213 Miles From Shea

The hero of last year signed a 1 to 3 year deal with the Mets this off-season, and all is right in the world. Really though, Cespedes and the Mets are made for each other. Cespedes needs the atmosphere that his teammates and this city can provide. We need Cespedes for his power. His bat completely changes the lineup in terms of protection, stretching power up and down the lineup, etc. The question is, what will he do next year:

This looks like a dip in his power from last year, but he also went on that incredible streak last year that statistically is difficult for him to repeat. That being said, 27-28 homers feels like a very fair assessment of what he can do. Going through the power data, it looks like ZiPS only has him at 30 because of how many AB’s they expect him to get (ZiPS is always on the higher side of PAs). Steamer seems to suggest a lot of pop as they are down lower in the ABs but still at 26 jacks.

For Cespedes, I would go with the mid to higher projections more than other players. With a player with Cespedes style profile, the projections are usually a bit conservative (this happens with players who hit more than 25 homers a year).

Notes:
Both ZiPS and PECOTA (BP) do not provide AB’s, so those are PA’s instead.
MLB.com and Steamer data can be found here.
ZiPS data can be found here.
ESPN data can be found here.
Baseball America data is from the 2016 Preview Fantasy Guide
Sporting News data is from the 2016 publication of Sporting News Fantasy Baseball
Rotowire data is from the Fantasy Baseball Guide 2016 published by Rotowire
MLB Yearbook data is from the 2016 Major League Baseball Yearbook
PECOTA (BP) data is from the Baseball Prospectus 2016 Annual

I unfairly imagine Astrubal Cabrera as a turkey sandwich. I want an italian sub, or maybe something with a spicy sauce and a more interesting meat, but I know the best thing for me is a turkey sandwich, way less sodium. Cabrera wasn’t a sexy signing. Without Cespedes, the Cabrera signing feels underwhelming but signing Cespedes takes the pressure off of needing a huge bat from shortstop, so here we are Cabrera. He has less power than Flores, hits for way more consistency, it just more consistent in general and a better defender. He is what we need at short: someone dependable and consistent.

Here’s what the different projection sources feel that Cabrera can do:

None of this is really surprising, and with the exception of a few outlets above, most projection sources feel Cabera is going to perform about the same with a bit of pop, real average, average and an average OBP.

I am a bit surprised at Steamer and MLB Yearbook in terms of at bats. Out of everyone who can play short, I feel Cabrera will be the closest to the AB’s of a fulltime player. With Wright playing about 130 games, Flores will get 30 games in there, which will decrease the amount of games where Wright and Flores plays on the left side than Wright and Cabrera.

Notes:
Both ZiPS and PECOTA (BP) do not provide AB’s, so those are PA’s instead.
MLB.com and Steamer data can be found here.
ZiPS data can be found here.
ESPN data can be found here.
Baseball America data is from the 2016 Preview Fantasy Guide
Sporting News data is from the 2016 publication of Sporting News Fantasy Baseball
Rotowire data is from the Fantasy Baseball Guide 2016 published by Rotowire
MLB Yearbook data is from the 2016 Major League Baseball Yearbook
PECOTA (BP) data is from the Baseball Prospectus 2016 Annual

Over the last couple of weeks we have reviewed the 2015 projections for the Mets for accuracy based on the actual results of the 2015 season. Today, we will start to go through the 2016 Mets and present projections from up to 9 different sources and taking an average. The schedule:

Today – Asdrubal Cabrera
3/5 – Yoenis Cespedes
3/6 – Michael Conforto
3/7 – Travis d’Arnaud
3/8 – Alejandro de Aza
3/9 – Lucas Duda
3/10 – Wilmer Flores
3/11 – Curtis Granderson
3/12 – Dilson Herrera
3/13 – Juan Lagares
3/14 – Kevin Plawecki
3/15 – Ruben Tejada
3/16 – Neil Walker
3/17 – David Wright
3/18 – Bartolo Colon
3/19 – Jacob deGrom
3/20 – Jeurys Familia
3/21 – Sean Gilmartin
3/22 – Erik Goeddel
3/23 – Matt Harvey
3/24 – Steven Matz
3/25 – Hansel Robles
3/26 – Noah Syndergaard
3/27 – Zack Wheeler
3/28 – Addison Reed
3/29 – Antonio Bastardo
3/30 – Logan Verrett
3/31 – Dario Alvarez

This is my third year of doing this, and I’ve made some improvements:
– I’m using an HTML editor so the stats come up as a table and are easier to scan
– This is the most projection sources I’ve used, up by 4-5 from last year (depending on the player)

Bartolo Colon is a hero on this staff of aces. His arm allowed him to absorb innings (he’s below 200 for the regular season only due to the Mets going with a 6 man rotation at different points for the season) and he can do whatever the Mets need him to do. Could the computers predict how he would perform in 2015? Let’s take a look:

PECOTA (BP): 10-10, 28 G, 175 IP, 123 K, 29 BB, 1.16 WHIP, 3.54 ERA
PECOTA (MLB.com): 9-9, 144 IP, 100 K, 41 BB, 1.16 WHIP, 3.63 ERA
MLB.com: 10-13, 193 IP, 137 K, 32 BB, 1.23 WHIP, 3.96 ERA
ZiPS: 26 G, 167.2 IP, 115 K, 27 BB, 4.03 ERA
Steamer: 9-10, 27 G, 163 IP, 113 K, 27 BB, 4.17 ERA
ESPN: 10 W, 122 K, 1.23 WHIP, 4.00 ERA

Average: 9.6 – 10.5, 27 G, 168 IP, 127 K, 31.2 BB, 1.20 WHIP, 3.89 ERA

(Original Post Here)

And his actual 2015 numbers:
14-13, 33 G, 31 GS, 194.2 IP, 1.24 WHIP, 4.16 ERA, 3.87 FIP

Colon pitched way more than the computers thought he would, which I’m wondering if that is the computers trying to factor Gee into the rotation with Niese, Wheeler, Harvey, Syndergaard, deGrom and Matz. He’s the only pitcher outside of Parnell who performed worse than his projections, yet, as a bit of a preview to next season, the computers think Colon is going to do better in 2016 than his 2015 projections let alone his actual 2015 numbers.

Jacob deGrom ended 2014 with the rookie of the year award. At the start of 2014, he was behind Montero on the depth chart, but then blossomed overnight. Would he repeat in 2015? Here is what the computers thought before the season:

PECOTA (BP): 8-9, 25 G, 147.2 IP, 126 K, 42 BB, 1.19 WHIP, 3.47 ERA
PECOTA (MLB.com): 9-8, 144 IP, 121 K, 41 BB, 1.20 WHIP, 3.56 ERA
MLB.com: 12-8, 180 IP, 161 K, 49 BB, 1.17 WHIP, 3.15 ERA
ZiPS: 29 G, 174.1 IP, 159 K, 53 BB, 3.30 ERA
Steamer: 10-10, 29 G, 163.0 IP, 145 K, 52 BB, 3.92 ERA
ESPN: 12-9, 177 K, 1.18 WHIP, 3.25 ERA

Average: 10.2 – 8.8, 27.6 G, 161.2 IP, 1.19 WHIP, 3.44 ERA

(Original post here)

And his actual 2015 numbers:
14-8, 30 G, 191 IP, 0.98 WHIP, 2.54 ERA.

The computers thought deGrom’s 2.69 ERA was not repeatable in 2015. The lowest ERA he was projected to get was 3.15 MLB.com, which generally projects in the player’s favor. Instead deGrom went out and put up a 2.54 ERA, thus cementing the Mets rotation as a staff of aces. The computers wanted him to have a sophomore slump, but that was not in the cards.

Our closer! At the start of the year, the question was “would Mejia be the closer the entire season?”. There was the thought that the Mets might do a closer by committee between Familia and Mejia. The most likely thought before the season was to start off with Mejia and then see how it goes. Familia was the one who was projected to have better stuff but Mejia had success the previous year. Then Mejia failed three drug tests and Familia put together one of the best seasons a Met closer has ever had. How much of this did the computers see at the start of last year? First, here are the 2015 projections:

PECOTA (BP): 3-3, 1 SV, 24 G, 58.2 IP, 55 K, 27 BB, 1.34 WHIP, 4.01 ERA
PECOTA (MLB.com): 3-3, 7 SV, 66 IP, 55 K, 28 BB, 1.35 WHIP, 4.05 ERA
MLB.com: 3-2, 0 SV, 72 IP, 68 K, 27 BB, 1.24 WHIP, 3.25 ERA
ZiPS: 65 G, 65.1 IP, 63 K, 28 BB, 3.17 ERA
Steamer: 3-3, 6 SV, 55 G, 55 IP, 56 K, 23 BB, 3.55 ERA
ESPN: 5-3, 0 SV, 71 K, 1.33 WHIP, 3.00 ERA

Average: 3.4-2.8, 2.8 SV, 48 IP, 63.1 IP, 61.3 K, 26.6 BB, 1.32 WHIP, 3.51 ERA

(Originally Posted Here)

And his actual 2015 stats:
2-2, 43 Saves, 76 G, 78 IP, 1.00 WHIP, 1.85 ERA.

And of course the answer is probably what you thought: no, the computers had no idea about Familia. The saves are understandable, they were operating under the idea of Mejia. The work load seemed a little light, but I guess the computers didn’t account for how Collins uses a bullpen. Ultimately though, Familia just performed a lot better than anyone thought. His WHIP was ridiculous which led to a ridiculous ERA (and a more down to Earth FIP of 2.76).

You know what feels like ages ago? Dillon Gee on the Mets. His story with the Mets is essentially the accelerated Jon Niese story. Gee was moved the bullpen before the season even started, which caused some controversy. He was then put back into the rotation thanks to Wheeler needing surgery. Gee fell to injury himself and when he came back, his pitching just wasn’t that good. The kids on the farm came up and Gee went out west for the resto of the season. He now finds himself with the World Champion Kansas City Royals. Could the projections in 2015 predict his struggles? Let’s take a look at his projections:

PECOTA (BP): 7-8, 22 G, 132.2 IP, 107 K, 39 BB, 1.22 WHIP, 3.90 ERA
MLB.com: 6-6, 110 IP, 77 K, 34 BB, 1.26 WHIP, 3.93 ERA
PECOTA (MLB.com): 7-7, 121 IP, 98 K, 36 BB, 1.21 WHIP, 3.79 ERA
ZiPS: 23 G, 142 IP, 107 K, 40 BB, 4.18 ERA
Steamer: 5-7, 17 G, 96 IP, 70 K, 26 BB, 4.35 ERA
ESPN: 6-5, 73 K, 1.22 WHIP, 3.86 ERA

Average: 6.2-6.6, 20.6 G, 120.1 IP, 88.6 K, 35 BB, 1.23 WHIP, 4.00 ERA

(Originally posted here)

His actual numbers:
0-3, 39.2 innings, 1.66 WHIP, 5.90 ERA

The projections pretty much missed the mark on all cylinders with Gee. They way overestimated his playing time, mainly because they underestimated the playing time of the other young members of the staff and then there was his WHIP. Gee just couldn’t get it together, especially once he came back from injury. This isn’t really a failure on the projection software but the unfortunate reality of Gee’s life last season.

Last year I looked at every single Matt Harvey projection that I could find probably like every other Mets fan. Would we get old Matt Harvey back? It felt like the entire season was up to how Harvey would perform, which isn’t too far from the truth. Let’s take a look at those 2015 Harvey projections and compare it to his performance:

PECOTA (BP): 2-2, 7 G, 39 IP, 40 K, 11 BB, 1.09 WHIP, 2.85 ERA
PECOTA (MLB.com): 10-8, 151.1 IP, 152 K, 43 BB, 1.09 WHIP, 2.91 ERA
MLB.com: 10-7, 170.0 IP, 191 K, 37 BB, 1.08 WHIP, 3.07 ERA
ZiPS: 25 G, 153 IP, 140 K, 49 BB, 3.12 ERA
Steamer: 9-7, 23 G, 144 IP, 158 K, 39 BB, 3.00 ERA
ESPN: 11-6, 172 K, 1.10 WHIP, 3.04 ERA

Average: 8.4-6, 131.3 IP, 142 K, 35.8 BB, 1.09 WHIP, 2.998 ERA

(Original posted here)

And in 2015 he put up these numbers:
13-8, 29 G, 189.1 IP, 1.02 WHIP, 2.71 ERA

Harvey was great! His pitching numbers are higher than a lot of people thought because pitching limits were sort of enforced but sort of not. His ERA was better than any individual projection. His WHIP was accurately predicted by just about everyone which is actually amazing. As a quick preview to a later article, the projections are expecting much of the same for 2016.

Jon Niese started the season off as a starter and found his way in an out of the rotation around Steven Matz. Before being traded, the post-season previewed one possible universe for him in 2016 where he would have been a lefty specialist out of the pen. Ultimately the Mets traded him at the end of the season. The long-time Met had been part of the rotation for a while with fairly consistent numbers. The question is, did the computers accurately predict Niese in 2015? Let’s see what the computers said last year:

PECOTA (BP): 8-10, 26 G, 155 IP, 128 K, 40 BB, 1.23 WHIP, 3.85 ERA
PECOTA (MLB.com): 10-11, 171.0 IP, 139 K, 43 BB, 1.23 WHIP, 3.89 ERA
MLB.com: 10-12, 183.0 IP, 132 K, 48 BB, 1.29 WHIP, 3.69 ERA
ZiPS: 28 G, 171.2 IP, 132 K, 46 BB, 3.77 ERA
Steamer: 9-11, 29 G, 173.0 IP, 125 K, 47 BB, 4.07 ERA
ESPN: 11-9, 140 K, 1.23 WHIP, 3.72 ERA

Average: 9.6-10.6, 27.7 G, 170.2 IP, 132.7 K, 44.8 BB, 1.25 WHIP, 3.83 ERA

(Originally posted here)

And here are is 2015 numbers:
9-10, 33 G, 29 GS, 176.2 IP, 1.40 WHIP, 4.13 ERA

The computers pretty much nailed Niese’s win-loss record for last year, and the amount of work he put it in. They thought he would have a better WHIP and ERA. Niese allowed a lot of hits and walks last year. There were times that I was surprised his his earned runs were so low (this is partially why his FIP is higher than his ERA).

This was a season was a missed opportunity for Parnell. He was coming off of Tommy John and into a bullpen over the summer that just found out it would be without Mejia for the whole season. It’s difficult to project how a pitcher will be able to perform after Tommy John, so lets see how Parnell did:

PECOTA (BP): 2-1, 15 SV, 40 G, 39.2 IP, 37 K, 11 BB, 1.14 WHIP, 2.97 ERA
PECOTA (MLB.com): 2-2, 3 SV, 40 IP, 38 K, 12 BB, 1.15 WHIP, 3.15 ERA
MLB.com: 2-2, 14 SV, 42 IP, 34 K, 14 BB, 1.29 WHIP, 3.49 ERA
ZiPS: 47 G, 44.2 IP, 37 K, 13 BB, 3.43 ERA
Steamer: 3-3, 10 SV, 65 G, 65 IP, 60 K, 21 BB, 3.37 ERA
ESPN: 2-3, 27 SV, 46 K, 1.10 WHIP, 2.52 ERA

Average: 2.2-2.2, 13.8 SV, 50.7 G, 46 IP, 42 K, 14.2 BB, 1.17 WHIP, 3.16 ERA

(Originally posted here)

2015 Stats:
2-4, 30 G, 24 IP, 4.9 K/9, 1.96 WHIP, 6.38 ERA

Look, no one could really predict how much Parnell was going to struggle. Based on when he came back, he could have potentially hit the games pitched/innings projected but his problems on the mound forced the Mets to go find someone else to take over the setup role.