213 Miles From Shea

The Mets and Braves face off in the rubber game tonight if the ran moves out in time for the first Harvey Day of the year. Last night the Mets lost their first game of the season falling 3-1 in extra innings. The Mets received a strong start from their starter for the second straight day but also for the second straight day, the Mets couldn’t do much against the opposing starting pitcher (who yesterday was a folk hero Bartolo Colon). Robles allowed a run in the 7th to bring it to 1-1 and the Mets go lucky on a base running blunder it wasn’t 2-1. Eventually Montero would allow two runs in the top of the 12th and the bats couldn’t bring them back.

Tonight Harvey looks to right last year, although it is widely understood that Harvey may not be Harvey until late May. Last year he was 4-10 with a 4.86 ERA over 17 games and 92.2 innings before going out with a significant surgery. He was 1-2 against the Braves last year over 4 games and 22.2 innings with a 4.37 ERA and 17 K’s. The Braves have the following numbers against Harvey:

• Freeman 3-18, 3 2B
• Markakis 3-13, 2B
• Phillips 3-12, 2 2B
• Peterson 3-10, 2 2B
• Inciarte 3-9, 2B
• Suzuki 0-7
• Kemp 1-6, HR

Jamie Garcia will make his 2017 debut and his first start as a member of the Braves. Garcia has been with the Cardinals since his rookie year in 2008 before being traded in December for a prospect package including former Met prospect John Gant. Garcia was 10-13 over 32 games and 30 starts with a 4.67 ERA and a 171.2 innings of work. He was 0-2 in two games against the Mets last year allowing 9 runs, 8 earned over 9.0 innings. The Mets have the following numbers against Jaime:

• Bruce 11-49, 2B, HR
• Reyes 6-19, 2B
• Flores 3-7, 2B, HR
• Cabrera 3-5, 2 2B
• Cespedes 0-5
• Walker 1-5, 2B
• Duda 1-2, HR

Let’s Go Mets!

The big league club opened up on Monday and today the full season minor league teams will get started!

Las Vegas will open up in El Paso.
Binghamton will open their first season as the Rumble Ponies at New Hampshire.
St. Lucie will open up at home against Palm Beach.
Columbia will also open at home against Augusta.

Good luck to all the Mets minor league players as they continue their journey to Queens!

Opening Day was fun, so let’s do it again (161 more times)! The Mets beat the Braves in the season opener on Monday 6-0 thanks to strong pitching and a huge rally in the 7th inning. The Mets were sticking to the script the first 6 innings of the game: unstoppable Syndergaard and not scoring against Teheran. Once Julio left the game though, the Mets were able to make the Braves bullpen work, putting up a 6 spot thanks to a bases clearing double by Lucas Duda.

Jacob deGrom looks to keep it going as he returns to the mound for his first official game since injury early last September. He ended the season last year 7-8 over 24 games and 148.0 innings with a 3.04 ERA. If you take the last three starts out of the year though, where he was showing signs of injury, his ERA is a 2.29. Last year he went 1-1 over 3 starts against the Braves pitching 19.2 innings with a 1.83 ERA. The Braves had the following numbers against Jacob:

• Freddie Freeman 4-19, 2B, HR, 7 K
• Jace Peterson 3-15, 2B
• Nick Markakis 6-15, HR
• Ender Inciarte 4-10, 2B
• Matt Kemp 2-11, 2B
• Julio Teheran 3-6 (I know he’s Monday’s Opening Day Starter, interesting stats are interesting)
• Brandon Phillips 0-3

Fan favorite Bartolo Colon will be making his first start as a Brave tonight. Big Sexy got a roar from the crowd Monday afternoon and should get another one tonight. He was loved by the fans, loved by his teammates and was a tremendously (good) consistent pitcher with us. Last year he was 15-8 over 34 games and 33 starts pitching 191.2 innings with a 3.43 ERA. The last time he faced the Mets was way back in 2011 where he allowed no runs over 5 hits in a win. The Mets have the following numbers against Colon:

• Asdrubal Cabrera 1-17, 2B, 5 K
• Curtis Granderson 4-13, 2 HR
• Jose Reyes 5-12
• Neil Walker 3-10, 2B, HR
• Rene Rivera 2-5, 2B, HR
• Jay Bruce 1-5, HR
• Yoenis Cespedes 2-3, 2B
• Lucas Duda 1-2

Let’s Go Mets!

Welcome Back!

The Mets and Braves start the 2017 season this afternoon after a fairly long spring training courtesy of the World Baseball Classic. And no, it’s not deja vu you’re experiencing, the Mets are running out a nearly identical roster to the 2016 club, which is fine because on paper, the 2016 club was built to win.

Most Opening Days, I write about optimism and the joy of not knowing what is going to happen, and that’s what makes baseball great. Those points still hold true but for a second straight season we approach Opening Day more mission based. Winning is an expectation. There’s a swagger and slight arrogance that comes with that feeling which I believe will make baseball this season in Queens a lot of fun to watch.

Noah Syndergaard will be starting for the Mets. Last year he went 14-9 over 31 games, 30 starts, and 183.2 innings with a 2.60 ERA as one of the Mets best pitchers. He walked 43 in that stretch and struck out 218. Surprisingly, he faced the Braves only once last year and it was a game to forget as he allowed 5 ER over 3.2 innings and 8 hits while walking 3 and striking out 5. The Braves have the following numbers on Syndergaard:

• Matt Kemp 1-11, RBI, 4 K
• Brandon Phillips 3-10, 2 K
• Nick Markakis 3-6, BB
• Jace Peterson 1-4, RBI, BB
• Freddie Freeman 3-6, 2B, HR, 4 RBI, 2K
• Swanson 2-2, RBI

The Mets bats will draw the ace of the Atlanta rotation, Julio Teheran. Teheran put together a great 2013 campaign and followed it up with an All-Star year in 2014 before regressing in 2015. He came back to All-Star form last year posting a 7-10 record over 30 starts and 188.0 innings with a 3.21 ERA while walking 41, and striking out 167. The Mets were part of the reason while he an All-Star last year. He went 2-0 over 4 stargs against the Mets pitching 30.0 innings allowing only 3 runs (0.90 ERA) while walking 3 and striking out 18. Beating Julio today will start a nice narrative to the 2017 season. The Mets have the following numbers against Teheran:

• Curtis Granderson 6-26, 2B, 2 HR, 7 BB
• Lucas Duda 7-23, 2 2B, 2 HR, 4 BB
• Travis d’Arnaud 2-20, BB, K
• Wilmer Flores 3-19, HR
• Jay Bruce 3-20, 2 HR
• Neil Walker 2-17
• Jose Reyes 2-13, 3B
• Asdrubal Cabrera 4-12, 2 2B
• Yoenis Cespedes 3-12, 5 K

Let’s Go Mets!

It took over a month but we are finally done! Here is our last stat projection, Rene Rivera.

There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation.

Let’s be blunt. Rene isn’t playing for his offense. He hits bombs. He doesn’t hit anything else really. He’s not expected to. His bombs are really bonus.

Rivera has great defense and is super important to the stability of the rotation. The hope is the rest of the lineup can carry more of a lift when he plays.

Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)

Notes:
Article Written on 3/14, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data

We wrapped up all the pitcher projections and now we can move on to the hitters!

There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for David Wright:

I pulled the data for this article way back on 2/17 and way back then things were looking ok with Wright. The question was, who lead off when Wright plays? Do they find someplace else for Reyes. Then the Wright throwing issue came to light and I’m not really sure what to write here

Most projections see a significant cut in Wright playing time this year. No one is working harder to get back to the playing field than David Wright. My thoughts at this point is anything the Mets get from Wright is gravy this year. That being said, it was nice to see his projected average being 25 points higher than his actual average from last year.

Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)

Notes:
Article Written on 3/14, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data

We wrapped up all the pitcher projections and now we can move on to the hitters!

There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Jay Bruce:

Jay Bruce. The subject of frustration for many Mets fans this off-season. It’s been repeated all over the place this off-season that Jay Bruce is the poster child for the old school vs new school debates on how to tell if a player is a star or not. He’s consistently a 30 home run guy! he also has a poor average and a poor on base percentage. Plus, he’s blocking Michael Conforto.

The projections see his power taking a step back, but not his playing time. It’s going to be interesting to see how Terry handles Bruce this season. This is being written on 3/14, so answer is not clear yet.

Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)

Notes:
Article Written on 3/14, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data

We wrapped up all the pitcher projections and now we can move on to the hitters!

There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Jose Reyes:

Jose Reyes turned the Mets season around last year. The team was struggling to put runs across the plate and Reyes sparked the lineup again. He wasn’t the same as the Reyes of the past but it was still pretty good. The projections put him at about double the amount of AB’s, so not quite a whole season, putting up reduced power numbers compared to last year but similar slash numbers.

Reyes does present an interesting problem for the Mets. When he plays, he is the logical lead off hitter. When he doesn’t play, the Mets don’t really know who should lead off. This will increase his playing time throughout the season and probably see him at different positions.

Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)

Notes:
Article Written on 3/14, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data

We wrapped up all the pitcher projections and now we can move on to the hitters!

There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Wilmer Flores:

Wilmer finally had the breakout season last year that were hoping for. It was just hard to see it under the uneven playing time, injuries and a constantly changing lineups. In 300 or AB’s though, he slammed 16 homers and hit .267. He is projected to hit just as well next year with slightly lower power in about the same AB’s.

The good news for the Mets is Flores is the super utility player they need. The bad news for the Mets is so Jose Reyes. And the outfield is constantly sliding around too, so the lineup will be constantly changing, but this seems to be where baseball is heading anyway.

It would be nice to see if Flores can do this again.

Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)

Notes:
Article Written on 3/14, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data

We wrapped up all the pitcher projections and now we can move on to the hitters!

There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Juan Lagares:

The Mets have 4 everyday outfielders. In pretty much every other universe that sentences is the season finisher for Juan Lagares except none of the Mets outfield options are actually center fielders. As such, Juan will probably see quite a bit of playing time at the end of games.

His numbers pretty much project close to his career average which is about 15 points better than last year in the average department.

The Mets season won’t be make or break on Juan Lagares batting ability. Their season will be hurt though if he cant move in the field as well as he done previous seasons.

Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)

Notes:
Article Written on 3/14, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data