homerun numbers are the only thing that are really close when adjusted for that. His hitting numbers were way down. None of the computers thought he was going to have a real strong season, but they didn’t expect him to struggle as much as he did.

Sean Gilmartin was a rule V draft pick who made his major league debut with the Mets last year, which led to his rookie card being released in the Topps 2015 Updates and Highlights series:

For the first time in a while the Mets won’t be heading into spring training with some form of Daniel Murphy question. Here are some from the previous years! Can he play everyday? (Yes.) Can he play second? (Above Technically Yes). Can he play outfield (Technically Yes). Can he hit? (Yes.) Is he productive on defense (Depends on your definition of productive). Can he be a consistent hitter? (Yes) Can he play third/first (better than 2nd).

Anyway, the hero of the postseason for the Mets signed a multi-year contract with the Nationals this off-season. The Mets acquired Neil Walker for a year and for the Mets that move made the most sense.

Of course, this not why we’re here right now. Were the computers right about Murphy last year? Here’s what they thought:

PECOTA (BP): 614 PA, 70 R, 36 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 53 RBI, 14 SB, .279 BA, .318 OBP
PECOTA (MLB.com): 581 AB, 72 R, 9 HR, 54 RBI, 14 SB, .279 BA, .319 OBP
MLB.com: 595 AB, 82 R, 10 HR, 62 RBI, 15 SB, .291 BA, .331 OBP
ZiPS: 643 PA, 602 AB, 84 R, 35 2B, 3 3B, 10 HR, 70 RBI, 13 SB, .286 BA, .326 OBP
Steamer: 621 PA, 576 AB, 67 R, 34 2B, 2 3B, 9 HR, 55 RBI, 11 SB, .277 BA, .319 OBP
ESPN: .282 BA, 80 R, 10 HR, 61 RBI, 16 SB

Average: 626 PA, 589 AB, 76 R, 35 2B, 2.3 3B, 9.3 HR, 59 RBI, 13.8 SB, .282 BA, .323 OBP

(Originally posted here)

Here’s what Murphy actually did:
538 PA, 56 R, 38 2B, 2 3B, 14 HR, 73 RBI, 2 SB, .281 BA, .322 OBP

Despite playing less than his projections thought he would, he was on track for more runs, actually hit more doubles and homers, had way more RBI and was on pace to hit more triples. He was way down on stolen bases.

So were the projections right? My gut was to say no, he out paced power by quite a bit, but when when power is taken out of the equation, the average of all of the projections came incredibly close to batting average and on-base percentage. So, yes! The projections were correct!

As we approach the official start of Spring Training, it seemed like a good time to feature our skipper, Terry Collins!

Topps Heritage always have a classic design and there’s always been something a little funny about this image. Are they trying to make Collins look old/out of it?

Understatement: 2015 was not easy for our captain.

In the midst of a massive winning streak to start off the season in 2015, David Wright came up injured from a hard slide. A month later, he was diagnosed with spinal stenosis. He eventually came back though and was with the Mets through the stretch run.

Any projection number that wasn’t an average of some sort obviously didn’t meet the mark for David Wright last year, but lets take a look to see if at least his batting average, on-base, etc were close:

PECOTA (BP): 532 PA, 63 R, 27 2B, 2 3B, 15 HR, 63 RBI, 11 SB, .268 BA, .343 OBP
PECOTA (MLB.com): 535 AB, 73 R, 17 HR, 73 RBI, 13 SB, .267 BA, .342 OBP
MLB.com: 524 AB, 74 R, 19 HR, 80 RBI, 13 SB, .288 BA, .364 OBP
ZiPS: 558 PA, 498 AB, 67 R, 28 2B, 3 3B, 13 HR, 70 RBI, 11 SB, .275 BA, .346 OBP
Steamer: 574 PA, 511 AB, 65 R, 29 2B, 2 3B, 15 HR, 64 RBI, 9 SB, .274 BA, .345 OBP
ESPN: .273 BA, 63 R, 16 HR, 63 RBI, 11 SB

Average: 555 PA, 517 AB, 67.5 R, 28 2B, 2.3 3B, 15.8 HR, 68.8 RBI, 11.3 SB, .274 BA, .348 OBP

(Originally posted here)

Actual 2015 Numbers:
174 PA, 152 AB, 24 R, 44 H, 7 2B, 5 HR, 17 RBI, 2 SB, .289 BA, .379 OBP

If you try to adjust for PA, Wright ended up hitting more homers and scoring more runs, under-performed with doubles, RBIs, and stolen bases. He had a higher batting average and OBP.

So were they right? I’m going to take the easy way out and say: impossible to tell. Wright’s actual numbers are a fairly small size compared to what was projected.

?In a couple of weeks, we are going to start to dive deep into 2016 projections from multiple sources to start to think about what the players on the 2016 Mets will be able to do.

However, before we start, its worth to ask, were the projections for 2015? Last year we spent considerable time looking into almost 20 New York Mets, here’s our review schedule to analyze if the projections got it right (posting at 10:00 AM) every morning:

Today: David Wright
2/17- Daniel Murphy
2/18- John Mayberry Jr
2/19- Juan Lagares
2/20- Curtis Granderson
2/21- Wilmer Flores
2/22- Lucas Duda
2/23- Travis d’Arnaud
2/24- Michael Cuddyer
2/25- Noah Syndergaard
2/26- Bobby Parnell
2/27- Jon Niese
2/28- Matt Harvey
2/29- Dillon Gee
3/1- Jeurys Familia
3/2- Jacob deGrom
3/3- Bartolo Colon

With the injury bug that impacted the Mets at the start of the season last year, there were several of these that there were no point in reviewing (in addition to some of the above that make no sense to do either). For example last year we wrote projections for Zack Wheeler, Josh Edgin and Vic Black, all who missed the entire season. Plus, there was Mejia who got injured on opening day, then almost immediately after was suspended for PED use, then suspended again about two months later and then was just banned permanently last week.

Before the Cespedes signing, the Mets had a solid off-season. They lost a major bat in Daniel Murphy but found a reasonable replacement in Neil Walker (more defense, more power, less average), increased depth with Cabrera, signed Bartolo to round out the rotation and later become part of the pen, and then got Bastardo on steal deal. The Mets would have been good at that point, at least an improved team from the start of the 2015 season.

In other off-seasons of Mets baseball, that probably would have been a solid “B” grade. However, the Mets just made it to the World Series, and have 3 more years of control on all of their young arms. Not getting a major bat to some degree was inexcusable. If there ever was a time to go all in, it is the next three seasons.

Cespedes does so much for the team outside of just being the important bat in the middle of the lineup. First, he pushes Lagares and de Aza to become late inning guys / pinch hitters. The Mets now have a solid starting 3 in the outfield with a reasonable late inning defensive replacement. Pinch hitting before would have been some combination of Flores/Cabrera which ever OF wasn’t starting, Kirk and Campbell. Now our pinch hitting situation involves all major league players.

Cespedes also changes the composition of the lineup completely. He pushes Duda out of cleanup, and forces Conforto into the 7th spot. Without Cespedes, Duda is up to 4th, d’Arnaud has to hit 5th, de Aza is probably 7th with Cabrera still 8th. On days when Lagares would start, the Mets would then have two 8 spots in their lineup with Lagares and Cabrera going back to back. Cespedes stretches out this lineup in a much needed way.

Basically, Cespedes makes all of the smaller moves done this off-season into smaller, role moves. Like they should be. The Mets became a chore to watch in June of last year when they kept running out their best pitchers followed by a AAA lineup.

This team just became so much more exciting to watch in 2016, and it’s because of an impact bat.

Tomorrow we’ll discuss about what is happening in Queens that Flores cried, Wheeler called and Cespedes walked away from at least 25 million more.

The Mets need a win tonight as they go into an elimination game for the World Series. Last night the Mets let the game slip away after a poor 8th inning in pretty much every facet of baseball. That being said, the Mets just need to take this one day at a time and go after the Royals again tonight.

Matt Harvey will make his second start of the series. In the opener, he allowed 3 ER over 6.0 innings while striking out 2 (although you could make an argument about the first run really due to a misplay in the outfield on a well struck ball). Syndergaard usually learns from Harvey, but I’m hoping tonight that Harvey learned from Syndergaard about the importance of being yourself on the mound. So far in the post season Harvey has tossed 18.2 innings allowing 8 runs, 7 earned, a 3.38 ERA, while striking out 18 batters with 6 walks. The Royals have the following numbers against him:

• Rios 1-5
• Cain 1-3
• Escoar 1-3, HR
• Hosmer 0-1
• Morales 0-3
• Moustakas 1-3
• Perez 1-3
• Zobrist 1-3, 2B

The Mets bats will get another look at Edinson Volquez tonight. He had a very similar line to Harvey in game 1 allowing 6 hits, 3 ER over 6.0 innings while striking out 3. In the post-season he has pitched 22.2 innings over 4 starts allowing 11 ER (4.37 ERA) while walking 13 and striking out 18. When the Mets have been out their worst this series has been when they get themselves out quickly. A strength of this team all year has been working counts and making pitchers work. The Mets have the following numbers against Volquez:

• Murphy 7-18, 2B
• Wright 2-16
• K Johnson 4-15, 2B
• Cuddyer 4-11
• Granderson 1-11, HR
• Duda 4-11, 2B
• Uribe 3-10, 2B
• d’Arnaud 1-7
• Lagares 3-8, 2B

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets struck back! After dropping the first two games in Kansas City, the Mets came out strong in the first game in Queens. Thor started the game with a high and inside pitch and David Wright followed with a two run shot. Things looked rough in the second inning, but the Mets rebounded and then took over as they marched to a 9-3 win. Tonight the kid from Long Island gets the start against the former Met, Chris Young.

Steven Matz in the regular season went 4-0 over 6 starts and 35.2 innings with a 2.27 ERA. He is the game 4 man for the Mets this post season. In his game 4 against the Dodgers he pitched 5.0 innings allowing 3 ER and in his second game 4 against the Cubs he allowed 1 ER over 4.2 innings. Both starts he walked 2 and both starts he struck out 4. He has never faced the Royals in a major league game or anyone on their roster in a major league game.

The Mets draw the giant in Chris Young, who pitched a strong outing in the first game of the World Series. Chris Young has a ridiculous release point which is a strength his first time through the order, so here’s hoping that the Mets still remember what this looks like from Tuesday night. On the regular season he is 11-6 over 34 games, 18 starts, with a 3.06 ERA. He pitched in the first ALDS game from the 3rd inning to the 6th allowing 1 ER. He hten started the 4th ALCS game allowing 2 ER over 4.2 innings. Finally, as noted before, he pitched three scoreless innings against the Mets on Tuesday. The Mets have the following numbers against Chris:

• Cespedes 1-12, 2B
• Wright 1-10
• Uribe 2-11, 2B
• K Johnson 2-11
• Cuddyer 2-5, 2 2B
• Murphy 0-3
• Granderson 0-3

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets bring the series home today after a rough start in Kansas City. After a 14 inning heartbreaker, the Mets could not get anything going against Cueto in Game 2, leading to a 2-0 series lead for Kansas City. While it’s easy to get down by this, the 1986 Mets were the same, losing the first game by 1 run and the second game by 6 runs. All it takes is a win and we’re back in this, so let’s do this!

Tonight Noah Syndergaard takes the mound. He’s 9-7 over 24 starts with a 3.24 ERA this season over 150.0 innings. In the post-season he has allowed 3 ER over 6.1 innings, pitched a scoreless/hitless inning of relief, and then allowed 1 ER over 5.2 innings against Chicago. He’s also won the heart of Pedro Martinez, and I forever have an image of him holding up the hammer yelling “THOOOORRRRRR” on those terrible TBS pre-game shows. Not surprisingly, Thor has never faced the Royals in a major league game and the only player he has seen in a major league game will not be batting tonight (Johnny Cueto 0-2, I mean I guess he could get an AB, but I really, really doubt it).

On the other side, the Mets bats draw Yordano Ventura who was 13-8 in the regular season over 28 games and 163.1 innings with a 4.08 ERA. His first post-season start this year lasted 2.0 innings as he allowed 3 ER over 2.0 innings. He then started game 4 of the ALDS and allowed 3 ER over 5.0. In game 2 against Toronto he allowed 3 ER over 5.1 and he finally had a good game in game 6 against Toronto allowing 1 ER over 5.1 innings. Ventura has never faced the Mets and the only Met that has seen him in a major league game is Cespedes who is 1-7 against him.

Let’s Go Mets!